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Quick guide / overview what what I am will be showing.

There are many opening moves for Japan. Each one can and will effect another location on the map.
For example a mass invasion of the DEI on turn 1 might slow down the capture of oil, the Philippines and/or the Solomons due to less units in that area.

So do not think you can do any of all the options and mix and match. Each one will or may cause another to no be able to be performed.

Hopefully that makes sense if not I will keep trying.

Also please keep in mind other have thought of more options I am sure...so the shown options are not the only ones available just the ones I use and have tried.

Lets begin.

Yes you heard it right...in one turn.

THOUGH keep in mind it is NOT guaranteed. You have maybe a 60% chance to take it.
So how do you do it...

You first land the 12th army next to Manilla. Then you move down 3 battleships next to Manilla to support the attack from Japan.
I suggest the Yamshiro, Ise and Hyuga since they each use only 1 oil.
That will be 30 surface. You could send 2 of those and a CA with 8 so you have 28 surface attack as I believe surface attack is cut by 1/3rd and maxes at the strength of the land attacking unit. The current army has an attack of 8 so you should just need 24. I have tested this a few dozen times and that seems to be the values.
NOW you have to bomb the unit with the air units on Formosa. There is a ground attack (12th air) and a tactical bomber (5th air) there. Bomb once with the Ground support once...then twice with the tactical.
IF you get lucky and damage the US division odds are Manila will fall. IF not then it will be a toss up so there is a few more things you can do. I will do them all just in case.
1) Move the Zuiho CVL from the Japanese mainland to right outside of Lingayen and ground attack the division.
2) Move the Ryuho CVL from the Palu Islands to right outside to Manila and ground attack the division.
3) Move the Hosho CVL from the Japanese mainland to stack with Ryuho. This will give the ground attack carrier support...not sure what this does to be honest. It does not seem to change the odds.
4) Load the Southern Army HQ in Quang Ngai onto transports and sail next to the 12th army, but do not stack on anything.
5) Change the Ground attack (12th air) to mission to support your attack on Manila.
6) Lastly move a patrol group to one hex up from the 12th army and shore supply the unit so it recovers 5% of its efficiency for its first attack.

It should look like this: ]
You should have 4 to 1 odds unless you successfully damage the division then you can get 5 to 1.

NOW attack.

You get one of 4 outcomes...
Best, good, gooder, worst.

1) Best you will make the unit retreat on turn one and the 12th army can move it. The Philipines wills surrender and you can free up your fleets and units to attack elsewhere.
2) Good you will make the unit retreat on turn 2...BUT your army will NOT be able to move into Manila...
You will need to transport a unit to take the city...normally I use 4th Mixed Bde off of Saigon to invade with. It is a 50% experience unit so not good for and invasion and attack.
3) Gooder, you will overrun the unit on turn 2...BUT your army will NOT be able to move into Manila...See above.
4) Worst, you fail to dislodge the unit.
This is the ugly one...now you have to land in 2 other ports still and blockade Lingayen. This will cost you 50 LC and more ships to blockade so slow you down in the Solomons.

In the test game I got option 3...
First attack was 3 to 1...killed 6...second attack was 5 to 1 and overran the unit.
NOW this cost me 40 LC BUT freed up my navy...that would be stuck around the Philippines for 3 to 4 turns. Plus keeps the pesky Davao small corps from bothering your other invasions.


AGAIN keep in mind this will now effect your other fronts.

I will post up the what I call, "standard" Philippine invasion tomorrow.

This is my normal Philippines attack.
No risks just the base.
It requires 2 division level units and 9 surface ships to blockade ports.

The 2 divisions I use are the 56th division at sea by Busan
And the 4th Mixed Bde at sea by Siagon.
Why?
Well the 56th can only reach the Philippines for invasion...and the 4th Mixed is the lease experienced unit at sea in the area. Both the invasion will not end in any attacks so it is not worth landing a marine unit.

Best is to land with the 4th Mixed in hex 64,53 and move toward Manilla. That way you capture the strategic resource for a 1% more production.
Next land in Aparri with the 56th and move south one hex toward Manilla on the road. If you move two hexes down you risk the Philippine army moving toward Aparri to cut your supply. Unlikely but possible your call.

Next you Naval attack Manilla with the 5th Air Div and 12th Air Div on Formosa.
You can even attack with the CVL Ziuho but I have never seen it do any actual damage in 10+ attack attempts. Better to not use the efficiency.

Lastly you can move in your name to blockade, Manilla, Ligayen and it is your choice but Daveo.
That small unit can make attacking other places a pain if it reinforced the DEI or the Solomons.
I suggest ships in Japan perform the blockade so that other ships closer to the DEI and Solomons can head there.

Turn should end like this...

Some like to land with the Army near Formosa around Aparri...
For me that will cost you 20 more LC...but will likely capture the Philippines 1 turn earlier.

On turn 2 you can now send 1 or 2 armies to Aparri and march south to Manilla.
By the time you get there the units should be weak enough that they can not resist an attack and the Phillipines will fall turn 3 or 4 the latest.

After that the armies you transport to China.