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Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 12:18 pm
by Speedysteve
Hi all,

***Now must clarify this is not a rant or negative on the game but a query as to how the end decision was made***

What was used to substantiate the rate at which heavy bombers are shot down. Or in other words how did Matrix decide that loss rates against Tony's and Tojo's would be above 1:1?

The reason I ask this is that in my experience and from reading others AAR's. Sending unescorted Libs and Forts against a base with either of the above on CAP will in general lead to losses above 1:1 sometime even 5 or 6:1. My knowledge (granted not an expert on WW2 but know a fair bit I think) was that Forts and Libs sustained 1:1 losses or at worst 2:1 against 190's. Now once more in my opnion the 190 was a superior bomber destroyer than either the Tony or Tojo.

As I say its not a dig (this is a great game) i'm just intrigued as to what criteria was used to make heavy bombers so vulnerable in my opinion.

Regards,

Steven

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 12:59 pm
by Mr.Frag
You need better specifics.

A raid of how big?

What altitude?

Radar involved?

Heavy bombers are tough but not made of kryptonite.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 1:04 pm
by Captain Cruft
Well I don't know about fighters beginning with 'T' since I haven't got that far yet.

However in my last PBEM turn I had 4 Rufe float fighters of avg exp 69 shoot down 4 B-17s which came over at 6,000 ft for the loss of one plane only.

Seems a bit much to me.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 1:29 pm
by Speedysteve
Hi Frag,

I know they are not made of Kryptonite. Aluminium right [;)]

Here are examples from AAR's in AAR section:

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 38

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 destroyed, 15 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
61 casualties reported

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 11

Aircraft Attacking:
All B-17E Fortress bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 11
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 18

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 10 destroyed, 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 9

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 6000 feet

---------------------

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 7
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 22

Allied aircraft - this attack was completely turned away!
B-17E Fortress x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Day Air attack on Wewak , at 52,81 - again a weak B-17 attack is fended of.
By Tonys this time, the Daitai at Wewak now got 14 kills.

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 18

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 7

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 destroyed, 5 damaged

------------------------

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88 - the heavies that went to Rabaul were again fended of!

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 11
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 19

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 29

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 9 destroyed, 11 damaged

------------------

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88 - then Liberators from Lunga joined in and received a rough handling as well. Rabaul got away all
but unscatched!

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 19

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 39

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 25 destroyed, 19 damaged

Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 6000 feet
6 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 6000 feet

----------------------

Day Air attack on Rabaul , at 61,88 - once again the B-17s are turned away!

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 20

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 destroyed, 7 damaged

----------------

The above are taken from PZB's game vs David. I know Freeboy has commented on his B29's getting mauled unescorted during daytime against Zeta.

As say bud its not a moan just I think it may not be accurate. I know they are not invincible hence the 8th and Pac airforces decided to escort them but even when unescorted they were near enough 1:1 losses.

Anything else I can provide?

Regards,

Steven

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 1:53 pm
by tsimmonds
6000 feet is pretty low for 4E during the day. What were the non-FOW'd losses for the turn, how many of those losses were due to A2A and how many to AAA?

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 1:58 pm
by Speedysteve
Hi,

I'm not sure. It was taken from PZB's AAR. I still think the a2a loss ratio isn't 1:1 (that is taking into account the 190 which was a better aircraft!)

I tell you what i'll do though. I'll run a load of tests tonight from 45 campaign. Bombing Jap with B29. I'll also try B17/B24 if I can get the time (have to try and do my 1st Jap turn in campaign. At least 6 hours and counting.......)

What are others thoughts on heavy bomber a2a losses?

Regards,

Steven

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:00 pm
by Tom Hunter
Steven,

FoW usually doubles loss reports in the combat report. That is historical for fighter pilots by the way, bomber gunners reported shooting down as many as 10 times the actual number they killed.

So in this fight:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 20
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 23
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 destroyed, 7 damaged

Its likely the Americans lost 2-3 B17s.

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 19
Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 39
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 25 destroyed, 19 damaged

About 12 destroyed, this seems a little high to me but they are flying at really low altitude.

It does look like they are getting murdered even at 29 to 12 ( one kill for every 2.5 fighters) kill ratio but I do have to ask what are they doing down at 6,000 feet?

Personally I bomb between 12,000 feet and 24,000 feet almost all the time. Maybe that is why I never murdered Japanese airbases the way so many other players do, on the other hand maybe that is why I never took these kind of losses either.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:03 pm
by String
How about giving historical examples of unescorted daylight raids at 6000 ft with similar numbers of bobmers vs similar cap.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:03 pm
by Speedysteve
Hi guys,

Thanks for the heads up Tom.

This is also from AAR and these flew at 30,000.

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 24

Allied aircraft
F-5A Lightning x 5
B-17E Fortress x 70
B-24D Liberator x 40

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 7 destroyed, 16 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 5 destroyed, 5 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 5

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:05 pm
by Speedysteve
Hi String,

I don't have them for Pacific Theatre. I'm basing my feelings on the 8th's experience against a better bomber destroyer (FW190).

If people think the loss rate for heavy bombers in a2a is right then thats cool. I just thought i'd express my views that in my opinion there are shot down a little too much.

Do people want me to carry out tests tonight?

As say just thoughts and this game still rocks [8D]

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:08 pm
by Tom Hunter
Here are some of my raids for comparison:

I knew Songakhia was full of fighters so I came in high:

Day Air attack on Songkhia , at 24,43
Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 21
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 21
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-21 Sally: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 7 damaged
Runway hits 1
Aircraft Attacking:
18 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 24000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 24000 feet


Here is one where no one gets hurt on either side, this happened 2 or 3 days in a row with 14-17 B17s and 6 Zeros at 14,000 feet each time.

Day Air attack on Kendari , at 33,71

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 6
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 17
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
Dec. 15, B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged, Dec 16, B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged
Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 14000 feet
6 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 14000 feet

Personally I don't like the Tonys because they would inflict larger losses but still much less than the other player was taking at 6,000 feet.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 2:54 pm
by Mr.Frag
Heavy bombers at low altitude means 100% of the cap is going to intercept successfully.

It is always a trade off between safety and effectiveness. You want to come in low to get higher damage, you pay the price in AA & Cap damage.

Higher means less AA and Cap.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:09 pm
by Lemurs!
Are those losses for bombers also including flak? That could be a fair portion.

Also, remember not to jump on changing bomber stats. This loss weirdness has much to do with the way kills are gained. It seems to line up a plane with an opposing plane. If plane #1 gets a kill then it lines up with plane #2 enemy. If it kills that it goes to #3.
We have all seen these kill chains.
This is an artifact of the AtA system not the bombers per se.
I don't mind pilots getting second kills but i would like the chance that they go for each additional kill lowered SLIGHTLY.

I think that would have a good effect on this.

Mike

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:10 pm
by Speedysteve
You want me to do some tests Ray or is all cool and through testing it was ok too? In short could it just be the odd random occurence, maybe i'm seeing the bombers flying too low?

I guess it could be that most people fly between 6 and 15000 feet instead of the early 20's which they did over Europe = higher losses?

Regards,

Steven

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:18 pm
by Bradley7735
You should run some tests. I don't think pulling data out of AAR's is a good idea. You don't know how fatigued the bombers are (they seem to hit Rabaul from far away every turn). You don't know the exp of the defending fighters (they have been pretty successful for quite some time).

Crappy, tired, demoralized pilots coming in low altitude bombers would probably get creamed by expert, well rested pilots in a relatively good plane.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:20 pm
by freeboy
ok, Let me say that I am also no expert in either life history or blah blah.. enough said there..

In outr pbem spanning nearly the entire war, I found the MAIN determining factor is the ratio of fighters to bombers if unescorted.. the highter the ratio the higher the number downed and damaged. once I can field over 150 heavies, it is hard for the enemy to compoete, and if he can you know I am looking for a air base to know out... hope thathelps.. on a historical note I too was surprised when small numbers are involved.. but that only happened ealy and I think the "pilot" experience.. really the crew for a 17 had something to do with loses

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:25 pm
by Speedysteve
Ok i'll try and get some tests in and record the results. This is provided I get my Jap turn 1 done and my 2 turns of BTR done.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:33 pm
by Mr.Frag
Yep, test test test [;)]

As far as your comment about 17's actually breaking off, that only happens when they face serious firepower with crappy morale so you need to look into that.

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:43 pm
by Speedysteve
No problem at all Frag. I will do tests and let you know how it goes. I'm sure all will be ok though [:'(]

I will try to note numbers. Exp. Morale etc and try and save combat reports. (prob I have is no Internet at home can you believe it in this day and age! So i'll run tests at home and post reports from work.)

I'll try forts/libs/superforts against different targets at different heights against different opposition and several times.

Regards,

Steven

RE: Heavy Bomber Losses

Posted: Wed May 04, 2005 3:45 pm
by Mr.Frag
Alter the pattern of use too ...

ie: continuous, every other day, every 3rd day, etc