SITUATION
We’re back in the eastern end of the Mediterranean, where the situation has calmed down a bit after furious fighting with the Syrians and Russians earlier last week. Now we’re being directed to hit their diminished forces again, this time to knock down the Syrian regime’s government infrastructure so comprehensively that they sue for peace, or at least adopt a purely defensive posture.
The Nimitz carrier group, which has just resupplied after coming through the Suez Canal, is our most potent surface force, but our main striking power is actually the air wing in Cairo, which is packed with F-15Cs, F-15Es, F-16s, and assorted tankers and support aircraft. We’ve also got a pile of F-16s up at Incirlik in Turkey, Marine F-18s at distant Souda in Greece, and a hodgepodge handful of British planes still left on Cyprus, until they rotate elsewhere.
Other than the Nimitz battle group, we’ve also got the Bainbridge group (a CGN and five friends) in mid-ocean, a pair of SSNs NE and SE of Cyprus, and a lone British frigate, the Iron Duke, in a somewhat exposed position SE of Cyprus.
The enemy forces have been ground down throughout Syria, but they still seem to have decent cover from older SAMs (SA-2/3/6) at bases and cities around the country. Fighter cover is greatly reduced after last week’s massacre, but there are still reportedly enough MiG-29s/25s/23s around to cause problems, with MiG-21s ready to pop up and hassle the unwary. The Russians are still dug in around Latakia & Tartus, and it’s there that we can expect the heaviest modern air defences, although nowhere near as many as before. Fortunately, they don’t seem to have anything more modern than MiG-23s for immediate defence.
THE PLAN
At the moment, we need a bit more information about the air defence situation, before we commit any strikes. Therefore, ELINT and Recce aircraft are ordered to fly to the area, while F-15s from Cairo perform major fighter sweeps in the south, and F-16s from Incirlik probe from the north. These provocations will hopefully give us more information about what we’re facing, and cut down more of the Syrian air force.
The Nimitz group is ordered to head NNE towards Syria at modest speed, with the intention to conduct strikes in the afternoon and overnight, before turning WNW and heading for the Aegean. The Bainbridge group will proceed towards Cyprus, hunting for subs along the carrier’s eventual exit path. She has no significant strike power, other than a few TLAMs which are already in range, so has no need to hurry towards Syria. Our two SSNs are ordered to continue patrolling the narrow seas between Cyprus and the mainland, screening for subs that might be moving in and out of the Tartus/Latakia area, and the Iron Duke will also assist in the area, although staying much closer to the Cypriot shore.
The AO USS Cimarron gets a bit of an exception, when she is ordered to detach from the carrier group. She’s a slow mover, and might limit the mobility of carrier group, and there doesn’t seem to be a pressing need for her to get closer to the fight. So, she’s sent NW towards Crete, with a (weapons depleted) Burke and a Perry in attendance as escort. She’ll cross paths with the southbound British oiler Fort Grange, and they’ll both benefit from some MPA cover to hunt for submarines.
MORNING AIR OPERATIONS – TURKEY/ALEPPO
The morning starts off right, clear and sunny, as our ESM planes start picking up the emissions of loads of Russian jammers near Latakia, and assorted Syrian radars and SAM sites throughout the country. (Interestingly, there’s a Tin Shield radar down by Damascus, which makes our analysts wonder if there’s an SA-10 in the area.) There are plenty of enemy fighters up and about too, and our F-16s probing south from Turkey soon find themselves aggressively engaged by MiG-29s from Aleppo, which are pushing north and even coming into range of our SAMs. We keep the Patriots quiet for now, and scramble more F-16s instead.
The fight goes well for our pilots, who knock down the four MiG-29s, and then head down to the Syrian border for four more MiG-23s. Probing south, they get chased away from Latakia by a long-ranged SAM shot, while the Russian MiGs there refuse to come out of their SAM umbrella and play. Stymied, they head inland, shoot down two MiG-23s out of Abu ad Duhur, strafe a lone radar, dodge a MANPADS shot, and burner home to reload. A few of them recklessly hang around and try heading further south to engage more MiG-29s, but the Russian MiG-23s interfere, almost catching us in the flank, and our attempt is driven off without any hits.
ALLIED ASW
We’re given a reminder that the Russian subs are still a real danger, when the Fort Grange’s escort up near Crete manages to detect an SS only a few miles ahead of the tanker. Helicopters are sent hurrying in, and they soon claim a kill. This makes me very glad that I’ve given the Cimarron an escort on her way to Crete, since there are probably more subs out there.
(This was a complete AI engagement – detection, engagement, and sinking all done by the allied side. Very nice! As for the remainder of the scenario, both the tankers make it through the rest of their journey unmolested.)
MORNING AIR OPERATIONS – EGYPT/DAMASCUS
The F-15 sweep starts arriving in the Damascus area shortly before 0700Z, with two waves of six Eagles plus an EA-6 jammer, and engages in a furious fight with the Syrian CAP, trying to knock them down with Sparrows while staying out of SAM range. This goes well, but the Syrians launch another wave of defenders, this time with MiG-25s in the mix, and the fighting continues. Those get knocked down too, giving the opportunity for our pilots to make an ill-advised dash to pick off the MiG-25RB which is orbiting near Tiyas. This draws SAM fire, and an angry response from more MiG-25s, and it is only the presence of our reserve flights which allow us to cover the retreat.
Another wave of six Eagles arrives at 0737Z, and finds nothing in the air over Damascus, so they move NNE into the gap to try and engage some MiG-29s near Hamah. Some land just before our planes arrive, dammit, but we manage to get the other two, and draw some of the Russian MiG-23s into the fight. SA-10 shots and freshly scrambled MiG-21s interfere, but we eventually manage to shoot down three of the good Russian pilots, and extract ourselves intact. As a final act, the pilots head back to Tiyas and kill another recce Foxbat.
Suddenly, to everyone’s surprise, the air is clear, and the only thing flying over Syria seems to be a pair of Russian Su-24s, one jammer model and one ELINT model, loitering at high altitude in the SAM umbrella over Latakia. I’d really like to get rid of the jammer, but attempts to get in at them will simply get our Eagles shot by the SA-10 long before we’re in range. What’s an Air Force guy to do? Call the Navy, of course…
Two sleek F-14s launch from the Nimitz, each pregnant with a pair of massive long-range Phoenix missiles. These easily have the range to reach in from outside SAM range and swat the impertinent jammer. Confident pilots guide the Tomcats, while their RIOs smugly activate the mighty radars, only to find they can’t get a lock! The wretched jammer is preventing them from firing the missile at long range! Get closer? SAM. Go in low? Target is too high. Pop up? SAM. After much dodging and weaving and trying different things the pilots finally settle on coming in from the east, as high as they can in the escarpment radio shadow, pulling up in an afterburner climb, watching their RWR light up with the incoming SA-10 warning, and hoping they can lock on, fire, and dodge down again before the SAM arrives. Finally, it works and the jammer goes down in flames.
Unfortunately, a second one is up and radiating before long. Well if we can get one, we can get the other, right? Wrong. This time the Phoenix launches, but the SAM arrives before we can drop below the horizon, destroying the Tomcat, while the Phoenix hurtles away autonomously and kills the second Fencer. Mutual kill. Dumb move.
STRIKE PLANNING
By mid-day, strike planning is well underway for a two-pronged strike in the afternoon. The F-16s from Incirlik and the F-18s from Crete will attack from the north, to engage government targets at Aleppo and Hamah. The British will also come in from the north, bringing their slower-moving Harriers down the Euphrates to engage the more lightly-defended bridges along the river. In the south, the F-15Es and F-16s from Cairo, along with half the Nimitz’s F-18s will launch a hammer-blow at the targets in the Damascus area. Latakia and the Russians are to be left until after dark.
BELOW THE WAVES
While the target allocation is ongoing at the various headquarters, there’s some quiet excitement at sea. The SSN HMS Torbay, creeping quietly between the north coast of Cyprus and the Syrian mainland, gets a faint direct path sonar contact, which almost immediately resolves as an SSK. The crew has a good bearing on the contact, but the range hasn’t resolved yet. The captain ponders the plot for a moment, reasoning that if this is an SSK, then it’s quiet, and therefore reasonably close. It’s also reasonably slow, and unlikely to outrun anything. It’s worth a shot. One of their few remaining Spearfish is fired down the bearing, at a sedate 55 knots, while the Torbay holds her breath to listen. Tense minutes pass, and then the target starts accelerating, all the way up to 17 knots, but that’s not remotely enough. The Spearfish accelerates to 80 knots, closes in, and sinks the Kilo with a very satisfying bang.
AFTERNOON STRIKE
Naturally, the time we’ve chosen to begin our afternoon strike is about the same time that the Syrians decide to sortie more MiG-29s out of Saiqual. This time it’s the turn of the Tornadoes on Cyprus to engage, followed by some of the F-14s from the Nimitz. More keep popping up, and by the time the sharp engagement is over, our pilots are claiming eight enemy planes shot down.
The strikes actually proceed as planned. Up north, the enemy largely ignores TALDs fired into the Aleppo and Latakia area (although they do light up every radar to have a look at them), but they can’t ignore the inbound HARMs. The older SAMs in the area are reasonably vulnerable to anti-radiation missiles, and follow-up strikes with Mavericks manage to further disable the SA-3s which are trying to engage with their optical trackers. Nobody goes down to low altitude, and the targets at Aleppo and Hama are pummeled with LGBs from high altitude until they are destroyed.
The British flight down the Euphrates gets a bit more exciting, when MiG-21s start scrambling from Jirah and Tabqa. Fortunately, the same Victor tankers that topped up the Harriers also dragged in three Phantoms from Cyprus, so our planes are well escorted. The combination of BVR missiles and front-aspect IR homers gives a tremendous advantage to our side, and the interceptors are defeated without loss.
Down at Damascus, a HARM barrage stuns the defenders, allowing us to move in and finish the SAM sites with Mavericks. Some F-16s had been detailed to go in low with cluster bombs, and tackle damaged SAMs, but most of them are gone before they arrive. They do make a run on a wounded SA-3 site south of Jaramana, and they manage to get away with it too, despite some MANPADS and light flak. After that, the F-15Es are free to move in and pound the area from high altitude, and by the time they are done all the local primary targets, and all but one of the secondary targets have been destroyed.
A few MiG-21s try to interfere, but they are even more outclassed here than they were in the north, and our escorts make swift work of them. Some of our CAP lingers to engage a few more -21s and -29s that pop up in the next hour or so, but the rest of the strike retires and recovers unmolested.
EVENING COUNTERSTROKE
Despite the battering they’ve been taking, the enemy does make an attempt to strike at our naval forces. At 2200 local, AEW starts reporting bogeys lifting off from Latakia, and within minutes there are ten of them, headed WSW in the direction of HMS Iron Duke. The Duke’s been quietly patrolling off the SE corner of Cyprus, listening for subs with its towed array, and it is all alone and unsupported. It does have SeaWolf missiles, but only 24 of them, and ten attackers could easily saturate that.
Most of our planes are down, readying for the Latakia strike, and that only leaves a pair of F-15s on CAP. Our pilots swing in to engage, while controllers start scrambling Harriers and Tornadoes from nearby Cypriot airbases, and directing them towards the incoming Su-24s. The F-15s plunge into the fight, but the leading Fencers are already launching their missiles, and eight of them are inbound before our missiles start hitting home. The charging Eagles and the first two Tornadoes manage to kill eight of the ten attackers, but they are forced to disengage by the SA-10s, and the last two fleeing planes make it back home.
Fortunately, the Harriers and the other two Tornadoes manage to shoot down the incoming missiles before they reach the Iron Duke. Speaking of which, how did the enemy even find the Duke, creeping along quietly, radar off, in the dark of night? Well, actually they didn’t. Russian ELINT gear had picked up hints of the distant Bainbridge group, on the far side of Cyprus, which did have its radars on, and it seems like they were launching to engage that. The Duke just had the misfortune to be on the same general bearing. An interesting study in unintended consequences…
LATAKIA NIGHT STRIKE - PREPARATION
Our planning staff have been assessing the remaining regime targets. There are some more bridges on the Euphrates, three facilities in Homs, and four in Latakia. Everyone is confident that the British can handle the remainder of the bridges, and Latakia is so heavily defended by modern Russian SAMs that it will take a major strike to defeat it. Homs is also reasonably well defended, with five batteries of older SAMs providing coverage over the area, and if we have to spend HARMs here, then that will reduce the chances of breaking into Latakia.
Therefore, the staff recommend engaging the Homs targets with cruise missiles. The older SAMs are poorly equipped to handle them, and there is the possibility that they might arrive without being detected at all. Command concurs, and a small number of our remaining TLAMs are allocated to the targets. The missiles roar off into the darkness, with a TOT of 2230 local, and at the proper time excited radio chatter breaks out from forces in the area. Later reconnaissance will reveal that all targets were struck in a satisfactory fashion, without the use of any of our planes.
Latakia itself is still heavily defended. At various times, our ELINT assets believe they have detected a total of three SA-15, two SA-17, an SA-6, and a pair of SA-3s in the region, plus three different SA-10s. All our assets, with the exception of the British, are directed to cracking this target.
STRIKE!
The attack begins with simultaneous HARM barrages, from Incirlik’s F-16s and Marine F-18s in the north, and Cairo’s F-16s and half of Nimitz’s F-18s in the south. At first the SAMs seem to gobble them up without any trouble, but when there are a dozen missiles incoming at each of the major batteries, then leakers start to get through. Radars start flickering out, and vehicles get crippled or knocked out entirely.
At the same time, the other half of Nimitz’s F-18s have crept east of Latakia, down in the radar shadow of that helpful escarpment, and launched a salvo of their last SLAMs, which come cruising over the hills to land amidst the damaged SAM sites with crippling blasts. As the stunned crews try to react, a few more brave F-16s with Mavericks close in at high altitude, well outside of the MANPADS and AAA envelope, and hit remaining SAM elements. None of the fragments of the long-range SAM units seem to be able to engage them, and that clears the next phase to begin.
With the SAM sites as supressed as they’re going to be, the F-15Es pull up out of the radar shadow, and launch glide bombs towards the government targets, and then the last of the Strike Eagles arrive to finish off government, airfield, and port infrastructure with LGBs. Explosions ripple through the Latakia area, and within minutes the last of the targets are smoking ruins.
CAPITULATION
The British are still flying towards their distant Bridge targets when word comes in that the Syrians want to talk. The damage is too severe for the regime to withstand, and it seems like they’re looking for a ceasefire. With any luck, Syria is out of the war!
Many thanks for the fun scenario.
Well, a lot fewer then Med Fury #4... 