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Old Grudges Never Die 1/6/2016

Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2025 8:18 pm
by fitzpatv
This is a smallish but still complex scenario set during the Syrian Civil War. You can play the Turkish or Russian side but the latter is the default.

As commander of the Russian expeditionary force in Syria, you are charged with supporting the Assad regime against its various foes while avoiding difficulties with NATO. To do this, you have the CG Moskva, a Buyan-class PCFG, two Kilos and an AGI, plus a mixed force of aircraft. The latter includes just eight fighters (all Flankers) and is weighted towards strike duties, with ten Fencers, four modern Fullbacks, ten Frogfeet and a dozen assorted choppers. There are also two ELINT planes, a May MPA and three recon UAVs. The base at Khmeinim, near Latakia, is guarded by a Growler site and three Greyhound battalions.

Russian Strategic Forces are conducting strikes against ISIS under AI control and have some Blackjack heavy bombers with Kodiak cruise missiles, a couple of Mainstays and some Fullbacks, which are being used as CAP over the Southern Caucasus. They intend to send some missiles over Turkey today and this, it is feared, might lead to some unpleasantness in the wake of Ankara downing a Russian attack plane recently.

Also under AI control are Assad’s forces, which comprise 15 Foxbat and Fulcrum fighters and 11 Flogger G attack planes. The latter plan to strike some of the other Syrian factions today. They have a Gammon site and some Gainfuls, Goas and Guidelines to defend their bases.

The immediate opposition consists of ISIS, the broadly pro-Western Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the pro-Turkish faction grandly styling itself the ‘Army of Conquest’. All of these have infantry units, the Army of Conquest have some howitzers and ISIS some ‘technicals’ and Grail and Gimlet MANPADs. ISIS and, to a lesser extent, the FSA control a number of oil wells and other installations, which provide targets for the protagonists.

The Kurds are considered allies of the Russians, presumably because they are enemies of the Turks and ISIS alike. They have some infantry and are deployed along two sections of the Turkish border.

As for Turkey, they start Unfriendly to Russia due to recent incursions by Russian aircraft. Ankara has a Perry frigate, the Gediz, to the NE of Cyprus and a diesel sub in the same general area and both carry Harpoons. The Turks have two squadrons of F-16s with AMRAAMs at Diyarbakir and one of F-4s, potentially with stand-off missiles, at Malatya. They have some I-HAWKs and Rapiers at these bases.

The US has an Arleigh Burke DDG and a Los Angeles SSN in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as F-15s and F-16s at Incirlik, Turkey and Orions on Sicily. A Spanish Patriot battery helps protect Incirlik.

Other NATO forces include a CVBG built around the French carrier Charles de Gaulle and the British air base at Akrotiri on Cyprus.

Given Russia’s lack of fighters and the uncertain nature of Syrian support, they are best-advised to concentrate on defending their base while conducting strikes against ISIS, which shouldn’t upset anyone else too much. Anything that brings NATO into a conflict with Turkey, should this break-out, would put the expeditionary force in a hopeless position. If the Turks choose to carry-on bombing the Kurds, as they have been doing, there really isn’t a lot Russia can do about it.

So I ordered all my naval units to converge on Latakia for mutual support and organised CAP and ASW zones around the port. Strike aircraft would only be available a few at a time and most would be limited to the hours of daylight, with the scenario beginning at 9:30am, local time (7:30Z).

1/6/16 07:30Z: I launched two Fencers, armed with Karens, against the ISIS oil wells E of Aleppo, on the basis that it was best to deal with these targets early before Turkey got involved. You need to read the small print in the database where Karens, Kedges and KAB-500Kr weapons are concerned, as a quick glance misleads you into thinking they can be launched from up to 65,000’. This is, in fact, the maximum altitude above SEA level, but they are limited to a maximum of around 16,000’ above GROUND level. With this hiccup overcome, the two attack planes destroyed four oil wells for a VP each. ISIS fired some Grails, but we were still far too high for these to have any chance of hitting us.

Two Syrian Floggers hit the FSA, taking-out an infantry platoon with frag bombs. This also scored us a VP.

Two more headed for the Manbij oil refinery near the Turkish border and held by ISIS. On the way, they met an American F-16 on its way to strike other ISIS targets near Deir-ez-Zor in E Syria. No doubt upset by the Syrian attacks on the FSA, this shot one of the MiGs down, though it cost us no points, then continued on its way. The second Flogger managed to damage the refinery and got back to base. It seemed that, despite the US fighter being marked Hostile by the AI, we weren’t yet at war with the States.

08:00Z: The trigger-happy F-16 destroyed an ISIS oil well, which scored a VP for our side!. True international co-operation against the common terrorist threat, I guess…

The French mounted a strike with Super Etendards, escorted by Rafales, against the Manbij area, doing more damage to the refinery but somehow losing a fighter as well as an attack plane to the Grails. Meanwhile, Turkish F-4s struck the Kurds in the NW, doing step-losses to some infantry.

09:00Z: Coalition strikes on ISIS continued. By this time, we had another two Fencers ready and sent them to destroy an apparently high-priority bridge near Raqqa, to find that it just scored 1VP like everything else. Matters weren’t helped by the brilliant desert glare that players have to put up with in this part of the world, which makes it very hard to read the datablocks (in white text) or even to see aircraft and other units classified as Unknown (which are shown in pale yellow). It would be nice to be able to change the datablock colour.

The Russian ambassador to Ankara was summoned to receive a protest about ‘bombing Turkey’s favourite rebels again’, even though we hadn’t attacked the Army of Conquest and only the Syrians had bombed the FSA. If you’re spoiling for a fight, any excuse will do, I guess.

As for the Kodiak strikes, missiles had been fired but with no visible effect. At least they hadn’t caused an incident, as feared.

The Fencers shot-up some more ISIS facilities in the Deir-ez-Zor area, taking the score to +21, which is Average.
It seemed that, regardless of what the player does, there are regular random checks to see if Turkey accuses Russia of a hostile act. Thus far, none of these checks had provoked this reaction.

Despite this, the Turkish submarine decided to put-in an appearance off Latakia and launch Harpoons at the Russian AGI. It could only loose two at a time and the Growlers easily dealt with the opening pair. Our May and Moskva’s Helix began searching for the sub.

The Gediz then joined-in and fired another two Harpoons, which were shot-down by Moskva’s Grumbles. The cruiser responded with eight Sandboxes, but the Turkish frigate stopped seven and the last one malfunctioned. Moskva used the rest of his sixteen missiles and the seventh of these did the trick, scoring 100VP.

To my total astonishment, this ended the game, either as a Russian victory or a draw (+124 was still Average), it not being clear which. Apparently, the sinking of a major warship gave Turkey pause and pressure from the US and EU persuaded both sides to cease hostilities.

Russia lost nothing, Syria a Flogger and the Kurds 15 ground elements.

Turkey lost an FFG.

ISIS lost 29 ground elements and the FSA, four.

France lost a Rafale and Super Etendard.

So, lots of preparation and a premature finish. Shame, as it had seemed to be a different and maybe subtle scenario. Oh, well...