Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Saper)

[Harrybanana]

Voronezh Area

[Harrybanana]

South

[Harrybanana]

Here are the OOB, Losses and Production Numbers

Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?

Not shown on the charts below is that I am only producing 31 T34s a turn.

[Harrybanana]

So taking stock now that Blizzard has begun there are some positives and some negatives. On the plus side, my losses are still under 3 million, I have a little over 5.5 million men under arms, Moscow was held and Army Groups A & B were not activated. On the negative side I lost a lot of territory, armament factories and manpower centres. As well very few tank factories were evacuated and Saper's strategic bombing campaign severly damaged my T34 production.

Over all I think this game is still very much up for grabs, but my experience beyond this point is very limited. Indeed my prior game against Saper was the only one of my games to even reach this point, and my postion in that game was very different. So I would very much value what ever input anyone is prepared to give me. Am I winning or is Saper? Is there anything I should be worried about with respect to my production?

To spearhead my Blizzard offensive I have built 12 cavalry corps; each has 2 sapper regiments and 1 tank regt attached to it. I'm not sure I have them in the proper locations. 4 are attached to 1st Shock Army on my right wing in the South. 4 are attached to 2nd shock army in the Tula area. The other 4 are scattered amongst my other armies. Suggestions?

I have several more SUs stored with STAVKA to be attached to my tank corps come May 42. My plan was to be build 10 Tank Corps initially, but I am worried that I will not have enough tanks to go around. Is there anything else I should be doing in preparation for Summer 42?

[gingerbread]

You will need to save up ARM for the July '42 Rifle Squad upgrade - I'd say at least 600k. That you still have 200k in the pool is something of a miracle (well done), but it will get very tight up ahead. So I don't think you can keep your art SU on 100% TOE.

Use the ARM squeeze on the ground as motivation to figure out how to get maximum use of your air force. They do not cost any ARM (well, the ammo used does, but if they are consuming ammo, some thing's got to be right [;)] ).

The early Tank Corps does not contain that many tanks, so a dozen should be possible. Remember to set the TOE% to 50% before they upgrade so as to not flood them with low exp tank ground elements. I favour 3 months of training but others think that is a waste.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?

Its 2:30am and im wacthing the Cowboy vs Redskins might not be the best of time to write stuff for me, but OTOH. The 268 number is what is actually producing this specific turn. Since when factory are below 50% damage there is a roll included in whether it produces or not. If it passes the roll it produce full, if it fails it produce nada. So lets say u had 240 undamaged facs, u here would have 28 of the below 50% damage succeding = 268 per this turn.
So the 268 is what is undamaged plus those damaged below 50% that succeded rolls in this specific turn. If u checked next turn it would prolly be another number depending on those rolls for the below 50% damaged in that turn.

You have 299 in all, but 268 was able to produce this turn per above.

Hope it helps,

Rasmus

[janh]

For a second I was about to say Saper is cutting it really tight with his pocket south of Rostov just before blizzard, but has the timing perfectly ironed out to retreat once blizzard rules strike. Then I saw you isolated 16th Panzerdivision... Have you managed to destroy it? That would surely be a psychological feat, at least. Saper's try was very ambitious, though.

"Am I winning or is Saper?"

Good question. I have following your AAR regularly, and honestly, Sapers progress and speeds are amazing. The number of operational tanks in his Wehrmacht arsenal speaks that story, as so often for players pushing their mobile formations hard. Very good so, yet what surprises me are your rather low losses. A couple of turns back I had expected you to loose Moscow and be above 4M losses by blizzard. Nada. The game looks still quite open, though of course also his losses are low, but that is perhaps rarher typical for WiTE. So a lot hinges on this blizzard...

Why? Saper only knows. I didn't get why he suddenly began shifting forces away from the strategic Schwerpunkt about 8-10 turns ago, and why then he completely abandoned Moscow and the huge pocket it may have offered about 6 turns ago. See other AARs: often taking Moscow now cuts very tight with December starting, which seems very credible in terms of game balance to me. If Axis succeeds in taking it still in time (or a little late with help of non-affected mountain units), it often yields huge fruits since most Soviet players tend to defend it with very determined major efforts, maybe not always justified by its true economic, manpower or infrastructure value. Maybe its for denying Axis three tier one winter quarters right in reserve range to the front rather than for its direct value.

If Wehrmacht fails, it usually still has sufficient freedom of movement to disengage and do what Saper seems about planning to do for AGS and southern AGC: Disengage and fight a rear-guard action until blizzard rules slacken, or better defensive terrain can be reached. Your choice of Cavalry Corps might do well in the South, though with him having placed major armor formations there and doing a Sir Robin it could be hard to develop exploitable situations. Maybe I'd rather just follow his forces with weak ones of my own there unless Axis minors might become viable targets. Otherwise my eye would be on the Oka and the Tula bend, which looks kind of dangerous. Any terrain around Moscow or towards LG you can recover will make Moscow a much unlikelier and more expensive target for him in 1942...

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: Walloc

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?

Its 2:30am and im wacthing the Cowboy vs Redskins might not be the best of time to write stuff for me, but OTOH. The 268 number is what is actually producing this specific turn. Since when factory are below 50% damage there is a roll included in whether it produces or not. If it passes the roll it produce full, if it fails it produce nada. So lets say u had 240 undamaged facs, u here would have 28 of the below 50% damage succeding = 268 per this turn.
So the 268 is what is undamaged plus those damaged below 50% that succeded rolls in this specific turn. If u checked next turn it would prolly be another number depending on those rolls for the below 50% damaged in that turn.

You have 299 in all, but 268 was able to produce this turn per above.

Hope it helps,

Rasmus

That helps explain a lot Ramus. Thank you.

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: janh

For a second I was about to say Saper is cutting it really tight with his pocket south of Rostov just before blizzard, but has the timing perfectly ironed out to retreat once blizzard rules strike. Then I saw you isolated 16th Panzerdivision... Have you managed to destroy it? That would surely be a psychological feat, at least. Saper's try was very ambitious, though.

"Am I winning or is Saper?"

Good question. I have following your AAR regularly, and honestly, Sapers progress and speeds are amazing. The number of operational tanks in his Wehrmacht arsenal speaks that story, as so often for players pushing their mobile formations hard. Very good so, yet what surprises me are your rather low losses. A couple of turns back I had expected you to loose Moscow and be above 4M losses by blizzard. Nada. The game looks still quite open, though of course also his losses are low, but that is perhaps rarher typical for WiTE. So a lot hinges on this blizzard...

Why? Saper only knows. I didn't get why he suddenly began shifting forces away from the strategic Schwerpunkt about 8-10 turns ago, and why then he completely abandoned Moscow and the huge pocket it may have offered about 6 turns ago. See other AARs: often taking Moscow now cuts very tight with December starting, which seems very credible in terms of game balance to me. If Axis succeeds in taking it still in time (or a little late with help of non-affected mountain units), it often yields huge fruits since most Soviet players tend to defend it with very determined major efforts, maybe not always justified by its true economic, manpower or infrastructure value. Maybe its for denying Axis three tier one winter quarters right in reserve range to the front rather than for its direct value.

If Wehrmacht fails, it usually still has sufficient freedom of movement to disengage and do what Saper seems about planning to do for AGS and southern AGC: Disengage and fight a rear-guard action until blizzard rules slacken, or better defensive terrain can be reached. Your choice of Cavalry Corps might do well in the South, though with him having placed major armor formations there and doing a Sir Robin it could be hard to develop exploitable situations. Maybe I'd rather just follow his forces with weak ones of my own there unless Axis minors might become viable targets. Otherwise my eye would be on the Oka and the Tula bend, which looks kind of dangerous. Any terrain around Moscow or towards LG you can recover will make Moscow a much unlikelier and more expensive target for him in 1942...

Thak you for your comments Janh.

I did manage to destroy the 16th panzer. Good for my morale as you say, but doubt it will be a game breaker one way or the other. Saper tells me that he also thought there was a chance of snow in December. I think this explains why he did what he did.

As for Moscow, I think it would have been a very hard nut for Saper to crack. His best chance was in turns 10 to 13 or so, but at that time his supply situation was very poor due to my cavalry raid which cut his rail lines. By turn 14 I had several entrenched lines of defence.

I am pushinh hard around Moscow. But he is retreating out of the Oka "bulge".

[Harrybanana]

T27

I continue to push and try to trap as many German units as I can. Saper retreats everywhere except around Moscow and Rostov.

North: No Finns and not much action.

[Harrybanana]

Moscow Area:

I'm surprised Saper doesn't have more strength here. I suspect he has sent a lot of units West to rest. I trap a few units, but not much.

[Harrybanana]

Tula to Voronezh Area. As I said Saper is pulling out of the Oka bend; so all my cavlary can do here is chase him and trap the odd unit that didn't run fast enough.

[Harrybanana]

Voronezh to West of Stalingrad. Mostly a whole lot of nothin.

[Harrybanana]

Rostov Area: I trapped another regiment, but otherwise Saper is slowly pulling back.

[Harrybanana]

The important things for me right now are, in order of priority:
1. Kill or, even better, capture as many of the enemy as I can,
2. Push the Germans back as far as I can to give myself some breathing room for summer,
3. Harvest as many guards units as I can, including tank brigades, and
4. Garrison the important fortifications so they do not reduce.

In terms of capturing the enemy the Soviets, unlike the Germans, have only a limited capacity to pocket a large number of units at one time. But they can create small pockets here and there by "pinching" enemy units and/or forcing them to retreat forward into a pocket. For the sake of the beginner player I give an example of this below from my last turn.

[Harrybanana]

Here is what it looked like after my turn. As it turned out I was able to move a 2nd unit in to join the mountain division.

[Harrybanana]

Here is an attack I made on the hex next to Rostov that looked high risk, but I figured the defenders were displaying as tougher than they really were.

[Harrybanana]

I figured the hex to it's West was also displaying a CV higher than it should. I mean I know Mountain unit CVs are not affected by winter, but a Rumanian mountain brigade with a 5 attack CV and 20+ defence CV in light wood with only 1 entrenchment level, that just had to be wrong. Well you win some and you lose some. Too bad, because if I had retreated that stack I could have put those units in Rostov in a precarious position.

[randallw]

Saper kept pushing too long...right up to the first blizzard turn. It's gonna cost a bunch of divisions.

[Peltonx]

Nice job. You should have the snowball effect going now.

Hopefully you can pocket at least 1+ division a turn as this will weaken his front line units allot and let you push into February.

He is very weak over-all in center.

You should beable to gain enough space to hold Moscow for the game now.

Good ARR