Sanyr1310 wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:17 pm
The air brigade equipped with Su-30MK2 was the closest one to the islands. The government is trying to contain the situation and avoid escalating it out of control, and therefore isn't deploying further units to the vicinity yet. I also was not sure if that air base was capable of housing more than one fighter brigade.
Considering less than half of the JASDF fighters are modernized, the rest dating from the year 2000, and the Flankers are operating under SAM cover, it is more evenly matched, IMO.
The more modern units were also being held back in case the US decided to intervene, or if Taiwan tried to declare independence.
So Beijing is foolish enough to risk its own annihilation rather than use any of its many ETC J-16 brigades (such as Hangzhou's 83rd Air Brigade, identified by various OSINT sources including scramble). Is this what you envision a "formidable adversary" to look like? I can't help but wonder: who is deliberately trying to limit the scale of scenario to their advantage for fear of "escalation"? If a regime fears escalation, isn't it trying to create a fait accompli by using the advantages it already has more quickly and forcefully?
Beijing is assuring its survival by keeping larger forces in place to respond to any US provocations. Their real enemy is the US and Taiwan, not Japan. IRL Beijing functionally controls much of the resources around the Senkakus by violating agreements on oil drilling and frequent Coast Guard patrols around the islands. They already control what makes the islands valuable, and realistically there isn't much point in fighting over them. But the MSS officer in the scenario forces Xi's hand, trying to start a war similar to the Sino-Vietnamese War in which Beijing shows its muscle and demonstrates that China is not to be messed with. But Xi doesn't really want to commit, because his true goal is the ejection of the US from Asia and seizure of Taiwan. Realistically China is not yet strong enough to take on the US or even Taiwan, (hence the often reported date of 2027 as the earliest for a deliberate conflict over the island) and thus sincerely does not wish to let the situation escalate out of hand. If China deploys J-20s and larger numbers of warships to the ECS around the Senkakus, then Japan does, and then more aircraft fall and more ships sink. It also weakens the hard sought gains intended for taking Taiwan, built up during the preceding decades of military modernization.
Thus Xi decided to bet on a limited force being able to take control of the air and sea around the islands. He also was making decisions under the assumption that Japanese will to fight would be weak, and that so long as China controlled the islands long enough, the Japanese public would demand an end to the fighting in days after seeing ships sunk and aircraft shot down on TV. The punitive strikes on Okinawa were also made for this purpose.
This is why in the briefing the Joint Staff tells you time is of the essence, and they decide to airlift a standard infantry company in from Okinawa instead of waiting for the specialized amphibious or airborne brigades. The faster Japan ends the war the better, which is also why the forces involved are limited to two ships and the squadrons at Okinawa, because waiting for the 6th and 8th fighter squadrons on Kyushu to move to Naha to be in place for combat operations would take too long. It would also take too long to raise a squadron incorporating an Aegis vessel or helicopter carrier, let alone get the amphibious vessels to Kyushu- which are based in Kure- and then load up the amphibious brigade.
I didn't use any other brigades like the 83rd because I felt they were too far away for combat over the Senkakus. Also, if I bring in the 83rd, in then gets called into question why I didn't bring the 84th at Jiaxing, and then the 78th at Shanghai/Chongming, and then the 7th at Rugao, and it never ends until the entire ETC air forces are in the scenario. But there are "in-scenario" political reasons why this doesn't happen, and practical reasons why I didn't want to do this that I describe at the bottom.
Sanyr1310 wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:17 pm
These are mobile systems and the PLA had no way of locating their location for a timely ballistic missile strike. It was also expected that the TELs would just drive away once a ballistic missile launch was detected, so instead of wasting them targeting what amount to dirt patches on the outer islands, it was decided to try and strike Okinawa.
I just did a quick Wikipedia search and found that the largest island in the Yaeyama Islands is only 200 square kilometers in size, the longest island span is only about 30 kilometers, and the areas that allow TELs to maneuver are all along the coast, where do you think these TEL can hide without being detected (there are no underground bunkers)?
I notice you have deliberately arranged for an Air regiment-sized UAV force, why can't they be used to search for TELs on the archipelago? What's more, wouldn't China's vast array of low-orbit reconnaissance satellites be enough to spot and track a target on a small island hundreds of kilometers from its own coast in time to deliver firepower? If this sounds like a detectable detectable detectable to you, I just set it to "auto-detectable" if a target that in reality cannot be avoided being discovered and destroyed. Instead of telling my opponents to destroy these "auto-detectable" targets, I choose to have them hit at a time that mimicked the search-recognisation-strike process. At this point, the player needs to find ways to preserve them by other means.
Using the UAVs over the islands is out of the question because they are protected by Type 03 medium range SAMs. You raise a good point about the satellites, but as I said before, Japan would have advanced warning of the launches from the US SBIRS network, and would be able to move the TELs.
Considering Okinawa and the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan present greater threats, it would make more sense from their POV to save the missiles instead of using them in a tactical manner.
Sanyr1310 wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:17 pm
In my opinion, a good scenario is never based on deliberately weakening the opponent's ability at some key nodes.
Unfortunately, theaters of war are often too big to model completely in CMO. Take for instance the Central Front in the Cold War. There is a scenario called "The Fighter-Bomber Regiment". It only consists of a regiment of MiG-27s and some NATO SAMs and an air base to target, IIRC.
Realistically, there would be fighters all over the frontline, with ample opportunities to target the MiGs in question. But it isn't feasible to put those in, so the scenario is limited. Yes, it isn't a totally realistic picture of combat over Germany without inclusion of the entire 16th Air Army and NATO forces in West Germany, but if you add those, you then have to add their follow on forces in Poland and England, respectively, and then you have a 10,000+ unit scenario on your hand and its just unplayable.
As I said in the first post, I was originally planning a massive scenario involving a US carrier group, more JMSDF vessels, the Liaoning, more Chinese vessels, and 4+ more squadrons of aircraft on either side. But then I saw a post in the general section about a guy wondering about the presence of Leopard 2s in the DB, and he mentioned how he had this massive Central Front scenario he was trying to make. Someone said that trying to make an all encompassing scenario is one of the mistakes of early CMO players, and I also recalled a discussion in which it was said the ideal scenario doesn't have more than 120 aircraft for the player to control. So I abandoned the bigger scenario (although I had already finished unit placement and still have it saved) and made this smaller one.
A "skirmish" scenario just involving the forces on Okinawa and maybe one nearby PLAAF regiment/brigade is also something I have wanted to do for a long time but never got around to.
Your responses have piqued my interest though, and I will return to the bigger scenario and see if I can make it work. I'll also try to make the Chinese more aggressive this time around.