COMPLETED"THEY WERE EXPENDABLE". END GAME ANALYSIS
Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:05 pm
Bison Frontier and I began our scenario 15 campaign game on 10/31/04 under v1.3.
After 17 months of RL game play, 3 different Japanese commanders and successive upgrades to v1.4, v1.5, v1.6 and v1.795 we completed the game on 1/1/45 with a decisive Allied victory.
To summarize and simplify the entire campaign as much as possible, our game was decided by Allied air power....to simplify even more our game was decided by Allied land based air power. The one plane that allowed the Allies gain air superiority over Japan was the P-38G and the eventual crucible of victory were the 4 engine bombers. LCUs were needed to capture and hold bases. The US Navy was needed to transport the LCUs. There were 4 distinct phases to "THEY WERE EXPENDABLE":
1) JAPANESE EXPANSION: 12/41- 6/42
2) THE MEETING ENGAGEMENT...THE BATTLE FOR TARAWA: 7/42- 9/42
3) STALEMATE: 10/42- 1/43
4) ALLIED RECONQUEST: 2/43- 1/45
JAPANESE EXPANSION:
No surprises here. After hitting Pearl Harbor Japan quickly overran Malaya with overwhelming force. This was my only game out of over a half dozen PBEMs where Japan went into Malaya with great force and took Singapore before venturing into Burma. Consequently, this was the only game Ive played where Singapore has been captured(however this event did occur before the new river crossing rule was implemented).
The greatest Japanese surprise/gambit was the capture of Port Moresby in 12/41. This didnt affect the Allies as much as I thought that it would as I was able to supply and reinforce Darwin easily by the overland railroad. Later by 7/42 large Allied airfields at Cooktown and Thursday Island allowed massed heavy bomber attacks covered by P-40Es to shut down the airfield at Port Moresby permanently and it was a non-event until its recapture in 5/43.
Bison Frontier stacked all his CVs and CVLs into a "super KB" and sailed around the SRA like a giant "Black Hole" sucking in all Allied AC that dared to fly. In April 1942 alone over 400 Allied AC were destroyed by KB in the DEI and northern OZ. In fact, the P-40E losses were so great that the P-40E groups never recovered...their airgroups didnt ever reach full TOE again until the arrival of the P-40N in 1943.
4/22/42 saw the fall of both Clark Field and Soerabaja and by 5/42 Japan had secured all of the PI and the DEI.
The Allies would never again lose an LCU for the remainder of the war(except for 2nd USMC Division and 1st USMC Para Reg. due to the teleport/unit fragment bugs...LoL).
THE MEETING ENGAGEMENT: 7/42- 9/42
Unknown to both players, while I was building up the Allied positions in the Gilberts for a thrust into the Marshalls Bison Frontier was building up in the Marshalls for an offensive into the Gilberts. Consequently we had a "Meeting Engagement" off Tarawa between virtually the entire USN and IJN. The Allies had constructed major bases at Tarawa and Apamama but did not have the aviation engineers present to make both bases fully operational.
Japan invaded Tarawa in force in our version of Real Life Guadalcanal. Three major carrier engagements occurred here in which the USN lost over 600 carrier AC due to super CAP and fragmented naval airstrikes. Japan also lost virtually all of their pre-war pilots yet NOT one carrier was sunk. The US CVs limped back to port after one carrier battle with a TOTAL of 6 operational SBDs and TBDs.
As the air and naval battles raged the IJN lost 2 BBs, 3 CAs, 4 CLs and 37 DDs against Allied losses of 8 BBs, 6 CAs, 2 CLs, 30 DDs and 4 DMS. By the middle of August 1942 things looked grim for the 40,000 entrenched Marines and US Army troops on Tarawa as the Allies were out of carrier air and surface ships but by the slimmest of margins aviation regiments were landed at both Apamama and Tarawa enabling 600 medium and heavy bombers to be staged in. After several days of land based air attacks and the return of the USN CVs what was left of the IJN limped back towards Truk by 8/27/42.
Japan had now lost the initiative and would never again launch an offensive for the rest of the war. The last IJA troops were mopped up on Tarawa by mid September 1942.
STALEMATE: 10/42- 1/43
Virtually all surviving IJN BBs had to go back to Japan with a MINIMUM of at least 30 bomb hits per BB. IJN CVs and USN CVs had to go back to home ports to conduct maintenance repairs, upgrade and train new naval pilots. The Allies now had overwhelming medium and heavy bomber superiority in both the central Pacific and northern Australia/southern DEI but no long range fighters.
The Allies attempted to stage long range counterair bomber strikes from the Gilberts into the Marshalls and from OZ/Timor/Kai Is. into the southern DEI but losses soon became prohibitive. The arrival of the first P-38G groups did not turn the tables against massed A6M2s, A6M3s and Tonys(NOTE: This was before v1.6 and heavy bombers couldnt defend very well against massed A6M2s. After v 1.6 heavy bombers can fire VERY effectively against A6M2s). A decision was made to suspend long range bombing attacks until masses of P-38Gs could be used against the masses of Japanese fighters. No further opposed offensive operations would be possible into the Marshalls or NW New Guinea/DEI until the Allies could achieve total air superiority. An eerie stalemate reached across the entire PTO.
ALLIED RECONQUEST: 2/43-1/45
On 1/13/43, the USN invaded unoccupied Mili to gain an advanced airfield for the upcoming Marshall Islands opearations. KB raced across the Pacific to engage the USN fleet and the 4th great carrier battle of the war occurred. Japan lost 241 AC(190 Kates) with USN losses of 21 F4F-4s. IJN airpower is broken again and Bison Frontier resigns from the game due to work considerations. Freeboy becomes the new Japanese commander.
By late 1/43 the Allies had massed 400 P-38Gs split between SOPAC(Gilberts) and SWPAC(Timor/OZ/Kai Is.). Operation Rolling Thunder, an attempt to gain air superiority across the PTO was planned to commence on 2/1/43 with 400 P-38s, 250 mediums, 500 heavy bombers and assorted P-40Es, Kittyhawks and tac bombers.
2/1/43- 2/6/43 Operation Rolling Thunder
On the first day of Operation Rolling Thunder Japan loses 172 Tonys, 96 A6M3as and 17 Tojos as SOPAC hits Maloelap, SWPAC hits Amboina and SEAC hits Mandalay and Pagan. On the 2nd day the Allied bombing attacks become virtual "milk runs" and Japan loses 539 AC in 2 days vs 143 Allied. By the 5th day SOPAC switches targets to Kwajalein while SWPAC targets Kendari. By 2/6/43 the operation is complete as Japan loses 923 AC vs Allied losses of 195 AC. The back of Japanese land based aviation is now broken and Allied offensives can begin simultaneously in the Marshalls, New Guinea and Burma.
Belphegor replaces Freeboy as the Japanese commander.
SOPAC overruns Marshall Islands by 2/21/43. SOPAC redeploys to Luganville and overruns the Solomons from 3/43-8/1/43.
SWPAC overruns New Guinea from 2/43-10/27/43.
SEAC overruns Burma/Thailand/Malaya/Singapore/Indochina from 8/43-1/44.
SOPAC had trouble capturing Eniwetok solely with CV air so the decision is made to attack the Marianas from the south instead of the east so land based air could be used.
SWPAC/SOPAC launch an offensive from northern New Guinea backed by heavy bombers to capture Woleia, Ulithi and Palau 11/43-1/44
Heavy bombers based at Ulithi and Palau support CENTPAC offensive to capture the Marianas 3/44- 8/44. 230 Kamikaze planes are shot down by 15 CVEs covering the invasion force at Guam. In combination with endless kamikaze attacks, 4 IJN BBs sortie to cover a massive reinforcement operation at Tinian and Saipan. Fast Carrier TF 58 races to the northern Marianas and all 4 IJN BBs eventually sink includding BB Yamato and BB Musashi along with 60 plus transports. CENTPAC lands 340,000 troops on Saipan and suffers 100,000 casualties in a battle that lasts 2 months.
Concurrently, heavy bombers at Ulithi and Palau support SWPAC invasion of Mindanao 5/44-7/44.
8/10/44....SAC launched first firebombing of Tokyo from bases at Saipan and Tinian.
Heavy bombers based in the southern and central PI support SWPAC invasion of Luzon 9/44-end of war.
Heavy bombers in the Marianas support CENTPAC invasion of Iwo Jima 10/44-11/44. The 5th and largest carrier battle of the war occurs here in the Naval Battle of Iwo Jima. 14 USN CVs, 9 USN CVLs, 3 RN CVs and 1 RN CVL repel the entire KB losing 19 Hellsats to 264 Japanese AC. Again no CVs are sunk.
11/44 Iwo Jima based fighters escort strategic bombers over Japan.
CENTPAC invades Okinawa with heavy bomber support from the Marianas 12/44-end of war.
Here is a screenshot with all the point totals on 1/1/45:
After 17 months of RL game play, 3 different Japanese commanders and successive upgrades to v1.4, v1.5, v1.6 and v1.795 we completed the game on 1/1/45 with a decisive Allied victory.
To summarize and simplify the entire campaign as much as possible, our game was decided by Allied air power....to simplify even more our game was decided by Allied land based air power. The one plane that allowed the Allies gain air superiority over Japan was the P-38G and the eventual crucible of victory were the 4 engine bombers. LCUs were needed to capture and hold bases. The US Navy was needed to transport the LCUs. There were 4 distinct phases to "THEY WERE EXPENDABLE":
1) JAPANESE EXPANSION: 12/41- 6/42
2) THE MEETING ENGAGEMENT...THE BATTLE FOR TARAWA: 7/42- 9/42
3) STALEMATE: 10/42- 1/43
4) ALLIED RECONQUEST: 2/43- 1/45
JAPANESE EXPANSION:
No surprises here. After hitting Pearl Harbor Japan quickly overran Malaya with overwhelming force. This was my only game out of over a half dozen PBEMs where Japan went into Malaya with great force and took Singapore before venturing into Burma. Consequently, this was the only game Ive played where Singapore has been captured(however this event did occur before the new river crossing rule was implemented).
The greatest Japanese surprise/gambit was the capture of Port Moresby in 12/41. This didnt affect the Allies as much as I thought that it would as I was able to supply and reinforce Darwin easily by the overland railroad. Later by 7/42 large Allied airfields at Cooktown and Thursday Island allowed massed heavy bomber attacks covered by P-40Es to shut down the airfield at Port Moresby permanently and it was a non-event until its recapture in 5/43.
Bison Frontier stacked all his CVs and CVLs into a "super KB" and sailed around the SRA like a giant "Black Hole" sucking in all Allied AC that dared to fly. In April 1942 alone over 400 Allied AC were destroyed by KB in the DEI and northern OZ. In fact, the P-40E losses were so great that the P-40E groups never recovered...their airgroups didnt ever reach full TOE again until the arrival of the P-40N in 1943.
4/22/42 saw the fall of both Clark Field and Soerabaja and by 5/42 Japan had secured all of the PI and the DEI.
The Allies would never again lose an LCU for the remainder of the war(except for 2nd USMC Division and 1st USMC Para Reg. due to the teleport/unit fragment bugs...LoL).
THE MEETING ENGAGEMENT: 7/42- 9/42
Unknown to both players, while I was building up the Allied positions in the Gilberts for a thrust into the Marshalls Bison Frontier was building up in the Marshalls for an offensive into the Gilberts. Consequently we had a "Meeting Engagement" off Tarawa between virtually the entire USN and IJN. The Allies had constructed major bases at Tarawa and Apamama but did not have the aviation engineers present to make both bases fully operational.
Japan invaded Tarawa in force in our version of Real Life Guadalcanal. Three major carrier engagements occurred here in which the USN lost over 600 carrier AC due to super CAP and fragmented naval airstrikes. Japan also lost virtually all of their pre-war pilots yet NOT one carrier was sunk. The US CVs limped back to port after one carrier battle with a TOTAL of 6 operational SBDs and TBDs.
As the air and naval battles raged the IJN lost 2 BBs, 3 CAs, 4 CLs and 37 DDs against Allied losses of 8 BBs, 6 CAs, 2 CLs, 30 DDs and 4 DMS. By the middle of August 1942 things looked grim for the 40,000 entrenched Marines and US Army troops on Tarawa as the Allies were out of carrier air and surface ships but by the slimmest of margins aviation regiments were landed at both Apamama and Tarawa enabling 600 medium and heavy bombers to be staged in. After several days of land based air attacks and the return of the USN CVs what was left of the IJN limped back towards Truk by 8/27/42.
Japan had now lost the initiative and would never again launch an offensive for the rest of the war. The last IJA troops were mopped up on Tarawa by mid September 1942.
STALEMATE: 10/42- 1/43
Virtually all surviving IJN BBs had to go back to Japan with a MINIMUM of at least 30 bomb hits per BB. IJN CVs and USN CVs had to go back to home ports to conduct maintenance repairs, upgrade and train new naval pilots. The Allies now had overwhelming medium and heavy bomber superiority in both the central Pacific and northern Australia/southern DEI but no long range fighters.
The Allies attempted to stage long range counterair bomber strikes from the Gilberts into the Marshalls and from OZ/Timor/Kai Is. into the southern DEI but losses soon became prohibitive. The arrival of the first P-38G groups did not turn the tables against massed A6M2s, A6M3s and Tonys(NOTE: This was before v1.6 and heavy bombers couldnt defend very well against massed A6M2s. After v 1.6 heavy bombers can fire VERY effectively against A6M2s). A decision was made to suspend long range bombing attacks until masses of P-38Gs could be used against the masses of Japanese fighters. No further opposed offensive operations would be possible into the Marshalls or NW New Guinea/DEI until the Allies could achieve total air superiority. An eerie stalemate reached across the entire PTO.
ALLIED RECONQUEST: 2/43-1/45
On 1/13/43, the USN invaded unoccupied Mili to gain an advanced airfield for the upcoming Marshall Islands opearations. KB raced across the Pacific to engage the USN fleet and the 4th great carrier battle of the war occurred. Japan lost 241 AC(190 Kates) with USN losses of 21 F4F-4s. IJN airpower is broken again and Bison Frontier resigns from the game due to work considerations. Freeboy becomes the new Japanese commander.
By late 1/43 the Allies had massed 400 P-38Gs split between SOPAC(Gilberts) and SWPAC(Timor/OZ/Kai Is.). Operation Rolling Thunder, an attempt to gain air superiority across the PTO was planned to commence on 2/1/43 with 400 P-38s, 250 mediums, 500 heavy bombers and assorted P-40Es, Kittyhawks and tac bombers.
2/1/43- 2/6/43 Operation Rolling Thunder
On the first day of Operation Rolling Thunder Japan loses 172 Tonys, 96 A6M3as and 17 Tojos as SOPAC hits Maloelap, SWPAC hits Amboina and SEAC hits Mandalay and Pagan. On the 2nd day the Allied bombing attacks become virtual "milk runs" and Japan loses 539 AC in 2 days vs 143 Allied. By the 5th day SOPAC switches targets to Kwajalein while SWPAC targets Kendari. By 2/6/43 the operation is complete as Japan loses 923 AC vs Allied losses of 195 AC. The back of Japanese land based aviation is now broken and Allied offensives can begin simultaneously in the Marshalls, New Guinea and Burma.
Belphegor replaces Freeboy as the Japanese commander.
SOPAC overruns Marshall Islands by 2/21/43. SOPAC redeploys to Luganville and overruns the Solomons from 3/43-8/1/43.
SWPAC overruns New Guinea from 2/43-10/27/43.
SEAC overruns Burma/Thailand/Malaya/Singapore/Indochina from 8/43-1/44.
SOPAC had trouble capturing Eniwetok solely with CV air so the decision is made to attack the Marianas from the south instead of the east so land based air could be used.
SWPAC/SOPAC launch an offensive from northern New Guinea backed by heavy bombers to capture Woleia, Ulithi and Palau 11/43-1/44
Heavy bombers based at Ulithi and Palau support CENTPAC offensive to capture the Marianas 3/44- 8/44. 230 Kamikaze planes are shot down by 15 CVEs covering the invasion force at Guam. In combination with endless kamikaze attacks, 4 IJN BBs sortie to cover a massive reinforcement operation at Tinian and Saipan. Fast Carrier TF 58 races to the northern Marianas and all 4 IJN BBs eventually sink includding BB Yamato and BB Musashi along with 60 plus transports. CENTPAC lands 340,000 troops on Saipan and suffers 100,000 casualties in a battle that lasts 2 months.
Concurrently, heavy bombers at Ulithi and Palau support SWPAC invasion of Mindanao 5/44-7/44.
8/10/44....SAC launched first firebombing of Tokyo from bases at Saipan and Tinian.
Heavy bombers based in the southern and central PI support SWPAC invasion of Luzon 9/44-end of war.
Heavy bombers in the Marianas support CENTPAC invasion of Iwo Jima 10/44-11/44. The 5th and largest carrier battle of the war occurs here in the Naval Battle of Iwo Jima. 14 USN CVs, 9 USN CVLs, 3 RN CVs and 1 RN CVL repel the entire KB losing 19 Hellsats to 264 Japanese AC. Again no CVs are sunk.
11/44 Iwo Jima based fighters escort strategic bombers over Japan.
CENTPAC invades Okinawa with heavy bomber support from the Marianas 12/44-end of war.
Here is a screenshot with all the point totals on 1/1/45:
