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I had a JagdGruppe, I'm not sure which, that was flying an average of less than a fight a day. They were scoring heavily mostly against Typhoons and A-20s, suffering little loss. Over a period of maybe a month they may have lost 5 pilots. Their morale sank and sank all the way down to 27, when they were withdrawn. I believe that this is exactly opposite to the way it should be. If a unit is scoring at 4-1, or even better, 6-1, it's morale should rise.

Here's something I found. Jim Morehead was a P-40 pilot during the dark days of Japanese expansion in Java and Darwin. He said; "Later I was a squadron commander in the Mediterranean. We had some bad times but normally we were confident because we were winning. Even when on the bad end of an engagement, the morale in our units was never remotely as bad as it was early in the Pacific war."

morale can go down for a bucketload of reasons - fatigue (front line units high alert), losses, strafing, flying through flak (even friendly). Moving units hurts, too.

A poor leader will affect the morale gains...

There may be more, but that's all off the top of my head...