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I've spent many hours analysing and making doctrine settings for the NFZ Baltic scenario. To be honest, I can see no way to win this.

Firstly, the V.1307 changes seem to have altered the balance of A2A combat firmly in favour of the Russians. As I understand it, you can ignore the database range for missiles, as they are theoretical only. The new mechanics appear to work on the basis that a missile burns fuel for the time given in the DB, then runs out, coasts and loses way. Missiles that rise to a great height, then drop on their prey can gain some extra range from the force of gravity. All of this is influenced by whether the target is moving towards or away from the firing platform and at what speed. I did a number of calculations based on this model and came-up with the following ESTIMATED practical ranges for a range of commonly-used weapons:

AIM-120D AMRAAM: 12-19 nm + drop from height (50%?), burn time 26 secs
AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM: 3.4 nm + drop from height, burn time just 5 secs
Meteor : 10 nm + drop from height, burn time 14 secs
MICA : 3.2 nm + drop from height, burn time 5 secs
Alamo A : 2.9 nm, burn time 5 secs, minimum range 2 nm, therefore almost unusable and SARH to boot
Archer : 0.4 nm, burn time 1 sec, minimum range 0.2 (later Russian version 1.64 nm)
Patriot : 18 nm + drop from height, burn time 25-30 secs
Alamo B : 2.33 nm, burn time 4 secs
Alamo C : 10 nm, burn time 16 secs, SARH
Alamo D : 7.5 nm, burn time 12 secs
Adder B : 21.1 nm, burn time 32 secs
Adder C : 35.6 nm, burn time 54 secs
Amos : 60 nm, burn time 91 secs
Growler : 18.2 nm, burn time 19 secs
Grumble : 17.25 nm, burn time 18 secs
Gargoyle : 18.2 nm, burn time 19 secs
Gladiator : 28 nm, burn time 36 secs, SARH
Giant : 123.3 nm, burn time 111 secs, SARH

On this basis, only those NATO aircraft with AMRAAM D missiles can be considered competitive and even they are outranged by the better Russian fighters.

I then ran several instances of the Simple A2A Engagement Quick Battle, pitting 6 F-15Cs with AMRAAM C-7s against 6 Su-35s with Adder Bs. The first time, I experimented with the new settings and put my Eagles on Auto-Evade, setting half of them to fire in the NEZ and the other three at 10 nm. It didn't go well. The NEZ trio loosed at an impractical range and all six of their AMRAAMs petered out well short. I was then put on the defensive by my Auto Evasion setting and lost four planes before the Russians ran out of Adders, despite much ducking and diving. The surviving pair then closed and downed two Flankers for one loss (to cannon after being out-turned). Avoid Auto-Evasion like the Plague!

Next, I re-ran it as the Russians. I found that the AMRAAMs were effective well beyond 3.4 nm, mainly because of the drop from height imponderable. I quickly lost four planes, but (using a 20 nm firing distance), hit back to destroy all six Eagles for one further loss.

Finally, I switched back to the American side and initially went for a 25 nm firing distance with Auto Evasion off. By letting the Russians fire and outrunning the Adders by Afterburnering away, I eventually managed to wear them out. Closing, I destroyed two without loss, but then ran out of missiles. The AMRAAMs were able to get kills at 25 nm, but not reliably and I found that the Flankers could still Burner away from them at 20. So much for the official 60 nm range! Fact is that I could not guarantee being able to devote the necessary level of attention for these tactics in a large, complex scenario with stuff happening all over the map. With 1307, things are just too complex to be handled by Missions and the need for manual control has been increased. An example is that, for some weapons e.g. Sidewinders, you can't set firing distance low enough on WRA, so the only options are Manual fire only (lots of attention) or watch your missiles fall short.

Other issues:

To reduce Kaliningrad's defences, you need to overcome some impressive SAM cover. However, you have precisely FOUR HARMS available!

There are all the usual logistical issues, with ammo for your F-22 Raptors severely limited.

The hapless PCFGs and minesweepers off Lithuania are going to die and can't even be RTB'd, as they lack a base in the first place (and it isn't possible to assign one). TG 60.3 is dangerously spread-out, so I hope the new Formation Editor works so I can close them up. They really need to retreat and link up with the Donald Cook. Delaying the start of hostilities until all vulnerable assets are out of danger sounds like a good idea...but will events allow this?

There are practically no NATO SAMs in the Baltic States.

There is also a bug associated with trying to adjust Patriot firing distances via WRA. You can edit the Stingers and the first two Patriot categories, but any attempt to touch the third one crashes the game (I nearly lost my save file and a lot of hard work).

So, I'm not hopeful. Any thoughts?.

Hey fitzpav, this is a tough one. I haven't taken look at it since the tiny update, but from my memory you have a LOT of glide bombs (SDBs) and British Spear missiles, as well as several flights carrying JASSMs or Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG stealth missiles. I was able to overwhelm the airfield and the surrounding SSM launchers in a first strike by concentrating pretty much all of the ready aircraft carrying these weapons over central Poland (tankers are key here), than sending them north to pop up and drop their ordnance before turning back and screaming south to avoid the counterfire. My hunch is that this strategy may work even better with the new missile kinematics. In my playthrough the SDB/Spear salvoes overwhelmed the SAMs and and destroyed the SSMs around the airfield, while the cruise missiles cratered the runways.

I kept the PCFGs alive by keeping a CAP of F-22s and F-35s over them and over the Baltic states to shoot down any AShMs headed their way.

I think your instincts are right with TG 60.3. Need to consolidate them and join with the Donald Cook before risking an engagement.

I did find the few Tomahawks the US ships carry to be useful. You can use them to pick off some of the more exposed Russian S-300 batteries or jammers by a skillful use of terrain masking. The LOS tool is really helpful in analyzing what low-level threat the S-400s can see.

Thanks, Joel. Sounds like as good an approach as any. When you don't have the tools you'd like, I guess you have to make the most of the ones you do have. I'll report back in a few days once I've played this.

As Joel mentions, this is a case for OCA (Offensive Counter Air) vice DCA. Shut down the SAMs and strikers as quick as you can.

B

If I may point something out, I think your preliminary ranges for the AAM missiles are inaccurate, particularly the Meteor one. The Meteor has a ramjet engine, meaning it sustains power far longer than other missiles and has much better kinematics. It should have the highest practical range of any missile on that list.

Overall, I think you are selling your AAMs a bit short.

Bob,

You may well be right. The problem is that Tiny has left us all in the dark and the only way to find out what various weapons can now do is trial and error - which can be risky when playing a big, complex scenario like this one. The AMRAAM's decline from being a veritable 'Queen of the Battlefield' to a deeply-flawed weapon is a striking example. I'm sure I'll get the chance to try-out the Meteor during this playthrough and will bear your words in mind.

Bart,

Regarding taking out the SAMs and strikers quickly, my instinct is not to be the one who starts hostilities here and to get my vulnerable assets clear before someone else does. Your comment suggests this approach is unlikely to work. Perhaps I'm just too cautious a player.

Vince

It is a balance. You're right that you're not supposed to initiate hostilities, but you need to make some educated assumptions as to when they will start and be ready immediately to hit and hit hard. You're correct about the vulnerable assets, but the instant the Russians get uppity, your strikers should be spooling up.

I played most of the first hour this afternoon. Most of it was spent on recon, which gave me a good idea of the Russian surface fleet, SAM and SSM dispositions.

I got the tanker over the Baltic out of the way, but protecting the ships and SSK looks a lot harder. The Formation Editor does seem to be getting TG 60.3 to close-up a bit, albeit gradually and they should rendezvous with Donald Cook in another two hours if I get that long. U-35 is trying to get as far away from the Russian SAGs as she can while peace lasts and then hopes to cause some trouble for their missile boats, but this will take rather a while. The minesweepers off Lithuania and quite possibly the old Polish corvette basically won't be able to get clear and need air cover but, right now, I can spare exactly one F-22. The longer I hold off, the more combat-ready planes I'll have (though this could be true for the Russians as well).

As I'll probably be able to mount two strikes at least, the plan is to hit Chernyakhovsk first, much as suggested by Joel. It is less well-defended than Baltysk and success would close the runway. I know exactly which aircraft I'm going to use and each flight has a relative launch time and a reference point to make for and fire - it should be reasonably well co-ordinated.

Hopefully, by then I'll have most things clear of enemy anti-shipping missile range, which just leaves air and ballistic missile strikes to worry about.

I also had a play with the LOS Tool, which I hadn't used before. Performance issues mean it should only be used for low-flying calculations. Seems that there is no Growler coverage of the N approaches to Baltysk, though Gladiators and Greyhounds plug the gap to an extent. RGM-109Is fly low enough to avoid the former and the latter are SARH, so maybe. Then again, I might need those missiles against the Russian Navy.

All told, this could take a while to play, so please be patient...

I look forward to your playthrough. A lot has changed since Northern Fury in 94, the 2022 tech is a massive step change in many ways.

B