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Page 164 of the hard copy 2016 Manual Part 3 Strategy Guide Para 1.4 The importance of Malta and Gibraltar. Currently
what are the specific effects for the Axis or the Allies holding one or both of these?

There are two Supply scripts triggered by Malta reducing the strength of Axis held resources in the Med.

I've pasted them below, but in essence:

1) A 15% chance per turn of Tripoli, Sirte, El Agheila, Benghazi and Derna receiving 1-2 points of damage.

2) A 20% chance per turn of Tobruk, Bardia, Sidi Barrani, Mersa Matruh, El Alamein and Alexandria receiving 1-2 points of damage.

; Malta limits Axis supply in the Mediterranean
{
#NAME= Malta Effect (Tripoli, Sirte, El Agheila, Benghazi, Derna)
#POPUP= <<TAG_39>>
#IMAGE=
#SOUND=
#FLAG= 1
#TYPE= 2
#AI= 0
#LEVEL= 0
; Set global variable condition to always trigger (dummy value)
#GV= 1[1,100]
; Set link value to always trigger (dummy value)
#LINK= 0[0]
#COUNTRY_ID= 112
#ALIGNMENT_ID= 0
#FLAG_ID= 112
#TRIGGER= 15
#SEASON_FLAG= 0
#DATE= 1941/01/01
#SOURCE_POSITION= 175,114 [-1]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 172,121 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 172,120 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 179,124 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 184,126 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 186,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 185,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 191,120 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 188,124 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 190,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 192,122 [1,2]
;Set variable conditions:
; 1st Line - UK politically aligned with the Allies and not surrendered
#VARIABLE_CONDITION= 112 [2] [100] [0]
; 2nd Line - Egypt politically aligned with the Allies and not surrendered
#VARIABLE_CONDITION= 36 [2] [100] [0]
}

; Malta limits Axis supply in the Mediterranean
{
#NAME= Malta Effect (Tobruk, Bardia, Sidi Barrani, Mersa Matruh, El Alamein, Alexandria)
#POPUP= <<TAG_40>>
#IMAGE=
#SOUND=
#FLAG= 1
#TYPE= 2
#AI= 0
#LEVEL= 0
; Set global variable condition to always trigger (dummy value)
#GV= 1[1,100]
; Set link value to always trigger (dummy value)
#LINK= 0[0]
#COUNTRY_ID= 112
#ALIGNMENT_ID= 0
#FLAG_ID= 112
#TRIGGER= 20
#SEASON_FLAG= 0
#DATE= 1940/08/01
#SOURCE_POSITION= 175,114 [-1]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 195,121 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 194,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 205,123 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 206,124 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 209,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 209,123 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 196,123 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 198,123 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 200,124 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 204,125 [1,2]
;Set variable conditions:
; 1st Line - UK politically aligned with the Allies and not surrendered
#VARIABLE_CONDITION= 112 [2] [100] [0]
; 2nd Line - Egypt politically aligned with the Allies and not surrendered
#VARIABLE_CONDITION= 36 [2] [100] [0]
}

With Gibraltar, there is a 25% chance per turn of the following Allied held resources suffering 1-2 points of damage (I don't have a list of resource names handy, but they can be observed on the map):

#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 144,115 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 145,115 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 152,112 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 152,113 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 167,111 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 167,112 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 172,120 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 172,121 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 185,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 186,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 175,114 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 175,115 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 176,115 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 194,122 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 195,121 [1,2]
#DESTINATION_RESOURCE= 205,123 [1,2]