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I'm dipping my toes into the singleplayer to get at least some info on the events and spawns b4 MP.

While playing as the Union, very early on the South got a diplo success of 36% on Kentucky (see the attached screenshot on 1861-06-17)

I had not attacked Missouri but that still got Kentucky right into the war.

The manual says:

"Every diplomacy chit invested has a 3% chance of moving the target country towards your side by
7-10% if it is a Major power, with a 10% chance of that swing being 20-30% if the targeted country is a
Minor."

So how is a 36% hit even possible?

Kentucky goes a certain percentages to Union every turn, by default.

Maybe the percentage shown is the sum of the default move towards Union plus the 20-30% from your diplomatic success?

Yogol wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:31 pm Kentucky goes a certain percentages to Union every turn, by default.

Maybe the percentage shown is the sum of the default move towards Union plus the 20-30% from your diplomatic success?

I think the table shows Kentucky going 36% to the Confederates.....not to the Union.

Yeah, I'm playing as the Union and the Confederates got the 36%

And did Kentucky immediately secede?

yes. They jumped to 11% south leaning and joined at the end of my turn.
I was not remembering the strat guide clearly and even investet 200mpp on them in my turn

Looks like this might be an issue with the manual

The 10% chance of a 20-30% boost is on top of the usual 7-10%, giving a total range of 27-40%. That being the case, 36% is a lucky but not impossible result.

Apologies for the confusion.

- BNC

oooooh! now that makes sense! so there is actually a real (still small) chance to flip them.

Because it has to be a one hit otherwise the union would invest against it

Thanks!

Beriand wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:04 pm And did Kentucky immediately secede?

I saw the same 36% shift happen and yes it looks like once Kentucky goes >=1% to the Rebels it secedes.