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Let's assume all enemy units are static, thus supply tracing values should remain static too since enemy movements don't interfere with supply movement anymore.

This is supply tracing form Chungking. As you can see Chengchow, Loyang and Tsiaotso are below 49 value, which means LCUs there cannot hope to get replacemnts directly from Chungking (the Chinese national capital). You need at least 50 value to be eligible for them. Those lower values were somewhat constant in my games until now.


Lo and behold, in another restart of scen001, the supply tracing values inexplicably jumped up, and now the three cities are above 49 value.


If you looks closely a strange thing is going on:

-in empty Main Road hexes values drop by 3 points every hex. However, if there is an LCU in a hex, the values drop just by 2 points
-in empty Minor Road hexes values drop by 5 points every hex. However, if there is an LCU in a hex, the values drop just by 4 points

It seems the code is either:

-using support squads in LCUs to piggy-back supply
OR
-the above is false, and the higher supply tracing values are actually once-in-a-week values, where the code pushes masses of supply/res/fuel on a weekly basis among bases on the map.

EDIT: Corrected the Minor Roads' value reductions.

The numbers are not guaranteed percentage values, they are more like the supply draw/ease of movement value that will pull supplies in that direction. The original 100 supply at Chungking cannot possibly go to all those hexes so it will go to some combination of supply draw by units/bases and ease of movement. The overall picture is a rough indication of chances of supply reaching any given hex.
Note that choosing another supply source might show more supply probability going to some of the same hexes that the Chunking starting point is also trying to supply.

If the code uses LCUs to reduce supply tracing, I could create a sort of a Ho Chi Minh trail stretching from Chungking to Sian and later to Chengchow. Using smallest corps possible and dviding them into ABC, I can cover the whole route, and up my chances of taking replacements directly from Chungking in the forward areas.

I can also create even smaller LCU fragments by flying airliftable divisions by transport aircraft.

I need 12 subunits for Chungking-Sian route, and then a total of 6 subunits for Sian-Chengchow and Sian-Nanyang routes. This should up my tracing at the terminus bases by 15 points.

I have just checked supply tracing originating from Sian.

Notice that the two LCUs sitting on the Main Rail hexes south of Sian actually reduce supply tracing loss from 1 to 0(sic!) points, thus the supply tracing value is 100 in those hexes. Normally, empty Main Rail hexes will lose 1 point of tracing with each empty hex.

For the Chinese, except for very limited units, you don't want them to draw replacements until the Allies transport millions of supplies to China. Otherwise, the supplies disappear.

The primary exception is for units drawing supplies from India or other Allied sources. Another exception may be to enlarge a few corps to become massive roadblocks to the Japanese. But these units should have higher moral and experience plus excellent leaders.

The best use for the supplies in China is to get squads undisabled. The disabled squads do use supplies but they add very little to the combat capabilities of the unit. When you have enough supplies to draw replacements, you will want to draw support squads if the unit does not have enough support.

Yeah, the LCUs draw supply TO themselves to use up, not to pass along to others. Making a line of units along a road will use up supply rather than pass it along. You want to have your extra units beyond the place you are trying to draw supply to.
Reduction of supply potential along any path represents supply diverted to other paths or spoilage. I haven't found a use for the key 5 supply imaging other than a rough idea of how much could reach your off-road troops.
I also guess that the numbers shown are for the next turn run. Over a series of turns supply could move further down the road than the game is showing?

I mentioned replacements (>49 trace value, so 50 is enough) but there are two other important tresholds:

49 value at a terminus base - the base can receive supplies three days a week
89 value at a terminus base - the base can receive supplies SEVEN days a week

So, if putting ant units along a supply path gets you to 49/50 or 89 tresholds, then it may make sense to do so, depending on what you want to achieve at terminus bases.

Now, I tried to get Pucheng/Chushien/Wenchow in a 89 value range, starting from Pingsiang (120 Res centers) or Changsha (supply). Unfortunately, covering the whole path with units will only get those bases to 81-85 valeu range or less, depending how you position your LCUs. Thus, in this case putting ants makes no sense and the LCUs are better used doing something else.

On the other hand, getting Chengchow/Loyang/Tsiaotso in 50+ value range may help with their defence and chance of getting replacement from Chungking.

Ok, your intent is the opposite of what I was thinking. I expected you wanted to get more supply to Chunking, not get replacements along the road. Not sure if Chunking can provide replacements if the supply level there is too low, so that would have to build up first?

Chungking always has lots of supplies, at least in the beginning of GC.