Few IJAAF unit records exist and many of those were "reconstructed" from memory by the participants and cannot be relied on. Most were destroyed along with the unit they pertained to during the general retreat from New Guinea. Japanese forces did not record individual kills in the same fashion as US forces. Kills were ascribed to the unit, not the individial pilot. It is extremely difficult to determine how many kills individual Japanese pilots actually attained.
You've completely misunderstood what I am saying. I'm saying that if you want to know how many Japanese planes were lost you have to look to a Japanese source (or at least that is where your best data will be found if there IS any data). If you want to know how many Allied planes were shot down you can't look at ANY Japanese source at all, because their post combat assessments are ludicrous. The fact that kills were awarded to units rather than pilots is not germane to my point. It doesn't matter to whom the Japanese credited the kills, becauase the assessment itself is not reliable.
You can count on a Japanese source to know how many Japanese pilots or aircraft were lost. Although many records do not exist, to the extent that one can interview pilots you can get a sense of "well, we lost so and so and whatsisname" but even that its a very difficult task because many units had such high casualty rates you can't count on any remaining survivors en masse to recall all those who were killed or just disappeared.
You can count on an Allied source to know how many Allied pilots or aircraft were lost. But not necessarily to know how many Japanese aircraft were lost (but I think you'd be pretty close if over the course of a campaign you divided all the Allied post battle assessment "victories" by three).
Some Japanese pilots did maintain a record of these kills but they were never officially recognized as valid.
I hope now things are clearer. It doesn't matter what Sakai or any other pilot remembers doing. The tallies of Allied a/c destroyed aren't credible.
There is really no such thing as an official USAAF pilot AAR. Crews debriefed with intelligence officers at the end of a flight and and the Intel O's compiled these individual debriefs into an official mission report.
A debriefing is basically a verbal AAR.
Lundstrom, Bergstrom and others have attempted to break down losses but for the most part their tallies are simply best guesses based on the available evidence, especially in regard to Japanese losses.
Well, using the word "guess" for their assessments of USN/USMC/USAAF losses is misleading. They are estimates and I'd bet they are damned accurate estimates at that. As you say, for Japanese losses you do the best you can, but these estimates are difficult to index to reality primarily because Japanese records are so spotty.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.
Didn't we have this conversation already?