MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

The start of Axis impulse #2 had me trying to decide between a Land or Combined Action for Italy. I'd like to get both of those units from Greece over to Africa ASAP, but it would take both land moves to debark them from transports in a Combined Action, so I took a Land Action instead. They'll just have to wait.

I began the attacks with 5 Ground Strikes that, if lucky, could disorganize as many as 10 enemy units. In the end, I only put 3 units out of action, but it was well worth the effort. Japan failed to disorganize any units in the double-stacks in and near Sian, but Italy managed to clip the wings off a RAF Tomahawk in Dover. Germany hit the Canadian MIL hard near Tangier, and in a low-odds attempt also managed to nail one of the defenders in Suez. It would have been a much more brilliant success if HQ-A Wavell had been the unlucky victim, but this success does actually help the Italian cause a lot (I'll explain that more in a later post).

These are the two strikes that made me happiest:
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If you're wondering why I had the FTR in Dover rather than some other location, with the certain knowledge that Italy could attempt this, there is a very simple answer with two reasons. First, this fighter was intended to provide protection for a later possible Strategic Bombing mission, if needed. It might have been able to do that from a different hex, but my priority for the first impulse of this turn was to reload my CVs with aircraft. Too much to do, to few Air Missions.

[Red Prince]

This image shows why I was so thrilled to nail one of the units in Suez. With one unit unable to attack, Italy can force Wavell to move to the hex of its choice, where it is most useful to the Italians. This could, of course, be done without the Ground Strike, but now the Cairo MIL is completely safe from a CW attack intended to put the Southern forces OOS.

If both CW units were organized, they could move the 4-2 MIL into the open hex and debark the Indian INF from the Red Sea (lower-right insert) into Suez with Wavell. That offers a 4:1 Blitz attack on the Cairo MIL (with a 50% chance at 5:1). Now Wavell is forced to make the move if the CW wants to debark the Indian INF (probably into Suez). The best possible attack now is a 2:1 Assault on the Cairo MIL -- not good odds at all.

The insert at the upper-left shows the moves I made into Syria. Originally, I intended to move the MTN unit into Transjordan and let the Cairo MIL risk destruction in a CW attack. The next impulse was to be a Combined Action, so that I could get one of the units from Greece into Beirut and the other into Egypt. Voila! Italian Corps in countries adjacent to Iraq = 4, and the at the next opportunity, Italy could align Iraq.

Plans change as opportunities arise. Italy will need to wait another impulse to get that job done; next up will have to be another Land Action to counter whatever the CW does in Egypt . . . and to move the MECH from Beirut into Tripoli, to be replaced by the MOT. That gives the Italians 2 ports to use for debarking units from the E. Med, so the 3rd Italian impulse will be the Combined, with both units heading from Greece to Syria. Viola, again! That still gives me 4 Italian Corps in a nation adjacent to Iraq, just one impulse later. Sure, the Syrian TERR might try to run for either Transjordan or Palestine, but plans can always change, and they can be dealt with accordingly. It may push my plans back yet another impulse, but the MTN can still reach a position to protect the German LND, and if the French attempt it, they're going to lose Damascus.

[Red Prince]

This just goes to prove that no matter how hard you look, no matter how much you calculate, you just can't possibly see every potential course of action. Somehow I missed the fact that Japan could add another 3-stack to the attack west of Sian. The only way it could have been stopped was either to retreat the MTN into that hex (to the east) or to weaken the defenses of one of the double-stacks. Either way, the end result would be a strong attack against the hex west of Sian, so this is more of an observational mistake than an operational mistake.

[Red Prince]

So, the attacks for Axis Impulse #2:



And the results:

Attack on China [76, 136]: Blitz, Roll = 7 = */1B (Converted to Retreat, MIL destroyed, GARR retreated to HQ-I Mao)
Attack on Spanish Morocco [74, 17]: Assault, Fractional Odds .240 (Yes), Roll = 6+1 = 7 = */2S


In China, this may be another situation where I'm just not wise enough yet in choosing a CRT. I initially was going to use the Assault table for the 50/50 chance of disorganizing the enemy, but I realized that anything from 4-6 units could be reorganized at the end of the impulse. So, I decided on the Blitz table instead. This reduces the disorganization chances to 30%, but it increases the odds of survival to 70% for at least 1 unit and 30% for both to survive. On the Assault CRT, there's a mere 40% chance that a single defender might survive, and no chance that both would. Any surviving units force Japan to decide to either retreat the units or to shatter them. If Japan is stupid enough to shatter the units, they can come back next turn and create problems. Of course, Japan isn't that dumb, and the locations that are open for retreat can soon be isolated, bat at least there would be a second unit in the hex, making it that much more difficult for Japan to take it.

Turns out it sort of worked. As well as it could, anyway.

The attack near Tangiers for Germany went off without a hitch, and only Mogodor remains to be taken to secure Morocco.

[Red Prince]

Germany and Italy both rebased some bomber power into Libya to finish off the impulse.

And, finally, the Allies get a slight reprieve with the new weather roll:

[Red Prince]

How big a deal is this weather roll? See for yourself. In order to get any of these units back into supply, HQ-I Terauchi is going to have to move and be disorganized. Even then, without Sian and its rail link, only about half of these units can actually attack. A Fine weather attack that would easily have been a 5:1 Assault is now probably not going to be remotely reasonable from the Japanese point of view.

Well, maybe "remotely reasonable" is accurate. The best I can figure right now is that Japan can manage a 35:9 Assault, making it basically 4:1 shifted to 3:1 because of weather. That's only a 40% chance of success, down from 70% in better weather. Not sure I'm willing to take that risk. Might be more prudent to pray for better weather next time around.

[Centuur]

I personally would have moved the Communist MTN to get those Japanese units west OOS. The Communists are doomed anyhow, since they are surrounded and aren't defending in the mountians anymore. So it is better to force the Japanese into doing things which might harm US entry, if that's possible. It's the only thing the Communists can do at this point, before Sian is going to get taken by the Japanese. Also: I would probably have moved one unit from the stack next to Sian into the mountains, to make sure the MTN can retreat next impulse (getting disorganised, but that isn't that bad in the mountains). Since US entry is already high, the Japanese might opt not to retake Ankang and delay getting the western forces back in supply. Of course, that than would be to the Japanese player to take into account.
It is usually better to get the opponent to react on your play than it is to react on the opponents play yourself. Even when in a desperate defense, don't simply wait for the ax to fall unto your head but force the opponent into all kinds of actions he doesn't want to focus on. Even when moving the Japanese into Ankang and getting the western forces back in supply, that is going to get two Japanese land units disorganised and unable to contribute to attacks this turn...

The CW FTR should never have been put in Dover at the first place. It is the only hex which can be bombarded out of France, so I never put any oil depending unit in that hex. Bombarding is free and oil isn't.

In Egypt the CW needs to keep the Shore Bombardment factors in place to defend Wavell. No way the Italians are going to get anything better than a 3-2 against him. So simply sit tight with Wavell. The Axis needs more air and higher combat factors to kill him at this point. However: if they appear in the area: I would suggest evacuating him. Don't loose him, since that's expensive... 

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I personally would have moved the Communist MTN to get those Japanese units west OOS. The Communists are doomed anyhow, since they are surrounded and aren't defending in the mountians anymore. So it is better to force the Japanese into doing things which might harm US entry, if that's possible. It's the only thing the Communists can do at this point, before Sian is going to get taken by the Japanese. Also: I would probably have moved one unit from the stack next to Sian into the mountains, to make sure the MTN can retreat next impulse (getting disorganised, but that isn't that bad in the mountains). Since US entry is already high, the Japanese might opt not to retake Ankang and delay getting the western forces back in supply. Of course, that than would be to the Japanese player to take into account.
It is usually better to get the opponent to react on your play than it is to react on the opponents play yourself. Even when in a desperate defense, don't simply wait for the ax to fall unto your head but force the opponent into all kinds of actions he doesn't want to focus on. Even when moving the Japanese into Ankang and getting the western forces back in supply, that is going to get two Japanese land units disorganised and unable to contribute to attacks this turn...

The CW FTR should never have been put in Dover at the first place. It is the only hex which can be bombarded out of France, so I never put any oil depending unit in that hex. Bombarding is free and oil isn't.

In Egypt the CW needs to keep the Shore Bombardment factors in place to defend Wavell. No way the Italians are going to get anything better than a 3-2 against him. So simply sit tight with Wavell. The Axis needs more air and higher combat factors to kill him at this point. However: if they appear in the area: I would suggest evacuating him. Don't loose him, since that's expensive... 

At most, one Japanese unit would have to be disorganized by the effort to re-instate supply to the west.
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Edit: Point of interest. Italy railed the ART to Calais late last turn, so there was a single impulse "response" time for the CW. It was an Air Action (a what?), so I should have been able to get the FTR out of Dover (unless it was disorganized, which I don't think it was). At that point, though, I was simply too flustered to realize the potential danger.

A friend of mine with a lot of military experience (Vietnam) behind enemy lines recently told me: "Winning a battle is the art of sowing confusion among your enemies and taking advantage of it".

Guess what, folks, as the CW, I'm confused (as you've seen) and it's certainly working in the Axis' favor. [:)]

As for evacuating Wavell this turn, it can't be done. Plans were set in motion to reinforce the Suez and to restructure the convoy routes. That used up all 4 TRS units. Desperate times call for desparate measures, and losing either half its Production capacity or a bunch of convoys was not at all appealing to the CW Strategic Command. Wavell will just have to fend for himself for one more turn, if he can. He does have a good sized support fleet to help him out, so he'll probably survive the turn. He can be evacuated in N/D '40 if it seems necessary.

[Centuur]

Ahh. But there aren't any Axis high factor units in Egypt at this moment... I simply stated that if that happens, you should be able to get him out. Keep thinking ahead with the CW. Don't think you need to do things this turn or this impulse. You need to keep in mind that you need to do something in one or two turns time. I would think that there might be some high factor combat units or an air force appearing in Egypt in the next two turns to get that nasty and irritating Wavell out of the area. When that happens, simply remove him from the area and give up on Suez (because at that moment you can't hold the place anyhow, so why fight to the death...).
Playing the CW is to throw cheap units at the enemy in early war and to preserve the expensive ones. Wavell is very expensive, so he should be saved, when it looks like the Euroaxis are going to be able to get a good attack on him, not before. At this moment he is a real pain in the proverbial behind for the Axis and they can't do a thing about it, yet. So he should stay where he is, for the moment.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Ahh. But there aren't any Axis high factor units in Egypt at this moment... I simply stated that if that happens, you should be able to get him out. Keep thinking ahead with the CW. Don't think you need to do things this turn or this impulse. You need to keep in mind that you need to do something in one or two turns time. I would think that there might be some high factor combat units or an air force appearing in Egypt in the next two turns to get that nasty and irritating Wavell out of the area. When that happens, simply remove him from the area and give up on Suez (because at that moment you can't hold the place anyhow, so why fight to the death...).
Playing the CW is to throw cheap units at the enemy in early war and to preserve the expensive ones. Wavell is very expensive, so he should be saved, when it looks like the Euroaxis are going to be able to get a good attack on him, not before. At this moment he is a real pain in the proverbial behind for the Axis and they can't do a thing about it, yet. So he should stay where he is, for the moment.

Check out the post about the weather. At the start of it I mention that Germany and Italy sent some LND to Libya. That means next impulse all 3 will be in Egypt. The future is sooner than you think (I thought that was what you were talking about when I said I can't get him out now).

[Red Prince]

I full intended to leave both of the TERR units in Damascus, giving them as many factors as possible with which to defend, but I decided to take a page out of Centuur's book. Leaving one in Damascus and sending the other toward Amman, Italy is now forced to react. Damascus is going to fall, one way or another, but France might be able to win Transjordan for its own for a short while. There are a bunch of options, and it will depend on the length of the turn, but at least now Italy has to react.

[Red Prince]

Similarly, I've decided to abandon Mogodor. The Germans will get the port, but they'll also have to chase the French CAV down the coast. If they don't get that done before the USA enters the war, there will be some nice hexes that can be used as landings for HQ units . . . and then others. Of course, Germany isn't going to waste a bunch of ARM or MECH units on this task, since they need to cross North Africa to be ready for Barbarossa. But it still means committing 1 or 2 other units to the cause. Those hexes need to be German, so that the USA is forced to DOW Germany before Italy. That means this task can't be left to the Italians in the region.
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Edit: What this also means is that Italy is going to have to get a substantial naval force into Cape St. Vincent soon to make sure supply can get through to these hexes . . . at least until an HQ unit is available for that purpose.

[Red Prince]

Other things that happened during the Allied impulse:

The USA sent 3 TRS into position to be able to deliver HQ-I Nimitz, a quality FTR, and a MAR to Pago Pago at the end of the turn.
The USSR began its efforts to form a defense, screening Odessa (as suggested) and rebasing some more of its airforce into safer locations.
France and the CW sent out most of the Convoys needed to sustain CW production levels.
The CW once again failed to find those sneaky Germans in the N. Atlantic, but the Germans were so busy hiding that they couldn't find the CW either.
Due to the poor weather, an attempt to win back the North Sea was put on hold. I probably won't attempt it until more of the fleet has arrived (next turn).
The Indian INF debarked into Suez and wil hopefully be able to hold on for the rest of the turn.

And, that crafty AOI Territorial -- the one that has been galavanting across E. Africa with so much freedom -- has finally been halted in his tracks! Though it's now OOS, the South African TERR was able to get into position to isolae the AOI devil. That means it will be out of commission until at least J/F '41, since it won't be able to reorganize at the end of this turn. If Wavell does survive long enoughto be evacuated, I can't think of a better place to send him than Beira, Mozambique. That's where the Cape Town ML is now (after a rail move). Granted, he won't be leading "real" units into battle, but he'll be out of harm's way and might even be able to reclaim some of the lost E. African territories.

[Red Prince]

A slight change of plan for the Italians. Instead of a Land Action, they went ahead with the Combined Action and got fresh units into Tel Aviv and Beirut. The sooner they can finish off Damascus, the better. As for Japan, I decided I've been taking risks all game anyway, so what's one more?

The attacks for impulse #5:



And the results:

Attack on Sian: Assault, Fractional Odds .513 (Yes), Roll = 8 = -/1S (Converted to Retreat, GARR destroyed, INF retreated NW of Mao, attackers disorganized) USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Damascus: Assault, Fractional Odds .217 (Yes), Roll = 1+1 = 2 = 1/1 (4-5 MOT destroyed, attackers disorganized)

Deep sigh of relief for the Japanese troops. They got the job done. And, although they are now disorganized, 2 of the units I moved into Sian were the MAR units that I'll want to rail to Canton for later invasions. Now that Mao and his few remaining troops are all disorganized and isolated, it's mop-up time (except for that MTN unit). Of greater benefit is that this now puts almost the entire Northern Front back into supply so that it can actually do the mop-up work.

My luck finally ran out for Italy (sort of). I grabbed Damascus, but at the cost of a Motorized Corps and 2 disorganized Oil-dependent units. Depending on how France chooses to move the remaining TERR next impulse, I may have even lost my shot at aligning Iraq this turn. I'm not too disappointed, though. That TERR will vanish when the turn ends, and it shouldn't be too difficult to regain Transjordan. It might mean postponing attacks on Suez, but that's okay by me. I still see this as "Mission Accomplished". [And not the way Bush meant it, either!]

[Red Prince]

To finish off the impulse, Germany rebased 2 LND to Alexandria and Italy rebased another LND into the area for a total of 11 factors of Ground Support. I was extremely eager to use HQ-I Yamamoto to reorganize 4 of the land units used in the attack on Sian, but forgot that it was a Combined Action. When I realized this, I decided not to "waste" him just yet.

After the victory at Sian, this is all that remains for the Chinese . . . Kunming. They can almost certainly hold out for the rest of this turn, and might even be able to hold the city next turn, too. Surrender is not an option! (Or is it?)

[Red Prince]

The new weather rol doesn't really help anyone, and it doesn't really hurt anyone. The North Sea is now a better playground for the RAF, but should I dive in to that fight? The CVPs available are very weak. However, Germany probably can't get any FTR support into anything higher than the 2 Box, and maybe not even that, so it might be worth taking a shot at the German fleet.

I suppose the weather roll does help Japan a bit, since the HQ in the above post is now able to move again.

[Taxman66]

I don't see a ground unit under the GE bomber. I think the French TERR should overrun that first/instead.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I don't see a ground unit under the GE bomber. I think the French TERR should overrun that first/instead.

"Italy ... fresh troops into Tel Aviv ...". A.k.a., Jaffa.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I don't see a ground unit under the GE bomber. I think the French TERR should overrun that first/instead.

"Italy ... fresh troops into Tel Aviv ...". A.k.a., Jaffa.

What Steve siad. [:)]

(Re-used image -- too lazy to take another shot)

Now, pretend the French have lost Damascus and the 2 units beside it are unavailable for further attacks. Also pretend there is a 5-3 INF in Jaffa/Tel Aviv (where the German LND is).

Being OOS, the French TERR get to make one more move this turn. That's going to disorganize it, but France doesn't care because with Damascus lost, the TERR is going to be taken off the map at the end of the turn anyway. So, the best move I think it can make now is through Amman to the hex SE of Jerusalem. The 5-3 Italian INF will be forced to move to Amman, and the MTN unit in Port Said will be ZOCed so that it can't reach Tranjordan. Even the inevitable 10:1 Assault on the poor TERR won't let it get into Tranjordan, which means that unlsess there are two more Axis impulses after that attack, Italy won't be able to activate Iraq this turn.

It's very unlikely that the turn will last that long, so this simple move means that something Italy was hoping to do in J/A '40 will have to wait until N/D '40. That's a clear victory, as I see it, and was only made possible by Italy rolling a '1' in the attack on Damascus. Any other roll, and there would still be a 3rd unit in Syria.

[Red Prince]

ATTN: warspite1 (and all other CW fanatics out there) [:)]

You can stand proud, now! I decided to take a risk with the RN. Now that my CVs are loaded and eager to deploy, I chose to risk battle in the North Sea. And, guess what happened! Good rolls for the Commonwealth! In fact, the rolls were so good that I decided to take a somewhat unorthodox approch to the situation. Instead of selecting the Naval Air Combat that would be completely "safe" for the CW fleet, I chose to let my CVP remain on their CVs and let the fleet itself take care of business.

My reasoning for this odd choice? Well, here goes: Either way, as a Naval Air Combat or a Surface Combat, I'd start with the same Column on the CRT. However, since the German AA vs. 4 enemy aircraft gets the worst of 2 die rolls, I'd be forced to move down 1 column at a minimum, and at worst I might lose some aircraft! At the moment, I don't have any aircraft to spare, so why not let the navy take the beating? I can move up 4 columns, which absolutely gauruntees that at least 2 of the enemy ships will end up destroyed and the rest either damaged or aborted. At the same time, any RN ships that end up damaged in this action can eventually be repaired by that wealthy ally "across the pond".

So, prepare for the North Sea to be retaken! Here's what things look like after spending all 8 Surprise Points to Increase Columns. Check out the difference between the Original Result and the Expected Axis Losses.

I didn't happen to notice the change in power (typical American, aren't I?), but it looks like Chamberlain is out and Churchill is in.
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Edit: I rechecked, and it isn't absolute that 2 units will end up destroyed. If Germany is willing to take some risks (and we know that they are), it's more likely that all 5 units will end up in the Damaged Pool. As Germany, I'm still decideing which is the better option to attempt.