The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

July 22, 23 1943

While i lose contact with his retreating CVs and invasion TFs in NOPAC (even the chain of my subs didn't spot a single ship, except for an xAK that was left behind and was sunk by my B-25s with 2000 jap troops aboard [:)]), my BBs in the Solomons came back to Russell/Thousands to hit the place.
Rader has moved back his BBs to Shortland while his CVs remain at Kavieng...i sent a couple of subs to hunt them but in shallow waters i only achieved a sunk sub[:(]

The first P-47 Squadron is now operative in the Solomons, while a couple of Marine Hellcats Squadrons are withdrawn ([:@]).

We have placed a couple of crack ASW squadrons in the Solomons and they managed to badly hit (i think sinking them) a couple of jap subs guarding the accesses to Rekata Bay.

His planes got back to Rekata Bay in the meanwhile, while intel says that 3 more AA units are being sent to India....




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Thousand Ships Bay at 114,136 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

121 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Massachusetts
BB Indiana, Shell hits 2
BB Washington, Shell hits 2
CA Hawkins
CA Wichita
CL Santa Fe
CL Boise

Japanese ground losses:
446 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)



Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 13
Port hits 5
Port supply hits 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Russell Islands at 113,136 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-II Dinah: 2 damaged
Ki-46-II Dinah: 1 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 3 damaged

94 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Mississippi
CA Chester, Shell hits 1
CA Houston
CA Northampton
CA Indianapolis
DD Shaw
DD Mahan
DD Craven
DD Helm
DD Morris
DD Anderson
DD Gansevoort

Japanese ground losses:
304 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)



Airbase hits 17
Runway hits 30
Port hits 10
Port supply hits 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Agattu Island at 151,55

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 2,100 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 5
P-40K Warhawk x 8


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Taibun Maru, Shell hits 11, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk

Japanese ground losses:
2080 casualties reported[:D]
Squads: 56 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 41 (37 destroyed, 4 disabled)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jmalter

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
a BB TF composed by BB Kongo and Haruna...those very same BBs that ate more than 150 500lb bombs at Rabaul 3 months ago....how these two beasts can already be 100% operative is beyond my comprehension...

i'll just butt in here to note that BBs (and CAs too) can often shrug off a 500lb bomb hit, which won't penetrate main turret, deck or side armor, or spill the captain's coffee (though radar & AA weapons are easily damaged). Rader obviously felt that these ships were ready for operations. they might not have been at 100% all-round, but they weren't no burnt-out hulks!

kudos to your Shemya defense forces - both air & ground - they kicked some serious asterisks there, thanks to your foresight in keeping them well-supplied, building up their forts, & reacting quickly w/ air-transported reinforcements.

but i don't understand those posters who demand you wipe out the remaining enemy LCUs at Tulagi. Ain't it to your advantage to leave them alone for the present? they can't hurt you, if you eliminate them you'll allow the withdrawn elements to rebuild to full strength. I don't see the need to land-attack these remnants, until the time that your own Tulagi forces are needed elsewhere.

As i said, i completely agree with u. Those 17k men at Tulagi won't be touched for the moment. I wanna leave them there to rot...so that his units won't be able to take more replacements!
Kongo was reported with heavy fires...doesn't those fires damage the sys of the ship?!... however i'm pretty sure we're gonna have a terrible clash of BBs when our first landings will take place....[X(]

If i'm not mistaken in the failed Shamrya assault he lost or got disabled the equivalent of 2 divisions... not bad considering how much he has already lost at Tulagi...

[String]

Regular sys damage (not major) can be repaired quite qucikly in a large shipyard.

[Nemo121]

Mass and strike is a good principle, i agree. But timings are important too and i sometimes you have to throw what you have at hand...

And, as this AAR shows, when you go with insufficient force which just happens to be nearby you tend to lose it, creating the necessary conditions for having insufficient force available the next time ( since you lost ships which could have been present next time and made a sufficient force ). It is a cycle of negative outcomes. Against a truly good player you would face situations designed to invite you to continue this wastage of forces time and again.


As to your other reply in which you talk about Rader's play prior to Tulagi and after Tulagi... I'd point out that some people in this thread clearly pointed out his lack of killer instinct and cohesive planning long before Tulagi came into being. I'd also point out that given your level of inexperience when the game began his reaching so deep into India really cannot be taken to be a sign of brilliance.

Vs a child even a one-armed man seems like a man capable of great feats. When this game started you were, in AE terms, a child. You can't say that his success against you then is a sign of being a very good player. You really can't. In addition when push comes to shove and the Tulagi operation is analysed it'll be clear that at Tulagi he ended up playing into your hands and defeating himself. That's not a sign of brilliance either.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Mass and strike is a good principle, i agree. But timings are important too and i sometimes you have to throw what you have at hand...

And, as this AAR shows, when you go with insufficient force which just happens to be nearby you tend to lose it, creating the necessary conditions for having insufficient force available the next time ( since you lost ships which could have been present next time and made a sufficient force ). It is a cycle of negative outcomes. Against a truly good player you would face situations designed to invite you to continue this wastage of forces time and again.


As to your other reply in which you talk about Rader's play prior to Tulagi and after Tulagi... I'd point out that some people in this thread clearly pointed out his lack of killer instinct and cohesive planning long before Tulagi came into being. I'd also point out that given your level of inexperience when the game began his reaching so deep into India really cannot be taken to be a sign of brilliance.

Vs a child even a one-armed man seems like a man capable of great feats. When this game started you were, in AE terms, a child. You can't say that his success against you then is a sign of being a very good player. You really can't. In addition when push comes to shove and the Tulagi operation is analysed it'll be clear that at Tulagi he ended up playing into your hands and defeating himself. That's not a sign of brilliance either.

Well, obviously my view is affected by my "subjective" point of view, cause even if i admit i was a child when the game begun it's difficult for me to draw a line that tells till what point it's because of Rader's abilities and till which other point it's my own deficiencies. I feel (but i understand and i grab the idea that this feeling isn't correct) i haven't done any major idiocy in India (differently from China where i screwed myself) so i tend to give Rader lots of merits for that campaign. Also i liked a lot his ability to move 15 divisions from India to the Solomons in a month and defeat me at PM cause i never had dared such a move.

It's also clear that the more Rader is considered a strong player, the more my EGO is gratified when i manage to finally stop his advance...so i'm not really the one who can express an objective statement[:)]

About the "hammer" theory... i agree only to some degree. I believe that sometimes you just have to stand and fight, no matter what you have at your disposal. At the gates of Moscow or Stalingrad the russians stand and fought...at Tulagi, when lots of people suggested me to retreat back to NZ or OZ, i standed and fought with what i had and, with some luck, i managed to resist and live... i think it all depends on trhe situations...which are never the same.
However i agree that the loss of CL Perth was a stupid one of my side...the presence of a SCTF was foreseenable (sp!?!?) even if i hadn't spotted it...as you said, i'm still learning and the best way to learn is to break your own horns on the wall[:D]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: String

Regular sys damage (not major) can be repaired quite qucikly in a large shipyard.

Kongo got 78 500 lbs hits and large and extensive heavy fires... too fast i'd say! but probably i'm a victim of FOW here...[:-]

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: String

Regular sys damage (not major) can be repaired quite qucikly in a large shipyard.

Kongo got 78 500 lbs hits and large and extensive heavy fires... too fast i'd say! but probably i'm a victim of FOW here...[:-]

In normal WITP, Jap CAs were immune to 500lb bombs, even 200 hits would have led to maybe 2 sys damage[:D]

Going off my exp in AE, his BBs would probably have taken around 50 sys damage and maybe he got this down to 30ish before sending them on their latest voyage, as String said any non-major damage can be repaired quickly in a large shipyard.

[Crackaces]

Nemo: I would not say that GreyJoy was like a "child," Rather he, (like me too) as a beginner to a very complex game was blissfully ignorant of what he did not know. And this game not only has little nuances one must know and understand to be sucessful, but combinations of these concepts that can seem contradictory.

One developmental step from "child" to "adult" is the ability to synthisize information and extend that information into new environments. As I read this thread from beninging to end, I observe very closely the synthesis of knoweldge and application to different situations. This maturity is still not realized by Rader, and it continues to result in disaster. So rather than a comparision of a "child to a man" ... I would just say a better comparision is blissfully ignorant vs. Rader's arrogantly ignorant. The former requires simple appreciation and synthesis of the experince. The latter requires deep self-examination and rebirth of the learning process.

This situation is very much like the IJ thought pattern in real life, and led to the arrogance of Midway.

All the experts in this forum can see quick ends to the means, but GreyJoy continues to advocate his methdodical plodding game of attrition rather than a quick strike to end this game. However, I would contend looking at the game and his strategy -- his strategy is not as bold but it still gets the prize at the end. Which is victory. A funny thing .. no matter the "brillance" of Rader's early moves or that GreyJoy did not understand the game early and was unable to counter with precision .. right now if you look at things in this thread everybody agrees this game is decided and it is only a matter of course. Reinforcing my point that GreyJoy has synthisized a lot of information and is putting it to good work agasint a more experienced player.

GO GET 'EM GREYJOY!

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

My CVEs were escorted only by SCs cause i didn't have any more DDs to spare at SF...they were preceded by an ASW TF with 3DDs and 1 APD

Having an extra ASW group in front of your carriers is always a plus, but if you don't have the DD to provide both an escort and an ASW group, the escort should get priority. SC just don't cut it for escorting highly valuable ships.

[obvert]

One developmental step from "child" to "adult" is the ability to synthisize information and extend that information into new environments. As I read this thread from beninging to end, I observe very closely the synthesis of knoweldge and application to different situations. This maturity is still not realized by Rader, and it continues to result in disaster. So rather than a comparision of a "child to a man" ... I would just say a better comparision is blissfully ignorant vs. Rader's arrogantly ignorant. The former requires simple appreciation and synthesis of the experince. The latter requires deep self-examination and rebirth of the learning process.

While he may have lacked a killer instinct in certain places during this contest, I wouldn't say that Rader's play is arrogantly ignorant, or that he hasn't shown the ability to synthesize information from one context and use it in another. I think he plays the player more than most of us realize. In the quoted AAR 'Taming the Bear' of Rader's game with Jzanes earlier, he realized early on his last opponent was fairly cautious and he wanted to play a game that would both take advantage of that trait and not take advantage so much that the game ended abruptly.

From the reading I've done in both of his two recent incomplete AARs he seems more than anything to want the game to reach 1946 with the Japanese still having a fighting chance. This also means he does not want the game to end early. I'm not sure why he chose to play a relatively inexperienced player in a Scenario 2 game unless it was to try out some ideas of how to get to the finish line with some limbs and an eye still intact, and because a new player with GJ's enthusiasm and humility wouldn't be likely to quit no matter how dark the early years became, (unless Rader was just seduced by GreyJoy's use of the English language). [;)]

So in some sense (if this assumption is correct) we can excuse him for not putting everything into complete and utter destruction of the Allied cause in India. Few games make it to 46, and I for one want to get there as well, which is why I became interested in Rader's early aggressive style and later transition to defense.

There is some evidence that in the game against Jzanes he has continued to hold strong nearly half way through 45, although the Allies are picking up steam and both AARs are sporadic (but great when updated). I wouldn't say he has collapsed in that game. He's quite ahead of the RL schedule. (I can hear Nemo with all kinds of evaluations of the possibilities inherent in the positions of that game that various parties haven't taken advantage of).

I'm just trying to point out that while we judge a player on what we hear about, we may not know ultimately why that player is continuing to pursue a certain course when we don't know their ultimate reason or enjoyment in playing the game.

(But the Aleutians debacle was just a silly move in a moment of complacence, I suspect. We all need those every once in a while to wake us up and send us back to playing more judiciously and with a greater strategic purpose. We just hope we don't lose any CVs in the meantime).

[witpqs]

A few little comments...

Nemo did not liken Greyjoy to a child in AE terms, he used the analogy of a child vs a one-armed adult male in physical combat to describe his AE skills to Rader's at game start. Pretty fair, really, and I don't think at all he intended the 'child' part of the analogy as any sort of jibe. Just a novice against an experienced player.

Deciding to run or throw what you have into battle - the double edged sword. Nemo points out one danger (getting pulled into fighting with too little and making matters worse by frittering away assets) and Greyjoy points out the other danger (giving up ground and time on the cheap and making matters worse by allowing the enemy to gain too much for too little). Is the opponent bluffing or drawing you in? Even if you know he's drawing you in, is his assessment correct or do you know better? Even if you know he's bluffing, is his assessment correct or do you know better? Definitely a major component of the human on human side of AE!

Stalingrad and Moscow - true the Russians drew a line in the mud and snow, but they were also very well prepared in both cases. They had many fresh divisions for the defense of Moscow leaving little chance of losing. At Stalingrad they husbanded enormous resources with only barely what was needed defending the city. In both cases they counter attacked when the time was right. I think the key here is that they made the call to stand when they had what they felt it took.

Don't have nor the experience nor the confidence to start an offensive right now.

Confidence comes from preparation and experience. Experience comes from - experience! Plan some offensives and go ahead with them. You have plenty of coaching around here to help with planning. Rader is hoping that you won't. He's hoping to keep you distracted with things like invading the Aleutians (which has not distracted you, of course). Time is on his side now. You must initiate.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


[
I agree here. Don't have nor the experience nor the confidence to start an offensive right now. I still need time to move my assets into the right positions. NW Oz isn't building as fast as i'd like and i'm sending in more reinforcements. In India i still have to decide what to do (he's sending more troops there...). The only place where i feel if not ready at least pretty close is the Solomons...but it's also the most obvious place...
But i also agree on the fact that i do feel i'm getting better over time. Don't feel confortable with the grand strategy yet, but operatively speaking i think i grabbed the basics.

Actually, the fact that you hold the entire Aleutians chain is a big thing and presents a serious threat to Rader. Bad weather is a factor but just ask Canoerebel about the benefits of the Aleutians. Without bases in the area it is difficult for Japan to keep an eye on your activity there.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the Aleutians are very important whether they ever serve as a springboard for further offensives or not.
 
The Aleutians strongly held by the Allies constitute a major threat to Japan that the Japanese player has to deal with.
 
Some of the Aluetians in Japanese hands lowers that threat considerably, buying Japan lots of time and lowering the asset commitment in the Kuriles and vicinity.
 
It's possible that GreyJoy can implement a nice maskirovka now.  Just follow rader's disaster in the Aluetians by ramping up Allied activity there - more ships going in, some long-range patrols flying recon, perhaps a few 4EB flying offensive missions, etc.  Rader has to pay attention to such hostile appearances anyway, but he's more likely to have some level of paranoia now.
 
Each IJN unit tied down in NoPac means one less that GreyJoy will face wherever he actually goes.
 
And NoPac is always a possibility for a titanic Allied offensive as the war draws on.  Eventually, the Allies may get so strong (and Japan weak enough) that the Allies can bypass the Kuriles, if they appear to strong, and go right for Hokkaido or Sikhalin Island. 

[GreyJoy]

Guys,  first of all thanks again!
 
Secondly i'd like you to refrain from using terms like "arrogance" related to Rader's style of play. It's not fair, even if it's just a "word". Rader has always been a very good and sportman opponent and his gentlemanship has been shown to me in several occasions. The fact that he tried to push me out of the map [:D] is just part of the "role-game" we're playing!
 
And i perfectly understood what Nemo meant with the term "child". When the game started i was like a child in front of a mature and strong man. Now my testicles are "coming down" and the first couple of reddish curly hairs are starting to spring in little horrible circles beside my member. Not a man yet, but i'm growing up fast and soon i'll ask my desk-friend-mate to come out with me to buy an icecream during a saturday afternoon[:D].
 
I think the whole "Aleutinas disaster" was generated when i started, 2 months ago, to send recon PBYs from there to recon the Kuriles...Rader's activity in the area has soon become more intense...then he made a little CV raid...and now this failed invasion....if i have to bet, i'd say that Rader has already become a little paranoid about the northern threat...
 
Drawing the line and decide which is the right time to start an offensive...it's difficult. But i have more or less an idea. October/November will be my months...wanna start a multi-front offensive and so i need to organize many things in the right way (right number of ships, troops in the right location, squadrons ready when needed etc etc.
The plan is more or less clear in my mind...
 
First of all i need to understand what he has at Thousands Ships Bay... i have 4 divisions prepped for that target, plus 4 tank regiments an 2 eng BNs...gotta check what he has there!

[jeffk3510]

I'm not even going to comment on the second paragraph....[X(]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

And NoPac is always a possibility for a titanic Allied offensive as the war draws on.  Eventually, the Allies may get so strong (and Japan weak enough) that the Allies can bypass the Kuriles, if they appear to strong, and go right for Hokkaido or Sikhalin Island. 

Still showin' that NorPac love, CR!!! [:)]

One strong proviso I would offer, from bitter recent experience, is that going north carries with it early kami activation. I did it in order to take Sakhalin I. for early strat bombing, and I'd do it agian, but my losses to multi-engine kamis run to at least six sceens in the Sunk Ships list, and I'm only at 1/5/45. I also did/am doing a parallel campaign to take the western spine of Sumatra, islands first, and the kami losses there from the huge bases on the Malay Penn. have been massive as well. Many, many AKA, APA losses, lots of CVEs, etc.

Scen 2 gives the Japanese player enouigh aircraft to really keep the kamis coming, and a 35-trained pilot can still ram like a mo fo. A lot of the bigger landing ships survive one multi-engine hit with 45-60 mixed damage, but they're out for months. My damage losses have been about 400% of my sinkings. Call it 15-20 screens-worth of cripples. The Allies can take those losses and keep moving, but man, it hurts.

Go north, but go understanding what could happen.

[Canoerebel]

Well, you gotta close on Japan eventually.  One way or another, the Allies are going to activate kamikazees.  As far as I'm concerned, the sooner and closer, the better. 

Not, that is, that a nuisance invasion with no hope of lasting success against Onnekotan Jima in March 1942 is worth it, but a major Allied operation that succeeds in taking multiple bases with big airfield potential?  You bet it is!  While I'm dealing with kamikazes, my opponent will be dealing with 4EB hitting the Home Islands.  I want to be securely in that position as soon as possible.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
First of all i need to understand what he has at Thousands Ships Bay... i have 4 divisions prepped for that target, plus 4 tank regiments an 2 eng BNs...gotta check what he has there!

Hey, GJ. Long time, no post. [:)]

Just stopping by to mention two things which have occured to me reading here. I'm not going to give you any real advice, since I agree with Nemo and others that you get (probably) too much already, some of it bad, a lot of it good, but contradictory. You have to do what you have to do. I just want to mention two things. Maybe they're on your mind already, and maybe they're in the AAR and I missed them. I have not closely read every page.

1. Time. The Solomons were the right thing to do at the time. They were "safe", they got a reaction, they allowed you to attrit, they took some pressure off India, etc., etc. But now you're FAR behind any historical timeline. You're futzing with Tulagi still in late summer 1943. You say you have a large move planned for the mid- to late-autumn. I would just caution you to be sensitive to how long it will take you to get going in 1944, even with the toys you get then. The situation in India/Burma/SE Asia has been static for what? 8-9 months? You have a really massive pile of AV sitting in Karachi playing poker. Aden has been "open" for over two months, and you haven't, as far as I have read, done anything with this.

I think that the off-map mechanics are not well-used by most Allied players. We're trained by boardgames from childhood to "see" what's in front of us. Chess would be far different (3D chess?) if the queen could exit the back row and re-appear behind the opposing king without warning. I think many Japanese-only AE players fail to appreciate how different the board looks to the Allies due to off-map mechanics. They're playing chess. You aren't.

That said, let me offer a modest proposal. Not in Swiftian terms (and no cannibalized babies to decrease the surplus population), but literally a modest proposal, since I don't know what you know about the game flow. It's this:

2. Abandon Karachi. Its utility pre-Aden-opening is clear--it prevents Auto-Vic by ensuring that massive stack of LCUs does not go POW. But now, why invest what? 9000 AV there? You've seen how hard it will be to march your force out due to road infrastructure, desert, and huge LBA opposition. So why try? Karachi's organic VPs are neither here nor there. As a base it's of low value in itself. And now, with Aden open, that huge telephone pole has far more strategic value out of India, both for real fighting and as a force in being, both out-of-sight, and unsightable.

I suggest this: do a Dunkirk out of Karachi, direct to Aden. Phase it by first overwhelming Socotra with massive force, and get some P-38s in there to LRCAP Karachi. Speed is essential. In parallel, shoot fast, nimble DD/CL TFs down and south of Karachi to establish an ASW cordon and early-warning line. I'm talking no more than four days before the transports jump out of the wormhole, sprint to Karachi under LRCAP, and load troops only (leave the supplies), infantry and tanks only if necessary, then jump back in for Aden. I haven't seen a map in awhile, but I don't think he could get ground forces there before you have the majority evaced. Leave the arty and engineers if you have to; you get plenty in 1944. But get the infantry and tanks out before he can react. The planes can evac at the last through Socotra.

You then leave him holding an empty sack with his own massive army far out of position. He takes Karachi (Yay him!), and then . . . What? Yes, he can redeploy that army elsewhere, but where? The magic is HE DOESN'T KNOW WHERE YOUR ARMY WENT. The magic of off-map.

You could leave them in Aden, reconstitute, upgrade, and prep for an Asian target. I have been convinced by Nemo and my own endeavors in my game that Sumatra is perhaps the "best" ground to fight on in that map sector, and has many ways into the land mass.

But, and this is what I've been noodling, what if you used shipless off-map mechanics to take all or most of that 9000 AV to the EC, train them to SF or Seattle, and spring them all, en masse, unseen and undetected until the last, on NorPac, or the Marianas, or elsewhere with real strategic game-changing power (NB not the Solomons) in mid-1944?

Aden to CT is also a shipless option, and CT is perfect for a Sumatra campaign base. You decide. But the shipless movement mechanism is an incredible force multiplier, with zero risk of loss, no fuel worries, and undetectible through game intel if you do things right. Give NO hint by e-mail, and he will forevermore need to guard India from a counter-invasion. He might not even think of the Indian Army attacking Sakhalin Island, but if he does he STILL has to defend everywhere when a massive, 9000 AV army can pop up on the other side of the world without warning.

Anyway, just some thoughts. Even if you don't do the off-map radical stuff, maybe you ought to really look at what the Karachi situaiton is getting you. Anything? Or has it passed its freshness date?

[Canoerebel]

Durn, there's some good thinking for you.  I personally would pay attention to such clever advice, but since Bullwinkle is a AI player it really can't be good....can it?
 
P.S.  A move on this scale would throw an opponent into total confusion and could possibly wrest the entire strategic advantage away from Japan.  If you had enough transports to handle a truly massive army, the mind boggles at the possibilities.  Sikhalin Island, Hokkaido, Formosa, and Luzon seem like the most interesting targets.  But, ah, as the Moose says, I'll leave the decision making to you!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, you gotta close on Japan eventually.  One way or another, the Allies are going to activate kamikazees.  As far as I'm concerned, the sooner and closer, the better. 

Not, that is, that a nuisance invasion with no hope of lasting success against Onnekotan Jima in March 1942 is worth it, but a major Allied operation that succeeds in taking multiple bases with big airfield potential?  You bet it is!  While I'm dealing with kamikazes, my opponent will be dealing with 4EB hitting the Home Islands.  I want to be securely in that position as soon as possible.

I agree, somewhat.

The issue I did not fully appreciate is that the early kami date is 1/1/44, and you have no B-29s then. Also, kamis activate everywhere, not just in NorPac. I took most of my very high losses near Sumatra, Pelileu, Rangoon/Akyab, etc. not in the Sakhalin operations. January 1944 is a LOT tougher to kami-defend than autumn 1944 would be, but it's a binary switch on kami activation.

From the twin big bases on Sakhalin I. there's fewer goodies in range pre-B-29 than you might like. Your fighters are hopeless for the most part until you have enough P-39s to spare, and of course P-51s. I've experimented a lot with hitting armament point generators in Korea, and leaving the HI largely alone. Korea is a grazing pasture for B-29s from Sakhalin. A lot less fatigue management than trying to bomb from the Marianas. I figure that engine and aircraft factory bombing by now, in Scen 2, is closing the barn door after the horse already stocked the barn with airframes, while attriting armament stocks lets me leverage Chinese LCUs which can really whomp the Japanese in 1944 once they get some supplies in from Ledo and get some experience. I've taken an almost exclusive armament-point-denial tact in my strat bombing, and it's paying off in early 1945. I get lots of 1:1 set-piece battles in China with 2000-4000 Japanese casualties.