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I am playing a head-to-head game with a friend. He controls the Axis powers, and I play as the Allies.

From the start up to January 1941, the general course of events followed history. Germany and the Soviet Union partitioned Poland, and the Soviet Union attacked Finland. Germany launched its offensive in the Western Front in the spring of 1940, and France surrendered in September 1940. Hungary, Romania and other nations joined the Axis bloc. In Asia, Japan kept pressing its attacks against China, and Communist Chinese forces entered the war at the end of 1940.

Here are the deviations from historical events or conventional gameplay: Germany recognized the Vichy French regime, but declared war on and eliminated Vichy France in the subsequent turn. Germany annexed Lithuania and did not leave it for the Soviet Union; as a result, the Soviet Union only occupied the remaining Estonia and Latvia. The Italian Navy escaped the Mediterranean from Gibraltar. Instead of heading for the English Channel, it sailed south, yet it was completely annihilated by the Royal Navy in the Indian Ocean by the end of 1940. Per our house rules, Germany declared war on Yugoslavia in January 1941 and easily occupied it in the following turn.

Then the strange incident occurred: At the end of the Allied turn on January 31, 1941, we received the message "The Soviet Union is preparing for war", and Soviet war readiness reached 92%. When the Axis turn for February 1941 ended, the Soviet Union entered the war and joined the Allied side. All Soviet units along the Soviet-German border were automatically deployed. However, under this condition, the Soviet Union had not declared war on Germany; the two sides remained in a standoff with no active combat.

At first, we assumed that either too many or too few Axis troops stationed along the Soviet-German border triggered the sharp rise in Soviet war readiness. After testing, however, the number of his Axis units on the Soviet-German border was neither below 4 nor above 18, so this should not have triggered the event that accelerates Soviet war preparation.

So what could cause the Soviet Union to suddenly enter the war as early as February 1941?

Here is a list of some of the things that can increase USSR mobilisation beyond normal:

1. Germany taking Poland in one turn
2. USSR not invading Finland
3. Germany annexing Lithuania (BIG)
4. Every single AXIS DoW (e.g. Belgium, Lux, Denmark). The increase is only small but they all add up, The only exception is Greece if the DoW is by the Italian event.
5. Insufficient units in Manchuria
6. The surrender of Yugoslavia (not just the DoW)
7. Axis units close to Cairo
8. Too few units in Poland up to 1941
9. Too many units in Poland after 1941
10. Too many units in Romania after 1941
11. Sea Lion

As you can see, a lot can go wrong. Manchuria is often the issue but you would have seen a warning. There are messages if you trigger Manchuria, Cairo or Sea Lion. There is a pre warning for Lithuania. There are no messages for the other triggers apart from the map borders re Poland and Romania.

That's all I can think of just now. Let me know if you need further details.