Strategy/Tactics in a war in the Pacific in the 2020s
Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:58 pm
Hi,
I am planning to make a series of scenarios set in the Asia-Pacific region in the 2020s. The story goes something like this-
The COVID-19 pandemic never occurred in this world. A major economic crisis in 2026 has caused tensions to rise between China and the West. Meanwhile Taiwan, facing a seemingly invincible Chinese rocket force, decides to buy IRBMs from the US. China decides to initiate a quarantine of Taiwan, but the US has no intention of backing down. North Korea plans to take advantage of this situation to attempt to reunify Korea by force, while tensions over Kashmir are going to result in Pakistan and India becoming part of the conflict (I haven't worked out the details yet).
I wanted to consult with people on the forum about certain strategies and tactics (about whether they would be feasible in real life, what the challenges would be, as well as seeing if anyone has any other ideas) before I implement them in the scenarios/story.
First, I have been planning for the Chinese to use asymmetric tactics in the opening phase of the war. Namely, landing special forces on Okinawa via submarine to destroy ABM sites prior to the first strikes and/or doing the same with spies and smuggled weapons. Both would use mortars, and if the site is isolated (like some of the Japanese ones on Okinawa) follow up by actually physically infiltrating the base. The second thing is laying mines outside of the naval bases at Sasebo, Yokosuka and perhaps ones on the US West Coast using cargo ships entering port at night. The ABM site one seems plausible but the second one might not work. Do these ideas seem feasible (within a scenario I am trying to make reasonably realistic/plausible). Another more extreme idea I have is to have spies sneak weapons (ATGMs or unguided anti-tank rockets) into the US or Japan and then attack ships as they sortie from port.
Next is more of a technical question. I am curious if there appears to be any indication as to how China plans to go about replacing older fighters like the J-8 and J-7, which as of 2020 are still in service, with newer fighters. Are the J-10 and J-11 meant to fill any specific role? Or are they just going to deploy them "wherever", or have a general balance of aircraft in each theater as opposed to deliberately swapping J-8s with J-11s and J-7s with J-10s. If this is not known, is there any need to do that? I ask as on the other hand, it seems pretty clear that H-6Gs are being replaced by H-6Js and H-6H/Ms are being replaced by H-6Ks, which makes making a realistic hypothetical order of battle easier.
Third, what is the purpose of the new American IRBM in the Pacific? In Europe it is rather clear that is is meant to counter Russian intermediate range nuclear weapons, but in the Pacific it seems a bit less clear. The "new" missile threat from China mainly comes from conventional ballistic missiles. It seems unrealistic for the US to try to build a similar number of conventional IRBMs as China has, not so much because of a lack of capability but because there aren't many good places to base the missiles. China can deploy its large conventional ballistic missile arsenal because the vast nature of the country gives plenty of space for the TELs to hide. There is no such luxury in Japan or South Korea, while the Philippines is politically unreliable. Conventional IRBMs would not be very effective as a counter or deterrent against Chinese conventional missiles unless used in large numbers, so it seems like this use is unlikely. Having the new missile use nuclear weapons is also problematic. Japan can not legally allow nuclear weapons on their soil, while despite talks of bringing back US tactical nuclear weapons, South Korea still hasn't shown much interest in having American nuclear weapons there. The Philippines is, as stated before, politically unreliable. Even if the Japanese or South Korean government did "bend" deploying such missiles would draw huge public backlash. So I am unsure what role such a missile should play in the story.
I am planning to make a series of scenarios set in the Asia-Pacific region in the 2020s. The story goes something like this-
The COVID-19 pandemic never occurred in this world. A major economic crisis in 2026 has caused tensions to rise between China and the West. Meanwhile Taiwan, facing a seemingly invincible Chinese rocket force, decides to buy IRBMs from the US. China decides to initiate a quarantine of Taiwan, but the US has no intention of backing down. North Korea plans to take advantage of this situation to attempt to reunify Korea by force, while tensions over Kashmir are going to result in Pakistan and India becoming part of the conflict (I haven't worked out the details yet).
I wanted to consult with people on the forum about certain strategies and tactics (about whether they would be feasible in real life, what the challenges would be, as well as seeing if anyone has any other ideas) before I implement them in the scenarios/story.
First, I have been planning for the Chinese to use asymmetric tactics in the opening phase of the war. Namely, landing special forces on Okinawa via submarine to destroy ABM sites prior to the first strikes and/or doing the same with spies and smuggled weapons. Both would use mortars, and if the site is isolated (like some of the Japanese ones on Okinawa) follow up by actually physically infiltrating the base. The second thing is laying mines outside of the naval bases at Sasebo, Yokosuka and perhaps ones on the US West Coast using cargo ships entering port at night. The ABM site one seems plausible but the second one might not work. Do these ideas seem feasible (within a scenario I am trying to make reasonably realistic/plausible). Another more extreme idea I have is to have spies sneak weapons (ATGMs or unguided anti-tank rockets) into the US or Japan and then attack ships as they sortie from port.
Next is more of a technical question. I am curious if there appears to be any indication as to how China plans to go about replacing older fighters like the J-8 and J-7, which as of 2020 are still in service, with newer fighters. Are the J-10 and J-11 meant to fill any specific role? Or are they just going to deploy them "wherever", or have a general balance of aircraft in each theater as opposed to deliberately swapping J-8s with J-11s and J-7s with J-10s. If this is not known, is there any need to do that? I ask as on the other hand, it seems pretty clear that H-6Gs are being replaced by H-6Js and H-6H/Ms are being replaced by H-6Ks, which makes making a realistic hypothetical order of battle easier.
Third, what is the purpose of the new American IRBM in the Pacific? In Europe it is rather clear that is is meant to counter Russian intermediate range nuclear weapons, but in the Pacific it seems a bit less clear. The "new" missile threat from China mainly comes from conventional ballistic missiles. It seems unrealistic for the US to try to build a similar number of conventional IRBMs as China has, not so much because of a lack of capability but because there aren't many good places to base the missiles. China can deploy its large conventional ballistic missile arsenal because the vast nature of the country gives plenty of space for the TELs to hide. There is no such luxury in Japan or South Korea, while the Philippines is politically unreliable. Conventional IRBMs would not be very effective as a counter or deterrent against Chinese conventional missiles unless used in large numbers, so it seems like this use is unlikely. Having the new missile use nuclear weapons is also problematic. Japan can not legally allow nuclear weapons on their soil, while despite talks of bringing back US tactical nuclear weapons, South Korea still hasn't shown much interest in having American nuclear weapons there. The Philippines is, as stated before, politically unreliable. Even if the Japanese or South Korean government did "bend" deploying such missiles would draw huge public backlash. So I am unsure what role such a missile should play in the story.