[1674] Missiles don't seem to loft enough against evading targets
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2025 6:46 am
Here are two scenarios I set up to demonstrate a strange effect with the new missile lofting logic. In each scenario there is a DDG firing SM-6 Blk IA (max range of 230nm) at an aircraft.
In "Bug_Lofting_DistantTargetExample.zip," the target is an airliner (no situational awareness, so no auto evasion) at a range of 165nm. The SM-6 is launched and lofts aggressively to ~25000m altitude. It reaches the target at a distance of 165nm with around 1200kts of speed left, which is plenty to make a kill likely. This seems accurate.
In "Bug_Lofting_CloseTargetExample.zip," the target is a fighter (that will evade the missile) at a much shorter range of 35nm, less than 1/6 of the max range of the SM-6. Here, after firing, the SM-6 does not seem to loft enough to reach the fighter after it has ran away some distance. By the time the missile has traveled 40nm, it is already down to 1200kts and has lost nearly all its energy—whereas in the first scenario, it traveled 4x farther before reaching that low energy state. As a result, the fighter easily escapes what should have likely been a no-escape-zone shot.
I don't know exactly what's happening here, but it seems possible that the lofting logic is too optimistic about the target (i.e. assumes it will maintain its current course) and doesn't adjust to loft higher when the target turns around. Whatever the cause, it makes SAMs have much shorter effective ranges against evading targets than would be achievable with smarter lofting.
In "Bug_Lofting_DistantTargetExample.zip," the target is an airliner (no situational awareness, so no auto evasion) at a range of 165nm. The SM-6 is launched and lofts aggressively to ~25000m altitude. It reaches the target at a distance of 165nm with around 1200kts of speed left, which is plenty to make a kill likely. This seems accurate.
In "Bug_Lofting_CloseTargetExample.zip," the target is a fighter (that will evade the missile) at a much shorter range of 35nm, less than 1/6 of the max range of the SM-6. Here, after firing, the SM-6 does not seem to loft enough to reach the fighter after it has ran away some distance. By the time the missile has traveled 40nm, it is already down to 1200kts and has lost nearly all its energy—whereas in the first scenario, it traveled 4x farther before reaching that low energy state. As a result, the fighter easily escapes what should have likely been a no-escape-zone shot.
I don't know exactly what's happening here, but it seems possible that the lofting logic is too optimistic about the target (i.e. assumes it will maintain its current course) and doesn't adjust to loft higher when the target turns around. Whatever the cause, it makes SAMs have much shorter effective ranges against evading targets than would be achievable with smarter lofting.
