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Hello,

I am conducting a strategic review on my 104th turn (28-11-1943) of the 43 campaign. I would love some input on my reasoning.

As it stands, my score is:

Air superiority 2
Industry damage 15
Terror 13

I am however not that interested in the score per say but at my long term impacts on Germany.

My target prioritization has been:

1. ball bearings (Primary)
2. Rubber (Secondary)
3. Synthetic fuel or engines (tertiary)

In short, I hit ball bearings, if none are available I hit rubber, and then fuel or engines. Weather is the main driver of those decisions as I work hard to get at least one strategic daylight raid everyday, even in inclement weather. I do not shy away from deep strikes but when I make them they involve efforts by all my air forces that can interact (meaning the 15th is sweeping hard into Northern Italy and Southern Germany).

Damage to those industries:

1. Ball bearings: total 117, damage 75
2. Rubber: total 351, damage 75
3. Synthetic fuel: total 2017, damage 19
4. Engines: total: 1416, damage 4

Armaments is showing 0 total but I understand that is because I have at least one critical industry at its critical level.

Calculations of impact on dependent industries

Manual gives me: Dependent Industry Output Adjustment – DIOA = DIO x (CIO/CIL)
Hence:

Impact of ball bearings = factor of 0.234

This means that an aircraft assembly or armament factory, assuming everything else being equal, has a 23.% chance of producing every turn.

Impact of rubber = factor of 0.702

This means that armament factory, assuming everything else being equal, has a 70.2% chance of producing each turn.

Compounded effect on armament production: I assume those probabilities 0.234 x 0.702 = 0.164

Meaning that due to my overall damage, an armament factory has an approximate chance of 16.4% of producing every turn.

Is this sound? Have I in practice reduced armament production by 83.6% in Germany? I have been pounding the units in Italy relentlessly and none of the frontline units have more than 10 AFV (or any AA for that matter) but there is no rail network in Italy which could explain their equipment shortages, hence I wonder what it looks like on the Germany side?

The cost have been pretty significant, with 2363 lost aircraft (and 1648 lost pilot) versus 2483 lost aircrafts (772 pilots) for the Axis. However good rotation of units has meant that morale can keep up with my efforts.

I am not there yet, but I envision that in another 30 days I will struggle to both keep those 2 industries suppressed and keep expanding my target list. My goal is to keep both industries suppressed until June but the opportunity cost lingers in the back of my mind.

Another question I have is the following:

KayBay over a decade ago wrote extensively about his analysis. https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 5a372346c

He writes that ball bearings impact not only armament and aircraft assembly but also engine and avionics factories (see the graph he produced below). Is that actually the case? I could not find anything in the manual to support this. If it does, then that would be great as it means I can anticipate aircraft shortages for the axis sometime in my future!

<img src="https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/down ... ?id=703762" alt="TargetEffectsArray.jpg"/>

I am not a mathematician, so I can't help you with that. KayBays article is one of the better reads on this board and anybody who hasn't read it, should. The only thing that I would add to your plan is to make sure you hit the nearby RR target(s), nearest to the factory that you are trying to destroy. That way what is made in Schweinfurt, stays in Schweinfurt.

My thoughts from gameplay experience ...

Engines are the short pole for axis aircraft production. Since there are few (if any) surplus engines***, engine factory damage at any level reduces the number of planes built. This become more apparent if you play the Axis side and fiddle with production. I have less success with ball bearings, aluminum, etc ... since I assume there are axis reserves in warehouses and it takes some time to exhaust the surplus. Just like with fuel/oil ... shutting off the tap is good ... but the impact begins once the reserves are burned off.

*** and of course, surplus engines for obsolete types are useless, whereas surplus aluminum and ball bearings never go out of style. Who knows how much the axis has?

Rubber is critical for armaments as you know. I think this reflects in two ways ...
1) Lower armament production equals lower flak production (which is a direct gameplay consequence). I don't think armament production impacts troops in the slightest. In fact, one can paint Italy red (or not) and there seems to be no difference in breakout timelines from the Gustav line (guessing those dates are mostly hardcoded). Regardless, Italy looks better in red.
2) I developed the understanding somewhere that critical rubber impacts axis repair rates across the board. In other words, at critical rubber factories heal at reduced rate (and maybe damaged aircraft return at a reduced rate also). Anyway, I always open my campaigns with an all out rubber offensive ... I can't help myself.

The fastest way I have won a campaign is pounding electricity to 90% damaged. It is rather tedious chasing down remote power plants (thank you 15th air force), but it is so cool to see the industry score start to rise multiple points every day as you get close to 90%. Of course, I still hammered rubber first.

As with all Grigsby games, there is so much going on under the hood that is not in the manual.

Just to correct a point I made previous. I was playing BTR campaign as axis ... where Anzio and D-Day happened on their historical dates. However, I did delay the Allied AI breakout from Anzio and through the Gustav Line. For example, Rome fell to the Allies on 19-Jun-44 vice the historical date of 4-June-44. Therefore, you should be able to accelerate your Italian timeline. Then I found forum entries that support this ... although days/weeks are the norm, not months.

Computerblue wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:59 am Just to correct a point I made previous. I was playing BTR campaign as axis ... where Anzio and D-Day happened on their historical dates. However, I did delay the Allied AI breakout from Anzio and through the Gustav Line. For example, Rome fell to the Allies on 19-Jun-44 vice the historical date of 4-June-44. Therefore, you should be able to accelerate your Italian timeline. Then I found forum entries that support this ... although days/weeks are the norm, not months.

Right - your airpower defense/attack strategy can only delay/accel the dates for Normandy breakout, Westwall breakout, Gustav Line breakout, and Gothic Line breakout. Days yes, weeks maybe, months very unlikely.

Also, Axis troops in good order can delay the capture of nearby locations as they retreat to the next defense line.