Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[vettim89]

I realize now that it may be too late to attempt what I am about to suggest, but perhaps you might consider a change in long range strategic goals. To this point your thinking has been that your opponent will eventually take Sumatra or at least attempt to take it from you. You have largely conceded Java as part of your build up in southern Sumatra. Have you considered changing from a defensive strategy to an offensive one in the western DEI. So instead of taking Tarawa why not use those troops to reinforce western Java? You could build up Merak, Batavia and Benkholen (the latter has excellant defensive terrain). As you pour more units into this region you could slowly work east up Java.

Yes this would leave the eastern Pacific vulnerable but with the Allies in possession of Palembang and being able to threaten Soerobaja, Chez would be limited to the fuel produced on Borneo and points north. Point being that the fuel costs alone would prohibit any overly adventuresome activities in the SoPac by the Japanese.

The objective in taking/retaking bases in the SoPac and CentPac is to provide stepping stones into the Japanese interior. If you can hold the western DEI, you will have avoided a large portion of those necessary steps. From Java/Sumatra you could strike Borneo and then the PI, Malaya, or even Indochina. I know there are a lot of inherent dangers playing in Japan's back yard, but if you are already there why not run with it.

[Canoerebel]

Tim, the difficulty in expanding the Allied defensive perimeter to Java is that this is Scenario Two.  Japan gets four extra divisions, so has alot of infantry power to work with.  With so many bases on Java, there's no way to prevent Japan from landing in strength and then marching west to deal with such an Allied defense.  And Japan could easily bring ten to fifteen divisions.  Against that, three or four Allied divisions wouldn't stand a chance.
 
Allied operations elsewhere are also of benefit to the Allies in Sumatra.  These operations, when properly conceived and implemented, can confuse the enemy and siphon off critical resources.  At present, for instance, Steve has committed several cruisers and some kind of small carrier force to the Kuriles, at least one BB to SoPac, and more troops to China.
 
The invasion of Tarawa will pose a grave threat to Steve's lengthy LOC from the Solomons Luganville to Noumea to Fiji to Pago Pago.  This will probably worry him "more than normal" because he's put alot of time and effort into this campaign and has been one of his successes.   So, threatening "his baby" should result in further confusion and could well result in more misallocation of assets.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Tim, the difficulty in expanding the Allied defensive perimeter to Java is that this is Scenario Two.  Japan gets four extra divisions, so has alot of infantry power to work with.  With so many bases on Java, there's no way to prevent Japan from landing in strength and then marching west to deal with such an Allied defense.  And Japan could easily bring ten to fifteen divisions.  Against that, three or four Allied divisions wouldn't stand a chance.

Allied operations elsewhere are also of benefit to the Allies in Sumatra.  These operations, when properly conceived and implemented, can confuse the enemy and siphon off critical resources.  At present, for instance, Steve has committed several cruisers and some kind of small carrier force to the Kuriles, at least one BB to SoPac, and more troops to China.

The invasion of Tarawa will pose a grave threat to Steve's lengthy LOC from the Solomons Luganville to Noumea to Fiji to Pago Pago.  This will probably worry him "more than normal" because he's put alot of time and effort into this campaign and has been one of his successes.   So, threatening "his baby" should result in further confusion and could well result in more misallocation of assets.

I agree about the problems with the Sc. 2 OOB, but the benefits of fixing the bulk of the IJA force in place could very well outweight the risks. Yes, Steve could throw the whole enchilada at you but he would have to bring his entire reserve of unrestricted divisions. If his free force is locked in battle in the DEI, then it is not in Oz, or India, or NZ. What's more is that if all this combat strength is fixated in the SRA, he will be vulnerable elsewhere.

You are about to start receiving CB units at an amazing rate. A bunch of those units deployed to Sumatra and western Java may create a situation where you can build forts faster than your opponent knocks them down. As I said initially, it may be too late to do this as Chez may arrive on Java in force before you can get the units in place. Still it is an interesting strategic problem.

Where did your reckless abandon evaporate to? When you invaded the Kuriles, you had to know it was with great risk. Look what it bought you: the time to make southern Sumatra nearly unconquerable. Yes, you might lose some units if you go all in in the western DEI, but that is not a foregone conclusion. In my mind it is much less risky than the Kuriles campaign. Tarawa is even riskier because even if your assault is sucessful you can only leave a marginal garrison there. Also it is in the midst of innumerable Japanese bases where it will be isolated and cut off. Western Java can be easily supported with several large bases on Sumatra.

My initial point was that your view of the SRA up to this point has been to fortify it like crazy then sit back and wait for the enemy to come against your fortress. You are conceding the initiative to him. Nemo will not be happy

[Canoerebel]

Oh, I still have the initiative!
 
Here's thing - at this point in the game I would like Chez to invade New Zealand, Oz, or India.  That would be a strategic misallocation of forces. It would essentially guarantee that the Allies would always hold eastern Sumatra, which is the critical issue in the game, and the Allies would also immediately go on the offensive elsewhere (Malaya, Burma and the Gilberts).
 
What I don't want to do is to get bogged down in a huge land campaign where I commit so much that I eliminate my ability to move offensively elsewhere.  That's what I think a major effort to reinforce Java would lead to.
 
But, as you note, it's a moot question - it's too late to put such a plan into effect at this late a date.

[ny59giants]

I would tend to favor a re-capture of Burma. With Rangoon back in your hands, you could unload massive amounts of supplies that could be moved to China by manipulation of the supply draw buttons. Each base could have the 25k button hit and once the supply is there just hit the next base with it and move it there. 100k or 200k in China would make his life really hard as you could base 4e bombers there.

[Canoerebel]

5/6/42
 
DEI:  No sign of imminent enemy invasion of Java or Sumatra.  The Japanese have landed at the small Sumatran port city of Bengkalis, which was undefended.  On Borneo, the Japanese took Brunei.  Allied carriers and some capital ships are moving west a bit to be in better position to move into the Bay of Bengal in case an opportunity or need arises there (see below).

Bay of Bengal:  The Allies are going to set the table to invade Malaya/Thailand, and will proceed if conditions still look favorable when the table is set in three or four days.  We believe Burma and Thailand are lightly guarded.  We also believe a strong move there would seriously disorient/confuse/vex the enemy.  A small IJA cav regiment (27 AV) just took the vacant base of Megui, leaving Tavoy as the sole Allied base on the west coast of the peninsual.  Here's the plan:  by fast transport, the Allies will land a US RCT at Tavoy.  By air transport, the Allies would carry part of an RAF base force there.  This would permit at leat a small amount of RAF fighter CAP at Tavoy.  As this was unfolding, the Allies would suddenly recon Moulmein and land there if vacant.  If not vacant, the Allies would land in force at Tavoy and exploit from there.  The troops include a Brit recce armored unit that could move fast.  Other troops will include 27th USA Div., two Brit brigades, a US tank unit, and a Marine battalion.  It is believed that Rangoon is lightly held and poorly supplied, so that the only decent enemy airbase in vicinity is Bangkok.  I think it is also likely that the bulk of enemy air is down south.  I'd like to use the Allied carriers to cover the operation, but probably won't risk removing them from the Sumatra station unless I get confirmation in the meantime that the KB is far away.  So, there are a number of factors that must turn positive in order for the Allis to proceed, but I want the table set to act quickly.  And since the Allied troops are all at Colombo, it won't take long to preposition them west of Port Blair.

China:  With overwhelming odds in their favor at Anyang, the Chinese only manage a 2:1 dropping forts from 2 to 1.  Another nudge tomorrow should do the trick.

NoPac:  Warspite and Colorado at steaming south to Pearl, where they'll serve as the heavy ships in the upcoming Tarawa invasion.  Since Maryland and Idaho are on the way to the yards at Seattle, this leaves only Tennessee in NoPac.

CenPac:  The Tarawa invasion force will begin loading (strat mode) at San Diego tomorrow, make for Pearl, unload, and then combat load.  Japan hasn't built the facilities at Tarawa or nearby Nauru and Ocean, so this looks like a weakly defended backwater (I hope).

SoPac:  The lead elements of the Pago Pago relief force are making good time.  A battalion of 21st RCT is on transports just south of Christmas Island.  The rest of 21 RCT and a US Army tank unit are few days behind.  N Force Detachment out of Auckland is also on the way.  No signs of enemy activity around PP at the moment.  Given ten more days of quiet, the Japanese situation at Pago Pago will turn from bad to really bad.

Synopsis:  Alof of wheels in motion for the Allies.  I really like the feel of the overall scheme, but I will not lose sight of the fact that everything hinges on the defense of Sumatra now.  Any other Allied operation must benefit Sumatra.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in the Bay of Bengal, lower Burma, and upper Malaya 5/16/42:

[GreyJoy]

CR...it really looks good!
Based on how many units i've seen thrown against me in scenario 2 it's unbelievable how lightly Burma-Thailand is guarded...have you managed to track down the position of all the unrestricted divisions?

[Canoerebel]

In the aftermath of the fall of Singapore and Bataan, I have lost track of most of the IJA divisions, especially those that have been or could be committed in the Pacific. 
 
Here's what I do know about the Pacific.  SigInt just showed 4th Div. at Bataan.  SigInt reported 52nd Div. on a maru bound for Singapore (a weird thing if true).  38th Div. is at Sabang.  54th Div. is at Ominato, Japan (in preparation for going to the Kuriles, I believe).  7th is on Hokkaido.
 
The Chinese offensive that has roughed up at least four divisions is of utmost importance, as it has created a crisis which compels STeve (or impels him by virtue of his worries) to feed divisions into that battle.  Divisions roughed up thus far: 34, 36, 39, 104.  

[paullus99]

Any idea what units he committed to Point Blair? Whatever he sent must have been roughed up quite a bit - perhaps another Division that is out of the fight for a while.

[Canoerebel]

Steve has been hoarding or hiding his divisions.  The invasions of Port Blair and Pago Pago consisted of regiments or naval guard units, nothing larger.  (I confess that those regiments could be part or all of division-sized units, but I haven't kept close enough track to know - IE, I don't know which at start IJ regiments can be combined to create divisions.)
 
On the one hand, Steve has alot of big ground units to work with, this being Scenario Two and the Allies also having triggered the reinforcements by invading the Kuriles.  On the other hand, Steve has suffered some important attrition to his carriers, capital ships, and transports.  I don't know just how much I've whittled down his ability to transport big ground units, but I think it's relatively significant. 
 
He could come for New Zealand, Australia, or Hawaii, which are all under-protected, but I would welcome any of those moves as the Allies could counter elsewhere in strategically more important ways.

[witpqs]

Steve has been hoarding or hiding his divisions.

I's keeps telling ya. "Mind the West Coast" I says. "Guard the Golden Gate" I says. Dat man is up to no good.

[Canoerebel]

That thought ran through my mind during the dark recesses of the night, when imagination runs amock, but here's the thing:  Due to previous combat action, Steve is very low on AOs, the KB is somewhat reduced, and alot of xAPs have been trashed.  Moreover, BB Hiei - an almost sure KB escort - was recently in action at Pago Pago.  So Steve's ability to carry massive amounts of infantry long distances is insufficient to allow a crazy Hail Mary to succeed.  Or, that's my evaluation of things. 
 
Now, an invasion of Oz or New Zealand (or possibly even Hawaii) wouldn't totally shock me.  But the USA and, at least in the near term, India, would.

[witpqs]

I'm joking, and you're waking up in cold sweats having nightmares!

What have I done? What have I done...

[Canoerebel]

[font="times new roman"]Here's a summary of Japanese capital ship disposition.  In looking at this summary, I'm always using a prism of "what's available in the DEI" since that's the critical battlefield.  Ships sunk or currently on station in CenPac or the Kuriles are, IMO, way out of position.  Confirmed sunk ships in red.[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"] Fleet Carriers[/font]
                      [font="times new roman"]Shokaku – Last seen near Rossell Island, Solomons, 2/2/42.[/font]
                      [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]Zuikaku – Last seen near Rossell Island 2/2/42.[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Akagi – Last seen near north Borneo 4/15/42.[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Kaga - Last seen near north Borneo 4/15/42[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]                       [font="times new roman"]Soryu - Last seen near north Borneo 4/15/42[/font]    
                       [font="times new roman"]Hiryu - Last seen near north Borneo 4/15/42[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]                       [font="times new roman"]Junyo (3/42) - Pure hunch she's in the Kuriles.[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Hiyo (7/42) - If available, probably in the Kuriles.[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
             [font="times new roman"]Light Carriers[/font]
                       [/b][font="times new roman"]Ryujo –  sunk near Dempassar 02/26/42[/font]
                      [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]Zuiho – sunk near Dempassar 02/26/42[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Shoho - sunk in the Java Sea 02/11/42[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Ryuho (11/42)[/font]
                       
[font="times new roman"]         Escort Carriers[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Taiyo – reportedly took three sub-launched torps near Kendari 3/4/42, one torp from a sub near Calayan 5/7/42 “heavy damage”[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"]Hosho – Last seen near Makassar 1/25/42[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]         [/font][font="times new roman"]Battleships[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]                Hi[/font][font="times new roman"]ei - Pago Pago 4/26/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Kirishima - with Shokaku and Zuikaku near Rossell Island 2/2/42[/font]
                       [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]Mutsu – Java Sea on 3/25/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Nagato – Java Sea 3/25/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Fuso – moderate damage near Denpasar 02/26/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Kongo – took at least one torp and five bombs near Port Blair 4/14/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Haruna – sunk near Port Blair 4/14/186[font="times new roman"]187[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"]Yamashiro – Java Sea 3/25/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]Ise – sunk near Port Blair 4/14/42[/font]
                        [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]Hyuga – takes torpedo near Babeldaob 12/28/41[/font]
                         [font="times new roman"]Yamato (5/42)[/font]
                         [font="times new roman"]Musashi (12/42)[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]        Heavy Cruisers[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]                 [/font][font="times new roman"]Tone - Pago Pago 4/26/42[/font]
[font="times new roman"]                 [/font][font="times new roman"]Chikuma - Pago Pago 4/26/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Mogami – at Tarakan 3/30/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Suzuya – Donggala 3/22/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Kumano – near Makassar 1/25/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Mikuma – Kuriles 4/21/42 and 5/7/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Chokai -  at Lautem 3/25/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Maya – Java Sea 3/25/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Ashigara – Kuriles 4/22/42 and 5/7/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"]Takao – Lautem 3/9/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Atago – Lautem 3/9/42[/font]
                           [/b][font="times new roman"]Myoko – heavily damaged near Denpassar 02/26/42 and later confirmed sunk.[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Hagura – near Makassar 1/25/42 and 3/28/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Nachi – near Makassar 3/28/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Aoba – with Shokaku and Zuikaku near Rossell Island 2/2/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Kinugasa– with Shokaku and Zuikaku near Aleutians 1/14/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Furutaka – light damage near Port Blair 4/13/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]Kako – heavily damaged near Port Blair 4/13/42 (probably sunk)[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]CS Mizuho – at Kendari 1/16/42[/font]
                          [font="times new roman"] [/font][font="times new roman"]CS Chitose[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]CS Chiyoda – near Port Blair 4/13/42[/font]
                           [font="times new roman"]CS Nisshin (2/42)[/font]

[Canoerebel]

5/7/42
 
Here we are at the five-month anniversary of Pearl Harbor.  The Allies still hold Java and eastern Sumatra, have successfully invaded the Kuriles (though only for temporary purposes), and have materially attrited enemy capital ships and army divisions.  That's good progress for this early date.
 
Off Luzon:  S-39 puts a torp into CVE Taiyo, inflicting "heavy damage."  Taiyo is the ship that took three sub-launched torps near Kendari just a couple of months ago, so she's doing okay considering what she's been through.  However, that puts her (and three other sunk CVLs) out of commission for the impending Battle of the DEI, whenever it actually gets underway.
 
DEI:  Patrols report the KB - at least five fleet carriers - at Balikpan.  This gets our full attention and puts a halt to any budding notions that the Allies could briefly send carriers up to the Bay of Bengal.  No sign of imminent invasion though.
 
Bay of Bengal:  An IJ combat TF, which looks pretty stout, is making it's way up Malaya's west coast as though heading for Rangoon or possibly to interdict what little Allied shipping is at Port Blair.  It might be part of a big fast transport convoy carrying supply to Rangoon.  The Allies have a fairly small combat TF flagged by CA Portland nearby.  This TF will stay close enough to take action if needed.  The American FT TF carrying a battalion of US Army troops departed Colombo and is well on its way to the area.  If an opportunity presents itself this force can land at Allied-held Tavoy or even invade Moulmein if undefended.
 
China:  The Chinese stack savaged 10 IJ units at Anyang, including another whipping of 36th Div.  The Japanese lost at least 600 squads.  The Japanese are sending mucho reinforcements, including the stack one at Changsha, this way, so the Chinese will stay within themselves in this sector to protect Nanyang and Sian (and the Chengchow and Loyang bases until threatened by a dangerously large force).  Down south, Chinese stacks are on the move between Changsha and Kukong to threaten two different IJ armies.
 
CenPac:  The Tarawa and Baker invasion troops begin loading at San Diego for the trip to Pear Harbor tonight.
 
SoPac:  All quiet around Pago Pago at the moment.  Allied reinforcements may be just five or six days out now.

[Cribtop]

You still hold Chengchow and Loyang!?! Did you re-take them or never lost them?

[Canoerebel]

I evacuated them very early in the war to establish my MLR in the forests east of Sian.  When Steve drew down his army in this theater to reinforce the Changsha sector, the Chinese advanced and reclaimed Chengchow, Loyang, and took Kaiefeng and Anyang.
 
I bet you Steve is hoping to trap the Chinese stack in such an advanced position by moving behind them towards Sian, but that's a move I'm waiting for.

[vettim89]

The more I read this, the more I am starting to get this little gnawing feeling in the back of my head that Steve may not be even thinking about the DEE right now. Maybe its all those missing unrestricted Divisions or maybe the lack of interference with the build up around southern Sumatra. Then again it my just be the Chef Boy-R-De Spagheti and Meatballs I ate last night gnawing at me

[Canoerebel]

Tim, it's a possibility I keep in mind.  But nearly anywhere else he goes he'd have to take the KB, so as long as the Japanese carriers are around I feel fairly certain that he's not about to toss a Hail Mary.
 
Here's a mystery that really puzzles me.  I got SigInt a few days ago that 4th Division is at Bataan, which fell months ago.  He certainly doesn't need the unit there, so it should have been moved to Manila weeks and weeks ago so that it would be in position to board transports (when available) and move out as expeditiously as possible.
 
This little tidbit and many others suggest that Steve isn't sure where he's going or what he wants to do.  What other little things, you ask?  Well, like leaving dozens of bases scattered over the map in Allied hands instead of promptly dealing with them.  Little bases in the Philippines, Celebes, Borneo and New Guinea that allow the Allies to conduct patrols deep in the enemy's rear.  Little bases like Tavoy that allow the Allies to toy with the idea of a major landing behind the Japanese lines in Burma.  Bases like Port Moresby, Hollandia, and Efate, which create potential weaknesses in what should already be an unbroken Japanese MLR.  And a failure to attend to key bases like Horn Island, Merauke, Darwin, Derby and Port Headland.
 
While I'm cognizant of Japan's power and the possibility that Steve might pull a masterful surprise, I think it's much more likely that he's floundering right now; vacillating between what priorities to assign Pago Pago, the Kuriles, the DEI, China, and Burma.