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I've been racking my brains over this for some time and have yet to figure out the right balance an Axis player should have in terms of a North African campaign and the invasion of the Soviet Union.

Against AI, the Axis can have both a robust Barbarossa and a winning strategy in the ME. To wit - take Malta in late 1940, reinforce the NA campaign with a few units (some mixture of inf corps, army, mechanized or tank unit, an additional bomber). Presto - Egypt will fall and Barbarossa will still have the requisite strength to likely succeed.

Against a good human player, this simply doesn't work. The British, once they have put sufficient resources in Britain to deter/stop an Axis invasion, can push all in on North Africa.

Any thoughts on what a successful Axis strategy can be in the Middle East that doesn't fatally weaken the invasion of the Soviet Union?

I like to jump the gun on Africa and take Malta.

As soon as the fall of France is inevitable, I'll replace Kuchler with Kesselring, operate him, a Tank, an Army, a Corps down to ports, repair/upgrade them, and transport them to Africa and operate a fighter along with them. (Cruise a DD or sub to hug the coast to Tobruk and then to/towards Benghazi. If that's blocked, you'll be able to go straight down to Benghazi, which takes a turn longer to advance.) You will likely have severely damaged the Brits well before Rommel arrives.

Meanwhile, you are pounding Malta, with Manstein replacing Bock, with all your bombers and a fighter.

Invade Yugo no later than September. To heck with Hungary. When Malta falls, Transport Manstein to Albania and fly your air over. If you can get it in place in time, it can assist with Belgrade. If not, you can take Yugo in 3 turns using a pair of tanks, and enough infantry to kill enough to induce surrender. Accept Italy's belligerence. I like to have put an extra Italian corps in Albania to make sure I can both block the Greeks and seize the two most southern Yugo towns. It's nice to have your air to help put down Greece, but you can do it quickly with a pair of tanks and infantry support, and an army or two (for Salonica).

Your early start in Yugo will allow you to wrap up in Greece by Feb '41 (or March at the latest). Then it's just a matter of getting the stuff up north in time for Barbarossa (preferabey May 31). You can delay deploying units to avoid Soviet activation, but make sure they are in place and upgradd the turn before you invade.

Meanwhile, when the Africa Corps arrives, I do some swapping and transport all but the infantry corps and the anti-tank in 2 turns to Sicily, hugging the African coast and then cutting east to Palermo. Operate planes to the eastern front to be. Operate, deploy, reinforce, and like that. I send them to Romania, esp. the scout car. My delayed reinforcements will zap in as late as possible and cover North and Center. Which minimizes operating costs.

You'll have built 5 tanks, 2 Tac Air, Maritime air and upgraded what you have, minors if possible, and you'll need 7 HQs.