Guadalcanal AAR – A Beginner's Foray into MWiF

[rkr1958]

Polynesia.

Polynesia was the other sea area out of 7 possible sea areas that saw action. The combat went two rounds. In the first the IJN surprised the USN and chose to attack the 2 CAs in section. The USN had an LBA in 1. One of the two CAs was forced to abort.

Both the IJN and USN stayed for a second round. Both sides found each other. The IJN decided to use their air wing for fighter CAP and sent the USN PBY packing (i.e., aborted). The USN retreated after this round with the IJN staying and controlling the area.

[WIF_Killzone]

Fight where your enemy is weak. Good chance of surprise in the Bay of Bangal for Churchill though although protecting the transport should be paramount...get it out of there at the least. Same delio with the americans, get the transports out. Maybe set up their next turn and have the jps react to their move. If they were all in the same sea box I would stay but they could be torn apart piece meal.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

Fight where your enemy is weak. Good chance of surprise in the Bay of Bangal for Churchill though although protecting the transport should be paramount...get it out of there at the least. Same delio with the americans, get the transports out. Maybe set up their next turn and have the jps react to their move. If they were all in the same sea box I would stay but they could be torn apart piece meal.

So you'd pull the transports out from both areas; but keep the other forces there?

In the Bay of Bengal, there are only CVLs (and no CVs). And the RN is outnumber 5 to 1 in carriers. Why would you stay there?

[WIF_Killzone]

Tough choice, the chance of surprise is good and the brits would pick surface battle. The jps have five carriers and two bb's, no cruisers. The bb's are strong and of high value. The cv's are weak and of high value and they are all in the one box, not a great place to be. You could move the transports away and reinforce them with additional cruisers in a high sea box. The chance of surprise is good regardless and reduces the effectiveness of jp. If you get a surface battle (aka surprise), the bb's will take the first punishment and anything left over will hit the cv's. My point is try to use a mixed force, as you let the cruisers take the punishment, you need cruisers with 4,5,6 offensive most importantly a value and 6,7 defense to make an effective force that is able to take punishment and give it. Those cv's have a 0 offensive power in a surface battle, so really its just two bb's that wills surely get damaged (four cruisers = two bb's in the math department but the number of ships also counts (i.e lots of targets for the british guns)

If the brits had a couple more cv's then the allies would pick air and would have easy pickens against all those cv's protected by a couple of old bb's.

But to answer your question I would probably bail as well, it will all come down to search rolls, do you feel lucky, well do you punk (clint eastwood). Stay and see what happens but get the transport out of there at least.

[Courtenay]

The British should leave. Whether the Americans should depends on what sort of carrier air both sides have. You know; we don't. The Americans have no reason to stay and fight a losing battle; for that matter, neither do the Japanese. If you are in a pure attrition situation, do not feel bad about abandoning a sea zone.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

The British should leave. Whether the Americans should depends on what sort of carrier air both sides have. You know; we don't. The Americans have no reason to stay and fight a losing battle; for that matter, neither do the Japanese. If you are in a pure attrition situation, do not feel bad about abandoning a sea zone.

My carriers and transports in both areas (Marshalls and Bay of Bengal) are all disorganized because they supported my 2 invasion attempts last allied impulse. So they aren't going anywhere until the end of the turn or until something happens in combat. I do have 4 RN BB's, which haven't moved and which could be used to reinforce the British in the Bay of Bengal. Should I send them there or into the South China Sea to go after convoys? Or split them 2 in each area?

[WIF_Killzone]

Tough choice. For selfish reasons ( I want to see what happens), I say send them all to the bay as long as they can get into the three box. If the jps roll well and do a naval air, they can take the punishment, more or less, probably less. But if they get surprised, one round of combat will finish the damage or destroy the jp bb's and at least force an abort of the jp carriers, if not more.

You could always save the game before the search rolls, play the real battle, save that but retry surprise to see what happens, the revert back to the real saved game.

To go after the convoys you probably have to sail through them anyway? Its really risk vs reward isn't it.

[rkr1958]

November / December 1942. Allied Impulse #3.

The cumulative losses and damaged ships for this turn, which includes this and the past 2 impulses, are shown in the cap below.

Naval combat occurred in the South China Sea and the Marshall islands this impulse. The battle in the South China Sea was a single round affair; however, the battle in the Marshalls went 4, with both the USN and IJN each losing 1 of thier large carriers. The IJN also had a large carrier put out of action due to damage.

[rkr1958]

I decided to split the 4 RN BBs into 2 groups. I sent the first group of 2 to the Bay of Bengal (no contact) and the second group to the South China Sea. In the South China Sea both sides found each other and a surface battle ensued, with 3 of 4 RN ships aborted in exchange for the Yamato being aborted.

Both sides stayed; but failed to make contact after the first round.

[rkr1958]

In the Marshall islands, the USN and IJN engaged in 4 rounds of combat, including 3 naval air and 1 surface action. In addition to the loss of the USN CV Enterprise and the IJN CV Hiryu, the damaged and destroyed ships are shown in the cap below.

[rkr1958]

Both the USN and IJN chose to stay. Though outnumbered 4 to 1 in carriers the USN have 3 trump cards up their sleeve. The first of the 3 LBA on patrol with the Lexington, the second are two CVs in San Diego (which can make it to sea box 2) and the third are that MacArthur reorganized the Hornet and Saratoga (which was also forced to abort). So the USN, has 2 ready CVs and CAs at Pearl and 2 CVs in San Diego.

PS: I just found out that I made a grave error rebasing the Hornet and Saratoga at Pearl. I thought since I still have ships at sea in the Marshalls that the IJN couldn't launch a port attack against the ships in Pearl. Boy was I wrong! I think I've just given the Japanese 2 USN carriers. [&:]

PSS: After going through my move and the next impulse, it looks like I was only able to abort the carriers to Pearl or Kwaj, both of which are / would be subject to port attack, and are adjacent to the Marshalls. MWiF wouldn't let me move these carriers to any other port (e.g., US West Coast). Am I understanding this correctly?

[rkr1958]

November / December 1942. Japanese Impulse #4.

The Hornet and 1 convoy are destroyed in port. The Saratoga escapes undamaged and still organized.

[rkr1958]

The Japanese select a combine option and try to initiate combat in several areas. They are only successful in the Marshalls. The significant result was that they lost the CV Ryujo and the Soryu was damaged. The IJN did manage to force the Saratogoa and two LBA units to abort. The screen cap below shows the forces that are still left in the area.

The USN has three CVs available to move to this area impulse. The Saratogoa at Pearl can reach box 4 and the Yorktown and Essen in San Diego can reach box 2. I plan to move them in and finish this battle.

Honestly, the action in this area over the last 2 impulses has moved so fast that I'm not sure what I've messed up or if I've played the actions tactically correct. Besides, it way past my bedtime and that's not helping my thought process either.

[rkr1958]

November / December 1942. Allied Impulse #7.

The USN reinforced the Marshalls by moving the CV Saratoga and CA New Orleans from Pearl to sea box 4. And, the Lexington and Yorktown from the US West Coast to sea box 2.

During search, the Saratoga and New Orleans surprised the IJN fleet. Airstikes by the Saratoga managed to damage the Kaga and force the Akagi to abort. In return, the Saratoga was forced to abort and the New Orleans was damage.


The USN still having 2 CVs and a number of ships in the area decided to stay. The IJN with only a damaged carrier decided to withdraw (i.e., abort). The USN won control of the Marshalls. This was an epic naval battle.

[rkr1958]

In the Bay of Bengal, the RN initiated combat and was ecstatic when they rolled a 1 for search. Not to be outdone the IJN matched the RN's 1. In the ensuring battle the CV Formidable was sunk. The RN withdrew.

In the South China Sea, the RN managed to either sink or force only convoys at sea to abort.

The cap below shows the cumulative for this turn of lost and damaged units.

[rkr1958]

November / December 1942. Japanese Impulse #9.

The IJN opted for a naval option to readdress the lack of convoys in the South China Sea. They now have 6 convoy points there and 7 in the China Sea. So no more loss of Victory Points to the allies for not enough convoys (>=5 pts) in each area.

[rkr1958]

November / December 1942. Allied Impulse #11.

The only attempted action was from the CW who moved a sub to the South China Sea. The CW and Japaneses searches were unsuccessful.

This was the last impulse of this turn. Before I get to the victory totals below, here's a summary of the carriers remaining in play.

Damaged and Unavailable for the last turn:

USN: CV Saratoga
CW: CV Indomitable
IJN: CV Soruy, Kaga, Shokaku

I choose to repair the Saratoga, Indomitable and Sokaku (beginning of next turn). These repairs are symbolic since these carriers won't be available for next turn, which is the last turn of the game.

Available Carriers

USN: CV Essen, Yorktown & Lexington (Pearl). CV Lexington II (San Francisco)
CW: CV Illustrious (Darwin)
IJN: CVL Taiyo, Unjo, Chayg, Ryuho & Hosho (Tokyo). CV Hiryo, Shoho, Akagi & Zaikau (Truk). CVL Zuiho (at sea in the Central Pacific).

So the totals are;

USN: 4 CVs.
CW: 1 CV.
IJN: 4 CVs & 6 CVLs.

Victory Total Analysis.
The allies are leading by a score of 29 to 12, which is a margin of 17 VPs (substantial). To recap, the victory levels are; Decisive: 21+; Substantial: 11-20; Marginal: 6-10 and Draw: 0-5.

To achieve a draw, the Japanese need to net 12 VPs and for a victory, they need to net 23 VPs. So victory, is not possible; but avoiding a loss (i.e., draw) ise, though realistically unlikely. The 2 best possible, though remote, scenarios for netting 12+ VP's is by sinking 3 more allied CVs than losing or sinking 2 more and capturing a VP location (without giving any up). A tall order; but what else is the Japanese going to do other than to give up. And, we know from history that the Japanese vary rarely gave up.

The allies on the other hand, have a comfortable lead and will win unless they blow it or the Japanese get lottery winner lucky. The allies can't affect how luck the Japanese are but; they can control how reckless they (the allies) are this next turn. While it's tempting to go from Truk, an additional 5 VPs and a +21 margin (or a decisive lead); this in my opinion is reckless and would put the USN forces in a vulnerable position whether or not such an invasion, which is probably 60/40, would succeed.

The +17 VP margin, which gives the allies a substantial lead, means that the allies could lose 1 more CV (-4 VPs)
this next turn and still achieve a substantial victory. In fact, the allies could lose a victory location (-5 VPs) and still achieve that level of victory.

So, I think I'm going to make the smart play as the allied player and trust to luck to keep the substantial victory. Who knows, maybe luck will yield 2 more IJN CVs killed than the allies lose and deliver the allies that decisive victory. As the allied player, I suspect the Japanese player may be overly aggressive in an attempt to make up VPs.

[rkr1958]

January / February 1943. Allied Impulse #1.

The allies win the initiative roll and decide to move first. The weather is lousy except for a band of fine weather in the North Monsoon zone. Because of the lousy weather, the impulse will advance by +3, which may make this a short turn. The weather may conspire against the Japanese and make it easier for the allies to run out the clock in this game.

Both the CW and US choose a naval option. They both choose to keep their CVs, CAs and fast BBs (USN only) in reserve (i.e., in port) and move their older battleships out to sea to see what mischief they might cause. After movement, the CW has 1 CV and 10 CAs and the USN has 4 CVs, 2 BBs and 4 CAs in reserve.

[rkr1958]

One place where the allies tried to cause mischief with their BBs and successfully make contact with the Japanese was in the South China Sea. Things look to the favor the CW until the Japanese brought in a fighter and naval bomber. The result was that the 3 CW BBs and 1 sub were all forced to abort and leave the area. The end result was that the IJN successfully fended off an attack against their critical convoys in the China Sea.

The allies also tried to make contact with the Japanese in the China Sea and the Marianas but were unsuccessful.

[rkr1958]

January / February 1943. Japanese Impulse #4.

This is the first impulse for the Japanese this turn and it's already impulse #4. With time running out, the Japanese makes a series of desperate moves to turn the tide of the war in their favor. Though the weather prevents invasion in most zones, the IJN move invasion transports supported by carriers, battleships and cruisers into 3 areas. These moves are both to be in position to invade if the weather clears and to draw the allied navies (especially their carriers) into battle.

The three areas that the Japanese moved invasion fleets to are the Polynesa (Pago Pago), Bering Sea (Dutch Harbor) and the Marianas. Only in Polynesa and the Bering Sea is there any chance of successful landing. The invasion fleet in the Marianans is in place to go after Kwaj if the US pulls their 2 units there out to reinforce (or invade) elsewhere.

The current weather in Polynesa is storm. There's only a 30% chance that the weather will change to rain next impulse, which will allow for the invasion attempt.