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I am creating a South China Sea Scenario. It is a considerable distance from Australia bases (RAAF Darwin, Tindal, and Curtin) to the South China Sea. It would take a lot of tanker support to allow fighter ranged aircraft missions from there to the South China Sea, particularly as far as the Spratly Islands. And the availability of tanker support is not unlimited and may be needed more so elsewhere.

In a conflict in the South China Sea (north of Natuna), do you think fighters based in Australia would participate to a significant degree?

I doubt fighter aircraft would be sortied in and out of bases in Australia as this could pose a real logistical nightmare. However, the RAAF may forward deploy more assets to RAAF Butterworth or to friendly airbases near to the AO. That would be my prediction in such a scenario as the RAAF doesn't have that large of a tanker fleet to my knowledge.

I am working on a very similar scenario, here: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 3&t=396700

In this scenario, US and Allied air bases are all blasted; Indonesia and Malaysia declare neutrality and close their airspaces, and the whole strike package has to route via PNG to get to the SCS. There is a midpoint airport that can be used to muster the strike, but China will blast that airfield as well if you stay too long. Tankers are critical. This means some 4th gen aircraft with short legs – F-16, F/A-18C, are much less useful. Most of the op is managing fuel.

The ultimate goal is to establish an airhead in the PI, from where more fighters can operate, and generate more sorties, but while China is still blasting things with DF-21 and DF-26’s, that is really hard to do. They will run out eventually, then you move your air units closer to the combat zones.

Play the Chains of War scenario pack. You will see via simulation that Australian airbases are too far away.

I did one of the scenarios having aircraft from RAAF Tindal refueling over southern Borneo, but it's a real pain.