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While testing today news of a Patriot destroying a Kinzhal in Ukraine, noticed that the Stinger that are also present in a Patriot unit, were also fired.

A hit resulting in a minor trajectory desviation is rather common. But, though very rare, they are even able to destroy the Kinzhal, should this be possible when the speed of the BM is around M10?

Added a second Patriot unit to illustrate it better and the Patriot missiles themselves were removed. Fire them manually when the Kinzhal is on range for a better result.

The SAM section is not able to fire.


The only lucky hit and destruction was this:

10-Oct-25 14:51:53 - FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #8 HIT: Weapon: FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #8 is attacking AS-24 Killjoy [Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 700kg HE Penetrator] RV #5 with a base PH of 65%. PH adjusted for weapon speed: 2% (pure-aerodynamic attitude control). Target speed modifier: -50%. Final PH: 1% Result: 1 - HIT.

10-Oct-25 14:51:53 - [Ukraine] Contact FIREBALL #1 has been lost.

Looking at the message log, the effect of the Kinzhal's speed is to reduce the Stinger's PH from 65% to 15%. I'd say that's a pretty significant degradation.

If your next objection is going to be "but seriously, how is a Stinger hit even going to dent an incoming RV?", I'll pre-empt you with: "the guys who seriously work in this field are worried even about the disruptive effect of mere RAIN DROPLETS on RVs, let alone a warhead detonation right next to them".

(And to the inevitable smart-arse who will smirk "Well then, Stingers obviously are the perfect solution to the west's BMD needs": Sure, if a "1% PK on a good day" weapon with a 100m*100m*100m coverage bubble works for you.)

Tested again and got another lucky hit and destruction

Paused, here is the screenshot with the speed, and the log.

10-Oct-25 14:51:55 - FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #10 MISS: Weapon: FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #10 is attacking AS-24 Killjoy [Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 700kg HE Penetrator] RV #5 with a base PH of 65%. Target speed modifier: -50%. Final PH: 15% Result: 47 - MISS.

10-Oct-25 14:51:55 - FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #8 HIT: Weapon: FIM-92E Stinger RMP Blk I #8 is attacking AS-24 Killjoy [Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 700kg HE Penetrator] RV #5 with a base PH of 65%. Target speed modifier: -50%. Final PH: 15% Result: 11 - HIT.

10-Oct-25 14:51:55 - [Ukraine] Contact FIREBALL #1 has been lost.

Yes, you've found the answer to the Kinzhal threat, congrats. Go tell the Ukrainians.

Dimitris wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 5:54 pm Yes, you've found the answer to the Kinzhal threat, congrats. Go tell the Ukrainians.

Added a clause to impact evaluation in such cases; if the target's speed is much higher than the weapon's max design target speed, PH drops to 1% (pure luck).

OK, thanks.

And what was before? The second destruction result was 11.

Regarding the minor trajectory desviation at 11500 m of altitude, should it have any effect? The Ks seem to always impact the target hit or not.

Please read this before asking more and more and more questions: https://command.matrixgames.com/?p=4076

Just posting in case it is a side unwanted consequence of the tweak.

SS-N-23 MIRVs are too fast for the Arrow 3 and SM-3 missiles, and so they are penalized.

I can post a scen in a separate thread if needed.

Yes, please open a dedicated thread for this.

.

I have done a lot of work on ABM engagements in CMO over the years. I have also done a lot of research on what real-world engagements look like, as much as an amateur can. Even in good test conditions, the history of ABM testing is around a 50% success rate. It has gotten progressively better. But still requires several very important things:

1) As early detection of launch as possible
2) A good fire control and tracking solution as far away as possible
3) A Very good match between the type of BM and the engaging weapon. (All ABM systems have very narrow target parameters for altitude, speed, and spot in its path.)
4) A VERY narrow and specific engagement angle for the firing unit...straight on, receding, crossing, etc.

Thats in real-life and in CMO. I'm sure CMO is not perfect and can always be adjusted. But most of the engagements I play with seem fairly plausible. Its not easy or just "point and shoot" in real life or in CMO. It takes careful analysis, patience, knowledge of your tools, luck from the radar gods, and a lot of ABM missiles. It also takes a lot of practice. Even in CMO its very complex and take practice and some careful assuming of threats to work.