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I wrote this as a flavor Intelligence report for a scenario I am working on, and I wanted to share it here for comments and corrections. The scenario is a notional modern Black Sea / Southern MD conflict. Information is based on the game's database and Wikipedia.


Subj: Russian Threat Briefing

This brief report will provide an overview of Russian precision guided munitions (PGM) which may be encountered in this theater. While the Russia-Ukraine war caused Russia to expend a high number of PGM’s, we assess that Russia hold substantial reserve weapons for a NATO conflict contingency. Any Russia-NATO conflict is very likely to involve large numbers of PGM fires. In a Russia-NATO contingency conflict, Russia may use PGM’s in massed strikes, or to respond quickly to targets of opportunity.

Kalibr [3M14]: is a Russian Naval launched land attack cruise missile with a range of approximately 1300km. Nearly all Russian Naval units of Frigate size and larger, and nearly all Kilo-class submarines, are capable of launching the Kalibr. There are an unknown number of Kalibr reloads available to the Black Sea Fleet. This missile may be used individually or in small groups against land targets of opportunity, or part of massed strikes.

AS-23 Kodiak [Kh-101] is a Russian air launched cruise missile (ALCM) with a range of approximately 3000km. The AS-23 Kodiak is launched by Tu-160 BLACKJACK and Tu-95 BEAR bombers. In this scenario, there are approximately 300-350 AS-23 Kodiak reloads available to Russian Long Range Aviation. This missile will very likely be used for massed strikes against a range of Military and CIKR targets.

Iskander-M [9M723]: is a ground launched near-hypersonic ballistic missile with an approximate range of 500km. A SS-26 Stone battalion will field both Iskander-M and Iskander-K missiles. In this scenario, there are 16-32 Iskander-M missiles in the theater. This missile will likely be used to target high value land targets, as well as employed against difficult SEAD missions. The missiles short relative range limits its utility against targets deep within NATO territory.

Iskander-K [9M729]: is a ground launched subsonic cruise missile with an approximate range of 2500km. A SSC-8 Screwdriver battalion will field only Iskander-K missiles. In this scenario, there may be up to 200 Iskander-M missiles in the theater. This missile will very likely be used for massed strikes against a range of Military and CIKR targets.

Kinzhal [Kh-47M2]: is an air launched hypersonic air to surface missile, capable of striking land and naval targets out to 2000km. The Kinzhal is launched by MIG-31K fighters. In this scenario, there may be 30-40 Kinzhal missiles in the theater. This missile will likely be used to target high value naval and land targets. Use of this missile will be constrained by the limited number of MIG-31K’s in theater, and long turn-around times between missions.

Craigkn wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 2:24 am This brief report will provide an overview of Russian precision guided munitions (PGM) which may be encountered in this theater. While the Russia-Ukraine war caused Russia to expend a high number of PGM’s, we assess that Russia hold substantial reserve weapons for a NATO conflict contingency. Any Russia-NATO conflict is very likely to involve large numbers of PGM fires. In a Russia-NATO contingency conflict, Russia may use PGM’s in massed strikes, or to respond quickly to targets of opportunity.

Kalibr [3M14]: is a Russian Naval launched land attack cruise missile with a range of approximately 1300km. Nearly all Russian Naval units of Frigate size and larger, and nearly all Kilo-class submarines, are capable of launching the Kalibr. There are an unknown number of Kalibr reloads available to the Black Sea Fleet. This missile may be used individually or in small groups against land targets of opportunity, or part of massed strikes.

AS-23 Kodiak [Kh-101] is a Russian air launched cruise missile (ALCM) with a range of approximately 3000km. The AS-23 Kodiak is launched by Tu-160 BLACKJACK and Tu-95 BEAR bombers. In this scenario, there are approximately 300-350 AS-23 Kodiak reloads available to Russian Long Range Aviation. This missile will very likely be used for massed strikes against a range of Military and CIKR targets.

Iskander-M [9M723]: is a ground launched near-hypersonic ballistic missile with an approximate range of 500km. A SS-26 Stone battalion will field both Iskander-M and Iskander-K missiles. In this scenario, there are 16-32 Iskander-M missiles in the theater. This missile will likely be used to target high value land targets, as well as employed against difficult SEAD missions. The missiles short relative range limits its utility against targets deep within NATO territory.

Iskander-K [9M729]: is a ground launched subsonic cruise missile with an approximate range of 2500km. A SSC-8 Screwdriver battalion will field only Iskander-K missiles. In this scenario, there may be up to 200 Iskander-M missiles in the theater. This missile will very likely be used for massed strikes against a range of Military and CIKR targets.

Kinzhal [Kh-47M2]: is an air launched hypersonic air to surface missile, capable of striking land and naval targets out to 2000km. The Kinzhal is launched by MIG-31K fighters. In this scenario, there may be 30-40 Kinzhal missiles in the theater. This missile will likely be used to target high value naval and land targets. Use of this missile will be constrained by the limited number of MIG-31K’s in theater, and long turn-around times between missions.

1. The Kh-101 stockpiles have been estimated to be actually quite low. Wreckage from missile downed during the recent strikes on Kyiv and western Ukraine have revealed they are using missiles manufactured in March 2019. Assuming they use the oldest ones first, and with a production rate of three per month, that would mean 24-30~ or so missiles are left in their stockpiles. The number of Kh-555 is unknown, however, and these would be used too.

2. Kh-555 is missing.

3. A September intelligence report from Ukraine claims Russia has 200 Iskander-M left. It is not known how many are actually deployed or used, however, but increasing the number is an option. The thing says "200 Iskander-M" in the Iskander-K section, so I wasn't sure what your intentions were. I just wanted to point this out just in case.

4. The Kinzhal is kept in a central location where the MiG-31Ks are based, which is in the Baltic last I heard. Depending on how your scenario starts, these may need to be transferred to the southern region prior to use.

Estimate of the use of Russian high precision missiles (Islander, kh101, kalibr) in Ukraine
https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/sta ... 1853845504

Great graphic - thank you. The munition numbers noted in my scenario briefing is non-historical, the scenario is a NATO vs. Russia where we imagine Russia produced more weapons.