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OK, 3rd in the series, this one is a real knife fight.

You are the Commander of JTF Baltic (Joint Task Force Baltic) working directly for JFC Brunssum (Joint Forces Command). The key elements of your TF is a powerful Multinational Naval Task Group (TG 60.3); significant air forces; and Multinational Corps Northeast commanding the Enhanced Forward Presence forces in the Baltic region. Your task is twofold, primarily you are to reduce the A2AD (Anti-Access, Area Denial) capacity of the Russians in the Kaliningrad enclave while simultaneously holding off any attacks from the Baltic Fleet or air forces from Russia proper.

As always I look forward to your comments and critiques.

B

V2 uploaded

"On order, JTF BALTIC will neutralize Russian A2AD capability emanating from Kaliningrad "

Stares at list of 6 SA-21 battalions, 2 SA-10 battalions, numerous SA-22 units, plus multiple supporting formations in adjacent 'Warpac' nations.

Counts all twenty (20) of his Tomahawks.

Uhmmm.....

Ahh yes but look at the number of F-35s you have....

And 10 Fitters! Saved!

We are NATO...

Is the AEGIS Ashore facility only intended to have 2 missiles?

Yes, still in the testing stage and not ready for operation until much later this year or probably next.

I do need to mention something in the brief...

SITUATION

The upcoming implementation of a No-Fly Zone (NFZ) over Ukraine is expected to lead to widespread hostilities between NATO and Russa, Here, in the densely packed Baltic region, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is predicted to be the focus of the confrontation.

Kaliningrad is densely packed with advanced SAM systems, and guarded by powerful SSM units. Numerous missile boats patrol its shores, and a force of six modern frigates is operating further north in the Baltic, between Gotland and Latvia. The Russians also have two SSKs reportedly operating in the area, and it goes without saying that they have swarms of aircraft in the region. (There’s no official indication that their stealth fighters are present, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to meet them too.)

Our ships in the Baltic are reasonably good, and include a pair of Burkes and some modern frigates, although they are widely dispersed in the central Baltic between Poland and Sweden at the moment. We have a small group of missile boats off the Lithuanian coast, a lone old Polish warship just off Gdansk, and a single modern SSK up near the Russian frigates. Ominously, we’ve also got two sets of minesweepers, one east and one west, which is a sobering reminder that the shallow Baltic is particularly vulnerable to this sort of warfare.

Our biggest strength is our aircraft, and we have been given control of an extensive range of planes at 22 different bases, from ancient Fitters in Poland, to the most modern F-35s based as far away as England. These will be the main force of our attack.

Overall dispositions, based on initial intelligence briefings, look like this.



INITIAL PLAN

Our primary orders are to neutralize the air defence and area denial systems in Kaliningrad, and also the supporting naval and air forces in the region. Therefore:

Aircraft will conduct initial reconnaissance of the Kaliningrad region, assess SAM site positions and naval vessel deployments, identify AEW patrols, and retire prior to hostilities.

Our spread-out surface ships in the central Baltic are at great risk from the swarms of missile boats and shore-based SSMs. They are ordered to concentrate into air-defense formation and retire west, to join forces with the Cook, our second Burke DDG, probably north of Bornholm.

Our eastern minesweepers are ordered to monitor the straits around Copenhagen. The western ones are very exposed, and will make a brief sweep outside their port, and be ready to return to base immediately.

Our western missile boats are ordered to head north directly along the coast, hopefully to gain some cover from shore clutter, and to prepare to engage the Russian frigate forces. Staff are still considering whether their modern Harpoon IIs, which can engage ground targets, would be better used against infrastructure in the Kaliningrad area.

Staff are to review initial reconnaissance reports and finalize attack plans on Kaliningrad. Two options are being considered. One envisions an immediate stealth fighter push targeting enemy recce and surveillance aircraft, then attacks focusing on eliminating Russian naval forces and fighter patrols, and finally a night attack focusing on the Kaliningrad defences themselves, once the area is clear(er) for operations. The other option is to cede the Baltic and essentially disengage for the moment, and concentrate on a heavy SEAD attack at the soonest opportunity, probably around mid-day. Much will depend on the results of the initial reconnaissance.

In either case, the Kaliningrad terrain is quite flat, and provides essentially no cover for aircraft or cruise missiles to sneak in close to their targets. Therefore, much of the SEAD work will need to rely on local saturation attacks using multiple small standoff weapons such as SDBs. In practice, this will mean that many (or most) of our stealthy or semi-stealthy fighters will need to transition to attack duty, rather than remain on fighter patrol.

(Sounds a lot like ‘fall back, and wait and see’… Not very inspiring, I guess, but we need to learn more. Let’s see how it goes!)

Hey, UCAVs! Neat!

PRE-GAME: (I’ll confess I made a couple of changes with the editor before starting. I changed my F-16s with HARM/JDAM loadouts to HARM/HARM loadouts, just as a matter of personal preference. I also changed all the F-15Es with Superfrags over to SDBs. Despite their catchy marketing name, Superfrags are just iron bombs with slightly optimized fragmentation characteristics. I can’t imagine they would seriously try and break into this level of air defence with iron bombs.)


INITIAL NAVAL OPERATIONS

Initial reports start rolling in shortly after 0400Z, and we soon have a good radar picture of the situation at sea, which is augmented by optical reconnaissance as a Challenger MPA and a pair of F-35s arrive in the area.

There’s an AGI sitting right on the tail of the Burke in the central Baltic, but it’s heading east, and doesn’t follow us as we turn and head west and hurry towards Bornholm to meet up with our other destroyer. We’ll soon be out of sight of the AGI, but that won’t matter much because there’s an antique Be-12 flying boat cruising around watching us all, so the Russians know where we are anyway.

There are 13 small contacts down by Kaliningrad, hiding under the dense SAM umbrella, near where the little Polish gun-armed corvette Kaszub is operating. There’s no point hanging around amid all that, and the Kaszub turns tail and runs away along the coast at 26 knots. Unfortunately, two of the contacts decide to follow us at 36 knots! These turn out to be a pair of Tarantuls, and the rest of the contacts are a mix of Tarantuls, Nanuchkas, Buyans and Shkvals. This pack of missile boats can generate a very nasty salvo of 40 Sizzlers, on top of whatever the long-range shore-based ASM batteries can add, so we’ll be keeping our ships well away from them for the moment.

Further west along the coast, two more small contacts are heading in the direction of Klaipeda, where some of our minesweepers are working. Fortunately, they’re moving slowly for the moment, but they’re well within pouncing range of our minesweepers, so our ships are ordered to knock it off, and head into port. Hopefully, shore clutter will protect them from missile attacks while docked.

Radar sweeps also find the expected six contacts up in the area where their frigates are operating, and our sub U-35 receives the updates and heads to intercept them. One pack of three is coming south at a quick 25 knots, while the other three are loitering further north. Our sub gets perfectly positioned for the southern pack, only to watch them go zooming past at uncatchably high speed. Our own missile boats, sneaking north along the coast, are in missile range of the leading pack, but the enemy’s air defences are quite modern, and it’s questionable whether our 24 missiles will be enough to pay the price of admission.


TENSIONS RISE

The No-Fly Zone goes into effect at 0600Z, and there’s been no indication of a diplomatic solution.

Russian AEW patrols have already been identified, safely positioned deep in Russian territory. Our F-35 recce flight has plotted the air defences in the Kaliningrad and Belarus region, and they seem to be a good match for the initial intelligence reports. Now we start to see Russian fighter aircraft arriving on station, a few in Kaliningrad, and a few more in Russia and Belarus.

A Russian SRBM attack could close airbases with little warning, so we start sortieing some of our own aircraft in the more threatened regions, particularly Latvia and Estonia, and Polish bases near Kaliningrad. We’ve also positioned some aircraft (including the Fitters!) ready to conduct limited anti-shipping strikes on outlying Russian missile boats, and we’ve got a Hellfire-equipped helicopter shadowing the AGI. There’s also an F-35 futilely trying to slow down enough to tail the Be-12, much to his colleagues’ amusement.

Hopefully hostilities hold off for a little longer, until we can get more aircraft on station for a better defensive posture. We’ve also got almost our entire EF2000 force in the process of switching over to AA loadouts, since their AG loadouts were much too short ranged for use in this dense SAM environment. They’ll only be ready at 0700. Fingers crossed!

HOSTILITIES AT SEA

The Russians wait to 0705Z before they violate the NFZ, and hostilities commence.

The Polish corvette Kaszub has been trying to run away from the pair of pursuing Tarantuls, to no avail, and now they’re only a few miles away, ready to swat our little warship. But, suddenly, the bridge crew sees the shadowers swing away from the coast, and plumes of smoke erupt into the air as their missiles leap into action – heading north, towards our distant surface group! “Open fire” yells the captain, and the Kaszub’s gun starts pounding away at the two enemy ships, whose own gun mounts are momentarily masked by their turn, Shell splashes obscure the Tarantuls, but bright flashes show some hits getting through.

“Aircraft!” yells the lookout, pointing to two sleek shapes skimming towards the Tarantuls, as a pair of Fitters come screaming in on afterburner. Dark puffs of AAA fire burst around them, riddling one of the planes with fragments, but they manage to drop their bombs, engulfing the missile boats in violent explosions. One plane staggers away, it’s engine flaming out as its pilot ejects, but the other escapes safely, leaving the amazed crew of the Kaszub to stare at the flaming wreckage of the two enemy ships. The captain soon has them back on course again, fleeing west along the coast, hopefully towards safety.

The Tarantuls’ missiles are heading north towards our surface group, and soon we have radar reports that the pack of missile boats near Kaliningrad is firing too, with multiple missiles in the air. Two of them are headed in the direction of the fleeing Kaszub, and loitering fighters manage to shoot them down, but the rest are headed north. However, when the radar operators plot their courses it’s apparent they’re aimed astern of our group. It looks like they’ve been fired at obsolete contact positions, and when they arrive there’s nothing there to hit, and the missiles are wasted.

Our own missile attacks are doing better. Our helicopter pummels the AGI with Hellfires, setting it fiercely ablaze, before scuttling back to the ships. (The AGI vanishes from radar sometime in the next hour, though no-one’s quite sure when.) An F-35 unleashes a pair of prototype HAAWCs at the two isolated missile boats closing on Klaipeda, sinking them neatly. This leaves our own missile boats, lurking on the Latvian coast, free to engage the incoming Russian frigates. They unleash a concentrated salvo of 24 missiles at the first three ships, under cover of an F-35 jammer, using a dogleg close-activation BOL attack to hit them from the rear quarter. Two ships are sunk, despite the heavy SAM fire, and the third barely escapes when the remaining missiles, distracted by the second ship, alter course just enough to pass in front. Our empty missile boats turn south and go hurrying down the coast again, hoping to hide in Klaipeda until someone can buy them some more missiles.

Unfortunately for the Russians, it’s not long before more F-35s arrive with SDB-IIs, and finish off the isolated ship, which has already used most of its long-range SAMs. My planes are interrupted for a while by Russian air activity, but within half an hour they’re able to use the remainder of their SDBs to sink one more and heavily damage one more of the remaining three frigates. Our sub, the U35, is maneuvering in their direction, and hopefully the slow speed of the crippled ship will help us make the intercept and finish the task.


HOSTILITIES IN THE AIR

Russia’s initial efforts in the air go better than their efforts on the sea.

At 0712Z there are reports of high-speed contacts launching from central Kaliningrad, as SRBMs blast into the air in the direction of our airbase at Siauliai in Lithuania. The remaining four fighters on alert there are scrambled immediately, and they manage to get airborne before the RVs come smashing down into the airbase, damaging runways, wrecking the taxiways, and closing the airbase. (The Danish fighters will rebase to Skrydstrup, and the Polish fighters to Poznan or Lask, where they can reload missiles of the proper type). More SRBMs hit Lielvarde in Latvia, damaging it but leaving it barely operational. There are no planes based there, nor munitions stored there, so it’s not a heavy blow, but I’m reluctant to use it now, even in emergencies. Fortunately, so far there’s no sign of an attack on Amari up in Estonia, although half the planes there are up on guard.

The Russians are attacking radar sites in the region too, and several get hit by Vampires coming in from Russia, mostly ARMs or SRBMs, plus at least a few cruise missiles. In the confusion we’re not entirely sure which are which. Attempts to turn off radars don’t help much. Fortunately, we’ve got some redundancy with other radars, especially down in Poland, although we’ll have to be careful, particularly at low altitudes near the border.

My F-16s in Lithuania try to make an attack on Su-27s in Kaliningrad, but that gets forced back easily, and some of their long-range SAMs start interfering, forcing my planes to run away at low level. Fortunately, they’re not using their best SAMs, and our planes escape below the radar horizon.

More Su-27s start coming up in central Kaliningrad, and then Su-24s and other attack planes start gathering south of the airbase there, apparently readying for an attack on our airbase and radar installations in northern Poland. Our MiG-29s are gathering in the area, but their old AA-10s are woefully outclassed by the Russian AA-12s, and our spoiling attack is easily rebuffed. Worse, there are signs of Su-35s coming in from the nearby Russian border, so F-15s and F-16s from Lask are scrambled to hurry to our MiG-29s’ assistance, and skirmishing commences.

Naturally, while all these interception attempts are underway, the Russians turn and head north for Klaipeda instead! This instantly makes our southern moves pointless, and our controllers suddenly find themselves scrambling to find enough fighters to cut off the thrust. The F-16s from Siauliai burner into the fight, F-35s are redirected from anti-shipping efforts, and F-22s dash in on supercruise across the Baltic. There’s much back-and-forth, as our F-16s flee from AA-12 shots, diving down and dragging them out in the dense lower atmosphere, and it is the arrival of our stealthy fighters, some with built-in OECM, that turns the battle in our favour. The attack is decisively defeated before it can reach its targets.


SITUATION

Our first wave of planes is mostly out of munitions now, and they are attempting to RTB without getting caught in SAM cover. Fighter skirmishing is ongoing on the western border of Poland (where fighter UCAVs have been spotted in action), with Su-35s facing off against modern F-15s. The Lithuanian-based F-16s are a fading force now, mostly withdrawing to Poland and Denmark, but fortunately the first of the EF2000s are arriving on-station over their country, and just in time too, since MiG-31s have been spotted inbound across Latvia.

There’s been no action in Estonia so far, although MiG-31s are inbound there too. I’ve just landed my first batch of F-16s for a quick turnaround, and the F-15s are taking their place. Hopefully there won’t be any major attack there until the F-16s are ready again.

The situation at sea is solidly in our favour. Our combined task group, with both DDs, is lurking up near the Swedish coast, and has yet to be properly targeted. Only two of the Russian FFGs are left, one of those is damaged, and their outlying missile boats are gone. The main missile boat flotilla has used about half (we estimate) of its long-range missiles, and doesn’t seem to know where we are at the moment. Of course, that still leaves their two subs, but we’re not in their AO at the moment. (And yes, someone did eventually kill the Be-12, after it dodged one AMRAAM, survived a second one, was missed by cannon fire, and was finally potted by a Sidewinder from a retiring F-22. Sheesh…)


MUSING: I think I’m doing okay at sea, although I was definitely fortunate that their missile attacks missed, but I feel like my air deployment left something to be desired. It was very makeshift and haphazard, and definitely could have been improved by having better fighters further forward in the Kaliningrad area, and near the Polish and Lithuanian border. I’m certainly glad that SAM activity seems to be limited. They’re not using their very long-range active radar SAMs, which could probably be doing some significant area denial work. They’ve not used their shore-based ASMs either.

I wonder if I should have organised a hasty strike at the central Kaliningrad airbase, where the SRBMs are gathered, with the strikers loitering on tanker until the go order? It couldn’t have stopped the SRBMs which launched only 7 minutes after hostilities began, but it might have prevented a second SRBM strike (Amari? Miroslawiec?), assuming they’re reloading now. Of course, if the strike comes from Russia, I am completely unable to prevent it, and can only sit and watch.

I’m also a little nervous about F-22s basing so close to the front in Miroslawiec. That leaves them at risk too. Should they be sent back somewhere? Hmmm…

Nicely done so far Andrew

The weekend was a good time for a little more Command. What happened?


STRUGGLES IN THE AIR

For the next few hours, we find ourselves struggling to hold on to control of our airspace, especially on our eastern borders and up in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

At first, we’re facing MiG-31s up north in Estonia, Su-27s in the center, and some Su-35s down south near Belarus, and we generally manage to deal with them, despite occasional interference from SAM shots near the border. The big news is a 14-plane surge out of Kaliningrad, which turns out to be mostly Su-30s headed for Klaipeda and Siauliai. They run directly into a wall of EF2000s and are smashed down, except for a pair of Su-24s, which manage to launch their missiles and wreck a hangar in Siauliai before getting shot down in turn. Thank heavens the heavy SAMs at their airfield were not in operation, or we could have been in a very bad situation.

A massive fighter struggle breaks out next, with at least 10 MiG-31s boiling out of Khotilovo in Russia, multiple four-plane sweeps of Su-35s coming down from the direction of St. Petersburg and also from Khotilovo, and additional reinforcing flights thereafter. My first thought is that this presages a major attack on Amari, which is the only undamaged airfield left in the three Baltics, and everything starts scrambling to meet the threat. A handful of F-22s and F-35s make it to the scene, and join EF2000s to do crucial work breaking up the wave, but they can’t be everywhere. The F-16s from Amari try their best, but are so badly outranged that they have to flee in disarray, and it’s only the half-dozen F-15Es there which break up the final waves of Su-35s. In the end, there are no bombers after all, and Amari, and its surviving fighters, is not attacked.

Long-ranged missiles and stealth turn out to be the dominating factors here, and even then, local numerical superiority is essential when tackling major units like the MiG-31s. If it hadn’t been for the constant stream of Meteor-armed EF2000s flowing up the Baltic from Germany, I would have been in huge trouble. The F-22s may be flashier, but the EF2000s were the backbone of the defence.


OTHER AIR OPERATIONS

The Russians continue an intermittent series of small cruise missile attacks from Kaliningrad and from Russia itself. Passing fighters spot them occasionally, usually two at a time, but rarely have a chance to pause and catch them. Siauliai gets struck repeatedly, mostly re-hitting cratered runway infrastructure, and the repeated hits are demoralizing even though the operational effect is minor. Their other target seems to be the Aegis ashore installation west of Gdansk in Poland, a very politically sensitive target. The Polish MiG-29s at nearby Malbork set up a patrol at the installation, and manage to shoot down all the incoming cruise missiles.

Our fighters also spot activity at a few suspicious locations near NATO facilities deep inside the Baltic states; one near Amari, one near Klaipeda, and one near Siauliai. Quadcopter activity is spotted at one of them, and they all get a dose of strafing which occasionally produces a small secondary. Are they saboteurs? Spotters? Their presence causes enough concern that a trio of MQ-9 UAVs are sent to scout around the Polish airbases at low level, in case there are more there quadcopter sites there, but the UAVs find nothing.

Missile expenditures are becoming a concern in some areas, and fortunately HQ has allocated us a resupply flight. We ask it to go to Miroslawiec, to provide extra AMRAAMs for the F-22s there, who will put them to good use.


COUNTERPUNCH

It isn’t all about running away from Russian missiles, and our pilots find a way to make some counterstrokes of their own. Radar operators have put together a picture of ongoing operations in Russian airspace, and now have plots of their AWACS, ELINT, and Jamming patrols, along with some fighter CAP positions. Most interesting of all, they have identified a pair of tanker missions, one up near the north-east corner of Estonia, and the other down near the border of Belarus, and both of them have one corner of their flight-path which is just barely in range of long-range AAMs launched from NATO airspace...

EF2000s work their way into position, try to time it right, dash towards the border at supersonic speeds, and hurl long-ranged ramjet powered Meteor missiles towards the foe. The lumbering tankers, caught at the vulnerable corner, have little hope of dodging, and we manage to kill at least three of them, as well as a few jammer Su-24s whose patrols are too close to the border down near Belarus. Best of all, one of their AEW Mainstays comes forward to refuel, and gets shot down as it follows the tanker!

Planners are well pleased with this work, although some of the diplomats raise an eyebrow at engaging targets in Russia itself. Our position is quite simple. So long as they wish to hurl cruise missiles at us from Russian territory, we are quite happy to hurl Meteors back in exchange.


NAVAL OPERATIONS

Our operations in the Baltic are not quite as audacious. Our little Polish FFL, the Kaszub, continues to withdraw west along the Polish coast, glad to be out of the area, and our main task group continues to keep its distance from the fight, slowly steaming east up by the Swedish coast. Our trio of empty missile boats arrives off Klaipeda, and arrays itself just offshore to provide SAM defences for the naval base. Meanwhile, the Russian missile boat flotilla continues to slowly steam around off Kaliningrad, in Gdansk bay. For a moment, at ~ 1030Z, it looks like they might be headed north, but that’s a false alarm, and they resume their circling.

Our sub U35 has the most excitement, as it heads north to engage the remaining two frigates, creeping along gently just above the sea floor. The crippled Soobrazitelnyy succumbs to a single torpedo, and then half an hour later the Neustrashimy is engaged and sunk by two more, eliminating the last of the major Russian (surface) warships in the Baltic. Two brave ASW helicopter crews head north from Kaliningrad, trying to hunt for our sub. They’re all alone and very exposed, and two passing EF2000s, returning from the fight in Estonia, are happy to divert down below the clouds and kill them with a volley of heat-seekers. The U35 is ordered to head south, snorting at periscope depth, and then to begin hunting for the two Russian subs reportedly in the area.


ATTACK ON KALININGRAD

After extensive analysis, expert staff have astutely proposed an exemplary four-phase attack on two different objective zones within Kaliningrad. (NOTE: Any press enquiries about two initial simulation attempts, which may or may not have had marginally sub-standard results, shall neither be confirmed nor denied. Staff analytical methods are, and shall remain, an official secret.) Objective 1 is the Chernyakhovsk airbase in central Kaliningrad , and Objective 2 is composed of the four major SA-21 sites in the south-western section of the Kaliningrad coastal zone. This does not include the remainder of the SAMs or the ASMs in the north-eastern sector.

First steps for the attack begin at 1200Z, with England-based tankers taking off and heading towards refuelling stations on the German/Polish border. These are followed by attack planes from bases in England, and then France, Denmark, Germany and Poland in sequence as the wave advances. Fortunately, Russian fighter activity has dropped sharply, after the major engagements of the morning, and the attack is approaching its final loiter location by ~ 1330Z. Naturally, that’s exactly when planes start launching out of Kaliningrad!

Two bogeys come booming up out of the base, and immediately launch high-speed vampires south-east, towards the Polish radar which is ideally positioned to look into the airspace in the Belarus ‘corner’. Loitering F-35s try and pounce, but the missiles get away and smash the radar, even though the crew is warned to turn it off. Angrily, the F-35s turn their attention to the planes, which turn out to be Su-24s, and shoot them down just as they are about to land again.

With that out of the way, the attack begins.


OBJECTIVE 1 – Chernyakhovsk Airbase

The Chernyakhovsk airbase attack is assigned to the F-15Es from Lakenheath in distant England, who fly in with a mix of SDBs, small JDAMs for general work, and heavy penetrator BLU-109 JDAMs for the runways and taxiways.

Phase 1 brings in the SDB carriers from the west, aiming a powerful barrage of 104 SDBs at the defences from long range, before diving to the deck and turning aside to avoid any active radar SAMs which might come back along our bearing. Fortunately, none of their SAM radars are on, and the small SDBs aren’t spotted until they break out of the cloud almost on top of them. A good number of SDBs are shot down anyway, but the barrage is overwhelming, and the SAMs are destroyed.

Phase 2 brings the JDAM carriers in from the east, popping up from nap-of-the earth altitude to drop heavy JDAMs on the runways, and lighter ones on the control tower, barracks, and the three Iskander missile batteries which have been pestering me with cruise missiles all morning. The SA-23, half-way between Kaliningrad and the airfield, lights up its radar and spots the munitions and planes, and a blast of missiles comes our way. Fortunately, our pilots all manage to dodge away below the radar horizon and escape, but if that had been an SA-21, with active radar missiles, the result might have been very different. The heavy JDAMs come crashing down into the base, blasting huge craters in the runways, and enough of the smaller JDAMs survive to eliminate all the Iskander vehicles.



OBJECTIVE 2 – Heavy coastal SAMs

This objective is assigned to a multi-national mix of planes, with everything from F-22s to F-35s, Typhoons, Rafales, and F-16s. The long-range ordnance mix is primarily SDBs (104) and SPEAR mini cruise missiles (62), plus some HARMs, while the shorter-range mix is dominated by French SBUs (48) and some WCMDs on four brave F-16s.

Phase 3 opens with the SDBs and SPEARs, this time coming from the south. The SDBs are mostly aimed at the two eastern-most SA-21s, and some for the lone SA-23 between the coast and the airbase, while the SPEARS are all aimed at the two SA-21s in the middle of the coastal pack. As before, the planes dive and turn away to get out of the line of return fire, while their munitions proceed alone. The F-16s wait nervously with their HARMs as the munitions get closer and closer. When they finally glide out of the clouds every SAM radar lights up, with so much energy you could cook a chicken on the wingtip. The F-16s salvo their HARMs at the SA-23, and dive and dodge to clear the line.

The SDBs pummel their targets, completely wrecking the first SA-21 and adjacent SA-22, but only a few shots get through to damaging the next one in line, leaving the slower-moving SPEARs to home in on their own targets. The Russians are replying with such a ferocious blast of SAMs that none of them make it through, and more SAMs are hurtling towards the HARMs and SDBs which are homing in on the lone SA-23. Many are shot down, but the SA-23 already fired many of its missiles to defend the airbase, and enough of our warheads break through to entirely destroy the isolated battery.

Phase 4 brings in the Rafales and F-16s with WCMDs, which have been lurking safely out of the line of fire to the south-west. The Rafales come hurrying in, popping up to unleash their 35-mile range SBUs at the remaining heavy SAM sites and some of the surrounding SA-22s, before diving to run away again, but the F-16s have to get within 15 miles of their targets. They press on grimly towards the storm of explosions which are bursting ahead of them. There are still a few SAMs in the air, but most of the ready rounds have been fired, and surviving SBUs start reaching their targets.

A few SA-22 batteries are hit, but most of the SA-21s are still partially intact, as the F-16s pull up on burner, and pickle their bombs towards the targets. WCMDs are guided cluster bombs with smart submunitions, and they are devastating. All three of the battered SA-21s are completely wrecked, as is another SA-22. Alas, there are still a few more SAMs left. Dive and flee as they might, two of the four F-16s are cut down before they can out-range the missiles and make their escape.


SITUATION ASSESSMENT

All but two of our planes are currently returning to base. Despite our precautions, the spillover from long-range active radar SAMs still causes problems, as they zoom along like deadly anti-aircraft cruise missiles. A number of flights are forced to make abrupt course changes to avoid the missiles, but in the end they escape unscathed. Some of the planes, particularly the Typhoons, will need to refuel on the way home, but most can make it without assistance.

The first Kaliningrad attack has been a success. The airfield has been shut, the Iskander brigade there has been destroyed, and one SA-21 and three SA-22s have been destroyed. In the coastal area, our strike managed to destroy four more SA-21s, an SA-23, and two SA-22s.

This still leaves a potent force of 2 SA-21s, an SA-23, and five SA-22s, up in the north-east corner of the coast, along with the anti-shipping missiles. The Russians have used a tremendous number of SAMs, but given our situation they’ll have plenty of time to reload from stockpiles before our next visit. This area will be the focus of a second strike tonight, when we can take advantage of the darkness. If all goes well, we may be able to combine this with a strike on the missile boat flotilla, to add even more confusion to the mix.


MUSING: I actually ran the attack three times, trying out different methods. The first time both objectives were hit simultaneously, with close-range attackers following immediately on the heels of the SDBs, and the results were actually reasonably good, shutting the airbase and killing two of the big SAMs on the coast. However, I lost a number of close-range planes on the exit, to those wretched active radar SAMs. The second run was a variant, hitting the airbase first, before the coast. The airfield attack went okay, but then HARMs triggered radars, which saw the incoming SDBs on the coast, and ate them alive (only 1 meagre hit), and spillover SAMs killed some planes anyway as they tried to escape. The third time was much more disciplined and carefully planned to separate timings and avoid spillover, and the results were much better.

I should have the resources to destroy the rest of Kaliningrad tonight. Hopefully they won’t all have reloaded. I think I’ve powerfully knocked back the Russians’ offensive power, and my guess is that a missile boat sortie, or possibly an attack on Amari, are the only places they are likely to pose a problem. Their subs, as always, remain a wildcard. I don’t have extensive ASW MPA (and the SAM environment is still very risky for helicopters), and stumbling on one of them could be disastrous.

Let’s see what tonight brings!

Well the guys in the CAOC Mission planning room obviously had CPE to rehearse their strike plan

As I mentioned to Andrew in a separate discussion, the Devs are working on a better way of handling the Quadcopters and when that is working they will be much harder to detect... and much more prolific... Targeting problems? What targeting problems do you speak of

Operations near Kaliningrad continue…


WITHDRAW, SKIRMISH, AND WAIT

The forces from our big attack on Kaliningrad withdraw to their bases in the west, pausing here and there for additional fuel if they need it, and by late afternoon they have all landed and resumed readying for their next missions. A review of munitions stocks show that we are running low on some of our better AA munitions (only 36 Meteors left at our EF2000 base), and naturally we’ve used up a big chunk of our air-to-ground ordnance, but we should be okay for the next phase of operations.

Some light skirmishing continues out towards Russia. Our pilots manage to kill a few more Su-24s near the Belarus border, and one of a pair of Su-35s up near St Petersburg, but we’re reluctant to waste missiles. The Russians shoot a couple more cruise missiles towards the Aegis Ashore installation, this time coming from St Petes, but they get intercepted without much difficulty. Other than that, it’s a matter of quietly patrolling and waiting.


KALININGRAD STRIKE – PART 2

The second wave of Kaliningrad strikes begins as tankers start getting underway at 2200Z, eventually followed by the stream of attack planes, much like before.

At 2300Z the navy gets into the act, salvoing thirty Tomahawks at one of the two remaining SA-21 batteries. The batteries are situated on the south-west side of the gently rising land which projects into the Baltic, so our missiles come hooking around through the darkness from the north-east, taking advantage of the terrain cover to keep out of view as long as possible. They get engaged as they clear the rise, but half of them get through, hammering the battery and leaving it combat ineffective.

The main attack hits at 0000Z. Now that there’s no threat from the Chernyakhovsk airbase region, our planes circle around the target to hit the remaining SAMs from all directions, with a barrage of SDBs and SPEARs from the NW, NE, and SE. The Russians are keeping their radars off, so the munitions are almost on top of them before they are noticed, and most of the air defences are swept away. Rafales then come in from the SW with SBUs, cleaning up the surviving SAMs and the anti-shipping missiles.

The missile boat flotilla is still patrolling just offshore, and some of them have useful SAM systems, so our Typhoons engage them with a swarm of Brimstone missiles, targeting the Nanuchkas and Shkvals, which have the best anti-aircraft missiles. The tiny little Brimstones score multiple hits on all of them, causing fires or minor flooding on just over half the boats, but no immediate sinkings. A pair of F-15Es tell the Typhoons to stop screwing around, and come in and plink the lot of them with 500-pound laser guided bombs.

When that’s complete, the rest of the F-15Es pummel the docks and heliport with heavy ordnance. A barrage of JDAMs of all types wrecks the area, leaving little of immediate military use. Remaining structures can be destroyed later in follow-up strikes, if necessary.


SUB HUNTING

The major land installations in Kaliningrad have been destroyed, and the Russian surface navy has been sunk, but there are still two Russian subs which have not been accounted for. Now that the SSM and SAM threat is gone, our surface group (which has been hiding up north near Sweden) turns south and spreads out into a wider sonar-search formation, and starts sending some of its limited number of ASW helicopters ahead to conduct sonobuoy searches. The intention is to search the area where the sub was reported in the center of the Baltic, while our own sub will head for the coast and look for the sub which is reportedly off the mouth of the Bay of Gdansk.

At 0530Z sonarmen start yelling about torps directly ahead of our leading frigate, about five miles out. Naturally, they’re exactly in the middle of a gap where some active sonobuoys expired a little while ago, and we’ve been caught on a sprint, when our sonar performance is at its worst. Two ASROCs blast into the air and go hurtling down-range, while helicopters scramble, and our ships turn to run at flank speed. The ASROCs hit the water, and one of them goes into continuous ping almost immediately. A minute later there’s a distant underwater thump and flooding noises, as something starts sinking to the Baltic floor.

Our fleeing ships spread out independently, accelerating as fast as they can, and the helicopters report they have firm contacts on three incoming torpedoes. One’s going to pass harmlessly between our ships, but the other two lock on to the leading frigate, the General Pulaski, which is now actually the trailing frigate. They close in at a remorseless 70 knots. If they’re older 53-65Ks we should just barely outrun them, but if they’re new Fizik-1s we won’t.

We don’t.


FINAL OPERATIONS

After such a good start, the loss of a ship is a blow. Militarily, the exchange of a middle-aged frigate for a modern SSK is an even trade. (It’s not a kind thing to say, but that’s what frigates are for.) The media don’t see it that way, and the news helicopter footage of the rescue operations gets plenty of attention worldwide.

There’s still one more sub out there which needs to be found. Our task group re-organizes, and cautiously proceeds on its patrol. Which lucky frigate gets to go first?

Another active sonar contact is found half an hour later, eight miles out, and although it’s stationary the Cook drops an ASROC on it anyway. It turns out to be a wreck, but nobody criticizes the expenditure. The Menendez Nunez torpedoes some fish four miles away, and nobody laughs. Then, just as our patrol period is about to expire, the Hamburg gets an active sonar contact in appallingly bad sonar conditions at horrifyingly short range (2.7 nm!) in very shallow water (35 m). Frantic fingers stab at launch keys, and ASROCs and torpedoes descend on the target. Saints preserve us, it’s a real sub, we’re somehow in its baffles, and it’s hit before it has time to react.


And with that final brown-pants moment, the scenario comes to a close. Thanks again for another detailed and interesting scenario.

Sub hunting in the Baltic is always fun, isn't it

Thanks Andrew, great stuff as usual.

B

I had a chance to look around at the scenario today, so here are an assortment of thoughts.


SAMs

Although the Russians have numerous very long-ranged SAMs, they make little use of them, except in close-range self defence against incoming munitions. The Kaliningrad SAMs should be able to threaten much of Lithuania, Poland, and the Baltic, the Belarus SAMs should threaten eastern Poland and Lithuania, and the Russian SAMs should threaten eastern Estonia and Latvia. However, I was able to operate freely in all these areas, at high fuel-efficient altitudes where my missile range is best. I could bring tankers into the Baltic, and even go dashing right up to the Russian border. The player should have his high-altitude support aircraft (AWACS, tankers, ELINT) forced out of the area entirely, and his fighters and attack planes shoved well away from the Russian borders, unless they manage to evade detection by staying below the radar (as they are currently forced to do in Ukraine) where they will use extra fuel.

Also, the Russian SAMs are essentially blind (low clouds, radar usually off), and generally can’t detect incoming munitions until they’re only a few miles away. This let me get salvos of SDBs and similar weapons quite close to the SAMs before they were detected and engaged. This made the SAMs much less effective than they could be.

I was thinking about how to improve the performance of the SAMs, so here’s a few ideas.

• Turn on some radars. A couple of SA-22 radars active, at the north and south ends of the Kaliningrad coastal area, and one or two at Chernyakhovsk airfield, would improve local awareness against incoming munitions. Turning on one of the central SA-21s on the coast and the SA-21 at Chernyakhovsk would dramatically improve awareness. Activating some big SAM radars along the Russian border, particularly the Belarus corner, near southern Latvia, and northern Estonia would help there too. (Yes, this does invite HARMs, but these SAMs can handle the limited number of HARMs available.)
• Exclusion zones. An exclusion zone could be activated around Kaliningrad after hostilities commence, to automatically classify any contact in the zone as hostile. The zone edge should be at least 70 or 80 miles from the closest SAM if you want to engage incoming planes before they can launch SDBs (60 mile range). A similar zone could go along the Russian/Belarussian border, and one might be useful out in the Baltic (where support planes try and linger). Having the zone extend up into Lithuania might help the SAMs cover the attacks on Klaipeda and Siauliai.
• Weapons Free. This would be the alternative to exclusion zones, allowing engagements on anything flying anywhere, whether it’s been ID-ed as hostile or not. This needs to be set after hostilities commence. (The downside of weapons free and exclusion zones is vulnerability to decoys, but there aren’t a lot of those at the moment.)
• Tuned WRA. The SA-21s have enormous range, but it might not be profitable to take all shots at truly extreme range, where fighters could easily dodge them. It may be necessary to specify WRA for long-range single shots at known slow movers out in the 175 mile range or so, while shots at fighter and attack planes are constrained to shorter distances, perhaps 100 miles? It should definitely be more than the 60 or 70 miles currently used for modern fighters.
• Designated Shooter. Maybe have it set up so only a few of the big SAMs are ‘long-range shooters’? Perhaps one SA-21 in the center of the Kaliningrad coast, with big magazines, is assigned to take single long-range shots at targets of opportunity, while others would have WRAs set for shorter ranged, more defensive purposes?
• Missions with zones. I think there’s a way to have SAMs respect mission zones that was recently added. That might work to protect areas of interest.

It would be ideal if there was a ‘vertical WRA’ option, preventing shots at low targets which can simply duck out of sight below the horizon.

These SAM adjustments would make it a very different game, and turn the Russian defences into far more formidable opponents. At the moment, they’re not doing much more than reacting in the final moments when being shot at. If these changes are made, I would recommend increasing the points value awarded for destruction of the major SAM units, as they will be more difficult to destroy.


NAVAL ITEMS

Tests show the frigates and the shore-based ASMs will not engage NATO ships. Engage Opportunities = Yes is needed to allow the engagement for these systems. Weapons free might be needed if you want to engage yellow unknown radar or sonar contacts.

As usual, the Russians have trouble finding NATO ships. The Russians do have the Be-12 up at the start of the scenario, which gives some initial radar spotting capability and a few IDs, but it’s soon gone. They might be able to maintain more continuous cover if at least one of the Kaliningrad SSM batteries had its big OTH radar on, although that’s only 100 miles, so it won’t help much if NATO clears the area and keeps its distance. (The Tarantuls have an OTH radar too.) Identification is difficult below the clouds, so perhaps a peacetime recce pass at low altitude, on a defined course around the Baltic, could give the initial IDs, and the radar could maintain the tracks afterwards. This is what the Be-12 is trying to do, but all it has for ID is eyeballs. Do the Russians have anything fast-moving with a modern set of optics, other than an Su-30? Maybe a Haze, starting out at sea but immediately heading home?

A shore-based Haze, assigned to a high-altitude support mission with its big radar on, gets 170 miles of radar coverage. If it stays over their airbase, it can get contacts all the way to the far side of the Baltic. This, combined with Engage Opportunities = Yes and Weapons Free vs Surface would let the Russians conduct immediate anti-ship activities anywhere within the central Baltic. This might be more valuable than having the Haze on an ASW patrol. Another spotting option might be a spy or two, one up near Klaipeda, and another on the west corner of the Gulf of Gdansk, to spot any shoreline sneakers.

The Russians fired a lot of their ship-based ASMs at obsolete contacts. For example, they kept firing pairs of SS-25s at the last known position of the Kaszub, at least an hour after the last firm fix. I tried dropping targets for them, but that didn’t work, and in the end I had to adjust their prosecution zone to exclude the contact, and manually give them back the wasted missiles. That’s not an option for practical play, but I’m not sure if there’s anything which can be done about it.

It would help the frigates to have at least one of their radars on in each task group, in order to spot incoming sea-skimming missiles. (The Baltic’s so tiny they can’t really hide.) I was able to get my missiles in quite close with a BOL attack before they were detected, which greatly reduced the effectiveness of their SAMs. I reran my Harpoon attack with the radar on in the central ship, and there was only one loss instead of two. The ships are a little spread out too. Radar horizon’s only 15 miles away vs a Harpoon, and self defence is currently set at just 10 miles. With 6 to 8.5 miles already between ships they’re limited in the amount of mutual support they can give.

The same was true for the missile boat flotilla. Their best SAM ships are on Msl Boat Ptl A, which has radars off, and left them almost no chance to use their SAMs against air-delivered ordnance. (Patrols B and C do have radar on.)

The Russian warships will have an extremely difficult time detecting the ultra-quiet NATO SSK. Here are some test results with the most modern of their frigates, vs. a head-on creeping sub at -40m.

• Passive: no detection at 25 kts full, 400m at 18 knots cruise, 1.5 nm at 5 knots creep.
• Active: no frontal detection at 25 knots full, 750 m at 18 knots cruise, 2.3 nm at 5 knots creep.

All of these are well within the no-escape range of NATO torpedoes.

None of the frigates’ helicopters are assigned to missions.

Perhaps setting the Russian frigates to leave their groups when damaged and withdraw to port at St Petersburg would be an interesting option?


CRUISE MISSILES AND SRBMS

The ‘Aegis Strike’ mission fired only two cruise missiles at a time, which made them reasonably easy to stop with minor resources (a couple of MiG-29s in my case). Switching the WRA for the mission to Use All Weapons gives the full salvo of 16, which is more likely to succeed.

The unit assigned to the ‘Aegis Strike’ is in Russia, which means the missiles must overfly 525 miles of Lithuania/Latvia (depending on their dogleg), Kaliningrad, and part of Poland, which exposes them to a lot of defences. It may be better to have this unit attack the Baltic airbase targets which are closest to them, while units in Kaliningrad attack the Aegis ashore installation instead. For them, the target is only about 160 miles away, and the cruise missiles would be mostly inside their own SAM cover.

If this is done, it would probably be best to divide the units of the 152nd Gds Msl Brigade into SRBM and GLCM components (i.e., copy the units, and delete the unwanted mounts from each set.) That way you could specifically assign the GLCMs to the Aegis Strike, and the SRBMs to the airfield strike.

The Amari Access points/Rwys mission and the Lielvarde Access Points missions did not launch their GLCMs. Their WRA is set to not engage runway type targets (possibly intentionally?). If you want them to launch, setting them to 1 or more gives a salvo. Since they will mostly be re-hitting already destroyed runways and access points, it may be better separating them from the SRBMs (as above), and giving them missions to target the radars and soft targets like hangars, in the Baltic states and Poland.

The units assigned to the Siauliai Access points/Rwy mission also have the WRA for their cruise missiles set to not attack runways, but they do anyway, one missile at a time against the same runway access point over and over again. If their WRA is set to 1 or more they will salvo their missiles at the different targets on the list, which is more effective. (Or maybe use them against Aegis ashore?)


OTHER MISSIONS

The Russian submarine on the B-585 Ptl starts at -33m, but its depth arrow is at -7m, and it ascends and is effectively at periscope depth thereafter, and is thus detectable visually and on radar. You can manually set it lower, but once you un-check the manual setting it goes right back up to that depth again. I’m not sure why, when the B-806 Ptl, with the same settings, seems to be functioning normally. Perhaps this is an effect of the shallow water? You may need to manually specify transit, station, and attack depths for this mission. (I did this early in the game, and it seemed to work.)

The Russian support aircraft are patrolling close enough to the borders to be engaged by long-range air-to-air missiles, such as Meteors. I’d recommend moving all patrols to be at least 80 miles from the border. This affects ELINT South, Jammer South, Jammer North, Tanker North, and Tanker South. (Or stick a SAM trap there, and use them as bait!)

The AWACS mission is currently set to allow its tankers to refuel. If the tanker missions are in their current position, this allows the AWACS to be attacked.

Lielvarde UAV has the helipad assigned to the mission, rather than the Quadcopters.

Liepajas UAV has no units assigned to the mission.


EVENTS, TRIGGERS, ACTIONS

The ‘NATO Runway/Taxiway Disabled’ event uses repeatable triggers which fire whenever the runway takes damage while it is above a certain threshold. Thus a runway which is on fire will continuously lose points, at a rate of 10 every 15 minutes. You would need non-repeatable triggers for each individual runway to avoid this. I turned off the event after the SRBM attacks were complete.

The ‘NATO Ship Sunk’ event also uses the ‘NATO Submarine Sunk’ trigger. It will fire for both ships and subs.

The ‘Russia SSK Sunk’ trigger does not specify a subtype, so it does not fire, and points are not awarded for the subs.


ASSORTED ITEMS

The MiG-31s would really benefit from Weapons Free and an adjustment to their WRA, to make the most of their long-ranged missiles. I was often able to get within range and engage with Meteors or AMRAAMs before they opened fire, despite the fact that they theoretically out-range me by 85 miles. In part, this was because the AA-13’s WRA vs unknowns is only 60 miles, and against known 5th gens like the F-35s and EF2000s it is only 70 nm. For the AA-13s, setting this to 90 miles would help regain some advantage. They can detect a frontal EF2000 at 85 miles, and hit it with an Arrow even if it immediately flees on burner, high or low. (Against F-35s, detection is less than 20 miles – uh oh…)

There are a number of planes with no loadouts or missions. (Intentional?)

• 26 MiG-29s and 4 Su-30s at Baranovichi AB in Belarus.
• 8 Su-30s, 8 Su-35s, and 4 Su-57s at Lipetsk AB.
• 4 A-50U Mainstays at Ivanovo AB.

Does the briefing need to provide any formal guidance on engaging targets inside Russia itself? I felt that my attacks on support aircraft there were legitimate (what bloodthirsty wargamer wouldn’t?), but that may not be what you had intended for the scenario.

It turns out the SPEAR munitions (SPEAR and SPEAR EW) are not actually available yet. IOC for SPEAR was supposed to be 2025, and late last year there was discussion about pushing that date back further. Perhaps a few test articles might be available, but probably not the dozens which I used. Similarly, I believe HAWC (Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept) is just a research project.

Could the Russians in Kaliningrad benefit from a ground-based ESM system, with specific emitter ID (if the Russians have such a thing), to help them ID aircraft operating above the clouds, or distant ships using their radars?

The Quadcopters have five minutes of endurance and a range of 0 (presumably a DB error) so they land instantly after they take off.

Quadcopters count as full aircraft for points.

Some of the contacts in the Kaliningrad dockyards are actually underwater, and cannot be engaged. The Missile Boat Pier is one, and I think there were a couple of others.

It seemed a little surprising that despite the heavy emphasis the briefing places on the destruction of the air defences, the major SAMs are only worth 10 points, while the naval and air base facilities, which are 6th and 7th on the list, are worth 25 or 50 points.


Typos and Whatnot

“Several SS-26 Iskandar Brigades” (Iskander)

Is the line about the SSK Novorossiysk, from Tartus, intended to be in this briefing?

Thanks Andrew, great report

Andrew to address a couple of your points.

The unarmed aircraft are Byelorussian, so am leaving them out of the fight. For a while I thought I might put a random chance of them joining but decided against it. Will leave them there for decoration.

I'm not going to address the 'attack over Russia', will let each player wrestle with their conscious but plan for them doing it by moving the patrols back and the SAMs up a bit. Tx

Played around a bit with Radars, the SSMs and airborne WRA. It should be a little more challenging now

I plan on getting an update out later today and hopefully the Pac-22 scenario in the next few days.

Thanks again

OK here is the update folks. Lots of changes and adjustments.

Please keep the comments coming.