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Apparently, it is still possible to take Manila on the first turn as my opponent demonstrated. The attack was only 3:1 but because the US unit is rather weak it retreated. Having stronger Philippine units doesn't do anything to prevent an attack against the US unit which is still relatively weak. It did require so sacrifice by the Japanese player. In this case all LBA had to be used in ground attacks rather than ships. And, it required the landing of an Army size unit which uses up maybe one additional Landing Ship compared to the two landings and blockade method.

I may be able to stop this by putting it in Hold mode at start. But it may require the US unit to be a little bit stronger.

Checking the initial OOB, the disposition of forces are quite correct.

In Manilla, there was a mixed of US and Philippine troops.

At the scale of the game, not sure how to handle this. Perhaps, put a small corps for the US in Manilla instead of a division. A combination of the Philippine Division (US Army) and the 91st Division (Philippine Army).

But, as you said, it was a trade-off for the Japanese. Looks like US ships have escaped.

North Luzon force was made up of 4 infantry divisions. So a large corps seems fine.

South Luzon force consisted of 2 infantry divisions. So maybe, we could reduced it to a small infantry corps instead of a large one.
As I said, increasing the US forces of Manilla from a division to a small infantry corps.

At last, the Visayan-Mindanao Force was made up of 3 infantry divisions. So perhaps more a large corps than a small one as per today.

Or just take away that landing beach to the NW.

Yes, perhaps.