The Italian Job (2) - Comments from the Allies

[mc3744]

ok

This is my very first attempt at an AAR ever.
The reason why I'm trying is that I feel the need to counterbalance all the bad things the Gen.Hoepner is surely saying about me in his AAR [;)]

Another reason is to provide to whomever is interested in that AAR some info on what's going on on the other side.

I'm really not sure if I'll have the time to do this regularly and I'm not even sure how I'll do it.
I think of this AAR as a further explanation/an addendum to Gen.Hopener's one. There you have all the details, here some hindsight on the Allies.
Since I'm somehow late I'll start with a description of my strategy and of what I believe is going on in my esteemed opponent mind.

Please, please, please. If you read this and feel there isn't such a need let me know and spare me the effort.

From now on Gen.Hoepner will be so kind NOT TO READ [:D]

Thanks

[mc3744]

The opening moves of GH have been pretty ‘classic’. Not much unexpected there, with the exception of the nice touch of mining Baatan to get my outgoing ships. It was against me but I’ve actually appreciated the creativity.
Overall his invasion has been real smooth and perfectly organized. I don’t think he could have done much better than that.

I’ve been real lucky with PH strike, not one ship sunk. Although not one BB is undamaged, the best is >20 sys damage.
Air losses have been quite severe, but basically useless planes. Hence not much has happened.

Based on my knowledge of GH, I expect and I’ve been expected from the start the following directions of attack.

He’ll try again to wipe me away from China, this time he won’t succeed [;)]

Sooner or later he’ll go for India or, at least, for Ceylon.

He is already going (as expected) for Northern Australia - Darwin.

He’ll soon go for GiliGili and PortMoresby.

I’m not so sure about Central and South Pacific. He feels that’s overstretching. I’m very happy about it because the strategy I’d hate to face is a Pacific one. He may go however for Baker and Canton, at least.

Ok, what am I going to hold the tide?

Central Pacific
I’ve already unloaded the 24th division in Canton plus the 4th marine defense battalion.
The other CD battalions are en route for Palmyra and Johnston.
Mine laying activity is also under way. All Central Pacific bases will have a minimum of 400 mines by the end of January.

South Pacific
Reinforcements are on their way but it is still far from being secure, if he comes I’m toast.
I’m going to let him take PM and GiliGili. I won’t garrison those bases. When he comes they’ll fall.
He is very good at preparing huge invasions and I’m not going to be able to fortify PM enough to hold off a major invasion.

Australia
From day one I’ve sent 3 ENG, 2 INF brigades, one Cav. brigade and two divisions towards Darwin. They should reach it in a couple more weeks. By then it will probably be in his hands but ...

DEI
I’m preparing ‘Fortress Timor‘, I’ve been using every single PP to move all the Dutch units I could to Koepang. I’m now reaching the 250 aviation support points and the airfield is reaching size 5 (B-17‘s are already stationed there). He is not aware of my movements because he never spotted anything and he never tried to interfere. Thanks God!!
I have a constant flow of fuel, supplies, oil, resources and troops from Java to Koepang. If I can keep at it another couple of weeks I’ll have a VERY strong airbase just between his DEI bases and Darwin. I’m also strengthening Lautern to have a cross protection system.
With Timor supplied and built up Darwin and the Japanese units there will be almost isolated and, hopefully, easy prey.

Tomorrow more about Indo-China

[mc3744]

I forgot.

rrobertson, General Billy and Gregg, PLEASE DON'T READ THIS [:-]

[;)]

[String]

Fitting a division >here!< would be fun.. the length of the island is 10 miles from tip to the bottom..

[mc3744]

ORIGINAL: String

Fitting a division >here!< would be fun.. the length of the island is 10 miles from tip to the bottom..

It's nice [:D], but I must say that I don't get your point [&:]

[invernomuto]

Thread subscribed [&o]

[String]

ORIGINAL: mc3744

ORIGINAL: String

Fitting a division >here!< would be fun.. the length of the island is 10 miles from tip to the bottom..

It's nice [:D], but I must say that I don't get your point [&:]

Well what i'm saying is that it's a bit small for a division. .. Okay maybe one division can effectively defend it. But any more troops and every japanese shell or bomb is going to find someone to kill [:'(]

[mc3744]

ORIGINAL: invernomuto

Thread subscribed [&o]

Thanks [:)]

[mc3744]

Ok, now I get your point.

But I feel that one brigade or regiment wouldn't be enough.
With one division, CD and base force he really has to commit seriuosly ig he wants to get it.
And that would mean delaying someplace else.

[mc3744]

28th December

He has arrived, Darwin is being invaded. No big surprise there. I hope the PT boats will be able to inflict some casualties but I have no big hopes. I’ve split the TF in two smaller ones. I’m trying to catch the CV TF one hex out of Darwin.
I don’t entirely understand the invasion of Darwin[&:]. He will be now forced to keep a consistent garrison there if he wants to hold it. AND he’ll need to take care of Timor too, this will require to use up some 20%-40% of his available troops. Some in Northern Australia some to invade Timor. Of course if he succeed he’ll be unchallenged (almost) in Northern Australia, but he still has a long way to go.
I’m not very worried right now. We’ll see.

See Koepang base in the picture. 3 more ENG units already on their way.

CHINA
As expected, because it only makes sense, he is going for Ichang. That’s the weak spot. There’s no second line of defense. If Ichang falls Chungking is the next one and also all the other bases can be cut out.
Hence Ichang will be crucial for the survival of the whole China.
That is why every available unit is already en route towards Ichang. It’s now only a matter of time.
Will my units already stationed in Ichang hold long enough? Till reinforcement arrive? I’m optimistic, but ...

The good news is that his air force hasn’t got many big airfields available and he is feeling my pressure on Hangkow (Andrew Map Mod).
I have several B-17’s on the way through Java to Indo-China. I’m planning to inflict several losses on the ground and/or to shut down his main airfields.
If he backs off, I’ll start bombing HI, oil and resources.
With the 1.5 there are many more heavies available - LB-30 Liberators - and he is going to like them [:D].
In my experience however GH has proven to be a very tough opponent. Hence I believe that he’ll do his best to shut down MY airfields. I hope the heavies will prevail.

INDIA-BIRMANIA
I’m already retreating. Not much to do there. Just some delaying action.
The main positive thing is Akyab. I now have an excellent training field for my pilots - even for the short legged Hurricane’s and Chinese fighters - and I can retake it quite easily whenever I’ll need it. I never thought I would have been happy to loose a base, but actually I am. [:D]

[Blackwatch_it]

Could you tell a little more about the situation in DEI and SoPac? Who is in control of Rabaul? What DEI bases did GH capture?

[mc3744]

29th December ‘41

100.000 men have unloaded in Darwin ... WOW! [X(]

I’m really confounded. Obviously I’m not going to be able to retake Darwin (it will fall real soon) with such a powerful force stationed there.
At the same time however, he’ll need to keep that power there to hold Darwin. This should mean a slowdown someplace else. It’s not like in DEI where you can move in, wipe everything clear from opposition and then load again towards the next objective. He has to stay there. How is he going to manage that? 100.000 men already stuck in ‘41? I don’t get it.

The picture attached to show the situation in the Solomons and surrounding area. It is however still a very unstable situation.

More about DEI in the next post.

CHINA
I’m planning an air raid on Kaifeng. It’s 8 hexes from Chunking, hence I’ll bomb unescorted, but he seems to have lots of DB stationed there. And he is expecting me on Hankow. With some luck I may manage to inflict more losses on the ground than what I’ll loose in the air. On Hankow it’s been good, I’m looking for a double.

[Blackwatch_it]

100.000 men in Darwin mean that the japanese will be short of units in Malaya of PI. As for my experience as Japanese four divisions are needed to conquer Malaya and 4-5 divisions fo Luzon. 100.000 men in Darwin mean something like 4 divisione that won't be used elsewhere.

[mc3744]

He has indeed four full divisions, plus tons of other units: tanks, engineers, base forces, HQ.
He is here to stay. It may not be that bad after all. It may be the reason ha has slowed down in PI.

The fight is still very long. I need at least till the end of January to stabilize the situation in DEI, once the transfer of the Dutch units to Timor is complete (if I'll ever manage it), I'll be able to start relaxing a bit.

The air raid on Kaifeng as been moderately succesful. 8 planes destroyed on the ground vs. one of mine lost.
Next time I'll go for Hankow again.

[BLurking]

He's made a huge mistake, and made it early. If you can figure out where he's going next (probably West) and hang out to intercept - he's going to pay big time. Build up fortifications, set PPs, and get what you can to hold him up. This is a case where it looks ugly for the Allies early, but could be a disaster for the Japanese in the long term.
Don't make a mistake and overreact - that's the only thing that can make this a victory for him...

Best of luck.

[mc3744]

31st December, 1941

Darwin has fallen. No big news.
I think GH is an excellent player, hence I’m sure he has his good reasons for coming to Northern Australia and he must have some sensible plan.

I do however agree, to some extent, that this move my prove to my advantage in the medium term.

IMHO the main obstacle preventing the Allies from starting a counter-offensive in the early summer of ’42 is the utter lack of air cover. The Wildcat’s carrier based fighters are just not up to the task and the Warhawk’s don’t have the legs.
Hence you can’t protect any amphibious TF.
In this case however I won’t need any air protection or amphibious TF to regain Darwin. All I nee is some patience. The time it’ll take to travel from Adelaide up to the North: roughly 1,5 months.
I’ve therefore made up my mind for my future strategy.
1) Secure New Caledonia and Fiji. One division for Noumea and one more brigade in Fiji.
2) Let him take New Guinea, the road to Northern Australia is temporarely closed anyway.
3) Move every additional available LCU to Adelaide and from there to Northern Australia.
4) If the above works, my main direction for the counter offensive of ’43 will be DEI as opposed to the Solomons as I initially believed.
This way I might be able to trap some of his units as early as summer ’42.
It is obviously early but, so far, it looks good.

In the picture the situation in PI.

Thanks to all the readers for taking the time. Any suggestion will be of course welcome.

[Bliztk]

Don´t know, but I would let him have Northern Australia.

You know, here there is nothing interesting to die for. The only thing that you can do is lose units rushing to fight at unfavourable odds.

I would put some blockading units, and let the Japanese attack. I bet that in late-42 you will retake Northern Australia for free. He already committed 100,000 troops here. He must be weak in other spots.

Use this time to reinforce the chain between Hawaii and Noumea, and to send every air unit of South Pac, and SW Pac to Australia.

When bombers start pounding his ground units far away from base hexes (thus few CAP), he is going to regret his commitment to a zone that he can´t hold.

Allied bombers like B-17, B-26 and B25, plus Aussie Wellingtons can make the life of a Japanese Divisional miserable.

[Titanwarrior89]

Please continue with the reports. I would like too know where he is going with his OZ invasion. Interesting so far.[;)]

[mc3744]

I totally agree.

This is what I'll try to do.

[mc3744]

ORIGINAL: Titanwarrior89

Please continue with the reports. I would like too know where he is going with his OZ invasion. Interesting so far.[;)]

Thanks [:'(]