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Can anyone provide a explanation of how we should expect this to work?
I feel like there is info somewhere, I just don’t know where to find it.

Lots of peeking, no speaking.

Maybe pictures would help.

Turn 8 I cut off PG2 and PG3 mech formations north of Bryansk. My opponent has been trying to leapfrog/rest his mech units, but plenty of attacks turn 7 and 8 to gain the position in which I was able to cut their LOC.
Turn 9 they reconnected supply as expected, and made some progress as expected. But I missed by a slim margin being able to cut them off two turns in a row. I have displaced two Pzr Corps HQs from the salient, and other two are quite far back (I presume the unidentified HQ alongside Viking SS.

Can someone give me a ballpark of the supplies/gas I should expect to reach the German forces in their current positions? I don't know the basis for the calcs on these things at all anymore. I'm sure I just missed where to look.

So the beta patch notes lay out the new supply rules as follows:
Appendix A - supply modifiers

All values shown are percentages. All modifiers are multiplied together (rounding up in each step).

Range to railhead modifier: 0-10: 100, 11: 99, 12: 97, 13: 93, 14: 89, 15: 83, 16: 75, 17: 66, 18: 57, 19: 48, 20: 40, 21: 34, 22: 30, 23: 26, 24-25: 24, 26+: 0.

MP to railhead modifier: 0-10: 100, 11-16: 99, 17-19: 98, 20-21: 97, 22-23: 96, 24-25: 95, 26: 94, 27: 93, 28-29: 92, 30: 91, 31: 90, 32: 89, 33: 88, 34: 87, 35: 86, 36: 85, 37: 83, 38: 82, 39: 81, 40: 80, 41: 78, 42: 77, 43: 76, 44: 74, 45: 73, 46: 71, 47: 69, 48: 68, 49: 66, 50: 64, 51: 63, 52: 61, 53: 59, 54: 57, 55: 55, 56: 53, 57: 51, 58: 49, 59: 47, 60: 46, 61: 44, 62: 42, 63: 41, 64: 39, 65: 37, 66: 36, 67: 34, 68: 33, 69: 32, 70: 30, 71: 29, 72: 28, 73: 27, 74: 25, 75: 24, 76: 23, 77: 22, 78: 21, 79: 20, 80: 19, 81-82: 18, 83: 17, 84: 16, 85-86: 15, 87-88: 14, 89-90: 13, 91-93: 12, 94-100: 11, 101+: 0.

Movement modifier (does not apply to the AI, units closer than 6 MP to railhead, units that have 100% movement points left, units attached to cities, static units, fort units, construction units, Flakturm units, Static LW Flak units, and units with immobile elements): 105 - MP to railhead, no less than 25.

Local Vehicles modifier (does not apply to units attached to cities, static units, fort units, construction units, Flakturm units, Static LW Flak units, and units with immobile elements): 50 + percentage of needed vehicles present in the unit / 2, no more than 100.

Independent modifier: unit supplied via beachhead or air: 25, combat unit that is not supplied via HQ (does not apply to the AI, frozen units, security units, units attached to cities, static units, fort units, construction units, Flakturm units, Static LW Flak units, and units with immobile elements): 50, all other units: 100.

Admin modifier: failed Admin roll: 90, otherwise 100.

City’s Rail Network modifier consists of Axis Rail Supply modifier, First Winter modifier, and Isolated modifier. Cities are also subject to Global Vehicles modifier.

Axis Rail Supply modifier (applies only to on-map Soviet-nationality cities controlled by Axis player, that are not Finnish nor Rumanian “manpower” cities, that is those in Soviet Karelia up to Finnish No Attack Line, and those in Soviet Bessarabia up to Dnestr river): (165 + (5 * the number of months from December 1941, but not to be a negative number) / weather adjustment) - x coordinate of city)) + ((y coordinate of city - 69) / 2), no less than 33, no more than 100. The weather adjustment is equal to 1 in clear weather, 2 in mud or snow, and 3 in blizzard.

First Winter modifier (applies to the same cities as Axis Rail Supply modifier that are located in First Winter zone): in 1941: 50, in 1942: 75, otherwise 100.

Isolated modifier (applies to any city that is completely isolated, or is more than 25 hexes or 100 MP from railhead): 50, otherwise 100.

Global Vehicles modifier is not applied when requesting resources, but when actually moving them between cities (once global shortage has been determined), or when taking vehicles from the global pool and adding them to units.

Probably would be easiest to take a single unit at a time and walk through those modifiers.

I’ve been thinking about writing a quick guide to 12.xx supply but have been too swamped recently to do so. May find some time to hit it this weekend.

It is easiest to go through as said above with each modifier independently with easy examples. The huge exception is that units outside of 25 hex range or isolated have that modifier set to 0%, which paradoxically means 100% rather than 0%. This has implications and more recently I’m not sure if it’s intended.

I'm almost done with this turn, but will gather all the info for each unit in there that I can. I should have a good handle on C3 from the battle reports, and can get distance to HQ as well.

I think this would be good info for players of both sides, and the units coincidentally are at some interesting thresholds.

Biggie for me is just how far to expect them to leap turn after turn of apparently being out of supply.

It is easiest to go through as said above with each modifier independently with easy examples. The huge exception is that units outside of 25 hex range or isolated have that modifier set to 0%, which paradoxically means 100% rather than 0%. This has implications and more recently I’m not sure if it’s intended.

I don't follow. Why isn't it zeroing out the rest of the multipliers and putting the unit of supply?