MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

I wanted to double-check things, and I'm glad I did . . . if Italy and Germany both DOW China at the same time, they only get 1 US Entry roll (the same way the CW and France only get 1 when they first DOW Germany). So, Italy will hold off on its DOW of China for another impulse to improve the end result. Here are the DOWs the Axis made on impulse #1:

Germany Breaks the Pact with the USSR
Germany DOW USSR; USE-6 (+1 chit, 170 [1]
Germany DOW China; USE-5 (+6 chits, 503 [3], 592 [3], 915 [6], 18 [1], 25 [1], 553 [3])
Japan DOW USSR; USE-4 (+1 chit, 836 [4])
Japan DOW CW; USE-6 (+3 chits, 904 [5], 222 [2], 508 [3])
Japan DOW France; USE-4 (+3 chits, 635 [3], 128 [1], 7 [1])

That's a total of 14 fresh entry chits, 7 in each pool. The Germans added 18 in chit value (2.57 average), and the Japanese added 19 (2.71 average). The total of 37 averages to 2.64 per chit, and that's very close to what you should expect in 1941 (2.597826). As the Axis, I'm actually happy that there were several '1' chits added. That means that the Tension rolls have a better chance of doing very little to increase Tension. Additionally, Italy will get to add 5-6 more chits next impulse.

So, here are the new US Entry Pools and what it means for their DOW possibilities:

[Red Prince]

As far as the Soviet reserves go, this is what I came up with:

USSR called out its Reserves:
.....USSR sets up MIL in Kiev, Kuybyshev, Leningrad, Vladivostok, Moscow
.....USSR sets up MECH in Bryansk, GARR in Sevastapol, INF in Kharkov, Siberian INF in Kursk, INF in Chisinau, Odessa, Cernauti, CAV in Tiflis, Vitebsk, Stalino

The reason for the CAV in Tiflis is that the Persian front now only has Zhukov stacked with a 3-4 CAV, 2 INF in Baku (7-3, 4-3), and a 4-3 INF in Teheran. The only unit coming in next turn that would be useful here is a 5-3 white print INF. While the 3-5 CAV reserve doesn't offer much in combat factors, it can get into position in only 2 impulses, and it will be doubled by mountain hexes. Gotta work with what you've got . . .

I had a hard time choosing which of the 3 INF to place into the 3 Bessarabian cities. I suppose that it doesn't really matter in the end. If the Germans successfully Ground Strike the 2 stacks south of Chisinau, there's going to be trouble, anyway. A breakthrough on that middle stack would be particularly bad, but it will require a significant committment by Germany . . . so why not tempt them with an easy win at Chisinau instead? Any units that survive the Ground Strikes might have a chance to retreat behind the river line. Or they might not.

Ultimate Verdict: the Soviets are gonna get screwed.

[Red Prince]

Suddenly, the Soviet units available in the Force Pool seem to have multiplied with those pesky MIL.

[morgil]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


Ultimate Verdict: the Soviets are gonna get screwed.

Tole you :p

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: morgil

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


Ultimate Verdict: the Soviets are gonna get screwed.

Tole you :p

Yup! [;)]

The next round of battle is going to be held up a bit while I refresh myself on the rules concerning Notional Units, effects of Surprise, etc. I want to try to get the best out of a not-quite yet ready Japanese attack.

[composer99]

1941 Barbarossa is always difficult for the USSR. At least they don't yet have a large Italian airforce to deal with. And the US will still be in a few turns early.

[composer99]

Incidentally, the US entry chart shows that additional Axis entry actions will have no appreciable effect on entry. Indeed, the USSR can (maybe should?) declare war on Italy to try to bleed off a little entry.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Incidentally, the US entry chart shows that additional Axis entry actions will have no appreciable effect on entry. Indeed, the USSR can (maybe should?) declare war on Italy to try to bleed off a little entry.

That's what I was thinking in terms of the USSR making a DOW on Italy . . . try to clip a few of those chit off the top.

Additional chits will have an effect on entry, especially in Germany/Italy. As long as I can keep the Entry number above 60 for each pool, the USA has to generate Tension in order to get better odds of war. That's going to remove Entry Value when it shifts to tension, so the higher the better at this point. Also, if there end up being more low value chits, that means more chances of increasing tension by just a little bit.

The USA now also has to look at the Options it takes more carefully. It must take Resourceds to USSR this turn. That's good, it has an 80% chance of moving a chit. Unlike the Ja rolls, though, the Ge/It and All rolls can't be manipulated. The likely end-result is that USA will try to get a DOW on Japan first, then if/when that succeeds, it will try to manipulate Entry and Tension with the "automatic" chit moves. This might work, but the USA now probably doesn't dare DOW Japan with anything less than an 80% chance of success. There just aren't enough Tension chits to risk losing one now.

I'm betting that this insane plan to DOW everyone except the USA will keep them out of the war for an extra 2 turns, at least, and possibly as many as 4 turns. It's already bought Japan an extra turn of bleeding Oil away from the USA -- even as it makes a bid to replace that Oil before it's gone!
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Edit: Something I forgot to say in that first paragraph: the fact that the USA needs to generate Tension now in order to get in the war, and not Entry, means it only has one or maybe two chances each turn to do this. When the entry values are lower, it has a chance each impulse to be in a good position to make a DOW.

I also have to add that I've been playing this game in a way that is a little unfair to the USA. We all have, not just me, really. It's impossible to play it and pretend I don't know the values in the pools as the Axis.

[Red Prince]

After studying the rules for Invasions and Notionals and Surprise (oh, my!), I've deployed most of the Japanese fleet to support invasions, protect convoys from Soviet subs, maintain supply, and provide a minimal "early warning" system in the Pacific. I'm sure I've done it all wrong, 'cause it looks to me like a I've been running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

If I've calculated things correctly, I'll be able to put a unit into Truk, and make invasions at Rabaul, Colombo (or Trincomalee or somewhere in India), Batavia, both Oil hexes in Borneo, and . . . um . . . that is probably it. I'm counting on the Fine weather, Shore Bombardment and some CVP Ground Support to help out on a few of these (the ones I haven't correctly figured out the value of the Notional Units).
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Edit: Oh. Almost forgot. I also added a few Convoys to the China Sea and S. China Sea, in anticipation of additional resources, but I'm wondering if I've calculated it all correctly. I guess we shall see.
-----
So, here's the chicken, and watch him run, searching for his head:

[Red Prince]

At the end of last turn, worried about potential trouble soon in the Pacific, the Commonwealth returned to base 11 Cruisers from the Gulf of Guinea to Aden. Not expecting the trouble to come quite so soon, they left the small Dutch fleet in the S. China Sea, dropping from the 4 Box to the 3 Box. Okay, semi-stupid move here.

Well, trouble arrived early, but believe it or not, this should be considered a "lucky" result. By all rights, all 4 of these ships should be sitting on the bottom of the Ocean. Instead, 2 of them managed to survive the wild volleys from the Japanese:



In other Naval action, sports fans, the Japanese SUB fleet sent to the Coral Sea to cut the Pacific convoy pipeline had some trouble finding the unguarded enemy freighters. Part of that CA fleet that ended up in Aden is sure to be finding its way to the Coral Sea 0 Box when the Allied impulse comes around, I'd say. Oh, well.

The CW boys are stretched pretty thin right now, with more sea areas to protect than they have ships, it seems (it only seems that way, of course). Where are those damned Americans??? Late for the show, as usual. [:)] But only "fashionably" late this time (we hope).

[Red Prince]

I made a total of 5 Axis Ground Strikes this impulse, 4 German and 1 Japanese. This is why I didn't want to start with anything less than clear weather for my double-roll Ground Strikes in the southern parts of the Soviet Empire. Arctic rains made me hesitate before sending 2 of my 5-factor Stukas out on their bombing runs. Historically (see the Barbarossa AAR Orm and I played) I have not had terrific luck with Ground Strikes, but I figured 2 attempts per unit at half-value (which rounds up to 3) was a pretty good deal, so I sent the Stukas anyway and crossed my fingers.

I really really would have liked it if the Japanese raid succeeded, since Kunming will be very hard to take if China gets another unit into the city, but looking at the results below, I'll take what I got out of this round of Ground Strikes. Germany should easily be able to make good on the extra BP the Soviets gain for having enemy units in the country and making attacks.

View the results and be ready to be stunned. I know I was:



That's a total of 9 units out of 12 disorganized, and more importantly, 9 of 10 Soviets disorganized. And most of them can be put out of supply very easily (and probably isolated, too). To those who saw this coming, all I can say is I'm sorry this problem didn't get resolved sooner. However, there are mitigating factors:

1. The weather was rotten for the entire winter, which lasted all of 4 impulses for the Allies.
2. Even with double-rolled Ground Strikes, who could guess at a 90% success rate?
3. Even if this problem had been noticed in the middle of last summer, the Communist Chinese still had claims on the Soviet land moves.
4. The weather stopped being rotten at the absolute worst possible moment.
5. I'm much better at Offensive strategy than Defensive strategy, even with the help I've been getting from all of you.

Next post, I'll show exactly how dire the situation is for Russia . . .

[Red Prince]

Here's how deep they are in it. If Chisinau is taken, supply is temporarily cut to the NE stack. If I can find a way to get a 'B' result on the stack SW of Chisinau, too, the other stack ends up Isolated. Not sure if I have the units for it, but I might be able to find a way to take out everything from Chisinau to the Black Sea . . . this impulse! That's 18 BP right there, and that doesn't even include attacks to be made in the Baltics or later in the turn. [X(]

[Lothrim]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince
The USA now also has to look at the Options it takes more carefully. It must take Resourceds to USSR this turn. That's good, it has an 80% chance of moving a chit. Unlike the Ja rolls, though, the Ge/It and All rolls can't be manipulated. The likely end-result is that USA will try to get a DOW on Japan first, then if/when that succeeds, it will try to manipulate Entry and Tension with the "automatic" chit moves. This might work, but the USA now probably doesn't dare DOW Japan with anything less than an 80% chance of success. There just aren't enough Tension chits to risk losing one now.

I'm betting that this insane plan to DOW everyone except the USA will keep them out of the war for an extra 2 turns, at least, and possibly as many as 4 turns. It's already bought Japan an extra turn of bleeding Oil away from the USA -- even as it makes a bid to replace that Oil before it's gone!

You do not need to worry about the USA. High entry is good for USA.
Forget about choosing resources to USSR, you need to get into the war, not choose sub-optimal entry-actions.
The USSR needs help, but CW can lend those BP or resources.

It is a daring game now between japan and USA. USA should try to position its forces to make a devastating surprise attack.
Most effective would probably be chosing "Us reinforces the Philipines" and then send every plane with a nav-factor to the philipines in hopes of constructing a "Reverse pearl harbour". I would probably also put 2-3 CV's in harms way just to threaten Japan.
Japan will go "hmm... if he rolls a 5 now, my fleet dies. If I declare war, I will sink 2CVS and counter the threat"

This turn Japan might skip declaring the war since the risk is about 40%, but in MJ USA has 2 more tension chits (probably) and a much longer turn length to construct a threat against Japan.

Being a war with Japan causes all entry actions to be rolled for, thus you can get a lot of tension chits at that point bringing your chance of declaring war on Germany much closer.

The green wave is closer than you might think

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

ORIGINAL: Red Prince
The USA now also has to look at the Options it takes more carefully. It must take Resourceds to USSR this turn. That's good, it has an 80% chance of moving a chit. Unlike the Ja rolls, though, the Ge/It and All rolls can't be manipulated. The likely end-result is that USA will try to get a DOW on Japan first, then if/when that succeeds, it will try to manipulate Entry and Tension with the "automatic" chit moves. This might work, but the USA now probably doesn't dare DOW Japan with anything less than an 80% chance of success. There just aren't enough Tension chits to risk losing one now.

I'm betting that this insane plan to DOW everyone except the USA will keep them out of the war for an extra 2 turns, at least, and possibly as many as 4 turns. It's already bought Japan an extra turn of bleeding Oil away from the USA -- even as it makes a bid to replace that Oil before it's gone!

You do not need to worry about the USA. High entry is good for USA.
Forget about choosing resources to USSR, you need to get into the war, not choose sub-optimal entry-actions.
The USSR needs help, but CW can lend those BP or resources.

The CW can't lend them until the USA chooses this option.

It is a daring game now between japan and USA. USA should try to position its forces to make a devastating surprise attack.
Most effective would probably be chosing "Us reinforces the Philipines" and then send every plane with a nav-factor to the philipines in hopes of constructing a "Reverse pearl harbour". I would probably also put 2-3 CV's in harms way just to threaten Japan.
Japan will go "hmm... if he rolls a 5 now, my fleet dies. If I declare war, I will sink 2CVS and counter the threat"

This turn Japan might skip declaring the war since the risk is about 40%, but in MJ USA has 2 more tension chits (probably) and a much longer turn length to construct a threat against Japan.

Being a war with Japan causes all entry actions to be rolled for, thus you can get a lot of tension chits at that point bringing your chance of declaring war on Germany much closer.

The green wave is closer than you might think

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I wanted to double-check things, and I'm glad I did . . . if Italy and Germany both DOW China at the same time, they only get 1 US Entry roll (the same way the CW and France only get 1 when they first DOW Germany). So, Italy will hold off on its DOW of China for another impulse to improve the end result. Here are the DOWs the Axis made on impulse #1:

Germany Breaks the Pact with the USSR
Germany DOW USSR; USE-6 (+1 chit, 170 [1]
Germany DOW China; USE-5 (+6 chits, 503 [3], 592 [3], 915 [6], 18 [1], 25 [1], 553 [3])
Japan DOW USSR; USE-4 (+1 chit, 836 [4])
Japan DOW CW; USE-6 (+3 chits, 904 [5], 222 [2], 508 [3])
Japan DOW France; USE-4 (+3 chits, 635 [3], 128 [1], 7 [1])

That's a total of 14 fresh entry chits, 7 in each pool. The Germans added 18 in chit value (2.57 average), and the Japanese added 19 (2.71 average). The total of 37 averages to 2.64 per chit, and that's very close to what you should expect in 1941 (2.597826). As the Axis, I'm actually happy that there were several '1' chits added. That means that the Tension rolls have a better chance of doing very little to increase Tension. Additionally, Italy will get to add 5-6 more chits next impulse.

Yeah this is really gamey but its a well known tactic made possible by the revelation of chits when you pass war appropriations. All the Allies need to separately DoW Liberia. Russia should DoW Italy for sure so that Italian planes don't show up and get a Surprise impulse on them. The target should be to get the Entry down to the 49 to 54 range.

[Centuur]

Now, if you want to opt for some "gamey" play by the Axis: next DoW impulse you might DoW all neutral minors, who haven't got an army and a resource/factory. This might increase US entry even more.

As the USSR, he's got bad luck with those ground strikes. However: do not despair. It's raining and there is a big chanche that it will keep on raining in the Arctic (or worse). That slows down the German advance.

So let's first see at how the German attacks are going to end and than carefully assess the situation before moving USSR units. The key things are: stalling the attack, without the important units (all white prints with 7 factors or more and all ARM/MECH/HQ's and the airforce) getting killed.

If possible, railmove a unit to Murmansk (CAV preferable) or get the British HQ there and start moving it towards Petsamo. It is a minor port, a resource and you can move to the south with the British into Finland along the road with a couple of units. The Finns haven't put a unit there (or did they correct this), so they can't reinforce this area. And how nice it is going to be if the British can prevent Mannerheim from attacking Leningrad... If you rail a Russian factory to Murmansk, the CW have only to use 1 CP to transport it for you. That's economics...

Defense against Japan comes down on two things: first: India, Australia and New Zealand should stay British. Second: start harassing Japanese convoys. Flying and sailing costs oil, and that's the point where the Japanese is vulnerable. SUB's are very good for this, but I also want to keep the Japanese on the edge by sometimes moving a couple of fast long range CA or CL into a sea-area, where there is a Japanese CP without a covering force. Just to get the Japanese to fly, sail and so on...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I wanted to double-check things, and I'm glad I did . . . if Italy and Germany both DOW China at the same time, they only get 1 US Entry roll (the same way the CW and France only get 1 when they first DOW Germany). So, Italy will hold off on its DOW of China for another impulse to improve the end result. Here are the DOWs the Axis made on impulse #1:

Germany Breaks the Pact with the USSR
Germany DOW USSR; USE-6 (+1 chit, 170 [1]
Germany DOW China; USE-5 (+6 chits, 503 [3], 592 [3], 915 [6], 18 [1], 25 [1], 553 [3])
Japan DOW USSR; USE-4 (+1 chit, 836 [4])
Japan DOW CW; USE-6 (+3 chits, 904 [5], 222 [2], 508 [3])
Japan DOW France; USE-4 (+3 chits, 635 [3], 128 [1], 7 [1])

That's a total of 14 fresh entry chits, 7 in each pool. The Germans added 18 in chit value (2.57 average), and the Japanese added 19 (2.71 average). The total of 37 averages to 2.64 per chit, and that's very close to what you should expect in 1941 (2.597826). As the Axis, I'm actually happy that there were several '1' chits added. That means that the Tension rolls have a better chance of doing very little to increase Tension. Additionally, Italy will get to add 5-6 more chits next impulse.

Yeah this is really gamey but its a well known tactic made possible by the revelation of chits when you pass war appropriations. All the Allies need to separately DoW Liberia. Russia should DoW Italy for sure so that Italian planes don't show up and get a Surprise impulse on them. The target should be to get the Entry down to the 49 to 54 range.

Why Liberia? Don't they have a unit these days?

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Now, if you want to opt for some "gamey" play by the Axis: next DoW impulse you might DoW all neutral minors, who haven't got an army and a resource/factory. This might increase US entry even more.

As the USSR, he's got bad luck with those ground strikes. However: do not despair. It's raining and there is a big chanche that it will keep on raining in the Arctic (or worse). That slows down the German advance.

So let's first see at how the German attacks are going to end and than carefully assess the situation before moving USSR units. The key things are: stalling the attack, without the important units (all white prints with 7 factors or more and all ARM/MECH/HQ's and the airforce) getting killed.

If possible, railmove a unit to Murmansk (CAV preferable) or get the British HQ there and start moving it towards Petsamo. It is a minor port, a resource and you can move to the south with the British into Finland along the road with a couple of units. The Finns haven't put a unit there (or did they correct this), so they can't reinforce this area. And how nice it is going to be if the British can prevent Mannerheim from attacking Leningrad... If you rail a Russian factory to Murmansk, the CW have only to use 1 CP to transport it for you. That's economics...

Defense against Japan comes down on two things: first: India, Australia and New Zealand should stay British. Second: start harassing Japanese convoys. Flying and sailing costs oil, and that's the point where the Japanese is vulnerable. SUB's are very good for this, but I also want to keep the Japanese on the edge by sometimes moving a couple of fast long range CA or CL into a sea-area, where there is a Japanese CP without a covering force. Just to get the Japanese to fly, sail and so on...

Gamey, sure, but I'm not going to dow minors the Axis can't actually make war against.

I plan on getting the New and Improvied BEF into Murmansk ASAP, so that the Soviets don't have to do it themselves.

I debated making a bid for New Zealand, but decided against it. Australia, too, is safe. India may come under fire eventually, though, so the CW has to make sure it covers the area. At the moment, all of the Japanese Convoys are well protected, but that will change over time.
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A shortage of convoys had the CW storing Oil in Batavia and Telok Betong. This was truly a surprise attack (made possible only by the weather), so Japan is likely to get some free Oil here. I don't think I've shown this form yet, and here's a good example of it. It's the Include Notional Unit form, and it basically just shows you the odds with and without the Notional Unit. Remember, though, that this happens before Shore Bombardment and/or Ground Support is added:

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Now, if you want to opt for some "gamey" play by the Axis: next DoW impulse you might DoW all neutral minors, who haven't got an army and a resource/factory. This might increase US entry even more.

Hence the suggestion of Liberia (Edit; by the Allies). The Central and South America minors can't be done as they effect VPs. European neutral minors give stuff to the axis. I think that leaves only Liberia.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince
Gamey, sure, but I'm not going to dow minors the Axis can't actually make war against.

And Germany and Italy can fight China??? Get off the moral high ground and get in the trenches here! This is war g@wd@mit! [:)]

To be clear, the Allies need to do it before the axis does. If they find ways to reduce the entry level, they can't allow the axis to drive it back up.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Now, if you want to opt for some "gamey" play by the Axis: next DoW impulse you might DoW all neutral minors, who haven't got an army and a resource/factory. This might increase US entry even more.

Hence the suggestion of Liberia (Edit; by the Allies). The Central and South America minors can't be done as they effect VPs. European neutral minors give stuff to the axis. I think that leaves only Liberia.

Yemen and Tibet come into mind. I don't know if there are any more of these obscure nations around, with the unified map...