Matrix Games Forums

Background.

(1) Just having completed my GW Counterfactual Take 3 GW scenario and AAR in August 2024 I was both relieved and sadden.
(2) This endeavor went from March 11, 2023 to August 12, 2024 and consisted of 161 pages of AAR posts.
(3) After finishing I felt as if I had lost a friend, dare say I was "grieving".
(4) It's silly I know, but no other wargame I tried could fill the void left by the "loss of MWIF".
(5) I even gave thought and some effort to vassal and WiF CE (FYI, I own CE Deluxe).
(6) Even with rules and map updates, the thought of me having to physically enforce the rules, make supply calculations and keep up with the counters seemed "primitive" and a bit overwhelming.
(7) Having cut my teeth on MWIF, the different hex scale on the Pacific and Asia maps in CE seemed liked an unknown foreign language.
(8) And then add to that the off map hexes and the US mini map, which felt like a long lost dead language.
(9) The counters, map and for the most part the interface of MWIF kept calling me back.
(10) For example, warship type (e.g., BB vs CA vs CL) is right on the counter in MWIF but in CE one must look at the 1st & 2nd cycle costs to distinguish between them.
(11) A minor gripe, I know, but a gripe never the less on my part (again) having cut my teeth on MWIF where such wasn't a problem.
(12) While the CE WiF vassal module is functional, MWIF is a work of art with the irritating exception of convoy routing and production.
(13) I couldn't stay away but I could stay dark (i.e., no solo AAR), which is what I've done until now.
(14) Below are short summaries of four previous solo attempts I started and which I've "raged quit" in the early game for failed axis strategy.
(15) In my "competitive" solo play I have and will continue to be a stickler for no die roll take backs even if such rolls result in a bad outcome that effectively ruins the game.
(16) Which such happens as you'll see below, my solo policy is to continue or end the game and start another, which as you know is a time consuming to setup and begin again.
(17) Thus, this is my self imposed penalty for taking a risk, even in solo, of which the worse outcome makes the game not worth continuing.
(18) Given that my last full game took 17-months to complete, risking blowing up the game in the first week or two is something I've hopefully learned my lesson on with the four solo rage quits summarized below.

Solo Rage Quits.
(1) Japanese Asia First Gambit. In this gambit, the Soviets setup the majority of their Asian forces for a strike into the Middle East (Persia then Iraq and even possibly Saudi Arabia). Setting up after the Soviets, Japan decided to maximize setting up their land forces in Manchuria and Korea and naval forces in the Sea of Japan to go full force against the USSR in Asia and capture the 4 Soviet Asian RPs on or near the border with such. Unfortunately for Japan, which can't DOW until the 3rd impulse of SO39, the weather in the north temperate and arctic turned to and stayed storm until the end of the turn. And, didn't improve on the ND39 second turn. Given the weak Japanese commitment to China due to their strong commitment to Manchuria and Korea, the Nationalist and CCP through maneuver (no combat) was taking back lost territory including blocking a couple of RPs and costing Japan production. Thus my first solo "rage" quit and a valuable lesson learned, don't risk Japan's opening position in China, and guaranteed first impulse fine weather, on a 60/40 opening gambit that could wreck the game for Japan if it doesn't pan out.

(2) Cruisers in Flames. Not sure this is really a rage quit as much as a matter of personal preference. I love the naval warfare part of MWIF and wanted to include more naval units. However; for me personally, the CLIF kit doesn't add to my MWIF naval wargaming experience. It just adds more counters to manage without improving the realism of the submarine war. Don't get me wrong, I feel that the macro effect of submarine warfare in MWIF can be quite accurate if both sides are willing to commit the equivalent "historical" resources and actions to such; however, the micro effect (i.e., realism) isn't and can't be without the explicit inclusion of destroyers, escort carriers and other smaller warships, which is well beyond the scope and scale of WIF. While the tactic of "escorting" convoys with BBs, CAs or in the case of the CLIF kit, with CLs, is not realistic the results of the naval warfare models in MWIF are. In reality, BBs, CAs and CLs were the prey of submarines, not their hunters. Again, when played with "historical" focus and effort, the outcomes are believable, just not exactly how we get those outcomes. So, CLIFs just added to the "burden" of my play without adding accordingly to my enjoyment; therefore solo "rage" quit #2.

(3) Fall Rot 1939 Gambit. In this gambit Germany setup strong forces in the West to go after Belgium and France as quickly as possible. When the weather cleared on the 3rd impulse pair of SO39 (axis #7), Germany decided to avoid the Rotterdam redoubt and go after Belgium. The Belgium setup prevent a direct attack on Brussels on the invasion impulse. The French moved into Belgium on the the following allied impulse to include a 3 unit stack in Brussels. With one more axis impulse before the turn ended Germany was able to to gain an additional (3 total) adjacent to Brussels. With Germany losing the initiative, even with a reroll, the allies were able to strengthen their positions in Belgium. Feeling a bit desperate about their situation, Germany played an O-chit with Rundstedt but only managed +7A assault, which failed. With the turn quickly playing out because of weather and on tilt, Germany tried again (axis impulse #7) with a desperate +5.277A assault which not only failed but got the dreaded "14" assault roll. Thus, solo "rage" quit #3, this one legit as Germany was in a horrible position. (4) Unintended Fall Rot 1939 Gambit. Germany setup full force vs Poland with modest but credible defense forces in the West. The SO39 turn was the turn that went on for ever, with fine weather for the most part. In addition to knocking Poland out on the first turn, Germany manage to take Denmark and Holland; especially after the CW committed all their transports especially when they though the turn was surely over. Without a threat of a Rotterdam redoubt, Germany risk a +8A (90% PWIN) to take Holland on turn 1. Bolster by their unexpected success going west so early, Germany decided to risk another 90% PWIN to effectively take out Belgium on turn 2, for the cost of an O-chit. Well worth it to get such a head start. The only problem was that Germany hit the 10% loss, failed to take Antwerp, which allowed the Brits to put 2 strong units in that city and the French to move 3 units into Brussels. While 90% seems almost like a sure thing it isn't. Especially if you look at the land combat risks German took both in Poland and in the West. 94%, 90%, 88.9% PWIN land combats. While individually, good odds, cumulative that's 75.2% which is way too much risk (in my opinion) for Germany on in early game. Hence, solo "rage" quit #4.

GW Counterfactual #5 (GW-CF-5)

Objectives.
(1) Fun, Entertaining, Immersive Counterfactual Gaming Experience.
This is the primary reason I play wargames and this is the reason that after discovering MWIF 10-years ago that no other wargame scratches that itch more than MWIF does this past decade. That doesn't mean that other wargames won't or can't scratch that itch (shout out to Commander Europe at War, version 2); but I keep getting drawn back to MWIF.

(2) Refine EXCEL-Based (M)WIF Support Tool Set.
I'm using this play to continue to refine my EXCEL-Based (M)WIF Support tool set, which includes AAR logging (currently on ver 12), 2D10 Calculator (currently on ver 10), Attack Planning (includes land combat, ground support & ground strike and currently on ver 10), BOA threat and risk assessment (currently version 3) and others. One the latest refinements I'm making to my AAR logging is to limit both (variable) headers and log entries to a single line. I'm also refining the variable headers to reduce redundant data and to increase the capture of more significant data for use in table and plot summaries.

Support Tool Set Examples. (3) Continued MAGIC developed.
MAGIC development continues focused currently on playing aids that output to csv files, which can then be imported into EXCEL.

AAR Combat Logs (raw).
I'm getting a bit ahead of myself wrt/AAR, but I want to provide an example how I've mated EXCEL with MAGIC to produce (hopefully) readable reports for AAR single line log entries with variable headers. The variable header is displayed in EXCEL when one makes the entry. However; as one progresses down the spreadsheet (in columns and entries) the variable header changes so as one is likely confused with elements of earlier entries as illustrated in the last post and below. MAGIC Slide.
I've added the capability to magic to take the first two columns of the combat logs, which are variable header index and global combat log index, and produce an output that I can then feed into the report generator sheet (LRG) of the EXCEL AAR tool. AAR Output Report.
This produces (hopefully) a more readable log of the action. For this upcoming AAR I will filter by theater to produces reports in this format as a function of theater\ and for certain house cleaning functions as use oil, BP reports, Nazi-Soviet Pact and others.

MWIF Version(s).

7.0.1.1 (Beta Tester Version)
Being a beta tester I will primarily use the latest tester version, which is currently version 7.0.1.1. 3.2.0 (Go to for secondary supply, regression bug workarounds and late game slowdown).
Note above that I quantified using version 7.0.1.1, meaning that I plan on using version 3.2.0, as I did in my last AAR, for supply and regression bug workarounds and late game slowdown when/if encountered. House Rules.
(1) NONE, absolutely none!
(2) I want to see how this CF attempt plays out using coded and three uncoded optional rules.
(3) Though, I do plan on following a few guidelines, covered in the next section, which I may add to or subtract from as I go.

Guidelines.
I'm making a distinction between guidelines and house rules, which some of you may consider a house rule. However; the following guidelines are within the MWIF as codes and which I generally follow in competitive play whether or not they've been agreed upon. Well, possibly with the exception of (1) with some leeway in friendly completive play.

(1) No corrections post phase end, except for announced moves prior to die (dice) roll and MWIF "features".
My approach is that in the official game file (GW-CF-5.gam) that when a phase is ended, no do overs are allowed except for the two exception types above. If I happen to overlook something then too bad, I'll have to live with that. Now that does NOT include "announced" moves or actions that were fumbled, for example, announcing all CPs for a given MP are to remain at sea but some were took off sentry by MWIF. This specific situation will be corrected post end phase. A situation that won't be corrected, or backed out, if an oversight in potential defensive air support that changes planned odds. Once the land combat declaration phase is ended if there are factors, such as potential defensive air support, that I overlooked too bad. To counter that, I do allow and will be using an unofficial copy of the game file, which I typically call wg.gam (wargaming version), in which I'm allowed to click through and try whatever I wish as a planning support version. Anything and everything past the saveas from the "official" game file version does not, and will not count except to help with planning.

(2) Name warships sunk are scrapped.
Personal preference and one I always follow.

(3) Night air missions limited to airborne, transport, supply and fighter escort, intercept, CAP of such mission.
Personal preference and one that some might consider a house rule, though not against the rules.

(4) Maximize production (BP output).
A counterfactual preference I would say. Also one I may not follow if maintaining or reestablishing supply line (playing with LOS optional) is necessary.

Optional Rules.
(1) My list includes 3 uncoded optional rules (GBA, Naval Offensive Chits, USSR-Japan compulsory peace), which I'll cover in the next section.
(2) Some key optional rules I decided NOT to play with this time are V weapons, Atomic bombs, Cruiser in Flames, Chinese Attack Weakness and Breaking the Nazi-Soviet pact. V weapons and Atomic bombs I did play with in my last AAR and really found them inconsequential and not really worth the effort. I've already stated in detail my issue with Cruiser in Flames. First time in a while I've played without Chinese Attack Weakness but in my last AAR where I did, you could count the number of land combats initiated by the Nationalist on one hand. I wanted to increase that. Not sure how, or if not Breaking the Nazi-Soviet pact affects the game but we'll see.
(3) Note that I'm also playing with Isolated Reorg Limits, and as in last AAR, I'll be verifying and, if necessary, implementing it manually. Uncoded Optional Rules.

(1) Guards Banner Armies.

22.4.14 Guards Banner Armies (LiF option 70)
The 8 Russian armies included in Leaders in Flames are Guards
Banner Armies. These are kept as reserves, but do not arrive when
other reserves do.
Instead, whenever Soviet land units are in land combat against anyGerman controlled land unit(s), the Soviets may be able to "promote"
one of their units to a Guards Banner unit of the same type as that
involved in the battle (e.g. ARM for ARM or MOT for MOT etc.).
To find out whether you are eligible to promote a unit, add up the
following after each land combat.
For each German controlled corps/army sized unit:
* Killed, +3;
* Shattered, +2; or
* Retreated +1.
Double these values for HQs and halve them for division sized units.
Subtract any losses you suffered using the same method. If the result
is still positive (i.e. you won this battle), you may immediately
promote 1 surviving unit.
Add this result to the combat factors of the unit you wish to promote.
You may replace the unit with a Guards Banner unit, of the same type,
if the total is equal to or more than the combat factors of the Guards
Banner unit. The replacing Guards Banner unit maintains the same
facing as the unit it replaces.
The replaced unit is returned to the force pool and may be scrapped as
if destroyed.
Example: 2 Soviet armies (a 5-6 MECH and a 6-3 INF) are defending
the Dnepr bend (hex E1429). A Rumanian attack against it fails
dismally rolling a 5 on a 2-1 assault (2/1). The Rumanians lose 2
armies, while the Soviets lose one.
Thus, for the purposes of promotion, the Soviets get +3 (6-3). They
decide to lose the MECH corps, because adding 3 to the 5-6 MECH
army only totals 8, well short of the 11 required to gain the only
MECH Guards Banner Army.
3 is added to the 6 factor INF army to total 9. Unfortunately, the 9-4
Guards Banner Army is already on the map, so the Soviet player
places the 6-3 back in the force pool and places the 8-4 7th Guards
Banner Army on the map in hex E1429.
Note that even if the Germans had contributed a division to the attack
and taken this as a loss, the total would only have been 2 points (4.5-
3), that this would have still been enough points to replace the 6-3
with the 8-4.
When destroyed, Guards Banner Armies are placed back in the
Reserve pool and are again available for other promotions.
Unlike normal reserves, when the Soviet Union comes to peace with
Germany, on-map Guards Banner Armies are not moved back to the
Reserve pool.

(2) Naval Offensive Chits

16.2 Naval action
If you play an offensive chit at the start of a naval action, specify one
of your face up HQs that is in a port hex. Any naval or aircraft units
stacked in that hex that initiates a naval combat (see 11.5.2) may
demand a re-roll of the search dice (see 11.5.5) by both sides, in any
round of combat this impulse.
Re-rolling of naval search dice may be demanded any number of times
this impulse provided that the total number demanded does not exceed
the HQ's reorganisation value.
Example: Nimitz is in Pearl Harbor stacked with 3 SCS and a P-38G FTR. Jay plays a naval offensive chit on Nimitz at the start of his
naval action. The Lighting flies into the 4 box of the Hawaiian Islands
and the 3 SCSs into the 4 box of the Marshalls sea area, both of which
contain Japanese and US units. During the naval combat step the US
picks the Marshall Sea area and they both roll search die. The
Japanese roll a 2 to a US roll of 10.
Jay demands a re-roll. This time he rolls a 5 while Kasigi rolls a 3.
This commits the entire Japanese navy but only the US carrier fleet in
the 4 box is included. Jay could take a risk and use up Nimitz's third
and last re-roll on another roll, but decides to save this for later
rounds (or even to help the Lightning in the Hawaiian Islands) on the
(wise) assumption that the search re-roll might end up worse rather
than better.
16.3 Land

(3) USSR-Japan compulsory peace

Option 50: (USSR-Japan compulsory peace) If Japan controls
Vladivostok during the first war between Japan and the USSR, the
Japanese player must agree to a peace if the Soviet player wants one.
Similarly, if the USSR controls 3 or more resources that were
Japanese controlled at the start of Sep/Oct 1939, the Soviet player
must agree to a peace if the Japanese player wants one.
In either case, the new Russo-Japanese border is established by the
hexes each controls. Any pocket of non-coastal hexes wholly
surrounded by hexes controlled by the other major power becomes
controlled by the major power whose hexes surround them.
Example: Hexes A and B are still Japanese controlled even though they are
wholly surrounded by Soviet controlled hexes. If the USSR and Japan
reach a peace, hexes A and B will become Soviet controlled.
Japan and the USSR cannot compel a peace in their second or any
subsequent war.
If a peace is reached, remove all forces now in each other’s territory. Put
them in the nearest hex in whcih they can stack controlled by their major
power or its aligned minors.
If a minor makes peace and is now not at war with anyone, remove all its
land and aircraft units from the game until it is next at war, upon which
all its land and aircraft units are again set up as normal (see 19.4). All of
the minor’s naval units remain under the control of their controlling
major power (British in the case of the Commonwealth).
If you are now a neutral major power, remove any MIL units you have
on the map or on the production circle that have ‘Res’ on their back and
place them in the reserve pool. Remove all your remaining MIL units
from the game until you are next at war (see 4.1.2).

September 1, 1939.

Alright, let's get started.

Lend Lease. Air Units.
(1) I have to admit that I'm not a big air unit, lend lease person.
(2) And the fact that you have to manually edit the game file to return aircraft doesn't make it easier.
(3) However; I'm going to try to make it a point this game to embrace and (hopefully) better use lend lease aircraft. Scrapped. Victory Totals. Bids.
(4) Wow, if we were to end the game now, Italy would be the big winner followed in second by Germany.
(5) Is this why Hitler invaded Poland? Because they're in second to Italy?

September 1, 1939.

USA. Convoys.
(1) I generally try to get US Entry (USE) option 9, "Resources to China" passed as quickly as possible in order to send the Philippine RP to China.
(2) When passed and implemented, this required a convoy in the South China Sea to transport the Philippine RP.
(3) I generally like to do this with a USA CP, which meant that at the end of turn 1 I needed to RTB a US CP generally setup in Polynesia and RTB to Legaspi in the Philippines.
(4) To oil this CP, required a CP chain back to the US and US Oil which meant 2 US CPs returned to Hawaii during turn 1, reorg by Nimitz who was transported from San Diego to Hawaii.
(5) Then later in turn 1, the 2 CPs reorg in Hawaii were sent to the Marianas and Bismarck Sea to establish the necessary CP chain to oil the CP RTB to Legaspi at the end of turn 1.
(6) However; during setup this time it struck me, I could take 3 CPs of the 15 CPs to be setup from Hawaii and put 2 CPs in the Bismarck Sea and 1 CP in the Marianas.
(7) Then use 3 CPs to be setup from the USA to replace those 3 CPs taken from Hawaii's 15 CPs to establish my 5 CP trade chain to Japan in the Central Pacific, Hawaiian Islands and Mendocino.
(8) Not that the 3 replacement CPs from the USA could be used to replace CPs taken from Hawaiian Islands and/or Mendocino set.
(9) I'm not sure if I broke the rules as written but certainly this was allowed under MWIF's rules as coded whether intentional or not.
(10) Now all the US has to do is RTB 1 CP in Bismarck, this time to Manilla, and oil it at the end of turn 1.

September 1, 1939.

Soviet (Non-European) Setup (Middle East & Asia).
(1) No non-aggression pact between the USSR and Japan this game.
(2) The Soviets setup for an early game invasion and conquest of Persia and then Iraq.
(3) The only constraining factors are: (a) weather, (b) shared 5 land moves with the CCP and (c) minimizing the impact of US entry.
(4) This last, (3)(c) is significant as I'm planning on an allied approach that minimizes USE impacts.
(5) I want to try to get critical USE options passed as quickly as possible and the US into the war as soon as possible.
(6) So the Soviet invasion of Persia is set for 1940 where USE chits are lower expected values and Germany will be involved in the West against France and Britain.
(7) The Soviet focus on the Middle East during setup comes at the cost of a weak setup in Soviet Asia.
(8) As I covered earlier in the background section, I tried to exploit this as Japan in an earlier gaming attempt; but was thwarted by weather and this became my 1st of four rage quits.
(9) No wanting to make that mistake this time, Japan decided to exploit the weak Soviet Asian setup by going full force against China in early game.
(10) There'll be time when German invades the USSR in 1941 for Japan to also collect those 4 precious Soviet Asian RPs just sitting on the frontier with Manchuria and Korea.

September 1, 1939.

Asian Theater. China & Japan.
(1) Japan intends to go strong after China in early game.
(2) Specifically, Changsha, the RP southwest and the RP 2-hexes southwest of Kweilin.
(3) Also, Japan is looking up opening rail and shipment of these 2 RPs to Japanese factories.
(4) It does no good to capture a Chinese RP is you can't ship it. Well, no good except denying it to China.
(5) The Nationalist setup up a strong 3-stack in Changsha (covered up by the stack but 2 hexes north, northeast of Hengyang in the south).
(6) A lesson learned from my last of 4 rage quits (but not a reason I raged quit) was the importance of setting up a Nationalist unit in the Mtns directly east of Changsha (which I did this time).
(7) Even with a Nationalist 3-stack setup in Changsha, that previous game the IJA guaranteed by a fine weather impulse #1 was able to setup and then on impulse #1 move to get a minimum +8.056 assault vs Changsha.
(8) This minimum gave Japan a 45.6% PWIN (almost 50/50) and given an expected +2.2 from ground strikes increases PWIN to 66% (2 in 3 chance).
(9) As it turned out in that previous game, the ground strikes all missed but the +8.056A land combat succeeded.
(10) However, the setup of the Nationalist Kunming MIL directly east of Changsha will prevent that outcome this game, well at least on the first impulse of the game. Pacific. South China Sea.
(11) Note that Malaya, and more significantly Singapore is ungarrisoned by the CW.
(12) This is something on the CW immediate "to-do" list to correct. More on their (CW) immediate "to-do" list shortly.

September 1, 1939.

RN Asiatic Fleet.
(1) The RN Asiatic Fleet setup was split between Cape Town, RSA and Aden, Aden in East Africa.
Atlantic (Cape Town, RSA). Aden, East Africa. East Africa.
(2) The CW through Terr draw at setup was able to cover Khartoum, Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.
(3) Also, the CW drew a Kenya and Tanganyika Terr.
(4) Italian setup in East Africa threatens Djibouti, French Somaliland.
(5) Otherwise, Italian setup was defensive allowing the CW to send the KEN and TAN Terr to other theaters.
(6) 1 of 3 CW TRS was setup to ship the TAN Terr to garrison an empty Bombay India before the end of turn 1 (CRITICAL!!!).
(7) Note that the critical city of Bombay, India (below) was garrison on setup. It's also CRITICAL!!! to get Bombay garrisoned prior to the end of turn 1.
(8) To leave either or both ungarrisoned risks partisan(s) into these critical cities. Partisans which takes an involved campaign to dig out if allowed. So best not even to allow (i.e., risk partisan in ungarrison city).
(9) The CW also drew an AUS Terr and setup the Queens to get that Terr to Singapore on turn 1 (necessary but not critical).
(10) This setup allowed the CW only 2 transports for the Western Front (e.g., BEF and/or countering reckless German invasions of Denmark and/or Low Countries).
(11) Foreign Troop Commitment (FTC). The TAN Terr may be shipped to India (1 of 5 CW home countries) but NOT to Singapore or even Djibouti (once France and CW are in the war).
(12) However; the AUS Terr (since AUS is 1 of 5 CW home countries) may be shipped there and to anywhere CW troops are allowed without FTC.
(13) The CW plans to get the KEN Terr to India turn 2 or later to increase India's garrison vs partisans.
(14) It's probably one of my many flaws, but I hate partisans so I put a premium on guarding against them. That is, garrisoning such areas.
(15) I understand that partisan risk cannot be eliminated but I sure like to minimize it. However; I need to do that a lower priority vs other higher priority troop needs, like active theaters.

India. Australia.

September 1, 1939.

West Med & Italian Coast.
(1) The Italian fleet including their two transport groups are set up in Trieste.
(2) This naval setup vs setting up in La Spezia requires the RN and French navy to sortie in strength into the Italian Coast if they wish to attempt to port strike the Italian sea lift (i.e., transports).
(3) The RN does setup in 2 CVs, 2 CVLs and escorts in Malta with additional escorts (French) in Marseilles and (RN) in Gibraltar.
(4) Allied intention is to sortie feint a surprise port strike vs the Italian fleet in La Spezia in order to draw Italy into the war early.
(5) In keeping with the allied strategy of maximizing US entry, this is a bluff by the Western Allies (again, in order to draw Italy into the war).
(6) Will Italy take the bait? At the time of this setup I really didn't know and was trying to devise a calculation to use to decide or not.
(7) Italy's land setup is interesting (I believe).
(8) They've setup Balbo in Sardinia with the intention of reinforcing and then taking Corsica (when at war with France).
(9) Also, they have designs on French North Africa.
(10) This setup comes at the expense of a weak setup in Libya.
(11) Italy plans (hopes) to use their navy to blunt any CW excursion into Libya from Egypt.
(12) We'll see if that pans out; whenever Italy enters the war.
(13) The CW sets up III inf in Gibraltar and AT gun in Malta.
(14) The AT gun in Malta will be reinforced during the first allied impulse by the 2nd inf div setup in Liverpool.
(15) This inf div will be transported directly to Malta via RN CA. East Med.
(16) The French setup their TRS Gp in Syria to move French VIII inf likely to mainland France.
(17) The CW setup their Royal Eng Mot div on the Egyptian border with Libya to to quickly captured the undefended ports of Bardia, Tobruk and Benghazi.
(18) The CW is hoping to make Italy pay for their weak setup in eastern Libya.

September 1, 1939.

CW Convoys & Production.
(1) As I write this, I've just fully completed turn 1.
(2) I should have done this level of analysis at setup.
(3) Because I notice 3 unused CW CPs (1 each in Bay of Biscay, CSV and West Med).
(4) To be honest, I took my CW convoy setup from a previous start (one of my four rage quits) and copied it.
(5) Again, I should have look closer I guess.
(6) Note that this graphic was made from the game file just after Germany's DOW on Poland and their (Poland's) setup.
(7) Thus the spare CP in Danzig, Poland.
(8) Convoy routes and production are so pristine at this point just before hostilities start.
(9) How long will all that last? Will it last through turn 1? French Convoys & Production.
(10) French production hasn't been optimized.
(11) I'm pretty sure in this graphic the French oil from (TS) Iraq is going to producing instead of being saved.
(12) Assuming all this holds throughout turn 1, that oil could/will be saved in mainland France without dropping BP output.
(13) Will it hold?
(14) For me to know and you to find out.

September 1, 1939.

Europe.
Poland
(1) Well here's the main show.
(2) Japan might disagree what that assertion but I think most would agree that Europe is at least two-thirds of the show.
(3) A very strong German setup on the Polish border with the strength to conquer Poland on turn 1.
(4) In the vein of my counterfactual play Poland setups all their forces in Western Poland in order to last as long as they can, force Germany to use up most of their Luftwaffe, flip HQs in offensive land combat support and delay Germany's redeployment west for as long as possible.
(5) I plan on using the following tactic to get the most out of the Polish air force and then have the survivors of that air force (hopefully both the bomber and fighter wings) interned by the Soviets in Eastern Poland.
(6) I had to wargame the following tactic to ensure that it was even possible.
(7) First off, I verified through wargaming that the Polish air force cannot be interned by rebasing to a neutral country (e.g., Lithuania). I though this was rules as written but if so, and I could be wrong, it's definitely not as rules as coded.
(8) So the only way for the Polish airforce to be interned is for them to be in Eastern Poland with the Soviets move in (or control Eastern Poland).
(9) Given the setup and the rules as coded, if the Soviets move a land unit during their first impulse to control Eastern Poland, the Polish planes are blocked from rebasing there and thus being interned.
(10) So my plan tactic is to have the Soviets claim Eastern Poland on the first allied impulse but NOT moving a land unit in but by rebasing an air unit there.
(11) This will allow the Polish bomber wing escorted by the Polish fighter wing to ground strike a German stack within rebase range of Eastern Poland and rebase the survivors there.
(12) This assumes that Germany doesn't ground strike either during the surprise impulse, a very good assumption I believe based on the Polish estimate that Germany wishes to maximize the chance of flipping the Lodz two army stack and the Warsaw army & HQ-I stack.
(13) Given that Poland intelligence service as a copy of Germany's Enigma machine, I think this is more than a Polish estimate and is likely a fact.
(14) Germany only sets up 1 CP in the Baltic Sea, primarily for supply, it order to deter a surprise allied naval move into the Baltic.
(15) This will require at least 1 combine later in the turn for German to get the (min) 3 CPs out in the Baltic to ship the 3 Swedish RPs to Germany.
(16) Will the allies leave the Baltic alone?

Bessarabia. Baltic States.
(17) The Soviets have place significant land forces on their border with Bessarabia.
(18) However; that claim will have to wait for their airforce to return from the Middle East after the conquest of Persia and Iraq.
(19) The Soviets want to ensure that there's 0% chance that Germany will deny this demand when made.
(20) Stalin, if anything is a patient man when it comes to territorial gains and conquest.
(21) The occupation of the Baltic States will also wait.
(22) Soviet acquisition of Bessarabia and the Baltic States will wait until the Germany is tied up on the Western Front and when the impact on US entry is lower (i.e., Baltic Claim and the 40% chance of losing a US Ge/IT entry chit).

The Western Front.
(23) After German reserves are called out, Germany will have a 2-corps stacks on all 5 border hexes with France.
(24) Germany sets up their 88mm AA unit to in Dusseldorf to deter allied strategic bombing raids on the 2 factory hexes of Dusseldorf, Cologne and Essen.
(25) Even during the surprise allied impulse when AA fire is halved, this unit gets -1/6 vs a strategic bomber wing.
(26) On the Danish border, 3 German divs are setup in order to capture Copenhagen and lock out the Western Allies from the North Sea on any future, north temperate fine weather impulse.
(27) That is, provided none of the divs are ground struck and flipped.
(28) Note that Germany has deployed their Ju 52 to either reorg 1 such div or the 88 mm AA gun if necessary.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939.

Weather & Actions Summary.
(1) As you can see, Italy took the bait and declared war on both the CW & France on Axis #3.
(2) How all that played out will be covered in individual theater summaries.
(3) After the scripted beginning impulse pair, the weather over Europe and for the most part in the Med was rain.
(4) Each side got 4 impulses, 8 total, and was in the 68.5% upper percentile of turn lengths.
(5) To get this percentile, find the cumulative distribution function value (CDF[C]) for the last successful turn continues roll (1=cont; i.e., 01SO39AX11 EOT check), subtract that from 1 and convert to percentage.
(6) Being in the 68.5% upper percentile tells me that this turn was close to "average" length. Combat Logs Summary.
(7) The 3 total combat logs (CLs) difference between turn 1 (top table) and cumulative to date (bottom table) are the 3 US entry chit draws at the start of the game.
(8) The top table is a good guide to the intensity of combat by theater for the turn. BP Report Summary.
(9) The KIA column is the equivalent BPs of the units lost in action.
(10) To the left is that broken down by Army, Navy and Airforce, which totals to KIA.
(11) BP +/- are net BPs from non-combat and is equal to gain(o) - [# OCP x 15] - loss(o).
(12) The specifics for these values by major power will be covered throughout the following turn summary.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Asian Theater. USSR-Japanese Frontier.

(1) There is no peace treaty, uneasy peace or any agreement between Imperial Japan and the Soviet Union.
(2) However; Japan decided to rebase troops to China from the frontier after the Soviet Union skeleton deployment there.
(3) After Japan decided to rebase to China, the Soviet Union decided to rebase ship what skeleton land units that are there to Europe.
(4) With only 5 land moves and 1 rail move per turn, these Soviet redeployments will take time.

End of Turn.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Asian Theater. China.

Turn Summary.
(1) The Nationalist commitment one serious planning error and that was their land combat assault on Wuhan.
(2) Though late in the turn (impulse 9) and with almost all Japanese air used, the Nationalist thought they saw a 70% PWIN opportunity to liberate Wuhan, which was held by an OOS and flipped non-elite IJA garrison.
(3) Though still sporty at 70%, a successfully assault would have overran and destroyed two flipped Japanese bomber wings and pilots.
(4) What the Nationalist attack planners overlooked in sloppy fashion was the organized long range Japanese G3M2 (Nell) naval bomber group in Canton, which though halved by the weather, doubled the IJA defense from 1 to 2.
(5) This reduced the planned odds from 9A (70% PWIN) to 4A (30%).
(6) The Nationalist fought very poorly (2D10=3) and lost both attacking units, including the irreplaceable Shanghai MIL.
(7) With that roll, the Nationalist would still have lost the battle at +9A, but would have only lost 1 unit.
(8) The CCP was also not without error (i.e., sloppy play!).
(9) The elite 1st inf army manage to force march (i.e., flip) into an out of supply hex and thus, due to isolated reorg, was not organized.
(10) The IJA also made a less serious attack planning error for their attack on the Nationalist MIL east of Changsha.
(11) Actual vs planned was +14.5 vs +16.5, a planning error -2.
(12) However; the IJA overcame this error through a decent 2D10=13 roll.
(13) A CCP partisan that took over the coal mine at 73,143, did cost Japan 1 precious RP.
(14) Japan does have all 3 HQs in China and have brought in significant land reinforcements.

Attack Planning Workbook. Combat Logs. End of Turn.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. CBI, East Africa, Pacific.

(1) CW took a naval action for the first 3 allied impulses of the turn before they finally took a land.
(2) These three naval actions were necessitated by Italy's surprise entry on Axis #3, which will be covered later.
(3) Not wanting to risk the turn ending and the 10% chance that a partisan would appear in Calcutta, the CW RTB 4-4 TRS Gp w/TNG Terr to Calcutta during one of their naval action.
(4) While this RTB caused the Terr to flip and did not reduce the 10% chance of a partisan in India it did have the effect of garrisoning (protecting) Calcutta from partisans.
(5) No partisans appeared in India and after reorg of the TNG Terr the partisan in India now stands at 6%, a number which the CW hopes to reduce but likely to for at least a couple of turns due to other priorities.
(6) The AUS Terr designated for Singapore was diverted to Dijbouti, French Somaliland after that critical French port came under threat by the ETH Terr when Italy entered the war.
(7) The CW accepted the 2% risk of a partisan appearing in Singapore (none did).
(8) However; it's a priority to get Singapore garrisoned.
(9) The likely unit is the AUS Sydney MIL that was called up and reorg this turn.
(10) Getting to that MIL and getting it Singapore before next turn's partisan checks is now a bit tricky because the use of RTB vs debark for the 2 garrison actions above.
(11) The CW also plans to get the KEN MIL to India to lower partisan risk there.
(12) The US did manage to pass US Entry Option 9, "Resources to China" and is in position to implement sending the PHI RP to China.
(13) The US did "remember" to RTB (from Bismarck Sea) to Manila and organize (i.e., oil) it.
(14) However; US intelligence services estimate with high confidence that Imperial Japan will use political pressure to deny this trade by closing the Burma Road (Die = 5).
(15) There's a 50/50 chance that the US will react.
(16) However; the timing of that reaction is in question (i.e., next turn (1939) or wait until 1940 when USE chit draw averages are lower).
(17) I want to delve into this a bit further and see if I can come up with some calculation (or model) to use on whether or to wait.
(18) Let me do some ciphering first and will post such when the time comes to make the decision.
(19) Oh, one other thing I wanted to point out and forget until now and that's the Italian X inf corps that starts in East Africa.
(20) As far as I can tell if one is playing with isolated reorg, which I am, that corps is only good for at-start garrison; because once move it can never be reorg again when Italy is at war with the CW.
(21) Well, that is until such time that the axis capture the Suez Canal and setup a supply line through the East Med and Red Sea to reorg.
(22) I don't know if I'm dreaming this, but I believe I heard somewhere that the CW may close the Suez Canal to Italy anytime prior to war for a US entry hit.
(23) Even if that's not included in MWIF, if Italy tries to extract that corps by moving a transport on the first impulse of turn 1 and then RTB back through the canal on axis #3, this means that either Italy will not DOW the CW on axis #3 or if they do, will lose that Italian transport.
(24) So to me, I just can't see Italy making that move (i.e., moving a TRS to the Red Sea on impulse #1), unless the RN and French navy is very weak and non-threatening in the Med.
(25) So my question is, especially if you're playing with isolated reorg, how do folks make use of the Italian X inf corps that must be setup in East Africa?

Combat Logs. End of Turn.
CBI. India. East Africa. PTO. Singapore & Malaya.

As always, looking forward to it. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. The Eastern Front.

Attack Planning.
(1) Throughout the turn I use my Attack Planning and 2D10 CRT calculators (i.e., EXCEL spreadsheets) to support land combat operations.
(2) Not every land combat is processed this way, but a number of critical ones are.
(3) Also, no every potential land combat processed is a "YES GO" (i.e., actual make the attack) so are a "NO GO".
(4) I wanted to take a minute go through how I use these tools in my planning and also explain the column definition.
(5) Yellow columns in the 2D10 AP tool are calculated by the spreadsheet, the remainder are user entered.
(6) The first 10 columns up to Target are self explanatory.
(7) Under the "Land Units" category, #A = # of ground units attacking, #D = # of ground units defending, #I = # of the attacking ground units that are invading (paradrop and/or amphibious). #I is included (i.e., a subset) of #A.
(8) Under the "Attacker" and "Defender" categories, LCF = total (modified) land combat factors attacking (defending), GSF = total (modified) ground support factors, SBF = total (modified) shore bombardment factors, AM = total attack modifiers, DM = total defense modifiers (Not AM >= 0 and DM <= 0).
(9) OD = odds.
(10) Unless the land combat is automatic, I will enter this data into my 2D10 CRT calculator to get the land combat stats, which I copy and paste directly from the Reports Tab of the 2D10 CRT calculator.
(11) The two extreme right columns, label OD* & AF*, where OD* is an optional user entry and AF* is calculated, are desired or target odds (OD*).
(12) AF* is then the total, modified attack factors = Attacker LCF + GSF + SBF required to achieve the desired or target odds.
(13) The AF* calculation does NOT use attacker LCF, GSF or SBF; but does use everything else (i.e., AM, DM and defender LCF, GSF, SBF).
(14) Be forewarn that I often (or maybe sometimes) find that my odds calculation is in error as I've missed counted factors and/or modifiers in the land combat.
(15) Again, if I were to wargame it accurately first before my actual land combat declaration I would eliminate these type errors.
(16) However; I must confess that would be a bit time consuming to do that for every land combat!
(17) Critical point though, even if I decide before on a land combat (i.e., GO = YES); I may still abort that combat during the land combat declaration phase if I change my mind or if I discover some gross planning error.
(18) However; once that land combat is declared and that phase is ended, I'm committed regardless of any oversights (e.g., defensive ground support, shore bombardment, HQ support).
(19) Again, wargaming through those phases does eliminate those oversights but adds to my playing time.
(20) I do intend to eliminate those oversights through more careful planning and even through wargaming especially when I'm tired.
(21) We'll see how all that plays out as I progress through this war.
(22) Back to providing my Attack Planning "Worksheets", I provide those to both help me in reviewing and documenting my past turn (hence support my AAR) and as insights to you into my land combat planning.
(23) For example, on Axis #1, Germany had a 97.8% chance of attacking and successfully taking Lodz.
(24) However; lessons learned from my previous rage quits (documented in the background section of this AAR), taught me that the 2.2% risk of failure, with full flips, would wreck my game from the very start.
(25) Also, this 2.2% risk was NOT necessary as experienced as taught me, and as you shall see, the strong German setup vs Poland was adequate to completely take Poland out on turn 1 with NO risk.

2D10 Attack Planner (ver 10). 2D1O CRT Calculator (ver 10).

Main Tab. Reports Tab.

anarchyintheuk wrote: Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:03 pm As always, looking forward to it. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

You bet! Thanks for following and please feel free to contribute or question as you see fit.

Also, I ask all to please excuse spelling and grammatical errors. Maybe that'll improve? I've asked my son to help set me up with AI technology to both help me "write" the text and also pull in relevant historical references. I've been wanting to learn how to do this and see if I can use AI to write a better and grammatically correct narrative.

Or maybe that's a pipe dream?

For now, I'm still writing the text the old fashion way; hence, the spelling and grammatical errors. Also, I have no intention of using AI for the combat logs; just to hopefully help me with these post turn AAR narratives.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. The Eastern Front.

Combat Logs.