AAR Jon Pyle (Union) vs Joel Billings (Confederate) - Confederate POV

[PyleDriver]

Early in the war 5 to 7 raiders inflict 2-3 pp's a month and steal supply and block the North of up to 1 freetrade supply per port. The Union navy can normally destroy this threat by early 1863. Joel pulled a fast one and built 2 raiders late in the war, and have cost me 1-2 pp's a turn. These raiders almost cost me the election.

[8D]
Jon

[Joel Billings]

Finally got the move back to Jon (finishing the preview video and some other game development work had to come first). It does look grim for the south. However, cavalry raids on Lyon's supply lines did wreck his depot and will reduce his chance for initiative. Due to the advances that Sherman and Sheridan made last turn, they are also "off depot" and will have a reduced chance for initiative. The key is whether McClellan gets initiative (a 44% chance). As the Theatre Commander in the East, if he gets it, he will increase Grant and Sherman's chance for initiative. Here's how I figure the chances for Union initiative in April 1864:

General----% Mac w/initiative---% Mac w/o initiative---Net Overall chance---Location
Grant-------100%---64%---80%---(just south of Wilmington)
Sherman----57%---21%---37%---(just northwest of Richmond)
Sheridan----------------------29%---(in New Orleans)
Lyon---------------------------21%---(just southeast of Atlanta)

So on average, 1.67 Union leaders will have initiative in April, with Grant very likely being one of them. Jefferson Davis's worst nightmare is Sherman and Grant both getting initiative, and this is a 32% chance since they are both tied to McClellan. If that happens, the losses I would take in the major battles that follow would likely shatter what's left of the Confederate army.

[Crimguy]

Question - do different generals have different base chances for initiative? If so, I would expect McClellan to be on the VERY low side of things, somewhere with Banks or perhaps Buell. Why have McClellan act as general in chief?

[Erik Rutins]

Yes, it's based largely on the Attack Rating and Supply (Depot) for an Army Commander. However, the Theater Commander also has an initiative chance, which is largely based on his rank, command capacity and administrative skills. So a skilled administrator with experience as a high level commander can be a great theater commander even if he's not personally the best field commande.

If the Theater Commander gets initiative, it makes it easier for all Army Commanders in the theater to get initiative. If an Army Commander gets initiative, all his subordinate commanders automatically get initiative.

[Joel Billings]

With success, a commander can have his command rating go up, and he can also be promoted (which in itself also raises the command rating of the leader). As Erik said, for a Theatre Commander initiative is all about rank, command rating, and admin rating. MaClellan's 2 attack rating makes him a mediocre Army Commander, but if he manages to do well early on, his high Admin rating makes him an ideal Theatre Commander. Winfield Scott is an excellent TC, but he's so old that he tends to get sick or die early in the war. The difficulty is that the good army commanders are usually better left in army command, and the bad army commanders that might make good Theatre Commanders have a hard time getting promoted to where they are eligible for Theatre Command.

[ph4n]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Winfield Scott is an excellent TC, but he's so old that he tends to get sick or die early in the war.

Just curious: is this a special "Winfield Scott" rule or is there a risk (increasing with age) of leaders dying from natural causes in the game?

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: ph4n
Just curious: is this a special "Winfield Scott" rule or is there a risk (increasing with age) of leaders dying from natural causes in the game?

Every leader has a "mortality" rating that adjusts the odds of them dying in battle a bit. A really high mortality rating can make it possible for them to die of age/illness during the game, which is what generally happens with Winfield Scott.

[GShock]

Adding: Sometimes they don't die but just retire. The effect is the same...on one hand u lose a good administrative leader, on the other hand, you make room for new leaders to take his place. Now who gets there depends on you. [8D]

[ph4n]

Ok, thanks. Now release this game ASAP - I'm starting to climb the walls! [&o]

[Crimguy]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Every leader has a "mortality" rating that adjusts the odds of them dying in battle a bit. A really high mortality rating can make it possible for them to die of age/illness during the game, which is what generally happens with Winfield Scott.

Another (dumb?) question - does that mean Lee is more likely to be a goner by 1865? There were a few times (Wilderness and Spotsylvania e.g.) where he had to be virtually dragged from the front. There were many truly fearless men, and I think he definitely was one of them. Others would be Grant, Winfield Scott Hancock, and possibly Pender. Some, like Pender, were not so lucky.

[Joel Billings]

Only a few leaders are considered so old, that their age alone makes them more likely to become sick or die due to age. All leaders have a chance of resigning, but it's a much lower chance for those that aren't considered old. The oldies are (from oldest to youngest, at least in game terms:

Winfield Scott
Philip St.G Cocke
David E Twiggs
Charles F Smith
Edwin V Sumner
Andrew H Foote

These leaders generally do die during the course of a game, but it's not guaranteed. One of the things that makes each game different is not knowing when (or if) Winfield Scott, an excellent Theatre Commander, is going to die. IIRC in this AAR, Scott first became ill for a few months and then came back to the army, only to die about a year later. This was unusual, as in my experience with the game, most of these leaders die the first time they get sick.

[Erik Rutins]

Joel will have to answer that for certain, but from what I've seen the generals that were actually killed/died/retired during the ACW are the ones with the higher mortality ratings. The mortality rating is basically a "nudge" to the probabilities, you can have generals that died or retired serve out the whole war, it's just more likely that Jackson will catch a bullet in the wrong spot than that Lee will, for example. Fror example, Jackson has a mortality rating of 4, Longstreet has a 2 and Lee has a 1, whereas Winfield Scott has an 18.

[Joel Billings]

The chance of getting hurt in combat (other than the age factor which is a different issue) is impacted by the mortality rating. My understanding is that Gary set the ratings to some degree based on the historical results (i.e. leaders actually killed and wounded during battle have a higher mortality rating and thus greater chance of getting killed in battle), and partially on the aggressiveness of the commander (likelihood of getting themselves in a position to get hurt). Even so, getting hit takes luck (bad luck), so the odds are only adjusted, nothing is guaranteed.

[Joel Billings]

Leaders with mortality ratings over 10 are considered "old" and experience higher chances for non-battle illness/death.

[PyleDriver]

Public opinion in the North is rising to end this war. Grant and Sheridan have promised Lincoln victories this month. Grant is moving on Wilmington with 72,000 Inf, 10,000 Cav and 460 guns (80 heavy). Jackson's army was reported moving south and is near Raleigh, he may not make it there in time. Sheridan ordered 2 corps (28,000 men and 80 guns) in New Orleans to move on Baton Rouge, and moved his command back to Jackson MS, looking to put MS out of this war, with a reformed army of 64,000 and 180 guns. Steadman a corps commander (12,000) got initiatiave and is probing (in force) Vicksburg with Carr's 12,000 Cav. I my get lucky here, or I hope I do. Sherman now is just west of Richmond with 120,000 men and 540 guns, this is the souths main threat. Lyon is still outside Atlanta with 52,000 men and 200 guns. If my generals get the right initiative the next 2 months, this house of cards could tumble...

[8D]
Jon

[PyleDriver]

Additional notes...Joel had the luck early in the war, I'm getting it now... Knowing the poor transport system of the south, I pulled CSA forces into VA. My thoughts were to move Grant's army south agian to assault Wilmington (42pp's) in the spring knowing he would be hog tied to get there in time. Shermans army outside of Richmond will only allow so much support in NC...In 70 games I've played it has never been this close... Guys I've been testing this game 17 months now, and it never fails to suck me in, and I'm not a Civil war buff, but I became one...lol...

[8D]
Jon

[Joel Billings]

Now that WBTS has gone gold, it’s time to finish this game.

In April, Sheridan sent 30000 troops under Joseph J Reynolds to take the fort level 2 in Baton Rouge (Port Hudson). Sheridan, thinking that Baton Rouge would fall, moved back to Jackson to take command of forces there to prepare for a move against Joe Johnston in Meridian. Unfortunately, the Union navy was not yet in position to cut off supplies to Port Hudson. They will be able to block the river in May, but in April, with supplies able to flow over the river, the Confederate fort held out after losing a heavy artillery unit versus several Union artillery units damaged. As the retreat odds were .89 to 1, had Sheridan remained with the army, it is almost guaranteed that Baton Rouge would have fallen as Army Commanders contribute a lot to the retreat odds. Of course he would have been out of position for any move in May, so this was a calculated risk intentionally taken. I’m glad that Baton Rouge held out.

Another force of 25,000 men under Eugene A. Carr attacked Vicksburg. With the Union gunboat fleet badly shot up, no Gunboats appeared to block the river. I was able to reinforce the Vicksburg garrison with 4000 soldiers from Arkansas. Had the two remaining gunboats been willing to risk fire from the Vicksburg guns, they could have prevented this reinforcement and Vicksburg would have fallen. Instead, Vicksburg held out for another month, but the heavy batteries were wrecked and the garrison commander, Charles E. Lightfoot was wounded (give the guy a medal). Again the lack of a Union Army Commander made the difference. However, Vicksburg will fall if another attack is made.

In North Carolina, Grant maneuvered his army of 85,000 men against Wilmington. Stonewall Jackson managed to scrape together 62,000 men from all over North Carolina to meet Grant. The leaders involved in the battle are a who’s who of the Civil War: Meade, Pope, Schofield, Custer, Kilpatrick, Hunter for the Union, AP Hill, Kirby Smith, Pickett, Pender, Kershaw, Jeb Stuart for the Confederates. Could this be the battle that decides the war? As the battle wore on, Pender was killed leading his troops. This wasn’t enough, however, as Confederate fixed fortifications, and hasty entrenching was enough to counter the Union numerical advantage. Confederate losses were 10,900 and 10 guns while Union losses were 12,300 and 100 guns (much of it heavy artillery lost during the Union retreat). Grant was forced to retreat to Marlboro, SC.

My political points are now at 445, which means with the automatic loss of 284 over the remaining turns, I can afford to lose 160 more PP’s. Clearly Lee must hold Richmond. Sherman is still poised to the northwest of Richmond with a huge army of over 125,000 men. Beauregard still holds Atlanta, with Lyon’s army of 55,000 next to it in Macon. Joe Johnston holds Meridian with Sheridan next door in Jackson with over 55,000 soldiers. Grant has over 80,000 men in Marlboro while Jackson remains in Wilmington. Against these forces I have just over 250,000 men in the entire Confederacy. I think the entire Union army contains close to 800,000 men, but luckily many are tied up in garrison duty. I just need my armies to keep the Union armies in check for two more months.

[PyleDriver]

May 65, all my AC's got initiative but Sherman, ouch, I needed the assault on Richmond. Alot is going on to win this conflict...Sheridan split his command agian sending a corps of 14,000 back to Baton Rouge with 6 ironclads on the river. Another corps of 12,000 along with Blunt's division of 6,000 sailing from St. Louis are attacking Vickburg with 4 gunboats. Sheridan then moved on Meridan MS with 30,000 men and 200 guns...Lyon, still holding Beauregard in check sent Steele's corp of 16,000 south to draw him out, he has 120 guns and 4,000 cav with him...Grant had Logans corps of 14,000 move into reserve last month and are fresh and are leading Grants attack this month aganst Jackson's army in Wilmington. An additional corps of 10,000 sailed south and is attacking the beach with 14 crusiers, a total of 90,000 men and 340 guns. Buell got initiative from New Bern and moved north of Jackson's army to cut the rail line with 8,000 troops...Even though Sherman didn't get initiative some commanders did and attacked into the Shenandoah Valley with 40,000 men and 60 guns. If Lee moves from Richmond, Sherman's army will move into the capitial with his 130,000 men and 500 guns. I took a chance and brough 12,000 men from FL for the final dance...

[8D]
Jon

[Joel Billings]

Jon threw everything at me in May. I'm just glad that Sherman with the largest Union army didn't get initiative. In the east, AS Johnston tried to fend off the attack on Staunton, but outnumbered by more than 2 to 1, he fell back after a brief engagement. The attack on Goldsboro by 8000 soldiers under Buell did keep several units from joining the engagement at Wilmington, but Early was able to gather 18000 troops including the local militia and forced the Union back to New Bern. At Wilmington, Grant was not able to overcome the forts and heavy entrenchments in Wilmington and the superior leadership of Stonewall Jackson. Grant managed to commit 70,000 of his 85,000 troops, but Jackson committed all 42,000 of his. Although the losses were surprisingly light (guess they just don't like attacking those entrenchments), the Union took more casualties and even lost a few ships. Wilmington is proving to be a very tough nut to crack. The situation is in the east is shown in the screenshot below.

[Joel Billings]

In the west, what was left of the Vicksburg garrison finally surrendered after being cut off and surrounded by a large Union force. After April's attack, there were very few troops left to surrender. In Baton Rouge, the Union navy still refused to sail north to isolate the Confederate garrison. I think this was a big mistake as I'm almost positive that the garrison would have fallen had they been isolated. I was able to rush two artillery units over the river to reinforce the three heavy artillery units in the fort. All but one of the Confederate units was damaged, but the level 2 fort held out for another month. All that remains is 1 artillery unit, so any future attack will likely take Baton Rouge. In Meridian, Joe Johnston with 28000 soldiers was able to fight off Sheridan's 40000 troops. Once again the expert and experienced leadership of Hardee and Forrest was too much for the Union army to overcome (that and the many entrenchments dug by the soldiers). This was the battle I expected to lose, but at .81 to 1 it wasn't as close as I thought it would be. The final action in May was in Albany, south of Atlanta. Beauregard moved with Hampton's cavalry and Taylor's division to Albany while leaving Hood to keep tabs on Lyon. This was enough to beat back Steele's halfhearted attack.

In all Union losses amounted to 24000 men, while Confederate losses were around 14000. With the war entering it's fifth year, the armies seem reluctant to take casualties, and the heavy use of entrenchments is beginning to shift the losses against the attacking Union forces. The Union forces still have a huge numerical superiority over the Confederacy, but they're having trouble taking full advantage of this.

The Confederate Political score at the end of May is 354. I'll lose 192 points before the end of the game, so at this point I can still lose another 161 points and win. It's hard to see the Union being able to knock me down that much without taking Richmond. However with Sherman sitting next to Richmond with 130,000 troops, anything is possible. The Union has one more turn to knock me down before the game will end at the beginning of July.