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I can't suss this out
Germany has 1649 manpower production points.

The manual says:

'Each nation has a separate manpower pool. Polish and Czech manpower generated for the Germans is placed directly into the German pool. The number of men added to each nation’s manpower pool is determined each turn by taking the number of available manpower factory points times a manpower production multiplier.'

The German multipler in '41 is 1 and 6 in '42.

Do the Germans really only get 1649 new men in '41 added to the pool each week and a short 10k in '42?

I know that we need to add in 1% from the disabled pool as well.

Basically yes. You start with a large trained manpower pool, and some new units will get mobilized over time with some men already in them, but yes, you won't get many men from "production" in 1941. Later some events increase the multiplier for limited stretches of time, there are Hiwis, and disabled returnees to supplement the increasing production.