RHS EOS Nemo (J) vs Aztez (A). Not for Aztez.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:38 am
Welcome to this AAR which of a game Aztez has challenged me to using RHS. We have decided to play RHS EOS (Scenario 65) which differs from stock in the following ways:
1. Japan is assumed to have some inkling that it is getting into a war in which quantity will be important and has, consequently, greatly expanded its pilot training programmes. I get 150 IJA pilots ( exp 60) monthly and 108 IJN pilots ( experience 70) monthly.
2. Several CS conversions to CVLs are assumed to have already occurred prior to the commencement of the game.
3. Massive changes to the air to air model and plane data. E.g. Nell can carry torps 11 hexes, Zeroes have a maximum range of 10 hexes, many other fighters have their ranges massively reduced ( Oscar I can fly a max of 3 hexes and has negligible ferry qualities). There is little chance of achieving kills in A2A combat beyond a range of 1. This tends to mean that many of the kill opportunities we see in stock A2A are "lost" and tends to have a lot more enemy bombers leaking through CAP. In my test runs of the first 4 or 5 days of the war I think I've only managed to stop an enemy airstrike entirely 2 or 3 times. Several times, when testing sub-optimal approaches to PH, I've actually lost a couple of CVs to SBDs and level bombers which broke through KB's CAP. All in all A2A combat is considerably less lethal with more planes tending to survive on both sides and a greater relative vulnerability of carriers vs airfields. Uebercap is a thing of the past. Also, since airplane durability seems to be roughly half of stock it means that a lot more planes tend to get destroyed by FlAK or have their attack runs disrupted. This makes port attacks and low-level ueber-strikes significantly less effective and significantly more costly which is, from my reading of the history, an improvement over stock.
4. China is a bit of a disaster for the IJA. Basically Japan can free up about 2,500 AV in china once garrison requirements and blocking forces are accounted for. Of this 2,500 AV some 1,500 is accounted for by Burma and Southern Area Army formations so, really, Japan has little force available for major offensives especially when one takes into account the fact that the Chinese can mass over 33,000 AV if allowed to build to full strength. Add in the fact that the Chinese now have guerilla corps which are blocking many of my LOCs and you can see things are going to be tough in China. My plan may surprise some and will be outlined a little later.
5. Australia starts off weakly in terms of resources BUT has the potential to be a major source of resources for Japanese forces. E.g I think Noumea starts off with 600 resources per turn BUT if fully repaired it can produce 1800 tons of resources per turn and 2,250 tons of supply per turn. Several other bases in Australia are in a similar situation. So, if I can mount Australian operations I can gain access to massive amounts of HI and resources so long as I am willing to invest the supply necessary to effect repairs.
6. We are using the extended map so there is no more teleportation into Karachi. There is teleportation into Aden but from there things have to be shipped into Karachi ( which means their arrival is subject to counter and, thus, entirely fair). Aden is off limits to invasion.
7. The Soviet Union is very strong. Aztez wanted the Soviet Union to be active from Day 1 but I pointed out that it was a bit much to have Japan actively at war with everyone from the 1st day, especially when Japan didn't have the interceptors necessary to fight off strategic B-17 raids from Vladivostok. I don't particularly see any need for the Soviet Union to participate but Aztez is eager for it to so in the interests of more fully testing the RHS mod we have agreed that the Soviet Union will be free to attack Japan from 1st January 1943. That will, at least, give the Japanese time to achieve stable fronts in other areas, get a few fighters comparable to the Yaks and MiGs etc.
8. The DEI is loaded with resources and oil to a far greater extent than in stock. Palembang and Balikpapan, for example, have far more oil than in stock and this should help support a large Japanese war economy IF they can be taken intact or speedily repaired.
9. Conversely the Japanese starting economy is pretty messed up. Hordes of engine types which aren't required are being produced. There's a massive excess of Nakajimas for the fighters but a serious lack of Hitachis, Ishikawajimas and Mitsubishis for the bombers and recon planes. So, in short, massive expansion of some areas and the almost complete cessation of production in others is going to be required.
10. Initial production rates for the Sallys, Kates, Vals and Bettys my forces require basically tops out at 30 of each type per month. Since this production is usually concentrated in a single factory it will also be slow to increase. I'm making a respectable number of Zeroes ( 100 or so a month) and a small number of Nates and Oscars ( which must be kept in production for a little while until I can begin production of the Me-109E4 Taifun and increase A6M2 production significantly.
11. Transport availability... This is the real achilles heel. I simply don't have either enough shipping or the shipping in the right places. Even when I do have ships available all too often they are massive 9000 ton APs or 18,000 ton AKs which are completely unsuited to opposed amphibious landings ( too much of the landing force is concentrated in each ship, it takes an age for the troops to unload from such massive ships allowing enemy surface raiders, airstrikes and submarine strikes ample time to hit the ships and the amount of disablements a division will sustain when trying to unload over 4 or 5 days is massive.). I have no choice but to go with what I have initially but I am going to task-organise my 2nd wave of invasions. My current concept is to either fly in or FT in a force to take an out of the way base and then offload my massive transports in these newly friendly bases a day or two later. I also plan to hoard as many of my smaller transports ( 1 to 2,000 tonners) for opposed landings against heavily defended enemy bases such as Pearl Harbour and some of the other American bases.
12. Political points. With 1,000 political points becoming available every day for Japan ( and 2,000 for the US) both sides should have a great deal of freedom as to how to deploy their forces. I believe that the combination of points 11 and 12 will mean that Japan will be able to mount strong operations for a significant time BUT will find itself unable to mount more than 2 major operations or 1 major and 2 minor operations at the one time.
From the Allied point of view most players used to stock will bemoan the lack of bomber and fighter replacement rates although, to be fair, one has to remember that Allied reinforcements appear with planes which do not come from the Allied replacement pool so any talk of a lack of bombers or fighters must take into account reinforcing fighter and bomber squadrons to have any meaning. This lack of replacements is also, to the best of my knowledge, more historical than stock, as is the lack of Japanese transports and the very difficult situation in China. From what I can see the Allied player is going to have to get himself out of the habit of fighting a forward defence unless he is particularly crafty and will have to conduct a fighting withdrawal at light contact. Do I expect Aztez to do that? No, he's far too aggressive for that from what I've read in his AARs. He is also a good player and really crucified his Japanese opponent in the AAR he has in 1944 now BUT, crucially, I think it is going to take him longer to adapt to the realities of RHS than it will take me. He'll adapt by the end of December 41 for sure but, if properly handled, he won't have enough of a force to adapt with by that time.
Plan:
In my initial AAR as Japan much was made of taking bases on Day 1 and how this accelerated Japanese operations in a way that taking them 3 or 4 days later ( the time taken for a troop convoy to transit in from outside of PBY range) would not have done. I, obviously, reject this as nonsense and toned down the 1st turn invasions significantly such that this could be demonstrated. 1st turn invasions occurred in historical areas ( Phillipines, DEI, Malaysia), those areas in which there was no Allied patrol cover ( Tulagi, Palmyra), areas which were accessible from transports sprinting in from the position of KB the day before the PH strike and suchlike.
1. Aerial Plan:
Manilla, Clark Field, Singapore and Pearl Harbour will all be hit with airfield attacks on December 7th. PH will be hit by every Val in KB, only the Kates will be tasked with Port Attacks, while the other airfields will be hit by naval bombers and Sallys. I have only 4 Zero Daitai available to me. One is crated up on a ship on its way to Johnston Island, 2 more are dedicated to the Phillipines and 1 will provide aerial cover to Johore Bahru once it falls to my forces. So, as you can see, my force of effective fighters is very limited but by tasking them in this way I expect Aztez to vastly over-estimate my strength. What I want him to see is hordes of naval bombers and Sallys hitting his main airbases while entire Zero Daitai fly daily sweeps over those same bases. If I met that sort of resistance I think I might think the enemy have overwhelming numbers also whereas, in fact, the enemy would be outnumbered ( although, admittedly, having excellent quality pilots and planes).
2. Ground Plan:
Only the north-eastern and Canton pockets in China are either essential enough or strong enough to be held by Japanese forces. Elsewhere my forces will be evacuated by ship or march overland to link up with friendly forces while I still maintain control over the roads. I will attempt to draw Chinese forces down on myself in the north and east and then, at a later time, once DEI, India , Hawaii and New Zealand are taken care of I will launch an extraordinary ( in the Soviet doctrinal sense) operation into the operative depth of China and unhinge the entire front in an effort to end meaningful resistance there in 3 to 4 months.
Soviet Union: I won't activate this until I have China cleared so, essentially, the Soviet Union will probably declare war on 1st January 1943.
Pacific: On day 1 I intend to land at Guam, Wake, Rabaul, Kavieng, Palmyra, French Frigate Shoals and the little atoll west of it. The landing at French Frigate Shoals is merely bait to draw US CVs into range. On Day 2 my CVs will race into strike range of any US CVs which decide to finish off the two transports assigned to this sacrificial mission. One other thing the FFS landing will allow is the basing of Mavis patrols within range of PH as I intend to catch the Allied ships when they try to escape.
Malaysia: Since I'm limiting myself so much in other areas and have accepted a number of what I think are questionable house rules ( SOviet activation on 1st January 1943, being forbidden to shock attack and pursue... although I have pointed out that this is open to exploitation by the expedient of simply setting a BF to enter a hex every turn. That way 3 or 4 BFs could rotate into and out of a hex containing 200,000 men and cancel their movement orders every turn. I have told Jari about this and he seems willing to not exploit this mechanic but I've told him that if it does happen repeatedly I will shock attack + pursue to end that exploit... Hopefully it won't be a problem. We'll find out soon enough at Johore Bahru. ) I am landing at Johore Bahru. I think it is tatically risky but also rewarding and so long as no BS happens with units entering the hex from the north, being attacked and then retreating into Singapore ( while cancelling all my movement orders every turn) it should work out fine. Aztez also insisted on a house rule that Singapore be taken before I could move on India. I compromised by suggesting that Singapore only had to be neutralised before moving on India. The landing at Johore Bahru is an attempt to take Singapore quickly and open the road to India.
Burma: Nothing much will happen here. Paratroops will take Victoria Point. I will then fly in aviation support and naval bombers and prevent evacuation via Rangoon. None of my troops will make for Burma via trails or paths. Instead I will either bypass it or land a small contingent to take Rangoon by sea as my Indian invasion convoy passes.
India: I will advance on India under cover of my 4 CVEs and 2 CVLs in the DEI region as soon as possible. Once the British forces in Malaysia are wiped out I will move onto India with them. Java and Sumatra will be attacked by the units which take Borneo and Sulawesi in the initial rush. These forces are, again, quite weak but will gain what they must through a rapid rate of operations
DEI: Amboina, Kendari, Balikpapan, Kuching and Brunei will be taken initially. Troops will then move on Sumatra and, later, Java. I will do what I can to temporally and geographically split the Allied defenders. It is quite possible that India will fall before Java is pacified if resistance in Java is particularly spirited. I think this would make an interesting operational variant and it amuses me to come up with a plan which allows for this variant.
Phillipines: Forces will land at Jolo and Cagayan in order to base aerial forces to interdict shipping fleeing from the Phillipines. Depending on the reaction of the Phillipine forces on Mindanao my forces will either root the Phillipinos out or abandon Mindanao once the shipping has escaped.
Aleutians: Everything up to Cold Harbour will be taken in the first week. The invasion forces here will gather off-shore under cover of some sea-based airpower and then make their run-ins on the 8th and 9th December.
3. Naval Plan:
4 x CVEs will launch a B4Y strike on Repulse in the waters around Singapore while KB hits Pearl Harbour. In my testing I've found that the results of a KB strike are, now, quite disappointing. It would appear that the drop in durability increases losses massively and means that the survivors are so rattled they often miss. Still, I will make the strike so that it does some damage and fulfills expectations. I will then race west into the arms of 1 to 2 American carriers and after, hopefully, winning that carrier battle will hang around out of range of PH until my C3Ns ( a recon variant of the Kate with an extended range of TEN hexes ) see BBs and CAs leaving PH. Any remaining US carriers will be forced to thread a line between my carriers ( which will try to move so that any US CV dash into PH gets them slaughtered) and Bettys operating out of Palmyra. So, the US CVs will move east south of the Hawaiian Islands ( and I have over a dozen seaplane tenders and seaplane-carrying armed merchant cruisers in this area precisely for the purpose of tracking these US CV movements and allowing me to establish their pattern of movement so that I can take them out at the appropriate time and place. I expect to lose several of these AMCs and AVs, especially as I'll use them as bait to draw the US CV airstrikes onto themselves instead of my irreplaceable carriers, but the cost will be worth it if I can get rid of these two US CVs. I also want to clear out as many CAs and BBs as possible since I do not want them getting loose amongst my invasion convoys when I begin landing at the Hawaiian islands in the latter half of December and throughout January.
Once PH is isolated I can bomb it back into the stone age and use it as a lure to Allied resupply and reinforcement/evacuation forces. With a little luck it may prove possible to get Aztez to throw more formations away in an effort to salvage the unsalvageable.
In the DEI etc I will just be quite conservative and push the Allied fleet away from Singapore and Palembang in order to allow landings in these areas. Once this has been accomplished the DEI Battleline will begin preparing for operations against India. The key is to move quickly against India while minimal forces can still achieve decisive results. This means that I want to have Betty bases interdicting SLOCs from Aden by the end of January 1942.
Tactical/Technical Analysis:
Well, the most important thing from a naval shipbuilding point of view is that the economy isn't sufficiently developed to handle a major shipbuilding programme ( that will have to be dealt with) but leaving that aside my shipbuilding will concentrate on those naval forces most distant at this time. My aim is to bring my entire carrier fleet to completion by the middle of 1943... hopefully in time to participate in foiling any enemy attempt to retake the Hawaiin Islands. All other naval shipbuilding programmes are subjugated to this requirement. Currently naval shipbuilding is at 1300 per day. I hope to get this up to 2200 per day by the middle of 1942 at which time I should have enough capacity to produce everything I need while keeping the carriers accelerated.
The most important airplanes in my arsenal are, in order,:
1. C3N1
This reconnaissance plane gives my carriers the ability to spot American TFs 10 hexes away. Since carriers are the decisive arm in the Pacific and intelligence superiority multiplies the lethality of that arm many times over the C3N1 should prove decisive. My plan to spot BBs escaping from PH would also be significantly more likely to fail without the C3N1. 30+ C3N1s flying from the pre-selected hexes just east of FFS can be relied upon to easily spot any damaged American BB seeking to escape. Once spotted it will be an easy task to calculate its likely path and intercept.
2. Emily.
Does for land bases what the C3N1 does for carriers.
3. Me-109E4.
A fighter with an armour rating of 1 in January 1942 will save innumerable IJA pilots' lives and will help me eke out maximum advantage from my pilot replacements. Unfortunately the range 2 normal, 3 extended makes the Me-109E4 Taifun suitably only for point defence but in that role it will still perform a vital service.
4. Zero.
The Zeroes long range is essential in decreasing the attrition of my bomber crews and helping minimise the draw-down in pilot replacements and maximise the consolidation of experienced aircrew.
5. Bettys.
Long-range torpedo-bomber which will prove essential for the defence of the Pacific Islands.
6. Sallys & Helens:
Minimise attrition of IJA pilot pools due to the presence of armour.
9. G5N & Emily transport.
With a solid back-bone of long-range, high capacity transports capable of operating from both developed and undeveloped bases my forces will gain a flexibility often missing from Japanese forces.
So, all in all a pretty simple plan. Hit PH, bait a CV trap and then fake a withdrawal from PH into position to spring that trap. Once the trap is sprung hand around until the C3Ns spot BBs and then move in in a methodical manner and hunt down the cripples. Once this is done move in on Hawaii itself. Destroy the Allied air force in the Phillipines and establish a temporary base in Mindanao. Intrerdict those ships that attempt to flee and move into Java and Sumatra with the Borneo/Sulawesi invasion forces. Interdict Northern Australia via paraborne troops and flown in aviation support.
Take Singapore by coup de main before rolling up the Malaysian peninsula. Isolate Burma. Once Malaysian operations are done move onto India ASAP. Evacuate much of China and concentrate on holding what is possible. Mop up the rear areas while waiting for operations in other theatres to finish.
Overall I think that RHS does a good job of slowing the initial Japanese advance. I only have the strength to conduct about 2/3rd of the invasions I might have done under stock. I have chosen to go into Aleutians on the cheap ( 1 Regiment but mostly just engineer Bns and BFs), the Pacific with 2 Divisions, the DEI with 3 Brigades and some SNLFs and Malaysia with 5 Divisions. I just didn't have the transport to hit the Phillipines or PH with sufficiently large, direct invasions or I would have. So the lack of transport will slow my operations in the early months. I have compensated for this by paring down my operations to just the most essential and then trying to do them with smaller forces more quickly than is normal. My gamble is that smaller forces 2 to 3 months earlier can succeed where larger forces fail. If I'm wrong my war economy will completely collapse by mid-42. I think its a gamble worth taking and, at the very least, it bucks the conventional wisdom and promises some rarely seen and interesting operational options, both of which are things I enjoy.
P.s. I should mention that apart from Johore Bahru I've mentioned every base at which I'm landing to Aztez and offered to redo the turn if, after viewing the turn 1 landings, he considers any landing to be a breach of the reasonableness we both agreed to in order to moderate the pace of the Japanese advance ( which I happen to think is just a silly Chimera many Allied players hide behind... It is entirely possible, in stock, to slow the Japanese pace of expansion by fighting hard and inflicting loss, trying to moderate it through rules is questionable and, also, will tend to fail... as I intend to show in this AAR.).
1. Japan is assumed to have some inkling that it is getting into a war in which quantity will be important and has, consequently, greatly expanded its pilot training programmes. I get 150 IJA pilots ( exp 60) monthly and 108 IJN pilots ( experience 70) monthly.
2. Several CS conversions to CVLs are assumed to have already occurred prior to the commencement of the game.
3. Massive changes to the air to air model and plane data. E.g. Nell can carry torps 11 hexes, Zeroes have a maximum range of 10 hexes, many other fighters have their ranges massively reduced ( Oscar I can fly a max of 3 hexes and has negligible ferry qualities). There is little chance of achieving kills in A2A combat beyond a range of 1. This tends to mean that many of the kill opportunities we see in stock A2A are "lost" and tends to have a lot more enemy bombers leaking through CAP. In my test runs of the first 4 or 5 days of the war I think I've only managed to stop an enemy airstrike entirely 2 or 3 times. Several times, when testing sub-optimal approaches to PH, I've actually lost a couple of CVs to SBDs and level bombers which broke through KB's CAP. All in all A2A combat is considerably less lethal with more planes tending to survive on both sides and a greater relative vulnerability of carriers vs airfields. Uebercap is a thing of the past. Also, since airplane durability seems to be roughly half of stock it means that a lot more planes tend to get destroyed by FlAK or have their attack runs disrupted. This makes port attacks and low-level ueber-strikes significantly less effective and significantly more costly which is, from my reading of the history, an improvement over stock.
4. China is a bit of a disaster for the IJA. Basically Japan can free up about 2,500 AV in china once garrison requirements and blocking forces are accounted for. Of this 2,500 AV some 1,500 is accounted for by Burma and Southern Area Army formations so, really, Japan has little force available for major offensives especially when one takes into account the fact that the Chinese can mass over 33,000 AV if allowed to build to full strength. Add in the fact that the Chinese now have guerilla corps which are blocking many of my LOCs and you can see things are going to be tough in China. My plan may surprise some and will be outlined a little later.
5. Australia starts off weakly in terms of resources BUT has the potential to be a major source of resources for Japanese forces. E.g I think Noumea starts off with 600 resources per turn BUT if fully repaired it can produce 1800 tons of resources per turn and 2,250 tons of supply per turn. Several other bases in Australia are in a similar situation. So, if I can mount Australian operations I can gain access to massive amounts of HI and resources so long as I am willing to invest the supply necessary to effect repairs.
6. We are using the extended map so there is no more teleportation into Karachi. There is teleportation into Aden but from there things have to be shipped into Karachi ( which means their arrival is subject to counter and, thus, entirely fair). Aden is off limits to invasion.
7. The Soviet Union is very strong. Aztez wanted the Soviet Union to be active from Day 1 but I pointed out that it was a bit much to have Japan actively at war with everyone from the 1st day, especially when Japan didn't have the interceptors necessary to fight off strategic B-17 raids from Vladivostok. I don't particularly see any need for the Soviet Union to participate but Aztez is eager for it to so in the interests of more fully testing the RHS mod we have agreed that the Soviet Union will be free to attack Japan from 1st January 1943. That will, at least, give the Japanese time to achieve stable fronts in other areas, get a few fighters comparable to the Yaks and MiGs etc.
8. The DEI is loaded with resources and oil to a far greater extent than in stock. Palembang and Balikpapan, for example, have far more oil than in stock and this should help support a large Japanese war economy IF they can be taken intact or speedily repaired.
9. Conversely the Japanese starting economy is pretty messed up. Hordes of engine types which aren't required are being produced. There's a massive excess of Nakajimas for the fighters but a serious lack of Hitachis, Ishikawajimas and Mitsubishis for the bombers and recon planes. So, in short, massive expansion of some areas and the almost complete cessation of production in others is going to be required.
10. Initial production rates for the Sallys, Kates, Vals and Bettys my forces require basically tops out at 30 of each type per month. Since this production is usually concentrated in a single factory it will also be slow to increase. I'm making a respectable number of Zeroes ( 100 or so a month) and a small number of Nates and Oscars ( which must be kept in production for a little while until I can begin production of the Me-109E4 Taifun and increase A6M2 production significantly.
11. Transport availability... This is the real achilles heel. I simply don't have either enough shipping or the shipping in the right places. Even when I do have ships available all too often they are massive 9000 ton APs or 18,000 ton AKs which are completely unsuited to opposed amphibious landings ( too much of the landing force is concentrated in each ship, it takes an age for the troops to unload from such massive ships allowing enemy surface raiders, airstrikes and submarine strikes ample time to hit the ships and the amount of disablements a division will sustain when trying to unload over 4 or 5 days is massive.). I have no choice but to go with what I have initially but I am going to task-organise my 2nd wave of invasions. My current concept is to either fly in or FT in a force to take an out of the way base and then offload my massive transports in these newly friendly bases a day or two later. I also plan to hoard as many of my smaller transports ( 1 to 2,000 tonners) for opposed landings against heavily defended enemy bases such as Pearl Harbour and some of the other American bases.
12. Political points. With 1,000 political points becoming available every day for Japan ( and 2,000 for the US) both sides should have a great deal of freedom as to how to deploy their forces. I believe that the combination of points 11 and 12 will mean that Japan will be able to mount strong operations for a significant time BUT will find itself unable to mount more than 2 major operations or 1 major and 2 minor operations at the one time.
From the Allied point of view most players used to stock will bemoan the lack of bomber and fighter replacement rates although, to be fair, one has to remember that Allied reinforcements appear with planes which do not come from the Allied replacement pool so any talk of a lack of bombers or fighters must take into account reinforcing fighter and bomber squadrons to have any meaning. This lack of replacements is also, to the best of my knowledge, more historical than stock, as is the lack of Japanese transports and the very difficult situation in China. From what I can see the Allied player is going to have to get himself out of the habit of fighting a forward defence unless he is particularly crafty and will have to conduct a fighting withdrawal at light contact. Do I expect Aztez to do that? No, he's far too aggressive for that from what I've read in his AARs. He is also a good player and really crucified his Japanese opponent in the AAR he has in 1944 now BUT, crucially, I think it is going to take him longer to adapt to the realities of RHS than it will take me. He'll adapt by the end of December 41 for sure but, if properly handled, he won't have enough of a force to adapt with by that time.
Plan:
In my initial AAR as Japan much was made of taking bases on Day 1 and how this accelerated Japanese operations in a way that taking them 3 or 4 days later ( the time taken for a troop convoy to transit in from outside of PBY range) would not have done. I, obviously, reject this as nonsense and toned down the 1st turn invasions significantly such that this could be demonstrated. 1st turn invasions occurred in historical areas ( Phillipines, DEI, Malaysia), those areas in which there was no Allied patrol cover ( Tulagi, Palmyra), areas which were accessible from transports sprinting in from the position of KB the day before the PH strike and suchlike.
1. Aerial Plan:
Manilla, Clark Field, Singapore and Pearl Harbour will all be hit with airfield attacks on December 7th. PH will be hit by every Val in KB, only the Kates will be tasked with Port Attacks, while the other airfields will be hit by naval bombers and Sallys. I have only 4 Zero Daitai available to me. One is crated up on a ship on its way to Johnston Island, 2 more are dedicated to the Phillipines and 1 will provide aerial cover to Johore Bahru once it falls to my forces. So, as you can see, my force of effective fighters is very limited but by tasking them in this way I expect Aztez to vastly over-estimate my strength. What I want him to see is hordes of naval bombers and Sallys hitting his main airbases while entire Zero Daitai fly daily sweeps over those same bases. If I met that sort of resistance I think I might think the enemy have overwhelming numbers also whereas, in fact, the enemy would be outnumbered ( although, admittedly, having excellent quality pilots and planes).
2. Ground Plan:
Only the north-eastern and Canton pockets in China are either essential enough or strong enough to be held by Japanese forces. Elsewhere my forces will be evacuated by ship or march overland to link up with friendly forces while I still maintain control over the roads. I will attempt to draw Chinese forces down on myself in the north and east and then, at a later time, once DEI, India , Hawaii and New Zealand are taken care of I will launch an extraordinary ( in the Soviet doctrinal sense) operation into the operative depth of China and unhinge the entire front in an effort to end meaningful resistance there in 3 to 4 months.
Soviet Union: I won't activate this until I have China cleared so, essentially, the Soviet Union will probably declare war on 1st January 1943.
Pacific: On day 1 I intend to land at Guam, Wake, Rabaul, Kavieng, Palmyra, French Frigate Shoals and the little atoll west of it. The landing at French Frigate Shoals is merely bait to draw US CVs into range. On Day 2 my CVs will race into strike range of any US CVs which decide to finish off the two transports assigned to this sacrificial mission. One other thing the FFS landing will allow is the basing of Mavis patrols within range of PH as I intend to catch the Allied ships when they try to escape.
Malaysia: Since I'm limiting myself so much in other areas and have accepted a number of what I think are questionable house rules ( SOviet activation on 1st January 1943, being forbidden to shock attack and pursue... although I have pointed out that this is open to exploitation by the expedient of simply setting a BF to enter a hex every turn. That way 3 or 4 BFs could rotate into and out of a hex containing 200,000 men and cancel their movement orders every turn. I have told Jari about this and he seems willing to not exploit this mechanic but I've told him that if it does happen repeatedly I will shock attack + pursue to end that exploit... Hopefully it won't be a problem. We'll find out soon enough at Johore Bahru. ) I am landing at Johore Bahru. I think it is tatically risky but also rewarding and so long as no BS happens with units entering the hex from the north, being attacked and then retreating into Singapore ( while cancelling all my movement orders every turn) it should work out fine. Aztez also insisted on a house rule that Singapore be taken before I could move on India. I compromised by suggesting that Singapore only had to be neutralised before moving on India. The landing at Johore Bahru is an attempt to take Singapore quickly and open the road to India.
Burma: Nothing much will happen here. Paratroops will take Victoria Point. I will then fly in aviation support and naval bombers and prevent evacuation via Rangoon. None of my troops will make for Burma via trails or paths. Instead I will either bypass it or land a small contingent to take Rangoon by sea as my Indian invasion convoy passes.
India: I will advance on India under cover of my 4 CVEs and 2 CVLs in the DEI region as soon as possible. Once the British forces in Malaysia are wiped out I will move onto India with them. Java and Sumatra will be attacked by the units which take Borneo and Sulawesi in the initial rush. These forces are, again, quite weak but will gain what they must through a rapid rate of operations
DEI: Amboina, Kendari, Balikpapan, Kuching and Brunei will be taken initially. Troops will then move on Sumatra and, later, Java. I will do what I can to temporally and geographically split the Allied defenders. It is quite possible that India will fall before Java is pacified if resistance in Java is particularly spirited. I think this would make an interesting operational variant and it amuses me to come up with a plan which allows for this variant.
Phillipines: Forces will land at Jolo and Cagayan in order to base aerial forces to interdict shipping fleeing from the Phillipines. Depending on the reaction of the Phillipine forces on Mindanao my forces will either root the Phillipinos out or abandon Mindanao once the shipping has escaped.
Aleutians: Everything up to Cold Harbour will be taken in the first week. The invasion forces here will gather off-shore under cover of some sea-based airpower and then make their run-ins on the 8th and 9th December.
3. Naval Plan:
4 x CVEs will launch a B4Y strike on Repulse in the waters around Singapore while KB hits Pearl Harbour. In my testing I've found that the results of a KB strike are, now, quite disappointing. It would appear that the drop in durability increases losses massively and means that the survivors are so rattled they often miss. Still, I will make the strike so that it does some damage and fulfills expectations. I will then race west into the arms of 1 to 2 American carriers and after, hopefully, winning that carrier battle will hang around out of range of PH until my C3Ns ( a recon variant of the Kate with an extended range of TEN hexes ) see BBs and CAs leaving PH. Any remaining US carriers will be forced to thread a line between my carriers ( which will try to move so that any US CV dash into PH gets them slaughtered) and Bettys operating out of Palmyra. So, the US CVs will move east south of the Hawaiian Islands ( and I have over a dozen seaplane tenders and seaplane-carrying armed merchant cruisers in this area precisely for the purpose of tracking these US CV movements and allowing me to establish their pattern of movement so that I can take them out at the appropriate time and place. I expect to lose several of these AMCs and AVs, especially as I'll use them as bait to draw the US CV airstrikes onto themselves instead of my irreplaceable carriers, but the cost will be worth it if I can get rid of these two US CVs. I also want to clear out as many CAs and BBs as possible since I do not want them getting loose amongst my invasion convoys when I begin landing at the Hawaiian islands in the latter half of December and throughout January.
Once PH is isolated I can bomb it back into the stone age and use it as a lure to Allied resupply and reinforcement/evacuation forces. With a little luck it may prove possible to get Aztez to throw more formations away in an effort to salvage the unsalvageable.
In the DEI etc I will just be quite conservative and push the Allied fleet away from Singapore and Palembang in order to allow landings in these areas. Once this has been accomplished the DEI Battleline will begin preparing for operations against India. The key is to move quickly against India while minimal forces can still achieve decisive results. This means that I want to have Betty bases interdicting SLOCs from Aden by the end of January 1942.
Tactical/Technical Analysis:
Well, the most important thing from a naval shipbuilding point of view is that the economy isn't sufficiently developed to handle a major shipbuilding programme ( that will have to be dealt with) but leaving that aside my shipbuilding will concentrate on those naval forces most distant at this time. My aim is to bring my entire carrier fleet to completion by the middle of 1943... hopefully in time to participate in foiling any enemy attempt to retake the Hawaiin Islands. All other naval shipbuilding programmes are subjugated to this requirement. Currently naval shipbuilding is at 1300 per day. I hope to get this up to 2200 per day by the middle of 1942 at which time I should have enough capacity to produce everything I need while keeping the carriers accelerated.
The most important airplanes in my arsenal are, in order,:
1. C3N1
This reconnaissance plane gives my carriers the ability to spot American TFs 10 hexes away. Since carriers are the decisive arm in the Pacific and intelligence superiority multiplies the lethality of that arm many times over the C3N1 should prove decisive. My plan to spot BBs escaping from PH would also be significantly more likely to fail without the C3N1. 30+ C3N1s flying from the pre-selected hexes just east of FFS can be relied upon to easily spot any damaged American BB seeking to escape. Once spotted it will be an easy task to calculate its likely path and intercept.
2. Emily.
Does for land bases what the C3N1 does for carriers.
3. Me-109E4.
A fighter with an armour rating of 1 in January 1942 will save innumerable IJA pilots' lives and will help me eke out maximum advantage from my pilot replacements. Unfortunately the range 2 normal, 3 extended makes the Me-109E4 Taifun suitably only for point defence but in that role it will still perform a vital service.
4. Zero.
The Zeroes long range is essential in decreasing the attrition of my bomber crews and helping minimise the draw-down in pilot replacements and maximise the consolidation of experienced aircrew.
5. Bettys.
Long-range torpedo-bomber which will prove essential for the defence of the Pacific Islands.
6. Sallys & Helens:
Minimise attrition of IJA pilot pools due to the presence of armour.
9. G5N & Emily transport.
With a solid back-bone of long-range, high capacity transports capable of operating from both developed and undeveloped bases my forces will gain a flexibility often missing from Japanese forces.
So, all in all a pretty simple plan. Hit PH, bait a CV trap and then fake a withdrawal from PH into position to spring that trap. Once the trap is sprung hand around until the C3Ns spot BBs and then move in in a methodical manner and hunt down the cripples. Once this is done move in on Hawaii itself. Destroy the Allied air force in the Phillipines and establish a temporary base in Mindanao. Intrerdict those ships that attempt to flee and move into Java and Sumatra with the Borneo/Sulawesi invasion forces. Interdict Northern Australia via paraborne troops and flown in aviation support.
Take Singapore by coup de main before rolling up the Malaysian peninsula. Isolate Burma. Once Malaysian operations are done move onto India ASAP. Evacuate much of China and concentrate on holding what is possible. Mop up the rear areas while waiting for operations in other theatres to finish.
Overall I think that RHS does a good job of slowing the initial Japanese advance. I only have the strength to conduct about 2/3rd of the invasions I might have done under stock. I have chosen to go into Aleutians on the cheap ( 1 Regiment but mostly just engineer Bns and BFs), the Pacific with 2 Divisions, the DEI with 3 Brigades and some SNLFs and Malaysia with 5 Divisions. I just didn't have the transport to hit the Phillipines or PH with sufficiently large, direct invasions or I would have. So the lack of transport will slow my operations in the early months. I have compensated for this by paring down my operations to just the most essential and then trying to do them with smaller forces more quickly than is normal. My gamble is that smaller forces 2 to 3 months earlier can succeed where larger forces fail. If I'm wrong my war economy will completely collapse by mid-42. I think its a gamble worth taking and, at the very least, it bucks the conventional wisdom and promises some rarely seen and interesting operational options, both of which are things I enjoy.
P.s. I should mention that apart from Johore Bahru I've mentioned every base at which I'm landing to Aztez and offered to redo the turn if, after viewing the turn 1 landings, he considers any landing to be a breach of the reasonableness we both agreed to in order to moderate the pace of the Japanese advance ( which I happen to think is just a silly Chimera many Allied players hide behind... It is entirely possible, in stock, to slow the Japanese pace of expansion by fighting hard and inflicting loss, trying to moderate it through rules is questionable and, also, will tend to fail... as I intend to show in this AAR.).
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