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When playing the Germans, is there incremental value in adding CV to the EF box, or is the only thing that matters which of the three statuses you reach? Is CV that you send beyond what is necessary to achieve the Fluid status, considering the randomization factor, just wasted?

Also, how large is the randomization factor? Is it likely to add or subtract hundreds of CV or dozens?

Looking at the living manual, the three figures are subject to some random movement. Keeping numbers above the listed numbers helps increase the chance of that outcome. For example, keeping well above the stable number should mean no more than a one hex advance in any turn.

23.3.3. SOVIET FRONT CONDITION AND ADVANCE
There are three possible Front Conditions; stable, fluid and critical. For each front condition, there is a minimum amount of total combat value that needs to be present in the EF box. If the amount of Total Combat Value of German units on the Eastern Front is enough for the front to be considered Stable, the front line will move no more than one hex column per turn. If the front is Fluid, a multi-hex advance is possible and greater German casualties will occur. When the situation is Critical, the chance of a large advance is greatly increased, as are German losses. The Total CV levels required for the front to be Stable, Fluid or Critical are displayed on the EF screen and are based on the time of year (lower intensity periods due to bad weather require lower CV values to remain Stable or Fluid) and the number of divisions required (the larger the number, the greater the required CV to be Stable). Each turn there is a random factor used when checking to see if the front is Stable, Fluid or Critical. Just before EF combat is resolved the EF German CV total is randomized:
Total CV=total+Random(total/2)-Random(total/2);
The revised total is compared to the Stable/Fluid/Critical limits to determine EF combat results. Note that having just over the amount needed for the front to remain Stable does not guarantee that on any given turn the front will be considered Stable.

Don't know how big the randomisation factor would be sorry