Shattered Vow

[Athius]

Canoerebel, what kind of zero's was he deploying? (5B or 5c's? ) And what do you think of their performance?

[Canoerebel]

Athius:  The combat report just says that they are A6M5.  These were based on the IJN's big carriers, so whatever they are they would be Miller's best models.
 
JohnDillworth:  I don't think these kamikazee attacks were from kami-dedicated squadrons.  There were just a few kami strikes, so I think they were naval strike missiosn in which a few pilots individually decided to give their lives for the emporer.
 
Galahad:  I lost two APA during the four day air/naval battle - one was heavily damaged by strike aircraft and later sunk by a sub.  The other was a victim of the naval clash.  The remaining damaged APA (perhaps five or six) suffered light to moderate damage.  I'll need a little time to get them to the yards at Sydney, but once there they'll repair fairly quickly.
 
The 2nd Battle of Morotai was a huge, huge battle.  Miller's ships and aircraft performed well, both sides suffered considerable damage, and yet...the Allies weren't really fighting with the first team.  More than anything else, I think that's why I am shrugging off the losses as a strategic Allied victory.  The Japanese came with their first team carriers, combat ships, and LBA.  The Allies countered with first team air but junior varsity carriers and combat ships.
 
Here's Miller's email summary of the battle: "I have mulled over the last couple of turns and perhaps it has not worked out as bad as I had thought. I have put a big dent in your CVE cover for any upcoming invasion, and it will take you a week or two to regroup your transport fleets which will be scattered all over the place at the moment........Just a shame I could'nt sink few more of those APAs....."
 
Due to the arrival of five CVE at Darwin while the battle was ongoing, the Allies are actually stronger in CVEs in theater than they were before (not as strong as they WOULD have been had they not lost carriers, of course).  As for the transports, the losses suffered, which were pretty heavy, were "forward ships" the Allies were using to shuffle troops around as I prepare for the next offensive.  The bulk of the Allied transport fleet lies at Darwin and Boela, so this battle has little impact on Allied lift capacity.  In fact, 41st Division aboard transports at Morotai will proceed to Sidate (adjacent to Manado) tomorrow, as will transports at Sorong loaded with an Aussie brigade and transports at Boela loaded with 6th Marines.
 
In theater, the Allies currently have:  four fleet CV (Victorious, Saratoga, Bunker Hill and Intrepid) with Hornet due in about ten days; seven CVL with Bataan accompanying Hornet; and 17 CVE.  Two other CVE damaged in the recent battle will need yard time - one is lightly damaged the other moderately heavy.  The battle didn't involved BBs.  The Japanese suffered further serious attrition to their CA/CL fleet that they can't afford and heavy losses to DD.  The Allies lost some DD and CL, but considerably less than the Japanese.
 
IJN power was thus seriously eroded.  The battle resulted in the Allies having a comparatively stronger surface combat capability.  That is, of course, important in upcoming naval engagements and contested amphibious operations.  Miller needs to maintain enough escorts for his carriers, so it seems probable that he'll have to carefully consider before committing his combat ships in future engagements.  That would be great.
 
The wildcard is air power.  If, as John Burns opines, the Japanese can constantly replace heavy battle losses...well, that's going to be a tough thing for the Allies (and certainly non-historical).  The Allies still cannot go face to face with the Japanese in air combat.  But the Allies have to advance, so we'll take whatever the game dishes.
 
 

[Q-Ball]

I think Miller was ahead until the surface phase; he can replace all those planes, but cruisers/DD losses hurt, particularly the cruisers. The Japanese Heavy CAs are in many ways the core of the IJN surface fleet, so taking down 2-3 of them is important.

[Canoerebel]

I've never played the game as the Japanese, so I only have a general idea as to IJN cruiser strength.  Here's a ist of what's confirmed sunk to date (and any of you IJ players please chime in as to how hard-hit you think Miller is in this regard):
 
CA:  Maya, Kinugasa, Furutaka, Chokai, Chikuma, Atago, Suzuya, Aoba, Myoko, Hagura (with Nachi a possibility).
CS:  Chitose
CL:  13 total

[Canoerebel]

3/22/44 and 3/23/44
 
Miller disengaged, so things were a bit quieter, but subs were active.
 
Mutual Destruction:  Japanese subs put a TT in CA Baltimore, which had been heading to the front lines, an CL St. Louis, which was retiring after taking light damage in the big battle.  But the Allies got the better of things, for Grouper put two TT in CVL Mizuho, which had taken one TT in the battle, and Tarpon put two TT into CL Ninoru.
 
Celebes:  The bevy of transports ferrying troops to Sidate weren't molested by enemy air or ships.  In a few days the Allies will have 2000+ AV present and will move on Manado.  I hope this will be sufficient to take the base, but if not another 500 AV 100% prepped will be available.
 
Thailand/Burma:  Still no sign of the Japanese pulling out of Tavoy and Bangkok although both cities are semi-isolated and will become tougher for the Japanese to supply.  The Allies are bringing troops forward as quickly as the road allow.  Enough Allied troops will be present to advance into the Tavoy hex in about four days.  As for Bangkok, I want to strengthen the ring of troops around the city.  Then, when sufficient base forces arrive at forward bases like Ayuthia, Pisanoluke, and Rahaeng, the air campaign will begin in earnest.

[Canoerebel]

Wow, I just opened a fresh Scenario Two to see how many CA the Japanese have and get during the game.  The total is just 18.  Miller has lost at least ten and perhaps 11 (if very badly damaged Nachi went under). 
 
He has most of the KB intact, so won't he have some tough decisions in allocating his remaining CA for carrier escort and combat task forces?
 
He also only has a handful of BB left, so I think Miller is really hurting in terms of major combat ships.

[Smeulders]

I'm guessing you will use this information to your advantage very well, but may I suggest you go raiding in other areas with surface ships. Any convoys you engage will be very lightly defended by surface ships, as he simply doesn't have many left. This will also force him to divert many good strike craft to other areas as they must protect his shipping if you go raiding.

[Canoerebel]

Smeulders, good idea.  I'll form some CL/DD TFs and see what I can do.
 
Some final "macro" thoughts about the recent Battle of Morotai:
 
1)  My decisions are certainly subject to second-guessing.  I did not think Miller would chance the massed LBA around Morotai, so I came up with the "Redoubt Morotai" defense - I sent all my ships in the area there, along with plenty of combat ships, and had something close to 400 first-quality fighters available in that hex and the surrounding two hexes.  I thought it was enough.  I was wrong.  Nor did I think Miller would send combat ships into Morotai, but I felt sure the number I had on hand was sufficient for whatever happened.
 
2)  Miller's decisions are subject to second-guessing, but I think he can be exonerated for creatively using his force before the odds become much worse.  However, at several points in the game he has launched big raids against Allied bases - Darwin and Morotai being the best examples.  As we all know, if you have to fight it's helpful to fight in and over your own base where your damaged ships can immediately take refuge and many pilots of downed aircraft live to fight again.  At some point soon the Allies have to stick their necks out a bit to cross open waters to Mindanao and Miller probably would have been better served using the time to build up his defenses, then striking at the beachhead when the time came.
 
3)  At some point in the game the Allies ought to (have to) "break the back" of the Japanese - ie, administer a thrashing so severe that the Japanese can't recover.  At that point, the Allies can move forward at their own choosing, limitied mainly by logistics rather than the Japanese military.  We're not there yet, by any means.  Japanese air and carrier forces remain very strong.  But we're very close in terms of combat ships.

[paullus99]

Losing those cruisers is bad - they are quick (faster than his BBs) & really put up good numbers in surface actions or as CV escorts. He's going to miss them when you further attrit his air wings & you take on the KB next time around.

I think he's really going to be surprised when you just keep moving forward like these battles never occurred. You're losing ships you can afford to lose, while he is really putting himself behind the eight-ball every time his surface fleet takes a hit. If you can sucker him into a repeat performance (and your continued advance makes that fairly likely, if he wants to try to make it more expensive for you), and have additional "A" team SCTF & your carriers at hand, you might just put a stake in him.

[JohnDillworth]

JohnDillworth: I don't think these kamikazee attacks were from kami-dedicated squadrons. There were just a few kami strikes, so I think they were naval strike missiosn in which a few pilots individually decided to give their lives for the emporer.

Since Miller is training, and losing, hundreds of dive bomber and torpedo bomber pilots each time he attacks I wonder if if would be a valid strategy to load up the KB with 1/3 crack fighter pilots and 2/3 kamikazes? Typically the first strike does most of the damage. is it quicker to train kamikazes? do they need to be carrier trained? Probably will ask this in the main thread after removing identifying information.
thanks

[Canoerebel]

3/24/44 and 3/25/44
 
JohnDillworth:  I don't like the sound of that, so I hope my opponent doesn't get any ideas from your idea.

Celebes:  Four days of unmolested landings at Sidate, thank goodness.  Most of the transports, including five or six of the precious APA, should be able to retire to Morotai or Ternate.  The Allies have about 2100 AV ashore, now, and will move on Manado to see if that's enough to reduce and capture that critical base.  If not, I'll bring in more troops.

Mindanao:  I'm pretty sure Manado will fall in the not-too-distant future.  The Allies will now begin organizing for the invasion of Mindanao.  This won't be nearly the leap that it would have been previously, because the Allies have a several big airbases stretching from Talaud Island to Sidate (and including Manado, a level seven, when it falls).  Mindanao is the key, because from there the Allies have no "big leaps" until after the fall of Luzon.

Subs:  Miller flooded the Ceram Sea with subs hoping to pick off cripples after the big battle.  Over these two days he got an LST and three xAK.  I think Allied ASW has picked off five or six IJN subs over the past four to six days.

Thailand:  5223 Provisional Tanks and 23rd Indian division brushed aside 7th Royal Thai Army/A two hexes east of Bangkok.  One or both of these units will now move west, further constricting the noose around Bangkok.  It is going to be fun to see how Miller handles Bangkok.

China: The IJA failed in a deliberate attack at Nanning.  This weakening of the Japanese army there is fortunate since the Chinese have about 3000 AV set to arrive in Nanning in a week.  If the Chinese blow through Nanning (that's a big IF given the quality of Chinese troops), it will threaten Vietnam from the north while the British, Indians, and Africans are threatening from the west.

[Canoerebel]

3/26/44 and 3/27/44
 
Things are beginning to take shape as the Allies prepare for the next big pushes:

Celebes:  The advance 900 AV have arrived at Manado and will try a probing bombardment tomorrow.  Another 1200 AV will arrive tomorrow.

Mindanao:  Dadjangas is held by three units totaling less than 10k.  The Allies have about 500 AV fully prepped, so I think I'll proceed with that as the target (as opposed to a lightning raid on much more lightly held but more distant from my airfields Cotabato).  Then the Allies can land the army prepped for Davao which doesn't look strongly defended.  But Cagayan is strongly held.  I don't mind a big land battle as Allied 4EB and a wealth of strong units should make it profitable. As they take and develop major airbases on Mindanao, the Allies will look for opportunties to take some of the good island bases to the south and some of the north Borneo bases. 

Luzon:  Patrols report the KB at Manila.

Thailand:  The Allies control every road into Bangkok.  Don't yet know whether Miller intends to stand and fight or to break out one way or another.  All of the "other" Allied army have arrived adjacent to Tavoy and will move into that city to see if taking it is a possibility.

China:  A strongly reinforced Chinese army routed a small Japanese army at Liuchow.  Most of this Chinese army will now advance to Nanning to assist a smaller army there.  Some of the Liuchow Chinese will move SE to sniff for weaknesses around the cities on and near the coast.

[Canoerebel]

3/28/44 and 3/29/44
 
Celebes:  The probing bombardment shows 900 IJA AV at Manado - 38th Division, two brigades, and a bunch of engineers and base forces.  The Allies have about 2100 AV, so I'll try a probing attack tomorrow.  If it doesn't appear that this force can reduce the defenses and take the base within a reasonable amount of time, I'll bring in some of the reserve.
 
Subs:  Miller flooded the Ceram Sea in conjunction with the last battle.  The subs have been a nuisance and this turn put single TTs into an AKA and an APA.  Allied combat TFs have heavily damaged or sunk a number of IJN subs in this region over the past ten days. 
 
Superforts:  The first four 7-plane squadrons arrived at Aden a couple of days ago.  The game won't permit them to depart Aden by air - so I've loaded them aboard xAK for the trip to Karachi.
 
Stranded Dock Ship:  I forgot to mention previously, but months ago one of those specialized dock repair ships arrived at Portland.  I wanted to move it, but it's apparently to big to navigate the river.  So it's stuck in Portland for the duration.
 
Damaged BBs:  After six long months, BB Prince of Wales is ready for action.  She will accompany CV Constellation and newly arrived CV Yorktown to the front lines.  BB Alabama will arrive in Capetown in about eight days.  BB Massachusetts is still reducing SYS damage at Perth.  She'll leave for Capetown in a few weeks.
 
Allied Progress in the DEI (or a seeming lack thereof):  It's been six months since the 1st Battle of the Morotai Sea.  Since then, the Allies have picked off a few "easy" targets - Port Moresby and Koepang; a few "medium" targets - Ambon, Namlea, Manikwari, and Talaud Island; and one tough target - Ternate; with a second, Manado, in the works.  The Allies haven't stuck their noses out very far due in part to carrier disparity.  Rather than taking chances, the Allies elected to stay close to LBA and to expand and consolidate their hold on the islands in the eastern DEI.  As a result, the upcoming invasion of Mindanao won't be nealry the leap forward it might have been, for the Allies will have at least four air bases within the range of four to six hexes.  The relatively quiet period is about to end.
 
Allied Progress Elsewhere:  The funny thing is that the most noticeable Allied success has been in Burma/Thailand, which I had thought would be a quiet theater.  The Allies have surrounded Bangkok and hold at least one good road leading east to Vietnam.  It takes time to bring troops forward over the yellow road system, but the Allies are making good progress here.

[JohnDillworth]

Superforts: The first four 7-plane squadrons arrived at Aden a couple of days ago. The game won't permit them to depart Aden by air - so I've loaded them aboard xAK for the trip to Karachi.

Let the frustration begin! First off they have to be shipped to Karachi, in real life they flew in. Later, you will have to dismantle them and ship them by train from the East Coast to the west coast. The crews have low experience and they are operationally very delicate. Most of these will spend the war under repair. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

John, you are a voice of good cheer and optmism....[:D]
 
I know the Superforts require alot of maintenance, so I don't expect a whole lot out of them.  But I think they will require Miller to pull some of his fighters back to defend vulnerable targets, so that will be helpful.
 
The probing deliberate attack at Manado tomorrow is very important because the Allies are nearly ready to move on Mindanao, but I first want Manado for its airfield.  This attack should tell me if the defenses are weakened due to the extended bombing campaign.  I think Miller is pulling out cadres - that would be good for the Allies too.  The Allies have 2300 AV vs. 900 AV.  Go, boys, go!

[witpqs]

You miss the true value of the B-29: Naval Search!

[:D]

[Canoerebel]

Well, those long range B-24 reconnaissance squadrons are nearly as good!
 
But I did use B-29 for nav patrol in WitP and I'm sure I'll do so in this game.

[Canoerebel]

3/30/44 and 3/31/44
 
Celebes:  Well...pooh!  The probing Allied deliberate attack suggests that the Allies need to commit the reserve force.  Here are the results:
 
Ground combat at Manado (75,99)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 53945 troops, 1015 guns, 1030 vehicles, Assault Value = 2325
Defending force 30622 troops, 291 guns, 137 vehicles, Assault Value = 943
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5 
Allied adjusted assault: 2344  
Japanese adjusted defense: 4081
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      2227 casualties reported
         Squads: 4 destroyed, 155 disabled
         Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 132 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 77 disabled
      Vehicles lost 38 (0 destroyed, 38 disabled)
 
Allied ground losses:
      3979 casualties reported
         Squads: 25 destroyed, 181 disabled
         Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 552 disabled
         Engineers: 5 destroyed, 72 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 156 (4 destroyed, 152 disabled) 
 
Assaulting units:
    41st Infantry Division
    22nd (East African) Brigade
    2nd Australian Brigade
    16th Chindit Brigade
    8th Marine Regiment
    6th Marine Regiment
    53rd British Brigade
    754th Tank Battalion
    767th Tank Battalion
    1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
    4th British Brigade
    34th Infantry Regiment
    17th Australian Brigade
    131st Combat Engineer Regiment
    145th Infantry Regiment
    14th Chindit Brigade
    23rd Chindit Brigade
    2nd USMC Tank Bn /1
    16th Australian Brigade
    102nd Combat Engr Rgt /1
    1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
    I US Amphib Corps
    131st Field Artillery Battalion
 
Defending units:
    38th Division
    19th Ind. Engineer Regiment
    34th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    33rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
    9th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    62nd JNAF AF Unit
    66th JNAF AF Unit
    72nd JAAF AF Bn
    59th JNAF AF Unit
    24th Field AF Construction Battalion
    1st Base Force
    2nd Air Div /227
    3rd Air Army /79
    16th Field AF Const Bn /194
 
Tavoy:  On the other hand, the probing Allied bombardment at Tavoy suggests the defenses may be fairly weak (especially since many of these units were roughed up during the route from Rangoon and Moulmein):
 
Ground combat at Tavoy (54,60)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 570 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1620
Defending force 24193 troops, 280 guns, 205 vehicles, Assault Value = 473 
Allied ground losses:
      11 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
 
Assaulting units:
    7th New Chinese Corps
    26th Indian Division
    XXXIII Corps Engineer Battalion
    36th Div Engineer Battalion
    22nd New Chinese Division
    200th Chinese Division
    8th New Chinese Corps
    36th Chinese Division
    72nd British Brigade
    2nd Reserve Division
    29th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
    21st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
    Y' Force
    31st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
 
Defending units:
    60th Infantry Brigade
    17th Infantry Regiment
    12th Ind.Infantry Brigade
    23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
    3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    16th AA Regiment
    11th Air Fleet
    11th Shipping Engineer Regiment
    41st Air Defense AA Regiment
    25th Army
    55th Mountain Gun Regiment
    41st Air Defense AA Battalion
    15th JAAF AF Bn
    14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
    44th Field AA Battalion
    5th Field Artillery Regiment
    2nd Army
    21st Army

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, those long range B-24 reconnaissance squadrons are nearly as good!

But I did use B-29 for nav patrol in WitP and I'm sure I'll do so in this game.

If you're talking about the Navy PB4Y units, YES, they are like GOLD! I want 10 of those units! With regular range of 26, they can see a Loooooong way away!

[Canoerebel]

Orders issued and things are getting very, very busy in the northern DEI.  I have alot of transports loading and on the move - and plenty of fighters and combat ships to provide protection - but now would be a disastrous time for Miller to attack (if he were as successful as last time):

Invasion of Dadjangas, Mindanao:  Troops at Ternate and Morotai are loading.  I have just about decided to proceed even though Manado remains in Axis hands.  It's a short hop and the Allied-held islands in between can offer a fair bit of CAP.  The defense is three units less than 10k; the assault wave will consist of 158 Sep Infantry, 1st USMC Tanks; 185 Infantry, 2 USMC Engineers, 7th Marines, and 25th Oz Brigade.

Carriers:  Patrols report the KB still at Manila.  The Allies have formed seven carrier TFs at Darwin with another on the way in the Torres Straits:  Two each with a fleet CV and three CVL; one with a fleet CV and two CVL; one with a fleet CV and one CVL; and four 4-CVE escort TFs.  The fleet carriers will sail around the western tip of Ceram, hoping to avoid known sub concentrations; the CVE will proceed by the eastern tip of Ceram. The carriers will be assist in the Dadjangas invasion, but will remain within the LBA CAP umbrella.

Manado, Celebes:  A big reinforcement convoy is loading troops at Morotai and will make the short hop to Sidate in two or three days.  This one is exposed a bit.  However, the Allies landed a bunch of HQ, base force, and support personnel at Sidate, which is nearly a level five airfield, so it can now handle most of it's CAP needs in-house.

Makassar:  A CL/DD TF will raid this port tonight, targeting some reported merchant shipping.

Bay of Bengal:  The Port Blair invasion force left Ceylon a week ago, but I pulled it back after getting a whiff of Frances torpedo bombers in the region.  So I sent a small BB/CA TF to Moulmein, under plenty of CAP, to act as a "magnet."  Sure enough, here came the Frances - the CAP downed perhaps 20 to 30, but one BB took minimal damage from a torpedo.  In the meantime, patrols reported a Mini-KB steaming north from the Georgetown vicinity.  This is something I've been watching for for months - I figured the lure of RN BBs would be strong.  I don't have any way of countering carriers at the moment, so my ships will pull back.

Tavoy:  The Allies will try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.

China:  Troops should be in place to attack at Nanning within within three days.