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Manual says if a fraction is happy and shares a Profile with my regime it will provide cards.

Does it matter who wins election? What are those election influencing?

The faction(s) that won the election are the ones that will be [s]pestering you[/s] making demands.

I would say more likely making demands. As far as I can tell, factions that haven't won election are perfectly capable making demands too.

All it needs is a happy faction and the proper Regime Profile Level.

Minority factions can make demands too, but they have a much harder time IIRC.