I ignore AV from an Allied standpoint. IE, I ignore AV once Japan's lost it's shot at it. (For the record: I love the tension created by the possibility of a Japanese AV!)
Once a game gets into 1944 or 1945, both sides have done pretty well and both sides probably know "who the winner is" no matter what the victory points say. I suppose if I have a game going into late '44 in which the Allies are really thrashing Japan, I might then look at AV to see if there's a feasible way of doing it that doesn't totally trash game play (IE, enjoyment of the contest).
But I've never looked at the game as: hmm, I need 2:1 in 1945, so I get x points for Manila, Y for Hong Kong, Z for Singapore, let's get them on this date with only this many planes lost, this many ships lost, while scoring this many strat points against Japan, etc. By that point I'm focusing on Manila because it gives me a base to prosecute the war against the Home Islands, not because of its VP.
Very sensible.. After all, what point other than enjoyment is there? Many of us are married and it would probably be a lousy way to attract women anyway. If someone has worked out a way to get paid for playing AE I would like to know about it.
I think from my perspective, the issue of ground unit surrenders is something worth your consideration. I do not think it puts the game in even the slightest doubt, but I think given your read of your opponent, you might have been able to have more resources available to be pushing harder against him at this moment. Because I'm ready both AARs, I won't comment on anything recent to avoid accidental opsec breaches as best as possible, but there was, I think, a fairly good example earlier. This is not meant as a criticism, per se, but rather a point that stood out to me at the time.
I'm thinking more of, say, Port Blair and the 3 or 4 Indian brigades that surrendered there (I forget the exact context) in the aftermath of the very-long-delayed fall of Singapore. I remember thinking at the time that two probably would have forced a very similar commitment from him, leaving you two more for your operations into the jungle at the time without letting him take it before the fall of Singapore. Even disbanding one of those brigades to accelerate the conversion to 42 squads and rebuild the raw av of your Indian divisions faster would have suited your own strategic goals better, or at least so my instincts as an observer said. Yes, you have absolutely managed to make John dance to your tune in a lot of theaters, but despite your admirable opportunism, I think the criticism that you have traded a lot of your early game squad pools for time is worth taking seriously, even if your overall assessment of the game seems to be accurate. It's very easy to be an other-side-of-the-couch armchair general (they need to make couches with back seats, I guess, for the purpose of making my metaphor better).
Is your assessment that those sacrifices to your #3 or 4 bottleneck resource in 1942(carriers, then aircraft, then either squads or combat transports, depending on your method of approach and attritional losses, imo) were all necessary in order keep him from areas that would have harmed your own eventual route of advance? You have a read on your opponent as someone who likes flashy moves, and frustrating those flashy moves might very well cause him to make some serious mistakes, but in an alternative timeline where Luganville was less occupied, would the KB have still been in the neighborhood of your Gilberts operation? Might he have committed to a flashy invasion toward New Zealand as you were speculating (and hoping) he might have at the time? I think, based on reading the AARs that I have, that a second-tier ahistorical invasion tends to put a great deal of IJ assets at risk without realizing the proper payoff very often. Those breakwaters might have been vital if he had brought sufficient force to Luzon and Singapore, but was the delay along all vectors (rather than just some vectors) something that checked his own tendency toward grand, flashy and, if your read is right, strategically unimportant attacks? I'm not in a position to judge, even with a bit of perspective from both sides, but I can see a reasonable argument that tying down a reasonably significant percentage of your limited free ground forces (and eventually pools if John plays like John) is the right price to pay for robbing him of the initiative early. It's a judgment call, and it will absolutely not cost you the game, but it might very well have delayed your victory and given him more time to train up troops and dig in. In an important way, I think it is fair to say that his play at Singapore and Luzon cost him months off his initiative. Would another division worth of troops in India (less garrison at Port Blair and/or Cocos, perhaps less at Luganville) have made a difference in your planning at this stage of the game? I think what is making many of us a little curious is that you ultimately gave John lots of tasty little morsels of units around the map for him to snack on to buy yourself time. That might or might not be the right decision (and the boolean status of that decision is probably unknowable), but how do you plan to make use of that time to punish John for not coming as far as you expected, especially since based on your own assessment, he did not have the extra divisions from scenario 2 for a broader invasion scope.
I can easily see decent roadblocks being critical to mess up the timing of certain opponents and prevent disaster. Your game against Q-Ball was probably such a scenario, where he could bring the full weight of his game to seriously threaten India and autovictory. For someone with very ambitious plans and meticulous planning, I think many of your deployments would have been very smart decisions, but from my read of your read of your opponent, I'm not sure that you haven't done John a few favors by defending as far forward as you have on as many fronts. He gets lots of flashy little victories which, at worst, delay your victory a little bit, but if you take the angle that John has been able to attrit your pools without needing to extend himself very far into Indian country and capturing more than historical space to buy himself time on defense, the exchange might not seem as favorable to you. Not to say that assessment is necessarily accurate, but if autovictory is off the table, the game is really about Japan buying itself as much time as possible, preferably by SCLS, but by limiting your ability to mass force against their economy as long as possible. He's certainly not done himself any favors in Burma, but, like I said, would an additional division or two worth of troops right now on your side change the equation for you (even to hold those jungle hexes while you freed, say, the Aussie division that's searching for the tiger that took an officer's leg ala Monty Python)?
Anyway, +1 for your post count. I'm very glad that both you and your opponent are enjoying the game, as that seems to be the best part of any matchup anyway, and it has been entertaining for us peoples in the audience too.
If you're not 100% committed to the Aleutians Operation, what else might make sense - something that would be significant and long-lasting (not just a pin-prick)?
Bay of Bengal!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
CR,I too have been bemused by all the emotional opinion offered of late. Maybe it is just because I think along the same lines as you about establishing solid launch points at multiple points around the map to enable future offensives where there is the best opportunity to do so. It would be foolish to decide on Dec. 8, 1941 to focus on one theatre as the only axis of advance. If he happens to go all-in for the same area, it can quickly bog down before the Allies get enough oomph to push them out [say around September, 1943]. Others have said it before - the game, and RL war, is 80% about logistics. Get your supply and transportation ducks in order and the pointy end of the stick can do its job wherever it is aimed.
You have been abundantly clear about your thinking and your calculation of risk/reward for your moves. I have not read any of John III's AAR, but his moves seem to support the idea that he is not thinking of his own long range plans and is doing what seems like fun at the time. Two different styles, each player getting some of what they want in the game. I hope it continues for a long time![:)]
Post count +1 [8D]
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Schlemiel, I've read your post once and will read it again when my brain has cooled down from today's frantic activity. It will take focus on my part, because you put alot of thought into it. But here's the thing....
...your thoughts begin with the premise that something's gone wrong.
And nothing has! That's what I want to convey. From a micro standpoint, John has tallied a few bases. But it's the macro that I'm looking at and everything has pretty much gone as I had expected. The Allies are in excellent shape from every standpoing I can conceive of.
So how can I respond to a detailed question built on the premise that something's wrong?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
CR, I don't think he's saying anything went wrong. Rather, if I read him correctly, he is asking whether you believe, in hindsight, that the commitments of LCUs in various spots really bought you more delay than a smaller, more expendable commitment in the same spots. In particular, Port Blair and Luganville. In other words, would a brigade at Port Blair and a regiment at Luganville have bought you the same delay and reduction in John's initiative?
For what it's worth, I suspect a little less at Port Blair works just as well, but that less at Luganville means the first aborted invasion by John succeeds. That said, and I believe even Schmiel would agree, none of your losses affects your eventual victory. His question, IMHO, is whether you believe you accomplished the initiative flip with the minimum possible force.
Schlemiel, I've read your post once and will read it again when my brain has cooled down from today's frantic activity. It will take focus on my part, because you put alot of thought into it. But here's the thing....
...your thoughts begin with the premise that something's gone wrong.
And nothing has! That's what I want to convey. From a micro standpoint, John has tallied a few bases. But it's the macro that I'm looking at and everything has pretty much gone as I had expected. The Allies are in excellent shape from every standpoing I can conceive of.
So how can I respond to a detailed question built on the premise that something's wrong?
I am following both AARs and have almost a full campaign under my belt (very rare) Knowing what I know about Allied potential and my own position at this stage, then I would give Canoe a serious edge. There are certain things the Japanese player just has to accomplish at this stage. And I see a few critical things that John is missing at this point that will cause him most likely to lose. I say most likely because John is no slouch and can put a whipping on just about anyone. But I think Canoe has done what he needs to do. You all would do well to pay attention...[;)]
I think it would be straining at gnats to expend too much thought about Port Blair, Luganville, Cocos Island, Cold Harbor, and Diego Garcia. Those were my main breakwaters. I didn't know which ones John might come for, but I knew that I wanted to create a surprisingly strong garrison at each one to force John to miscalculate.
Cold Harbor: Never got close to being attacked, so 8th Marine RCT there was clearly an overcommitment of force according to this line of thinking.
Diego Garcia: Never got attacked, so 18th UK Division there was also an overcommitment.
Luganville: Got an Australian brigade and a Marine CD. It repulsed an invasion by 2nd Division (as Cribtop notes), then withstood two months of frantic bombardments, and finally fell. An overcomitment? Please.
Port Blair: I think it got three Indian brigades. It stood until sometime in March or April and took two Japanese divisions. An overcomitment? Yes, by Japan.
Cocos Island: Had one UK brigade with a second destroyed as it was coming in to land. An overcommitment? Of course not - John clearly had big ideas there.
So some of these early deployments proved unnecessary, some necessary but not real effective, and some effective. I say the record is pretty good on choosing these. Diego being a bastion of safety, for instance, has completely covered my right wing in Bay of Bengal, allowing me to send in ships and troops and possibly also contributing to John's reluctance to take on Ceylon, which has mostly been lightly garrisoned.
There are things in the game that I haven't done well of course, but Port Blair and Luganville (and the like) aren't examples.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Bay of Bengal: No major IJ activity. Ramree forts to level three (I'm standing down fort building to concentrate on airfield). Tonight, an EAB goes in from Akyab, so an important turn. An RN BB TF moves to Akyab tonight. I'm shuffling ships around to make sure John gets a fuzzy picture, but the main effort is at Akyab and Ramree. The fighters are split between Ramree, Akyab, Chittagong, Diamond Harbor and Columbo. Enemy sub with Glen sniffing around Cochin. SigInt that 25th Div. is prepping for Viz, which I don't believe (I think that's the same unit prepping for Newcastle previously). The Allies still have a good defense in depth in India, including Indian divisions at Viz and at Cuttack. 41st USA Div. is aboard transports 13 hexes out of Bombay.
NoPac: SigInt that 93rd BF is at Adak (this in addition to an air flotilla). 23rd Marines arrive at East Coast. This unit will prep for Shemy and move to Seattle. The odds of pulling the trigger on the Aluetians adventure is decreasing, I think, but I'm still preparing just in case.
Pacific: The Allies still hold Abemama (temporarily).
Oz: Nothing major happening.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I received this comment in a thought-proviking email from a reader: "...feeding LCUs into the maw of a Japanese player that may be leaning towards auto-victory is a riskier venture than you're allowing."
My reply: "[Auto victory] was out of the question from essentially the start of the game. At this point, John barely has a 2:1 lead at a time when he should be at or nearing his high water mark. He should have a 3:1 or 3.4:1 lead by now if he was shooting for auto victory. By October the ratio is going to begin closing in favor of the Allies. Heck, it might even begin closing sooner than that. AV is not an issue. It never was."
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Losing relatively easily replaced assets which don't have a lasting strategic impact in order to critically disrupt the enemy's strategic plan at a critical juncture in time is always a winning proposition.
1. Allied infantry and ground combat materiel are relatively easily replaced.
2. Canoerebel's losses are NOT preventing him from conducting any strategically relevant campaigns anywhere on the map.
3. Losses will be made good relatively soon and those assets will, again, be available in 6 months time ( although by that stage such reinforcements should be available that they will be even more expendable and have less strategic impact than they do now ).
Caveat to the next bit of analysis: My assessment of John3rd is that he only ever has the broad strokes of a strategic plan and rarely, if ever, understands how to phase such a plan or takes the care to put the logistical underpinning necessary to turn a broad strokes - "Wouldn't it be awesome and raise my forum profile if I was the FIRST player ever to take Oz, NZ and India in the same game" - idea into an actual workable plan which he can make stick in the face of competent opposition.
In this game it is clear that he either:
a) didn't have a Phase 2 plan beyond - take whatever Japan took in real life + the Aleutians and maybe a buffer in northern Oz or
b) mismanaged his troops in the Phillipines and Singapore such that they were bogged down so long his Phase 2 aspirations were no longer possible
1. Johns' the sort of person who chases "the next shiny, explody thing" which enters his eyesight. He isn't the sort of person who has the discipline to forego immediate gratification in order to maintain his focus on over-riding strategic goals.
2. Therefore he is uniquely amenable to being manipulated by the presentation of a phased series of stimuli, each of which he will react predictably to without considering long-term consequences.
3. I don't believe CR had the formed analysis of this psychology but I do believe that he has inadvertedly done precisely what I allude to in point 2. The Aleutians operation, the Burmese/Thai operations and the southern pacific invasions have all had the effect of concentrating John3rd's mind on the fleeting chance of tactical and, possibly, operational glory at the expense of crafting a Phase 2 plan ( if it was option a above ) or recrafting his Phase 2 plan to fit the new realities ( if it was option b ).
4. John isn't a man who operates on multiple levels either. Therefore it is my conclusion that the conduct of these spoiling operations into the period of time when John3rd should have been conducting Phase 2 operations has prevented John3rd from disengaging sufficiently to begin seriously planning what he needs to do next strategically.
CR hasn't won the initiative. John3rd has thrown it away. With that said the current situation is dangerous since if CR doesn't present John3rd with another distraction soon John3rd will get enough mental space to begin thinking about his strategic situation. That might be a good thing if it results in some doomed invasion of CONUS but I'd suggest that if John gets time to think ( and listen to what forumites are undoubtedly advising ) then he is likely to end up settling on the following "strategy":
a. Enter the strategic defensive on multiple fronts, setting them up to trade time for space.
b. Use KB piecemeal to create multiple raiding forces in multiple theatres.
c) Focus on some nebulous idea of using the ground forces freed up by transitioning to the defensive to mount a what he hopes will be a strategically decisive offensive elsewhere ( supported by large elements of KB if the place he chooses to attack is outside of China ).
I'd suggest that while b is in your favour a and c aren't and so it is time to shine a laser on the wall and watch him play "tag" with it for the next few months.
As to all the talk of errors in CR's play so far... He has lost readily replaceable assets whilst harming his opponent's ability to conduct strategically decisive operations in the critical time of the war for Japan. Sure much of that damage to Japan is self-inflicted but losing readily replaceable assets to help it along is a smart play, easily worth several divisions of troops - and CR's lost less than that. I amn't usually bothered by troop losses which are strategically irrelevant, even if those losses number in the thousands.... and before there's an uproar from the "I care about my pixeltruppen" crowd.... If these were real people and this was really 1942 then you'd better believe I'd commit those same thousands to death in pursuit of strategic gains.
Where CR has made errors is in not having his next spoiling operation already going before John is finished dealing with the previous spoiling operation. The one thing you don't want to give John is time to realise how stupid he is being in not having clear strategic goals and ruthlessly pursuing them during this period of time. Every moment he isn't spending chasing the laser on the wall is a moment he could be spending thinking about what he actually SHOULD be doing. You don't want that.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
"Wouldn't it be awesome and raise my forum profile if I was the FIRST player ever to take Oz, NZ and India in the same game" - idea into an actual workable plan which he can make stick in the face of competent opposition.
In addition to being comedy gold, this is an extremely incisive analysis. [:)] I have been there.
I think John's working on a hammer blow (I think it will be aimed at the Bay of Bengal, but it could be elswhere). Nemo is right about the need to have something ready to go to disrupt his plans. But I've put myself in a quandary. I'm ready to move on the Aleutians in a huge way (or will be starting in about two or three weeks), which no doubt will throw John into a crisis, but I don't want to pull the trigger until I'm reasonably certain the KB isn't up there or close (or enough of the KB combined with LBA to pose a bad risk to my carriers).
At the moment all of his carriers - except Quarter KB in the Andaman Sea - have disappeared from my radar screens. But since I'm not quite ready to go in the Aleutians, I still have time to "find them" or for them to find me.
I want to draw John's full attention to the Bay of Bengal. There is a good chance he's coming. It will be a hot zone and I could get end up getting pummeled there. He might even invade India or Ceylon. But Allied preparations in India and along the rim of the Bay are pretty stout. I can't imagine a place I'd rather have him show up.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
FYI - Japanese players know that July '42 is when you can upgrade and re-size your airgroups on your CV that include getting radar and better AA. Some of John's may be there, if he is rotating them through or he could risk them being needed and try to get most done within a month. I mention this as your are strictly an AFB. [;)]
Couple of points...
1. Given his propensity for dispersion of his assets he is unlikely to ever leave the Aleutians without enough CV support to disrupt your plans. Even if he makes a hammer he is unlikely to be able to stop himself from dissipating it so that he'll have enough left over so that he can ride around in glory behind the Union army while the war is decided on the field of Gettysburg. If he hits the Bay of Bengal then it is likely his dreams of glory will reside in a raid in the Pacific.
2. Lastly, have you considered that his carriers might be getting upgraded? I've never looked at the RA scenario but mid-42 makes a sensible time for his CVs to upgrade based on early-war lessons. My understanding of RA is that they've given Japan implausible weapons systems and foresight such that they have more AAA and ASW-focused ships at the start but have limited themselves in terms of upgrading the real starting warships. It might be worth opening RA and checking whether or not his CVs are due upgrades in June to August 1942.
If they are then I'd be willing to bet you real money that that's where they are. In the absence of a strategic plan engaging in ugprades such that his shiny toys will be extra-shiny and awesome whenever he next takes them out to play would fulfill the needs of his personality type. We're all prone to play to fulfill those psychological and emotional needs but John's personality type is particularly prone to lack insight into this behaviour and without insight your ability to impose rationality over the need to meet your id's needs are pretty limited.
CVs aren't just tactical-technical assets which can be used to further national policy objectives through action at the strategic and operational levels to him. They are toys which have a real emotional investment from him. I upgrade because upgrading improves the asset's ability to further national policy objectives through strategic and operational action. He upgrades because it creates a sensation of wellness and happiness in him. He won't resist that if one of the many groups of CVs he has scattered around all need upgrading at the same time.
Caveat: The one thing which would stop him upgrading would be if he has a plan in place which will feel even better than upgrading. So, if the upgrades were due in the past month or two they'll be upgrading. If the upgrades are due on 1st August it is likely that he'll land this punch before upgrading.
Maybe you could have a look at when upgrades are due and post the findings here? It'd help any analysis, if you want it. I understand you may not.
Edit: I see ny59giants has posted while i was typing...
Well that settles it, a large element of KB is probably upgrading. You need to find out how many CVs aren't due upgrades. I'd be willing to bet you that that's almost all you will face if you go now.
So, go now.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Schlemiel, I've read your post once and will read it again when my brain has cooled down from today's frantic activity. It will take focus on my part, because you put alot of thought into it. But here's the thing....
...your thoughts begin with the premise that something's gone wrong.
And nothing has! That's what I want to convey. From a micro standpoint, John has tallied a few bases. But it's the macro that I'm looking at and everything has pretty much gone as I had expected. The Allies are in excellent shape from every standpoing I can conceive of.
So how can I respond to a detailed question built on the premise that something's wrong?
I am following both AARs and have almost a full campaign under my belt (very rare) Knowing what I know about Allied potential and my own position at this stage, then I would give Canoe a serious edge. There are certain things the Japanese player just has to accomplish at this stage. And I see a few critical things that John is missing at this point that will cause him most likely to lose. I say most likely because John is no slouch and can put a whipping on just about anyone. But I think Canoe has done what he needs to do. You all would do well to pay attention...[;)]
I agree with this assessment. Although I only have two PBEM games and both ended early ... I think I am getting the big picture that CR is setting up opportunities on multiple fronts at the same time and will take what John will give him knowing the VP's will be there/really not caring about VP's rather than knowing that the plan secures required VP's at a specfic time. Probably differences in Myers-Briggs scores [8D]
From my standpoint and believe system the only thing that is "wrong" is letting John get into those forward jungle hexes if in fact Burma is the objective. But this opinion is clouded from my experinces using Burma as the main thrust and thinking of what could be .. rather than understanding CR's big picture plan.I also believe that a lot more has to happen by now including moving lots of engineers to Wazzup and Kalemyo to build up these bases if Burma is going to be a main thrust in 1942. However, what CR has done from my view is tie up previous IJA divisions into jungle hexes that will be very difficult to extract once CR kicks off his offense .... I find this strategy in my naive advanced begininger experince level very intriguing ..
[EDIT: Yes I know Ramree Island supplies Burma .. but interior supply is harder to interdict ...]
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
Here's another thoughtful comment from a PM: "I think some readers...may be objecting to the "What the **** is John thinking?" sort of postings....I don't know if it needs to be said quite so often."
I stand guilty! I will try to tone down my commentary.
Many of you know that John and I are good friends "outside the game." That feeling never wavers outside the game, but inside the game I've got to tell you that his "Banzaii!" comments irritate me tremendously. Thus, inside the game, I want to kick his butt all the way to Socatra.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I confess I don't have a good feel for whether a player in John's position (or a player like John) will upgrade now. I know him well, but that's an area I can't measure. This may be partially due to my tendency to postpone upgrades quite often. Upgrades are important to me, but nowhere close to paramount. I tend the "assume for the sake of argument" that other players are the same, which leaves me uncertain about the KB.
I realize the smart move - the bold and audacious move - would be to go now. If you were in these cirucmstances, it would be much veiwing pleasure to watch you do it and how you went about it.
I hope you will pardon me for just confessing that I can't pull the trigger until I estimate that the conditions are right. I don't yet, so I just don't want to stick my nose out too far. (Part of growing as a player is stretching oneself and trying new things; but part of being a good player is knowing what you're capable of and not winging it when you're unsure how to craft it and support it.)
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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