Questions Regarding LRDR, SBX-1 and GBI's
Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2025 2:18 am
I've been experimenting with the scenario from the book Nuclear War: A Scenario. Interesting book that came out in 2024. The scenario depicted in House of Dynamite is similar to the book but, it was not based on the book. I'm using v1.08 build 1706
Based on the attached test scenario I have the following questions.
-Is the SBX-1 successfully tracking an ICBM required for a successful engagement by the GBI's?
-Is the SBX-1 WAD or is something amiss?
-Why does LRDR not track the ICBM inthis scenario? It doesn't seem to be WAD.
-Is it plausibly realistic for an Arleigh Burke DDG to successfully shoot down an incoming RV from an ICBM?
In my tests the DPRK ICBM is targeted on the Pentagon, Washington DC (like the book) and is setup to launch when the scenario starts. It's detected at 26 seconds in by SIBIRS and/or Checkmate satellites. I believe I have all the appropriate radar stations setup that could be in play.
AN/TPY-2 - JASDF Shariki
AN/TPY-2 - JASDF Kyougamisaki
AN/FPS-108 Cobra Dane - Shemya, Alaska
SBX-1 - Bering Sea near Adak, Alaska
LRDR - Clear SFS, Alaska
AN/FPS-115 - Beale AFB, California
AN/FPQ-16 (PARCS) - Cavalier SFS, North Dakota
I typically have the SBX-1 deployed to one of six random deployment locations in my tests; for the purposes of this test scenario I place it in the Bering Sea just north of Adak. It seems to work best there.
During play the DPRK ICBM is tracked by the AN/TPY-2 as the ICBM climbs. The SBX-1 sees the missile as it comes over Siberia but, no longer tracks as it comes over the Arctic. The LRDR in Alaska does not track the missile at all and the Alaska based GBI's do not fire. When attempting a manual attack the Weapon Allocation window indicates Automatic fire NOT possible, Unable to intercept target. The missile continues on and is tracked by the AN/FPQ-16 (PARCS) in North Dakota and GBI's are launched from the Vandenburg AFB site that have absolutely no chance of intercepting the RV. I've probably run through this over 100 times and the GBI from Vandenburg never come close. As the RV approaches the target it's launched on by a BMD equipped Arleigh Burke DDG of the east coast. It often takes out the RV (not in the book).
Sixteen minutes into the scenario a DPRK SSB about 300 to 350 nm of the off the California coast launches an SLBM towards Diablo Canyon NPP. The majority of the time the SLBM is easily shot down by the Vandenburg GBI. The satellites and Pave Paws at Beale AFB detect and track that missile. (No mention of any attempt to engage the SLBM in the book)
So the GBI's seem to work real well against the SLBM but, not at all against the ICBM. I don't understand why the LRDR doesn't detect the ICBM (maybe a bug?) or why the GBI's in Alaska can't intercept the ICBM.
I can't rule out that I may be doing something wrong with this scenario. Thanks for taking a look see.
Based on the attached test scenario I have the following questions.
-Is the SBX-1 successfully tracking an ICBM required for a successful engagement by the GBI's?
-Is the SBX-1 WAD or is something amiss?
-Why does LRDR not track the ICBM inthis scenario? It doesn't seem to be WAD.
-Is it plausibly realistic for an Arleigh Burke DDG to successfully shoot down an incoming RV from an ICBM?
In my tests the DPRK ICBM is targeted on the Pentagon, Washington DC (like the book) and is setup to launch when the scenario starts. It's detected at 26 seconds in by SIBIRS and/or Checkmate satellites. I believe I have all the appropriate radar stations setup that could be in play.
AN/TPY-2 - JASDF Shariki
AN/TPY-2 - JASDF Kyougamisaki
AN/FPS-108 Cobra Dane - Shemya, Alaska
SBX-1 - Bering Sea near Adak, Alaska
LRDR - Clear SFS, Alaska
AN/FPS-115 - Beale AFB, California
AN/FPQ-16 (PARCS) - Cavalier SFS, North Dakota
I typically have the SBX-1 deployed to one of six random deployment locations in my tests; for the purposes of this test scenario I place it in the Bering Sea just north of Adak. It seems to work best there.
During play the DPRK ICBM is tracked by the AN/TPY-2 as the ICBM climbs. The SBX-1 sees the missile as it comes over Siberia but, no longer tracks as it comes over the Arctic. The LRDR in Alaska does not track the missile at all and the Alaska based GBI's do not fire. When attempting a manual attack the Weapon Allocation window indicates Automatic fire NOT possible, Unable to intercept target. The missile continues on and is tracked by the AN/FPQ-16 (PARCS) in North Dakota and GBI's are launched from the Vandenburg AFB site that have absolutely no chance of intercepting the RV. I've probably run through this over 100 times and the GBI from Vandenburg never come close. As the RV approaches the target it's launched on by a BMD equipped Arleigh Burke DDG of the east coast. It often takes out the RV (not in the book).
Sixteen minutes into the scenario a DPRK SSB about 300 to 350 nm of the off the California coast launches an SLBM towards Diablo Canyon NPP. The majority of the time the SLBM is easily shot down by the Vandenburg GBI. The satellites and Pave Paws at Beale AFB detect and track that missile. (No mention of any attempt to engage the SLBM in the book)
So the GBI's seem to work real well against the SLBM but, not at all against the ICBM. I don't understand why the LRDR doesn't detect the ICBM (maybe a bug?) or why the GBI's in Alaska can't intercept the ICBM.
I can't rule out that I may be doing something wrong with this scenario. Thanks for taking a look see.