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Fall Grau 2.28
Jeremy (Axis), Ben (Allies)
Turn 1
After we finished the last game Ben and I discussed the state of the scenario. Ben’s been doing a variant of the same strategy over and over again for the last, at least 3, matches. I only recognized it this match but it essentially comes down to getting to Illinois as early as possible in the scenario in order to fight one big decisive battle in the centre.

As we saw in that match this is super effective. Essentially the Allies can’t reasonably retreat from this position, and they end up in a head to head fight with the Axis when the Axis are at their maximum power and the Allies have seen less then 50% of their forces. Done properly the Allies will break and then lose before they are ever really in the game.

The solution Ben has gone for – and I think it is an interesting one – is that the various rifle squads have been moved from the replacement system to the on-hand pool. There are now close to 10,000 rifle squads in each of the Light Rifle, Rifle & Rifle AT- pools. The Replacement rate for each of these has been very significantly reduced.

The net effect is it should be extremely difficult to destroy the Allied Army in the early part of the game but the Allies are actually less able to keep up with endless losses if things go long.

The New York Supply point should also have been fixed and it is now possible to cross the straits of Mackinac with an engineer, so it is significantly harder to fully cut North America in two.

OK so know I am the Germans and what is my plan? Well, I think, partly for playtesting reasons, I’m going to go with a variation on Ben’s plan. That said I should probably expect Ben to be much more willing to be aggressive in his defense. My strategy against Ben had become something close to a given against the Axis because the goal was to try and preserve the Allied Army for as long as possible in order to get past the critical period between turns 20-40. Here we have probably made it so that the Allies will survive that period. Ben can afford to fight this out to keep me away from the Industrial cities, but he can’t afford to have the attrition rate be too lopsided.

So, I’m going to go with a similar attack except I think 1 Transport TO is actually well worth it. I’ll take a hit to the supply level. What I know that might not be as clear to Ben is just how much I had to strip every front just to find forces for the main battles. I’m going to try and not let Ben get away with that (i.e. I want to pressure everything of value hoping to make it difficult for the Allies to find enough spare troops to cover it all adequately) and extra troops from taking a TO option will help with that. Nonetheless ultimately, I want to get to Illinois to fight the decisive battle, even if I can’t destroy the Allies in the early game here if I can put a serious hurt on them Ben should have a tough time recovering in the later game.

So, Quebec is attacked, it might be more of a diversion but that assumes Ben locks it down. If he tries to defend it on the cheap, I have the option to keep pushing. The one thing I do need to keep in mind is that Quebec is very vulnerable to a mid game counter attack.

Charleston to occupy the south, partly because there are a lot of Industrial Cities here but also loads of rail repair units to be captured.

Galveston is my final target and this is expected to be the heart of my offensive. I probably don’t try for Paducah specifically but set myself up to stretch Ben along the super rivers in the interior looking for weak points and then launching attacks that way. I expect to cross the Missouri and sweep north, line up along the Mississippi and then cross into Illinois more from the east looking weak points.

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:32 amAfter we finished the last game Ben and I discussed the state of the scenario. Ben’s been doing a variant of the same strategy over and over again for the last, at least 3, matches. I only recognized it this match but it essentially comes down to getting to Illinois as early as possible in the scenario in order to fight one big decisive battle in the centre.

If I remember right our previous matches were before we nerfed the Great New York Encirclement strategy. In these matches getting into Illinois was the outcome rather than the strategy- the game was already decided because the Allies had been so badly damaged in the northeast in the first 12 turns that the Axis had a free hand for the next twenty turns.

The solution Ben has gone for – and I think it is an interesting one – is that the various rifle squads have been moved from the replacement system to the on-hand pool. There are now close to 10,000 rifle squads in each of the Light Rifle, Rifle & Rifle AT- pools. The Replacement rate for each of these has been very significantly reduced.

The key thing here is that the net squad replacements are a lot lower. I moved 15% of the notional full-game Allied replacements to the pool- that is 90 x 0.15 x base rate. At the same time, I reduced the base rate not by 15% but by 40%. That means in a typical match where the Allies average a replacement rate of 66%, they will now receive .66 * .6 + .15 = .546 or just under 55% of the base rate on aggregate throughout the scenario. At the beginning the Allies will have a lot more squads, in the middle of the scenario about the same, and by the end a lot fewer. It's worth noting that the higher the replacement rate, the more pronounced this effect; this will tend to make industrial cities less important- though they can hardly be ignored, as the Allies need tanks, planes and artillery as well as riflemen.

The New York Supply point should also have been fixed and it is now possible to cross the straits of Mackinac with an engineer, so it is significantly harder to fully cut North America in two.

The Strait of Mackinac thing really is in the detail. If one has reached Lake Michigan and Lake Huron then it's not that much of a stretch to reach this point as well. In our last match, I cut this (then non-existent) route off from the south only about three turns after I reached Lake Michigan.

Here we go again: a mirror match with Jeremy after a quick defeat for his Allies. Only I've just made a major change to the scenario which makes this far from a mirror. Now the Allies have deep pockets for squad replacements from the outset, making early losses easily replaceable, but the long term resiliency of Allied infantry is reduced substantially. For the Allied player this doesn't mean that units can be thrown away, as having a hole torn in your OOB even temporarily is bad news, and in any case infantry without support from heavy equipment is not much use. Rather, I think what this means is that the Allies can much more readily stand and fight a set-piece engagement with the Axis. Always one must watch for nasty encirclements and traps, but I'm going into this match ready to really duke it out with the Axis. Bring it on.

Turn 1:
Oh hey, I recognise this- maybe this is a mirror after all. Jeremy shot for the exact same ports as I did for his opening: Galveston, Charleston and Quebec City. There are some differences, of course, and Jeremy's been much more conservative with his airborne troops in particular, dropping two at Quebec City to speed out of the gate there and keeping the landings at Charleston close to the coast.

My first question is whether there's any mileage in a counterattack at Quebec City. I can get a flank bonus on 4. Fallschirmjaeger late in the turn and hit it with my powerful air force, perhaps save the troops in the city itself from immediate destruction and make the exploitation here slower and more complicated. I'll go for this and, having so committed forward, also bring up two divisions on the southeastern side of the St. Lawrence to block the immediate drive south, too. Otherwise, nearly everything north of Baltimore just drives directly towards Quebec City.

I take a little leaf out of Jeremy's book in South Carolina, blowing the bridges on the northern and southern borders, but in practice Jeremy has no mobile units until next turn and so is not going to exploding out of the gate here.

I also have the option to counterattack at Galveston. Here, the airborne division is isolated and in bad shape and I could perhaps do some damage- remember of course that I fumbled this when I was the Germans and didn't get the port until turn 3. This area is never defensible for the Allies once the port has fallen, though, so I have to be careful I'm not bamboozled into giving up a lot of units (Jeremy lost two divisions here once I got things straightened out). I go for this as well, bringing up other units close behind, which can react depending on the situation after Jeremy's second turn.

Partial success at Quebec City as I give the Germans a going over and force them out of the hex but don't advance, which means no escape for the garrison. Galveston is better and I'm able to actually evaporate the division here. This puts the city back in supply, robs Jeremy of his flank bonus and means he must land significant reinforcements here very soon to avoid disaster.

The handful of Allied units in the south east move to screen the Charleston landing

golden delicious wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:35 pm If I remember right our previous matches were before we nerfed the Great New York Encirclement strategy. In these matches getting into Illinois was the outcome rather than the strategy- the game was already decided because the Allies had been so badly damaged in the northeast in the first 12 turns that the Axis had a free hand for the next twenty turns.

I think you might be thinking of a match you played with Matt. Versus me the last two matches where:

#1 You landed at Boston and I bottled you up but left far too much of a defense there for far too long. I suffered a defeat south of the Missouri River after staying to long in a counter attack and was never able to stop what was a good 75% of the German army crossing the Missouri and then the Mississippi and storming through to Chicago and then points beyond.

#2 You landed at Galveston and Baltimore and I played a poor game breaking my Allied Divisions down to Brigades in the early game and having them overrun. Because of this I was forced to fight with most of my army in the East and never managed to find the army I needed to stop you crossing into Illinois (I think around St. Louis) where it became clear that you would soon crush me between your two armies. I was very frustrated in this match and gave it up. The lesson I needed to learn in this match was to keep strong forces together even if it meant some open flanks.

The Strait of Mackinac thing really is in the detail. If one has reached Lake Michigan and Lake Huron then it's not that much of a stretch to reach this point as well. In our last match, I cut this (then non-existent) route off from the south only about three turns after I reached Lake Michigan.

If I could have sent forces across here I would have done so. I had even sent an Engineer up this way to see if there where some of those shallow water hexs that we can cross (there weren't). I would have fed a National Guard Corp and the 1st Canadian Guard Corp through this way if it had been an option. Their existence pressing down on the western flank of Detroit would at least have complicated your advance on that city as you would have to find forces to cover the flank.

Turn 2
Ben is going full on aggressive right from turn one. There is a lot of Americans in the Northeast as well as a fair number of Canadians in the Canadian East and even Americans in the mid west and almost everything is heading for Quebec City. His most forward units are practically at the gates this turn.

Similar story with Galveston with Allies starting to advance toward the city from even very distant points. If you are not in California and you are an Allied unit you probably started heading for the front. Many of these units still won’t arrive for a long time. Even if your movement is 15 some of them have 200 hexes to travel but it will see them arrive eventually and Ben will have the bulk of his army on the front line a few turns faster then waiting for the rail transport to rise. The trade off is that they arrive low on supply and readiness having never had a chance to build up.

Meanwhile Ben uses his rail movement to block the supply point in El Salvador from going all the way through north America and providing trace supply to any of my units that landed this turn. That is a problem but not as huge a crisis as one might think as the Axis land with 100% supply so they can go without for a few turns before completely falling apart.

Axis turn is very solid with all the supply points falling and being occupied. At Galveston I pile about a million divisions into the city so it should be solidly under my control. Charleston is not under direct attack so here the units start spreading out. Quebec City is captured with two Divisions in it plus I swing an Engineer Brigade around to cut off Ben’s most adventurous relief force – might lose it but a sacrifice I am willing to pay at this moment to make sure Quebec is secured. Ben has still got the units just kicked out of Quebec City to try and counter attack but I manage to cut them off as well so I think I’ll hold the city. However, since this situation is by far the most precarious the lions share of the turn 2 reinforcements head here. I think I should be able to solidly secure Quebec City next turn. Bens driving hard for a forward defense but I’m confident that if I don’t make some dumb mistake I should break out. The key is to recognize where I am under pressure and reinforce that area heavily (here Quebec then Galveston with Charleston almost forgotten until the situation improves).

Ben might manage to get me to commit more then he did to Quebec, but I am honestly not concerned about that. There is so much worth taking in this area that I don’t expect that there is a reasonable version of too much here. There will always be something worth attacking and the Allies will always have to defend against this attack. I I send more here Ben will have to defend with more.

Turn 2:
I knew it was a risk going for the counterattack in Quebec and this is proven as the attacking division is now out of supply along with the garrison- though actually I didn't lose any units here and a bit of care sees me evacuate not only the relief force but also two divisions from Quebec City itself. Jeremy (for some reason) admits to shoving copious reinforcements into Quebec, which makes me consider falling back rapidly here, but this isn't my style and instead I plan for another late-turn counterattack with armour rushed forward on a weak, unsupplied German infantry division on the southeast side of the St. Lawrence; this position is actually very strong if I can get my troops up in time and a little delaying action could be enough to make that happen. Ultimately Jeremy can flank it via the Maritimes and northern Quebec but I'd like to force him to do that rather than ceding the valuable territory in upper Canada. I also try to hit the bridge at Quebec City with the RCAF but fail repeatedly.

South Carolina is quiet, with Jeremy concentrating on securing Charleston and with apparently very few forces, but I have even fewer, with most of my reinforcements only reaching the edges of the state at turn's end. Altogether this is ten divisions plus support troops, for now parcelled about the edges of the state in twos and threes. This isn't a critical area of the map and I'm prepared to fall back- but again, not for free.

Out west, Jeremy took Galveston sadly apparently by landing his remaining good infantry without making a major commitment of panzer troops. The question then is whether I take a shot at defending the eastern exit from the port or pull back to Dallas. There are already German troops near Beaumont but I'm betting these are in bad shape after a turn unsupplied, so I decide to try prodding them so as to buy some time to properly demolish the infrastructure, and also keep replacements high until a serious German force appears here (probably next turn). This attack goes OK because there are still no German fighters here and the German division is wrecked, but so are both of mine and I expect to be punished for this on Jeremy's turn.

Quite a different start compared to the last one. I feel sure I'm going to be punished in Texas and I think next turn I will have to cut my losses and run. Quebec is another matter as I have quite a lot of strength here, and while Jeremy doubtless has a couple of panzer divisions to play with, I'm now settling into some quite strong positions and I think he will have a bit of work to do if he wants to kick me out of it.

Allied troops pushed to their limit at Houston

Turn 3
All looks to be in order this turn. Allied counter attacks don’t amount to much and I push off the beaches with what seem like nice solid lines and no real danger to my newly acquired supply points anywhere.

Quebec sees some Allied units destroyed by rampaging Axis forces. Ben tried very hard to take down the key bridge south of Quebec City but it held and now I have an engineer on it. I’d say this front is the only one where I am slightly concerned as the swarms of Allied forces are now arriving and I reinforced Quebec City by the least amount this turn. Probably need to make it more of a priority next turn but there was no infantry to land and other fronts have been starved of Panzertruppen while there already are Mechanized forces in Quebec.

In the South East I have still not made contact with Allied forces, except garrisons. Here the advance has been the furthest and I am spread somewhat thin. I’ve chosen to take one hit to supply levels (-4 global supply) for +4,000 sea transport this game. It’s a lowish number but not as low as Ben went and represents a reasonably large boost to the speed at which the Axis land. About 2½ German Infantry Divisions a turn extra.

At Galveston I have broken out to the West and am now up beside Houston and threatening to flank the city while also solidifying the line to the East. Here is probably where I am making my biggest push starting next turn. I suspect that if anything here is wrong with my play it may be that I am being a bit to careful in making sure that I don’t suffer reverses. I’m not that concerned however as my aggressiveness can be ratcheted up in the coming turns now that I am sure that the beachheads are secure. Nice big jump in the loss spread in my favour on this turn so things seem to be going my way.

Quebec City: 90%

[This number is the current Replacement rate. The Allied player starts with a reasonably beefy amount of equipment (planes, tanks, infantry squads, artillery etc.) appearing every turn to rebuild and replenish the ever growing Allied armies. Every 10 turns the Allied player gets a 50% boost to this number which would quickly grow to something absolutely overwhelming if left unchecked. The Axis player can lower this number by conquering "Industrial Cities" which are cities in North America that due to location or size are considered to be important to the ability of the Allies to continue to produce the weapons of war on a mass scale.

Obviously the Axis Player gets replacements as well and as a rule of thumb the Axis replacement rate is probably around 60% of the Allied Replacement rate. This means that if the Allied Player falls below 60% the Axis are (in general) growing faster then the Allies every turn. If the number is higher then the Allies are in general growing faster. An Allied Replacement rate above 70% is reasonably good and one past 100% will win them the game if the Axis player can't knock it lower fairly quickly.]

Turn 3:
OK no great disasters. At Quebec, Jeremy gobbled up the escaped divisions of the Quebec garrison, which is a bit of a surprise as they had made it quite a distance up to the north. This can only mean there are mobile German divisions in this direction which will come around my northern flank in due course, but the terrain here is awful and not suited to panzers at all. Otherwise he hasn't even followed up to Trois Rivieres (where my next strongpoint is) or attacked east of the St. Lawrence. There he is merely digging in and hasn't yet pushed into New Brunswick. He's holding the line here with paratroops and this settles matters for me, I opt to immediately attack these important units while they're on the line and I'm here in strength. Jeremy seems content to act on the defensive on this side of the river, but so close to the anchorages he can always reinforce, and rapidly, so I'll keep my infantry digging in on the current line while the armour pushes forward with support from the artillery- at the first sign of trouble they'll pull back behind these positions.

The slow start continues in South Carolina. There are a couple of units showing up on my flanks, outside the ports of Savannah and Wilmington. If these are unsupported they might be pinned against the coast and destroyed. I opt for this at Wilmington, where I see another irreplaceable airborne division forward, but run into an engineer brigade before I reach it. I'll hit this as it's isolated and vulnerable, but then pull back to defensive positions. At Savannah it's a panzergrenadier division, which suggests his intent is to push rapidly west, though quite why this unit moved up into the ZOC of my reserve division is unclear. With precise Axis intentions and strength unclear I'm mainly consolidating, digging in and blowing bridges this turn, aiming to block all the road routes out of the state one way or another

Texas is the worst situation. Here, I'm clearly overmatched by the Axis, with six German divisions in contact with me including another panzergrenadier division, so it's time I wasn't here. The question is where should I be? Every direction has something for the Axis here: there's the crossings of the lower Mississippi which lead into the southeast, the direct and obvious route north to Dallas, then the southwest with the promise of a couple of cheap industrial cities and opening up Mexico. Besides a couple of divisions that I had to break down when breaking contact, I have seven divisions that can be in this theatre by the end of the turn and another four on their way: this is not sufficient to break into three groups for these three routes, but I could go for two; one will sit around Shreveport and the other north of Austin, giving me the option to converge them at Dallas or send them off to separate objectives if the need should arise. However, disengagement costs being what they are I'm not really able to withdraw the whole way back so for now a lot of these units are sprawled across the country between Houston and Dallas. I add a cavalry division here by rail on the basis that this is as far as it can move, and I have just enough rail lift for this unit type.

My attack in Quebec comes off rather nicely, and two airborne divisions are mauled, leaving me enough time at the end of the turn to disengage and pull back my armour and artillery, leaving infantry in their place in a rather pleasing concave position so there's no way for the Germans to get a flank bonus on any one hex. For good measure, I do finally drop the bridge over the St. Lawrence, though without a tight ring Jeremy will get trace supply even if he neglected to put an engineer on the bridge last turn when I started hitting it. I'm curious to see how hard Jeremy pushes back; I think there are only five German divisions currently on this side of the St. Lawrence, including the two I just hammered. Will he switch his focus from the west?

The Allies keep a close ring around Quebec City while Axis strength grows

Turn 4
Fighting starts heating up, well in select locations. Quebec is the scene of the most intense action though Ben retreats south with his western flank with my forces following up. There might well be some fighting now at the St. Maurice River as that seems to be where Ben is falling back toward. On the East side of the St. Lawrence Ben is launching counter attacks though they don’t go very far. My own attacks here are not yet that heavy. Quebec gets the most forces and might well get a fair bit more again next turn. Ben is offering battle here. At any other point in the scenario, I would hold on in the east and attack in the west with the knowledge that if I win in the West I leverage Ben out of his positions in the east. However, at the very start of the scenario the Allies are so weak that I just want to fight with Ben wherever he offers battle. My only problem here is I can’t be as aggressive as I would like because there is the danger of a tactical reverse with me being pinned to the St. Lawrence.

Sort of a similar story in the South East where Ben counter attacks with some Armoured Divisions out of the north and I immediately begin to engage him.

In the West Ben breaks contact though I find a few scattered units here and there and it appears that Ben’s forces are in a loose semi circle about a turn away from Axis forces – maybe closer if you are mechanized. Axis reinforcements to the west are only a single German Infantry Division but the remainder of the Columbians show up. They will probably be mostly used for flank guard or maybe rail line guard. I have Houston cut off this turn and will probably not wait long to begin reducing it as my rail units have started to land and it is blocking the way.

Finally, I decide to send the Venezuelans to Central America to clear this area. I’m partly being tempted because I am surprised to see Ben send the American 1st Division north away from the Panama Canal. I think this really opens up the Panama Canal as a potential route to get the Japanese ashore, especially if they get any support at all from the landward side. It’ll take the Argentinians and Salvadorians an age to clear the way south but it could be done. I then race maybe a Panzer Grenadier Division south and I could probably get the Japanese ashore and ultimately through the Panama Canal. I’d rather land on the West Coast but that can be very difficult.

Loss Rate: Axis: 6 / Allies: 21 / Spread: 15
[The numbers above are the VP losses the Axis and Allies have each taken and the spread is the difference between them. If it is a positive number then the spread is in the Axis Players Favour and if it is negative then it is in the Allies Players favour. Fall Grau has 1000 VPs on the map so the number represents 1/10 of a percent of the total OOB of each side. So as of this moment Axis losses represent .6% (less then 1%) of their total forces (almost nothing has landed yet so this is no surprise) and the Allies have lost 2.1% of their forces.]

Turn 4:
The Axis are now up in force east of Quebec, with two panzergrenadier divisions on the line. Actually this is a really odd choice as panzergrenadier divisions are fast but they actually have less fighting power than standard German infantry, and the static positions need firepower to crack. I don't think the opportunities for the attack here are great so I'll be digging in and pulling back the armour to rest. This actually looks pretty outstanding as I have three fortified divisions immediately east of the river, then two entrenched with my right flank standing on a lake with rough ground beyond it- and there's no sign of Jeremy moving to flank me here anyway. I have excess infantry so I start work on a second row of defenders on the right but I actually don't think Jeremy will actually attack here. West of the St. Lawrence, a Gebirgs division moved up to Trois Rivieres, but here, too, I have a fortified division blocking the bridge itself and an armoured division in the hex behind. Has Jeremy actually bottled himself up here? I don't see any evidence of the lunge to the west that I was expecting, though a crossing of the St. Maurice in strength is not impossible.

South Carolina is more interesting, as I'm now in contact with German troops in five places, and he actually attacks my armour in North Carolina. There's another division which I can't see which has worked its way north past Wilmington so I think this direction is Jeremy's main drive here so I have the choice between shifting my weight to respond or exploiting his weakness elsewhere. Moving some units forward that weakness evaporates and I find that there's a fair web of German units across the southern and western edges of the state, eliminating any possibilities for hammering exposed pieces, except for a panzergrenadier which has nosed unsupported into Georgia just west of Savannah. I put it out of supply with the two armoured divisions I have here, but really I'm too weak all across this front. I have a new division formed at Mobile which moves here and another arrives by rail; I expect this front to get the lion's share of rail reinforcements for a while as it's the only one which really worries me.

Texas is fine. There were a couple of units I expected to lose which I still have (albeit they've been chased around a bit), and the Axis haven't pushed north at all- only east and west. This affirms my plan for two concentrations either side of Dallas; this turn these are largely in place with five divisions each, with two more (armour all the way from Utah) still en-route. For some reason, there are two embarked Axis divisions off Puerto Barrios in Guatemala. I can easily hit these with B-17s so I fly a unit of fighters down to Belize to support. This is a 100% success with both units destroyed for no loss, though the fighter unit has to end the turn in Mexico as there's not enough move left to return across the Gulf.

I'm feeling overconfident. Quebec looks locked down for the time being. I've avoided a debacle in Texas while at the same time preventing Jeremy getting everything, and things have yet to fully develop in the Carolinas. I think that front, from next turn, is going to be a problem for me and I'm left wishing that some of the divisions just now arriving in Quebec from locations like Chicago had run south instead of north. If Jeremy is smart he'll pour everything in here and easily overwhelm me before I can bring my reserves to bear; already I feel like the troops I have in the state are at full stretch and most are engaged already. Still, I'm on 90% replacements for turn 5, Houston will fall next turn which leaves me at 81% and from there I think it's a long road to the next loss- Charlotte is only a hex behind the front but I don't think it's Jeremy's priority and I think with the changes since the last version of the scenario he may have gone off his focus on industrial cities a bit. It would be cool to go over 100% replacements on turn 10.

Allied forces in their reserve positions in Texas

Turn 5
OK here things start swinging in the direction I am looking for, with one comical exception.

We will start with that as the brave Venezuelan invasion of Central America is under way. Most of this story occurred last turn but the final part occurred on Ben’s turn. Basically, I sent the Venezuelan Corp to Central America. They were supposed to walk ashore since the beaches are undefended. For some reason however they could not do that so I set them to launch amphibious assaults on undefended beaches. While two of these attacks succeeded, incredibly one failed… against an empty space!?! Failed Amphibious attacks use up all your movement so they could not even now divert to one of the other, now occupied beaches meaning they were left in the transports – Ben promptly sent some bombers over and two divisions of Venezuelans where promptly sunk… I am not sure I wanted those guys anyway. I think they were beaten off by seagulls or some such.

In Texas Axis forces take Houston this turn and continue to rapidly expand the front. Only the sheer distances involved are really slowing things here.

In the South East there is some maneuvering around the Georgia border as Ben and I cut each other off but the bigger operation is I swing around the flank of a small Armored Group he has at Fayetteville cutting the whole force off, albeit loosely. It will be interesting to see how Ben react here.

Finally, up in Quebec my forces are strained by the fact that there are really two operations going on here. One on the West side of the St. Lawrence where I am trying to set up to flank Ben out of his defencive positions but just don’t have enough troops for that yet, though more have landed this turn.

Meanwhile there is a second operation on the east side of the St. Lawrence which is pretty much nothing but an all out assault against a line that Ben has been digging in here. It was actually a pretty solid line but I drive Ben back about 1 hex across the whole front. My losses are almost as bad as Ben’s here (though the loss rating does go my way a bit this turn) but, importantly, Ben’s fortified line is gone. Here too this would really be working better if I had yet more forces. This is the most dangerous operation as it is possible for Ben to cut off some forward units here if he can manage a counterattack.

Turn 5:
Like I said- overconfident. I'll start with South Carolina which is the worst; I have three divisions pretty well wrecked in a pocket at Fayetteville. I'll aim to break them out using the two divisions I have loose in North Carolina, but this is going to be rough. To the south, my rather reckless move last turn to put a panzergrenadier division out of supply has me in hot water with one of my divisions out of supply in turn. As in the north, the best way out is through the enemy, so I hit the panzergrenadier division from both sides and hope for the best. To the west, I disengage as best I can and shift a couple more divisions over to North Carolina where I'm most vulnerable- this leaves the route into the deep south wide open but I can live with it- everything between here and Texas is untenable in the long run anyway. Two more divisions rail to NC this turn.

In Quebec, Jeremy hit my nice fortified line pretty hard and basically drove off the whole first line of it. On the plus side, his own troops look pretty battered from the effort so I'm going to hit him back with my armour while the infantry digs in afresh. I'm no longer feeling super strong here and this is ultimately a delaying action like all the rest, but let's keep it up. To the west, there are definite signs of movement from the Axis. As such, I grow my reserve at Malartic to three divisions to respond whichever way Jeremy jumps.

In Texas, I see one apparently lone infantry division inch toward Austin. It's not quite as lone as it looks but it's definitely at the front and I decide to jump on it and eat it with my force here. The Utah armoured reserve has almost reached this sector, and I shift one division west from Shreveport so I should be OK to respond when Jeremy engages me here in response. I also add 2nd Cavalry by rail, again at the extreme limit of its rail movement range.

Mixed results. I sort of rescue a couple of divisions in North Carolina, but I think Jeremy will just expand the trap next turn. In Georgia, I fail to budge the offending German division so I'm in trouble here. In Quebec, I bully a couple of German infantry divisions but don't really improve my position much. In Texas, I do destroy the German infantry division which was forward, but I'm not sure I'm ready to handle the response Jeremy will have ready for me. Above all I think I'm really going to regret this forward defense in the Carolinas. About the only good news is that the nasty panzer division which was part of the original encirclement here is out of supply and fully tangled up in my mess of unsupplied units, and this may hinder the creation of a new, even more impressive pocket on the next turn.

Allied armour pays the price for my too-active defence in the southeast

Turn 6
I throw cation to the winds this turn attempting sweeping maneuvers to cut Ben off all over the map.

In the North I start pushing a flanking move on Ben’s defenders on the West side of St. Lawrence. I end up in a position that actually looks like it might be a trap – pause for a moment and then “screw it” if it is a trap lets see if Ben can close it. I’ve cut about three Divisions off, pinned them to the St. Lawrence. We will see if Ben evacuates using engineers or really does have a trap and tries to cut off my spearhead. This front also receives most of the newly arriving Italian Infantry as I need to relieve the Germans that are doing flank guard duty here.

In the South East Ben extracts some of the units he had trapped at Fayetteville but I destroy one Armoured Division. On the southern flank I want to try and surround and destroy another Armoured Division and I break a PanzerGrenadier Division down into Regiments to try and do that. Not only does it not actually work but now I think these Regiments are just too small and vulnerable. I think this might have been a mistake. We will see what Ben does to them.

In the South West Ben launches an audacious counter attack, surrounding and destroying a German Infantry Division. I swing back at him cutting off (but not completely surrounding) this force. I’m kind of dangling an SS Panzer Division but we will see if Ben can extract this force or punish me.

Turn 6:
Two German divisions swing around into the rear of my Trois Rivieres position this turn, putting three divisions out of supply. I think I can reverse this though, let's see. Yeah, looks good. First, I throw an engineer over the St. Lawrence fully in the rear here so I go back in supply. Then, I push an infantry division in reserve over into the hills and find Jeremy's flank protected by an engineer brigade. The whole RCAF will hit this position. Other Canadian divisions come out of reserve and block the immediate route south for the German armour here. The major downside of this is that it makes holding the east bank of the St. Lawrence critical for me. there, Jeremy has succeeded in shoving my right flank back and opening the road into Maine. Fortunately Jeremy is still pushing forward with weak light infantry here and I have fairly high hopes of smashing them to pieces with my armour.

North Carolina is better than I expected, as Jeremy contented himself with eating my one trapped armoured division and left the rest of my force to recover a bit. This means I now have eight divisions in fighting condition in the state. I am, however, being overwhelmed over in Georgia, where Jeremy outnumbers me about two to one. Perhaps against my better judgement, I stay in place here and keep hitting his panzergrenadier division here, while shifting one division across from the west to support here (the only one in range. This leaves zero divisions blocking the route west, suggesting I should perhaps reduce my strength in North Carolina. Two divisions shift to the vicinity of Spartanburg, leaving me a good deal less powerful here. I opt to disengage entirely here, leaving the whole eastern half of the state wide open, while I hold a (temporary) line running north from Charlotte to protect that city a little longer. Three fresh infantry divisions rail to Richmond to deal with whatever advance Jeremy attempts here next turn.

Jeremy turned out to be a good deal stronger than I'd planned for in Texas, and moves to gobble up my whole western force here. I really don't want to lose FOUR more bloody divisions out here but I'm not sure I have any choice. I move to set up a counterattack and feel frankly sick about it. I'm not convinced I can make this work at all- that SS Panzer division is just going to keep going through my units like butter. I settle on hitting a key division for one round in the hopes of 1) putting the SS division out of supply and 2) then getting my one committed division out, while the rest of this force (three more divisions) pulls back to Dallas to lick its wounds. In better news, I happen to receive a new division at Little Rock which joins my force here, back up to eight divisions. Of course I only get one round so the division I did my stupid (unsuccessful) attack with is lost too.

Well, my operation in Quebec came off at least. I also railed up two more divisions here so I think the best Jeremy will be able to do is cut himself out of the trap. However, I've lost two armoured divisions already and three more are about to go. I can't really keep that rate up even if I do keep all my industrial cities.

Turn 7
This turn starts off looking fantastic for me. Ben got an early turn ending and I was in a position to punish the heck out of him and then…

Well in Quebec even though the Commonwealth were cut off they just would not budge. Attack after attack failed and Axis losses outpaced Allied losses. The turn comes to an end with some danger at various parts of the front West of the St. Lawrence and in particular 1st Panzer just hanging out there in real danger of being cut off and destroyed. Actually, the more I look at this the worse it gets. 2nd Canadian fought its way out of a pocket destroying a German Brigade in the process and Ben can cut off four divisions and a brigade. It’s a bad reverse from what started off looking so promising. I should be able to restore the situation, but it might be some time before I can start up a real offensive here again.

In the South East the turn starts off well with what’s left of Ben’s cut off Armoured Division imploding when it tries to fight its way through a Panzergrenadier Regiment. I reform the Panzergrenadier Division but now we are mostly just lining up as I try and push to surround Charlotte. If Ben can keep up railing forces here, I think this becomes something of a slog but I actually don’t think he can keep railing forces here even though he has begun to get reasonably high rail transport.
This is because the one shining light of the turn which is the West where Ben mostly fails to escape the trap and a bunch of Allied Divisions are destroyed and more are cut off. Here at least San Antonio ought to be ripe for the taking and maybe Dallas as well.

Houston 81%

Turn 7:
A real mess in Canada. Only one division is actually out of supply, but my three divisions at Trois Rivieres are seriously in trouble. It looks like I can rescue them though- especially if I get a couple of rounds- and hopefully kill a panzer division in the process, as my good troops outside the pocket are well placed for counterattack. I'm also able to isolate an infatry brigade off to the west, further damaging the Axis position here. On the other side of the St. Lawrence, the situation is still stable and I continue counterattacks on Jeremy's battered infantry. I add a Commonwealth armoured division here by rail this turn- this leaves just one Commonwealth division not yet committed

The southeast is rapidly turning into another case of time I wasn't here, as the Germans are now bearing down on me in really considerable strength in both NC and Georgia, and this situation doesn't look chock full of opportunities for furious counterattack. Well disengaging is one thing but where do I go? I can't run fully out of reach like I can in the west, as there's simply not the space for it. I decide to put the fresh divisions off the rail split by brigades into a line along the Roanoke which covers the direct route north, then the remaining five divisions at Charlotte (less one left behind to cover the extraction) pull back to the Appalachians and the western routes through Virginia, joined by two divisions which had been at Spartanburg. The force in Georgia (again less a division covering the retreat) pulls back to a decidedly temporary position at Macon while I set about blowing all the bridges in the state. This force is now only three divisions and decidedly unequal to the task of protecting the whole lower south, but should suffice to keep Jeremy gobbling up Atlanta in too short order. Five more fresh divisions rail up behind the front here, distributed somewhat but with a bias to the north

In Texas, Jeremy largely contents himself with devouring his prize from last turn- and a fine prize it was too, although my one armoured division is still intact and will attempt to overwhelm a Colombian cavalry division in a vain attempt to get out. He's also adjacent to San Antonio, which triggers my three Mexican divisions at Monterrey into action, to destroy the Rio Grande bridges and then prepare a rough defensive position in front of the latter city. One division will I think race to Corpus Christi on the offchance I can hit the bridges there, too, before the Axis get them. Two mobile divisions head north from Mexico City by road to join them, but if Jeremy makes a concerted attempt here he'll get the city. Back in Texas, I clean up my positions slightly but mostly just rest and dig in. Jeremy must move on Dallas at some point; with my eastern flank on the Red River I feel safe from an immediate disaster here.

A triumph in Quebec- albeit not complete. I destroy the panzer division and the trapped brigade, but run out of time to break the rather tenuous supply line over the St. Maurice river, held only by a battered engineer brigade- that would have put several more German divisions out of supply. Still, Jeremy's position here has gone from advantageous to desperate in two turns. I also have a good turn on the other side of the St. Lawrence, though German strength here is building and I'm not sure how much longer I can keep it up; SS Das Reich just unloaded at Quebec City.

Allied forces pull back to a new line in the southeast

Turn 8
I feel like I have not managed to put out the kind of destruction on the Allies I was hoping for. We have gotten to the point where broad front offencives no longer make sense purely in terms of trying to capitalize on how weak the Allied units start as. There are exceptions but by this point in the match if the Allies have held on they are beginning to have some level of supplies.

Quebec remains a problem area. Ben manages to partially capitalize on my poor position though not as badly as I had feared. I lose 1st Panzer Division. At this stage I am looking to continue a slow push toward Montreal while slowly relieving the light forces on the East of the St. Lawrence. The Paratroops should be pulled back into reserve while I try and clear a road to the east to funnel Jager and Mountain Divisions through to extend the flank toward Maine.

The Southeast is a surprise as Ben just retreats from all of his positions in the area. I was sort of thinking he had me moderately stalled here. I suspect that his flanks where hanging and he assumed I had more to exploit that with then was the case. I quickly follow up by surrounding Charlotte and will hopefully take it next turn. I really don’t know where Ben is down here but will continue to advance outward until I locate him. Targets are Atlanta and Norfolk. I push north only if resistance is light. Same story with the Appalachians and the Tennessee River. On the other hand, I push past Atlanta heading for the Mississippi against any and all resistance.

The South West is mostly just moping up and repositioning this turn. San Antonio is surrounded, and the assault begins next turn I should think. Dallas is an unknown. I have large forces lining up just south of it and will move to engage next turn. I have no idea if it is well defended or not. Ben has sent his reinforcements either to Quebec or the vicinity of the Southeast front for the last few turns. I have not seen anything for the West, and I just destroyed my fourth American Armoured Division in the West this turn. There might be very little here, or this might be the next battle in the West. We will find out next turn.

Loss Rate: Axis: 16 / Allies: 42 / Spread: 26

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:01 am
I feel like I have not managed to put out the kind of destruction on the Allies I was hoping for. [....] I just destroyed my fourth American Armoured Division in the West this turn.

Come on, man.

Turn 8:
OK I got a bit of a going over in Quebec this turn as the superior strength of the Axis force starts to tell, but on inspection things simply aren't that bad and I think I can continue to hold this position a while longer. I get bold and decide to see if he's left his west flank wide open, advancing my reserve armoured division from Malartic into contact, then think better of this but wind up leaving an HQ exposed on the road here. Oops. Well, otherwise this front shapes up just fine. I will eventually be levered out of these positions but it's a slow slog for the Axis. My newly deployed fresh armour digs in blocking the St. Maurice river crossing, face to face with SS Das Reich. I rail two more US infantry divisions here this turn to keep things ticking over.

In the southeast, Jeremy follows up at a leisurely pace, not coming into contact with my new positions at any point and not taking Charlotte- it's a characteristic of Jeremy's Axis play that he's fastidious about ensuring Allied units are out of supply for a turn before being destroyed, but when it comes to industrial cities the dividend for the Allies holding an extra turn far outweighs the limited amount of equipment which might return to the pool from the garrison. I see strong units everywhere at Jeremy's strength is quite compact so I see no opportunity to counterattack successfully, so I content myself with digging in on the line drawn last turn, with some slight adjustments. I don't expect a serious challenge to these positions next turn, either, as I think Jeremy is determined to take his time, which is just as well as they really are not ready. I add four more divisions here by rail, one of them armoured.

In the southwest, the situation is more or less as expected. San Antonio has been encircled but not attacked and otherwise Jeremy is slowly following up to my positions at Dallas and Shreveport. The one detail I was not ready for (but should have been) is the beginnings of probes over the Mississippi crossings, which I have largely undefended at this point. I strip the Gulf Coast of its one mobile division to block these and hope that there are no follow up forces (or, crucially, engineers), and add a division from Shreveport at Vicksburg as a reserve. So far this situation isn't totally critical but it could be very soon. the remainder of my Texas force (seven divisions) stays put on the basis that Jeremy can't really compromise it in a single turn, and it keeps him from getting Dallas immediately.

A markedly quiet turn- probably the quietest since the start of the scenario, as I'm mostly waiting at a distance from Jeremy's strength. I wonder if all my aggression early in the scenario has made him cautious? It's certainly had the effect on me, however my strength is building rapidly now and will reach its apogee over the next few turns. I'm smarting from losing no fewer than 1,800 Shermans so far in the scenario, mainly in the outright destruction of five divisions, but it's worth noting that I've received about 1,500 in replacements and most of the destroyed divisions are either back or in the reinforcement queue. My replacements remain at a high 81% and will not fall, as the effects of losing San Antonio and Charlotte will coincide with the turn 10 boost, giving me 98% replacements- an astonishing figure really. Various cities are no doubt on Jeremy's shopping list: Atlanta, Norfolk, Montreal, Dallas and Monterrey, and I expect him to make up some of his lost ground before turn 20.

26th and 28th US Infantry scramble to block the Mississippi crossings. Note the now undefended anchorages at Biloxi

golden delicious wrote: Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:14 pm

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:01 am
I feel like I have not managed to put out the kind of destruction on the Allies I was hoping for. [....] I just destroyed my fourth American Armoured Division in the West this turn.

Come on, man.

Sort of split the difference here. It some ways I was a bit to pessimistic about how well I was doing. The Spread is pretty good for this moment in the scenario. On the other hand you do explain on your turn that the situation is not nearly as bad as you maybe felt due to high replacements. I was also thinking that I might maul and break up Allied resistance more effectively considering your forward defences with low supply units but outside of the West that really did not happen.