Unfreezing Analysis:Tactical Brilliance, or Pandoras box?
Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 12:16 am
The following is Part II in a series of analyses of GGWAW. While not by any means scientific or without debate, these essays are my attempt to help out the new gamer or add some interesting topics to discuss. Gary Grigsby’s game World at War is, in my opinion, a genre defining game that blends all of the components of global warfare into a relatively seamless and streamlined experience. Hopefully, if you are reading these forum postings and yet to be an owner and player of the game, this will inspire you to get your copy today!
On to the discourse…
“Un-Freezing” Russia; Tactical brilliance or Pandora’s box?
World War II erupted in September of 1939. Every year thereafter saw some new declaration of war until the world was completely engulfed in the conflagration. This dissertation is an attempt to analyze the cost-benefit of declarations of war upon politically frozen nations, namely, the Soviet Union. This analysis is taken from the point of view of the Axis (Germany), as they are the only nations “allowed” to declare war per se.
Initially one might say that to follow a historical approach would be the least effective as the result was ultimate destruction of the Axis. While this may a bit presumptuous, I think it is not without merit. The Axis, in particular Germany, has the luxury of deciding upon the time and location of any declaration of war on the Soviet Union. Likewise, Japan has the same power of war on the U.S. The Axis must use this power of engagement to the utmost effect. While the surprise effect is powerful, that should not be the deciding factor in when and where to attack. A few extra units damaged or destroyed in the long run is not worth a premature declaration.
Germany:
Germany has the painful decision of when to plow headlong into Russia. If they do not make the decision, Stalin will choose it for them. This being said, the German player must spend the time between the war’s beginning and Winter ’43 preparing for this conflict. Ultimately, all else is merely a prelude to “Barbarosa.” This gives the German player eleven (11) turns maximum to plan the attack on Russia. After this point, the Soviet Union is free to attack and completely unfrozen politically.
In making the decision when to attack the Soviet Union, several factors must be weighed. The German player must have the units available to fight, they must be on the border, the tech level must be significantly ahead in a couple areas, supplies must be ready and numerous, air power must be overwhelming, Europe’s borders must be secure against the allies, resources must be sufficient for long term operations and space must be ready in the production queue for damaged units that will be heading to factories in large quantities. All of these must be considered before unleashing the fury onto Russia.
This first analysis is a look at the production points “cost” for attacking Russia earlier than Winter 1943.
The Soviet Union has a total of 13 factories in the ’40 campaign. These 13 factories will produce at x2 mulitplier from the beginning of the campaign until Winter ’42 at which time they kick up to x3 multiplier. The following Production Points are what the S.U. will be able to churn out over that time unmolested.
(13 factories x 2 = 26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Wi ’42 = 7 seasons) = 182 pps
(13 factories x 3 = 39 pps per season) x (Wi ’42 – Wi ’43 = 4 seasons) = 156 pps
So, if left to their own devices until the time when Russia can declare war, they will have produced (assuming resource availability) 338 pps.
If Germany chooses to attack Russia in a historical time frame, lets say Su ’41, then the numbers look like this: (assuming Kiev, kharkov and Belorussia all fall immediately and the other historical factories remain)
(13 factories x 2 =26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Su ’41 = 4 seasons) = 104 pps
(10 factories x 3 = 30 pps per seson) x (Su ’41 – Wi ’43 = 7 seasons) = 210 pps
So, with an early attack, for the same time period, the Soviet Union would net (approx.) 314 pps in the same amount of seasons. This is a net loss for the Soviets of (approx.) 24 production points.
As this illustration demonstrates, the loss of one or more factories for the Soviet Union can hamper production drastically. Once at the x3 modifier, each factory lost is THREE production points. In the above example, this is conservative. If Gorki, Rostov or Leningrad fall as well, then the cumulative effect is greater.
So…is 24 pps worth invading Russia in Summer 1941? To answer this requires some further analysis.
The assumption in the “invasion ‘41” scenario is that at the very least Kiev, Kharkov and Belorussia fall to the German onslaught. If this does NOT occur, then the net effect would probably be in the Russian favor to be invaded (oddly enough). Another factor that must be considered is the available resources for the “accelerated” factories. The Soviet Union has potentially 32 resource centers to pull from. Six of these are within rapid striking distance for Germany. If these six are lost or even damaged and unable to be repaired, then the potential production per turn for the Soviets drops to 26 maximum. In other words, the factories multiplied may be there for use, but no resources are available to manufacture!
Another scenario is a “catastrophic” invasion for Russia where Kiev, Kharkov, Belorussia AND Leningrad fall in the first turn of the invasion. This not only knocks the SU down another factory, but also releases the Finns for duty with the Fuhrer. For the Germans, this is of highly useful effect. Those five infantry and fighter are quickly useful to capture Karelia and thus threaten the lend lease route for the Western Allies to send supplies to the embattled Russia.
Ultimately, the decision to open up the war in Russia is not one to be taken lightly. Once the German player does, all forces and energy of the nation must be directed at the Soviets. Limited operations intended to forestall a Western Allies invasion are all that should be attempted elsewhere. To fight in Russia AND Africa or other locales is tantamount to suicide for the German player. Invading Russia early has the potential to be devastatingly successful. Waiting to invade has the potential to be decisively unsuccessful. Based on the production “curve” and cumulative effect of overwhelming economic might, In my opinion, a rapid 1940 or 1941 invasion would be best. Use misdirection and cunning to make the Allies shift troops to Africa, North Atlantic and elsewhere. Then, when they have units in the Russian factories on the front line, smash into them with all the ferocity you can manage. Wreck rail lines, Para drop into empty second line regions and in general do as much damage as you can. The first winter after the invasion, DO NOT ATTACK, but rather form a line and prepare to be hit. Immediately after the Winter turn, go for the jugular. Do everything in Germany’s power to decapitate Russia. Roll over undefended resources and factories – DON’T REBUILD YET. Keep steamrolling. Attack and destroy stacks of units, don’t be mislead into Moscow. They don’t surrender if it falls. Kill all the Russian forces, that is the only 100% victory. Use heavy bombers to airdrop supplies instead of repairing rail lines, saves on resources. Repair just one main rail line up through central Russia. Adjacent areas can suck supplies off this route. In the end, attack, surround and destroy Soviet units at all costs. If you can surround an out of supply army, then bypass it and keep going (just make sure they won’t be able to supply it somehow!). You can come back and mop up later.
While this analysis, by the simple fact that the game takes strange twists and turns, cannot be exacting, it can be a good basis to plan a strategy. The war is ever fluid and things pop up that need attention, however (this is a big however!) You cannot be distracted from your “overall grand strategic plan” that you implemented turn one. Stay the course with your initial strategy and keep plodding ahead. If the enemy causes you to switch goals mid stream, then they have already won…..
I will attempt to have a similar veined article on Japan soon. Hope that this will spur some discussion! (polite, civil, non-biased discussions of course!) [;)]
Good luck!
Mike McMann
On to the discourse…
“Un-Freezing” Russia; Tactical brilliance or Pandora’s box?
World War II erupted in September of 1939. Every year thereafter saw some new declaration of war until the world was completely engulfed in the conflagration. This dissertation is an attempt to analyze the cost-benefit of declarations of war upon politically frozen nations, namely, the Soviet Union. This analysis is taken from the point of view of the Axis (Germany), as they are the only nations “allowed” to declare war per se.
Initially one might say that to follow a historical approach would be the least effective as the result was ultimate destruction of the Axis. While this may a bit presumptuous, I think it is not without merit. The Axis, in particular Germany, has the luxury of deciding upon the time and location of any declaration of war on the Soviet Union. Likewise, Japan has the same power of war on the U.S. The Axis must use this power of engagement to the utmost effect. While the surprise effect is powerful, that should not be the deciding factor in when and where to attack. A few extra units damaged or destroyed in the long run is not worth a premature declaration.
Germany:
Germany has the painful decision of when to plow headlong into Russia. If they do not make the decision, Stalin will choose it for them. This being said, the German player must spend the time between the war’s beginning and Winter ’43 preparing for this conflict. Ultimately, all else is merely a prelude to “Barbarosa.” This gives the German player eleven (11) turns maximum to plan the attack on Russia. After this point, the Soviet Union is free to attack and completely unfrozen politically.
In making the decision when to attack the Soviet Union, several factors must be weighed. The German player must have the units available to fight, they must be on the border, the tech level must be significantly ahead in a couple areas, supplies must be ready and numerous, air power must be overwhelming, Europe’s borders must be secure against the allies, resources must be sufficient for long term operations and space must be ready in the production queue for damaged units that will be heading to factories in large quantities. All of these must be considered before unleashing the fury onto Russia.
This first analysis is a look at the production points “cost” for attacking Russia earlier than Winter 1943.
The Soviet Union has a total of 13 factories in the ’40 campaign. These 13 factories will produce at x2 mulitplier from the beginning of the campaign until Winter ’42 at which time they kick up to x3 multiplier. The following Production Points are what the S.U. will be able to churn out over that time unmolested.
(13 factories x 2 = 26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Wi ’42 = 7 seasons) = 182 pps
(13 factories x 3 = 39 pps per season) x (Wi ’42 – Wi ’43 = 4 seasons) = 156 pps
So, if left to their own devices until the time when Russia can declare war, they will have produced (assuming resource availability) 338 pps.
If Germany chooses to attack Russia in a historical time frame, lets say Su ’41, then the numbers look like this: (assuming Kiev, kharkov and Belorussia all fall immediately and the other historical factories remain)
(13 factories x 2 =26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Su ’41 = 4 seasons) = 104 pps
(10 factories x 3 = 30 pps per seson) x (Su ’41 – Wi ’43 = 7 seasons) = 210 pps
So, with an early attack, for the same time period, the Soviet Union would net (approx.) 314 pps in the same amount of seasons. This is a net loss for the Soviets of (approx.) 24 production points.
As this illustration demonstrates, the loss of one or more factories for the Soviet Union can hamper production drastically. Once at the x3 modifier, each factory lost is THREE production points. In the above example, this is conservative. If Gorki, Rostov or Leningrad fall as well, then the cumulative effect is greater.
So…is 24 pps worth invading Russia in Summer 1941? To answer this requires some further analysis.
The assumption in the “invasion ‘41” scenario is that at the very least Kiev, Kharkov and Belorussia fall to the German onslaught. If this does NOT occur, then the net effect would probably be in the Russian favor to be invaded (oddly enough). Another factor that must be considered is the available resources for the “accelerated” factories. The Soviet Union has potentially 32 resource centers to pull from. Six of these are within rapid striking distance for Germany. If these six are lost or even damaged and unable to be repaired, then the potential production per turn for the Soviets drops to 26 maximum. In other words, the factories multiplied may be there for use, but no resources are available to manufacture!
Another scenario is a “catastrophic” invasion for Russia where Kiev, Kharkov, Belorussia AND Leningrad fall in the first turn of the invasion. This not only knocks the SU down another factory, but also releases the Finns for duty with the Fuhrer. For the Germans, this is of highly useful effect. Those five infantry and fighter are quickly useful to capture Karelia and thus threaten the lend lease route for the Western Allies to send supplies to the embattled Russia.
Ultimately, the decision to open up the war in Russia is not one to be taken lightly. Once the German player does, all forces and energy of the nation must be directed at the Soviets. Limited operations intended to forestall a Western Allies invasion are all that should be attempted elsewhere. To fight in Russia AND Africa or other locales is tantamount to suicide for the German player. Invading Russia early has the potential to be devastatingly successful. Waiting to invade has the potential to be decisively unsuccessful. Based on the production “curve” and cumulative effect of overwhelming economic might, In my opinion, a rapid 1940 or 1941 invasion would be best. Use misdirection and cunning to make the Allies shift troops to Africa, North Atlantic and elsewhere. Then, when they have units in the Russian factories on the front line, smash into them with all the ferocity you can manage. Wreck rail lines, Para drop into empty second line regions and in general do as much damage as you can. The first winter after the invasion, DO NOT ATTACK, but rather form a line and prepare to be hit. Immediately after the Winter turn, go for the jugular. Do everything in Germany’s power to decapitate Russia. Roll over undefended resources and factories – DON’T REBUILD YET. Keep steamrolling. Attack and destroy stacks of units, don’t be mislead into Moscow. They don’t surrender if it falls. Kill all the Russian forces, that is the only 100% victory. Use heavy bombers to airdrop supplies instead of repairing rail lines, saves on resources. Repair just one main rail line up through central Russia. Adjacent areas can suck supplies off this route. In the end, attack, surround and destroy Soviet units at all costs. If you can surround an out of supply army, then bypass it and keep going (just make sure they won’t be able to supply it somehow!). You can come back and mop up later.
While this analysis, by the simple fact that the game takes strange twists and turns, cannot be exacting, it can be a good basis to plan a strategy. The war is ever fluid and things pop up that need attention, however (this is a big however!) You cannot be distracted from your “overall grand strategic plan” that you implemented turn one. Stay the course with your initial strategy and keep plodding ahead. If the enemy causes you to switch goals mid stream, then they have already won…..
I will attempt to have a similar veined article on Japan soon. Hope that this will spur some discussion! (polite, civil, non-biased discussions of course!) [;)]
Good luck!
Mike McMann
