FitE LarryFulkerson vs Okimaw

[larryfulkerson]

Just two combat rounds this turn.  Here's the moves in the Leningrad area ( I grabbed a hex or two north of Leningrad as well as to the west of Leningrad ) :
 

[larryfulkerson]

I captured the city of Kharkov so that's another 10% of reinforcements that the Soviets won't be getting anytime soon:



I expect the first ceasefire to start in turn 32 so if the Soviet dude doesn't capture Kharkov in his turn 31 then I'll have it for the entire ceasefire period and can reinforce my units in Kharkov during the ceasefire and can hopefully hold it afterward as well.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the progress the Axis side made in the Sevastopol area:
 

[LLv34_Snefens]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

I captured the city of Kharkov so that's another 10% of reinforcements that the Soviets won't be getting anytime soon:

Just to clarify. The 10% are a permanent loss for soviet production. The only city that is worth recapturing, productionwise, is Moscow. You get 15% back of the 20% lost in that instance.

[glvaca]

Thanks for that. I've been wondering about this for a while.

Followup question concerning Moscow, will recapturing it also restore some (or all) rail capacity?

By the way, great work. For me FitE is the best scenario out there.

[LLv34_Snefens]

Yes, the rail capacity is on a continous event loop. Whenever Moscow is in German hands the rail capacity is 6000. 12000 when soviet owned.

[Zap]

I've really enjoyed following the progress of the battle, thanks[:)]

[Okimaw]

There has now been a general ceasefire due to the severe autumn rains. while the situation for the Red Army is not ideal, it is certainly not a lost cause at this point. Major urban areas that were needed to contribute to the war in an industrial sense have been lost but at the same time Area like Lenningrad and Moscow are not in danger. Sevastopol is threatened at this point but with great effort the Crimea could be reinforced and even possibly cleared of enemy forces should accessible reinforcements be avaiilable. There were some tense moments but the integrity of the defensive line held despite the Grman offensive actions leading up to this ceasefire. Now the Red Army must look at what areas will be viable for counter offensive operations. These opertions wil definately take place but care has to taken in the choosing of the areas of operations. Here are some shots of the whole front from the soviet view.
 
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[Telumar]

It's been a great AAR so far! Followed every single post until now. Hope we will see the continuation after the cease fire with Larry's kind of Operation Typhoon and the soviet Winteroffensive. Go on, by all means!

How many turns will the mud season last?

P.S.: I didn't forget you Okimaw, expect something soon from me.

[larryfulkerson]

ORIGINAL: Telumar
How many turns will the mud season last?

This particular cease fire will last until approx. turn 39.

Imagine my surprise to find this Soviet division so far behind my lines in turn 35:

[Rob_Adamson]

The cease fire is one of the parts of this scenario I was most uncomfortable with when I started to play. How does it work? Is there no movement to go along with no attack?
 
Historically, they just kept slugging on at a reduced and inefficient pace, but I guess that would be too difficult to model with the engine.
 
Rob

[larryfulkerson]

ORIGINAL: Rob_Adamson
The cease fire is one of the parts of this scenario I was most uncomfortable with when I started to play. How does it work? Is there no movement to go along with no attack?

So um........the only difference I have been able to detect is that there are no attacks allowed. Every other thing seems the same. Although I have detected several instances of Soviet interdiction when I move my units sometimes, not always.

[Rob_Adamson]

That is a very cool effect. I wonder if that might be more feasible, given that it looks like the cease fire will give both sides time to reorganize and reprioritize, something that did not happen historically.

Great AAR, btw. Lots of detail and analysis to chew over. I think if you emphasize Leningrad, you could probably take it. Moscow looks really well defended. Too much for Operation Typhoon to overcome, anyway.

Rob

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: Rob_Adamson

Historically, they just kept slugging on at a reduced and inefficient pace, but I guess that would be too difficult to model with the engine.

Rob

I ask myself if a 'negative' shock for both sides would better model that. It could be declining in steps over two or three turns down to 70% or 60%, last some turns and then again go up to the normal level in two or three turns. Maybe in combination with a significant shorter supply radius and/or a general lower supply level for the duration of the mud season.
A problem might be the many expected formation reorganisations due to negative shock, not so much for the front line formations, but for the reserve formations in regard to 'realism'.

Maybe the designers already tested that and found that it doesn't work good - or they ran out of free events.

[larryfulkerson]

ORIGINAL: Telumar
I ask myself if a 'negative' shock for both sides would better model that. It could be declining in steps over two or three turns down to 70% or 60%, last some turns and then again go up to the normal level in two or three turns. Maybe in combination with a significant shorter supply radius and/or a general lower supply level for the duration of the mud season.

This would better model what really happened in the real deal. To attack or not would then at least be an option for both sides.

ORIGINAL: Telumar
A problem might be the many expected formation reorganisations due to negative shock, not so much for the front line formations, but for the reserve formations in regard to 'realism'.

The negative shock might cause reorgs but that's probably what happened in the real deal as well. As you know the Axis doesn't have many reserves ( currently ) in many areas. They are spread pretty thin trying to cover the whole front adequately.

ORIGINAL: Telumar
Maybe the designers already tested that and found that it doesn't work good - or they ran out of free events.

As a matter of fact, it's my understanding that the FitE scenario designers DID run out of events. Maybe the next version ( designed for T3 ) will use all 1000 of them for things like this.

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

ORIGINAL: Telumar
A problem might be the many expected formation reorganisations due to negative shock, not so much for the front line formations, but for the reserve formations in regard to 'realism'.

The negative shock might cause reorgs but that's probably what happened in the real deal as well. As you know the Axis doesn't have many reserves ( currently ) in many areas. They are spread pretty thin trying to cover the whole front adequately.

Ah, larry, i think i didn't point out what i exactly meant. While reorgs at the front are what historically happened and are a desired effect, reorgs in the rear area, where one holds its strategic reserves, especially the russians, would be an undesired, ahistorical effect. I think formations doing nothing will however be subject to reorganisation check failure with a severe negative shock value.
The shock effect can't distinguish between reserve formations in the rear and frontline formations, though as formations will be more likely to reorg due to combat, the shock should bring roughly the desired effects.

Yes, maybe we will see a revision of the mud effect in a future toaw3 version.

[larryfulkerson]

ORIGINAL: Telumar
... reorgs in the rear area, where one holds its strategic reserves, especially the russians, would be an undesired, ahistorical effect. I think formations doing nothing will however be subject to reorganisation check failure with a severe negative shock value.

Oh. Yeah, right.....I hadn't thought of that. Thanks for that insight. I had no idea but I can imageine that's what would happen.

[Rob_Adamson]

I have a question for Okimaw and anyone else playing the Russians in this scenario: do you have a process in place to deal with the Soviet reinforcements and if so what is it? I saw a previous post discussing sending fort regions first, but the larger army units appear scattered all over the map. Do you use nodal deployment, or assemble them at the largest concentration and move forwards from there? I am only to turn 14 and the line feels very sketchy, so I would like to have a plan to deploy when the really large numbers of units start showing up.
 
Rob

[SMK-at-work]

I'm playing as Russians at about T17, and teh answer is....sometimes!! [8D]
 
I normally just cycle through units stating at the first one selected by hte computer - currently the fort on the bridge at Kiev.  When I get to a new army I cycle through its units to find out where they are and make a judgement call - if any of its units are "map edge" reinforcements then they get railed to the front if the army is "in the line".
 
If the army is not in the front line then any of its units at the map edge get the remainder of the rail capacity, if any - this means i will have them very tired walking to their HQ (if any) or a grouping of other units of the same army - often this means passing through Moscow.  When they get to Moscow they usually get put to work fortifying like mad (I think I have 100% entrenchements in every full-supply hex within 15 hexes of Moscow from directly south to Nor-nor-west!) while they're resting up.  Not too many units are in this category yet tho.
 
I have had a couple of turns where I've received several divisions of a single army - these I entrain en-masse and send to areas where they seem to be needed - the Kharkov front is destination du-jour at the moment.
 
Cavalry and recon units I never put on rail.

[SMK-at-work]

Oh and by "in the line" I mean wherever it is I've decided to make a "stand" - currently i've got a fairly solid line (1-2 deep) along the Dneipr south from where it bends by Smolensk to Kiev.  South of there armies are building up at the major crossing points and the line is slowly being filled in as units to the west of the river delay the evil fascists as much as they can.
 
I have a solid (3-deep) line across the "land bridge" between the Dneipr and Dvina, with 2 complete armies and a mechanised corps.
 
North of the Dvina I am also building a line up to Pskov - it is incomplete but the terrain and sacrificial units are holding up the invader as armies are coming up.  North of Lake Peipus fortified units and a small field army have dug in along the Narva River. 
 
In Finland the foolish fascist puppet Mannerheim left Hango undefended, and NKVD police units have swarmed into central finland rounding up anti-party activists and other undesirable types.  This has forced withdrawl of finnish troops from the front, and the Red Army is surging to victory across the Karelian isthmus.  This may have to come to a premature halt if troops aer withdrawn to defend Lenningrad, but we are striving to achieve as much as possible befoer this becomes necessary and at least the Finns will be of little importance for the rest of the war![:)]