UK EW and missile defence 2023
Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2023 1:50 pm
So I started wondering about the ability of the UK to use SAMs defend itself from a Russian cruise missile attack in 2023. Due to defence cuts, we've concentrated lots of assets in smaller number of airfields so that's quite a risk. I couldn't find any pre-made scenarios that covered the UK so I thought I'd try to make one. In fact, I couldn't much in the way of mainland UK defence scenarios at all - maybe I missed some?
Please bear in mind that this is the first time I've tried to create a scenario. And it's very simple and designed only to play as the UK. One Blackjack comes in from the north and fires 12 x AS-23A Kodiak (Kh-101) missiles at Lossiemouth. There's a few units you can play with to defend against the missiles. The main benefit of it might be as a starter template for anyone who wants to create a modern UK air defence scenario.
I started off researching where all the EW radars are, which I've very precisely mapped. Most of them ('RRH' sites) are AN/TPS-77 radars. I also added in the major, relevant RAF bases (those that host fighters, MPA and did host the old Sentry AEWs) plus some US airbases.
Problems: there's no Indra Lanza Long Tactical Range 25 (LTR25) in the database. So if you want to model a scenario where an RRH has gone down, and a stopgap has been deployed (the Lanza being the RAF's chosen solution) then you can't.
I've added some RAF E-3D AEW aircraft - just to see how they perform. They don't pick up the Kh-101 missiles at all - is this accurate I wonder? Of course, these have been sold off to Chile now and we await Wedgetail to arrive in 2024. I don't feel bad for including it in a 2023 scenario because NATO are providing other E-3Ds as a stop gap.
Giraffe radar: no detection of the missiles at all, maybe it can't detect low flying missiles? This would seem wrong. The LOS tool shows that the missiles are within LOS from the Giraffe's location. Giraffe isn't coded right perhaps? I don't know.
Land Ceptor - added next to Lossiemouth. Only mk1 eyeball sensor so needs the Giraffe to work. The Land Ceptor and Giraffe radars are both listed as having the Aster Missile Datalink so I'd have thought they might work together. Land Ceptor does get targetting data from the Patriot radar AN/MPQ-65 but fires very late.
After the Land Ceptor failure I tbought maybe the Navy could save the day - so I added 1 x Type 45 DDG and 1 x Type 23 frigate - they work as advertised. If you want to see how the land based SAMs do then set these to HOLD fire.
After the Giraffe failed to work, I added a US Patriot PAC-3 and AN/MPQ-65 just to see if any SAM detects the missiles - yes, it does very late though it is reasonably effective in intercepting them. Not sure how realistic the late detection is.
Did I get my answer? Yes, we Brits have no reliable land-based SAMs available to protect the assets AFAIK, so it seems that to defend against a Russian cruise missile attack we have to either rely on Norway/NATO to intercept the launch platforms, keep RAF Typhoons airborne as a CAP, or station some DDGs or FFGs (preferable a Type 45) and hope to get lucky in predicting the missile path. Those of you who know about the availability of Royal Navy warships will appreciate the problems there.
I'd be very interested in hearing your thoughts, tips for adding/improving this scenario and if you found it interesting.
Please bear in mind that this is the first time I've tried to create a scenario. And it's very simple and designed only to play as the UK. One Blackjack comes in from the north and fires 12 x AS-23A Kodiak (Kh-101) missiles at Lossiemouth. There's a few units you can play with to defend against the missiles. The main benefit of it might be as a starter template for anyone who wants to create a modern UK air defence scenario.
I started off researching where all the EW radars are, which I've very precisely mapped. Most of them ('RRH' sites) are AN/TPS-77 radars. I also added in the major, relevant RAF bases (those that host fighters, MPA and did host the old Sentry AEWs) plus some US airbases.
Problems: there's no Indra Lanza Long Tactical Range 25 (LTR25) in the database. So if you want to model a scenario where an RRH has gone down, and a stopgap has been deployed (the Lanza being the RAF's chosen solution) then you can't.
I've added some RAF E-3D AEW aircraft - just to see how they perform. They don't pick up the Kh-101 missiles at all - is this accurate I wonder? Of course, these have been sold off to Chile now and we await Wedgetail to arrive in 2024. I don't feel bad for including it in a 2023 scenario because NATO are providing other E-3Ds as a stop gap.
Giraffe radar: no detection of the missiles at all, maybe it can't detect low flying missiles? This would seem wrong. The LOS tool shows that the missiles are within LOS from the Giraffe's location. Giraffe isn't coded right perhaps? I don't know.
Land Ceptor - added next to Lossiemouth. Only mk1 eyeball sensor so needs the Giraffe to work. The Land Ceptor and Giraffe radars are both listed as having the Aster Missile Datalink so I'd have thought they might work together. Land Ceptor does get targetting data from the Patriot radar AN/MPQ-65 but fires very late.
After the Land Ceptor failure I tbought maybe the Navy could save the day - so I added 1 x Type 45 DDG and 1 x Type 23 frigate - they work as advertised. If you want to see how the land based SAMs do then set these to HOLD fire.
After the Giraffe failed to work, I added a US Patriot PAC-3 and AN/MPQ-65 just to see if any SAM detects the missiles - yes, it does very late though it is reasonably effective in intercepting them. Not sure how realistic the late detection is.
Did I get my answer? Yes, we Brits have no reliable land-based SAMs available to protect the assets AFAIK, so it seems that to defend against a Russian cruise missile attack we have to either rely on Norway/NATO to intercept the launch platforms, keep RAF Typhoons airborne as a CAP, or station some DDGs or FFGs (preferable a Type 45) and hope to get lucky in predicting the missile path. Those of you who know about the availability of Royal Navy warships will appreciate the problems there.
I'd be very interested in hearing your thoughts, tips for adding/improving this scenario and if you found it interesting.