Simulation shows Ireland can’t defend against unarmed plane

[lumiere]

Article uses CMO to show Irish Air Corps cannot stop even Cessna by themselves alone.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/simulat ... med-plane/

[HalfLifeExpert]

Well it certainly isn't a good look.

What's the cheapest (relatively speaking) Gen. 4 Fighters on the market?

I once heard it was the Grippen, but maybe some second or third hand F-16s could be an affordable choice for Ireland. A squadron or two would be enough I think.

They don't need top of the line stuff by any means, but enough to deal with low tech/terrorist threats is a must.

[JambalayaSauce]

Romania put in an offer for some second-hand Norwegian F-16 MLUs for a touch over $16 million per airframe (32 airframes @ $514 million USD), per this article: https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/12/ro ... 4-million/ . From what I understand, factory new JAS 39C/Ds are going for about 30 million apiece. The Gripen C/Ds also seem to be cheaper per flight hour compared to the Falcons, and being new they wouldn't have thousands of hours on the airframes and engines as well.

Regardless, both choices would be perfectly adequate for defending Irish skies, especially at a squadron strength like HalfLifeExpert pointed out. 30-40% down for maintenance, an armed pair left on alert status, and the rest being used for training. Any larger threat would likely be met by the combined forces of the EU bloc + the UK, plus the other North Atlantic nations throwing their hats into the ring.

[Rob322]

I don't think the Irish have had such a capability for many years. They had a few Hurricanes during WW2 and a few Spitfires after. I guess their Pilatus trainers can be armed with machine guns.

According to Wikipedia, they held a defense review in February 2022 and included in their LOAs (List of Ambitions) that they'd eventually acquire a proper jet fighter. Might as well wait. A few more years and those second hand F-16's might be even cheaper.

[kevinkins]

Next time I'm in Ireland I will bring this up at the bar. The vacant stares will be priceless.

[thewood1]

They might be better off with some area SAMs and a bunch of MANPADs.

[Nikel]

Next time I'm in Ireland I will bring this up at the bar. The vacant stares will be priceless.

Then show them this video displayed in the Russian public TV some months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SnTkc0r6gk

Ireland will be wiped out by a Sarmat or a Poseidon just because it is next to Great Britain

[tylerblakebrandon]

They might be better off with some area SAMs and a bunch of MANPADs.

SAMs don't work for Air Policing. The PR optics are bad when shooting down a dentist in his Cessna when his equipment malfunctions.


M-346FAs or FA-50s may be a better option for Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4597124

[kevinkins]

Next time I'm in Ireland I will bring this up at the bar. The vacant stares will be priceless.

Then show them this video displayed in the Russian public TV some months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SnTkc0r6gk

Ireland will be wiped out by a Sarmat or a Poseidon just because it is next to Great Britain

Ok, buy the pub a round and they might understand the Russian to be Gaelic and then roll their eyes.

[Nikel]

Ok, buy the pub a round and they might understand the Russian to be Gaelic and then roll their eyes.

I thought they would blame the English

[StellarRat]

The only thing that would worry Ireland is a threat to attack the Guinness Brewery, otherwise they have little to worry about. Love it there. I'm going back some day.

[Zaslon]

They didn't have plans to buy a few advanced trainers for Air policy a few years ago?

Like FA-50, M-346...

[mmacguinness]

Wow! Someone actually ran a simulation to show the blindingly obvious?

Ireland has never had an effective air defense, ever.

IAC PC-7s have 2 hard-points for rocket or machine gun pods, but they are slower than most jets.
The Magisters they replaced had machine guns and hardpoints bu weren't any better for air intercepts.
And the Vampire T55s before them? By the time they were bought in 1955, the RAF had already started withdrawing it from front line service.
Spitfires were bought post WW2, Most of the Hurricanes in service with the IAC during WW2 were actually salvaged aircraft that had crashed in Ireland, few were purchased and these only became available because they were early versions being retired by the RAF.

How many pilots and aircraft are required to maintain a 2 plane QRA on a 24/7/365 basis?

To staff a position full time 24/7/365 requires 5 people.
A 2 plane QRA element would therefore require 10 pilots.
These pilots would be assigned full time with no time for training or other activities.
But pilots need training and flight hours to maintain proficiency.
So, what proportion of time would the pilots spend on QRA duties, and how much on other training/proficiency maintenance activities?
Let's say 25% and 75%.
This implies a need for a minimum of 40 pilots.
These pilots will fly 200 hours p.a., 8,000 hours in total each year.
So, a minimum of 25 aircraft with service lives of 8,000 flight hours, plus 4 or 5 attrition replacements, would be required every 25 years.

At $75 to $100 million a pop for twin-engined fighters (most of the flights would be over the Atlantic) thats $2 to $3 billion purchase costs, plus weapons, operations and maintenance costs at $20,000 or more per hour.

Several hundred million $ a year at least, just to take pretty photos of Tu-95s.

Recent experience has powerfully demonstrated that against a properly structured integrated air defense system aircraft are just targets.

Ireland's "air policing" need is simply to identify and escort any Russian Tu-95's that enter its identification zone. Despite alleged neutrality and non-membership of NATO, there appears to be no concern about movements of NATO aircraft, notified or otherwise, in Ireland's ADIZ.

This could easily be done, and far more economically, by a few QF-5E's, say 2 on QRA and others on standby and/or maintenance. How many total? Depends on their remaining flight hours and forecast flight hours p.a.

The money saved by not buying expensive targets could be used much more usefully to buy a proper IADS that would be far more certain to shoot down hostile expensive targets.