GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1944. End of Turn.

Breakdown Armies/Corps.
99-Breakdown-Armies-Corps.png
99-Breakdown-Armies-Corps.png (29.97 KiB) Viewed 256 times
(1/7) Germany, Western Front.
99-BDCA-Western-GER.png
99-BDCA-Western-GER.png (383.26 KiB) Viewed 256 times
(2/7) Germany, Eastern Front.
99-BDCA-Eastern-GER.png
99-BDCA-Eastern-GER.png (494.42 KiB) Viewed 256 times
(3/7) Free French. Balkans.
99-BDCA-Balkan-Free-French.png
99-BDCA-Balkan-Free-French.png (798.03 KiB) Viewed 255 times
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1944. End of Turn.

Breakdown Armies/Corps.
(4/7) USA, Western Front #1.
99-BDCA-Western-USA.png
99-BDCA-Western-USA.png (508.8 KiB) Viewed 254 times
(5/7) USA, Western Front #2.
99-BDCA-Western-USA-2.png
99-BDCA-Western-USA-2.png (906.2 KiB) Viewed 254 times
(6/7) USSR, Eastern Front #1.
99-BDCA-Eastern-USSR.png
99-BDCA-Eastern-USSR.png (597.1 KiB) Viewed 254 times
(7/7) USSR, Eastern Front #2.
99-BDCA-Eastern-USSR-2.png
99-BDCA-Eastern-USSR-2.png (875.77 KiB) Viewed 254 times
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:04 pm
Angeldust2 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:25 am
rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:58 am Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Axis #7. Impulse #233.
(23) Japan's a different story in that their Home Islands are heavily defended.
(24) I've never played with atomic bombs but that's my plan for Japan.
(25) Build the bomb and bomb them
(26) Trying to invade would be suicide.
???
Maybe you should check the effects of A-Bombs again, before you base your strategy on them. I think, they cannot help significantly against an already heavily defended Japan, or am I missing something? Do you play with carpet bombing?
Thanks. I am not using the optional, carpet bombing. So, my understanding is that you may use them for either strategic bombing or port strikes. Is this correct?
I should have read the specific rule before now! Now that the US built their first atom bomb.
99-Atomic-Bombs-Optional-Rule.png
99-Atomic-Bombs-Optional-Rule.png (80.49 KiB) Viewed 245 times
The requirement that the carrier had to have strategic factors of 9 or more was something I "just learned". US has no such bomber on map.
99-USAAF-Strat-Bombers.png
99-USAAF-Strat-Bombers.png (225 KiB) Viewed 245 times
And looking at their force pool, of the 12 strategic bombers only 4 meet that requirement. So what is the US to do? Bit of a spoiler, the built their first atom bomb and rolled the dice by building 2 LND4 giving them a 57.6% chance of getting at least 1 of the 4 with 9+ strat factors. Even if they get one with 12+ strat factors, the bomber won't be ready until turn 37, Sep/Oct 1945.
99-USAAF-Land-Air-4-Force-Pool.png
99-USAAF-Land-Air-4-Force-Pool.png (191.76 KiB) Viewed 245 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.

Surrender?
(1) I guess Vichy really wants to surrender (again). Last turn they surrender to the USA. This turn to the CW.
(2) Also, this is the first turn in a long while that China was NOT asked to surrender.
99-Conquest-Surrender-Vichy-to-CW.png
99-Conquest-Surrender-Vichy-to-CW.png (1.67 MiB) Viewed 243 times
Factory Destruction.
(3) CW destroys blue factory in Hamburg, Germany.
99-FD-CW-Destroys-GER-Blue-Factory.png
99-FD-CW-Destroys-GER-Blue-Factory.png (439.24 KiB) Viewed 243 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.

Economics.
99-ECON.png
99-ECON.png (97.07 KiB) Viewed 241 times
Production Spiral.
99-Production-1.png
99-Production-1.png (252.62 KiB) Viewed 241 times
99-Production-2.png
99-Production-2.png (204.74 KiB) Viewed 241 times
(1) US did hit the 57.6% that with 2 LND4 builds that one would have 9+ SAC factors.
(2) Again, it won't be ready until turn 37, Sep/Oct 1945.
99-Production-3.png
99-Production-3.png (198.01 KiB) Viewed 241 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.

Production Plots.
Gross BPs.
Per Turn.
99-Per-Turn-Gross.png
99-Per-Turn-Gross.png (113.94 KiB) Viewed 208 times
Cumulative.
99-Gross-Cumulative.png
99-Gross-Cumulative.png (128.8 KiB) Viewed 208 times
Net BPs.
Per Turn.
99-Per-Turn-Net.png
99-Per-Turn-Net.png (145.46 KiB) Viewed 208 times
Cumulative.
99-Net-Cumulative.png
99-Net-Cumulative.png (137.59 KiB) Viewed 208 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.

Oil Plots.
Income.
99-Oil-Income.png
99-Oil-Income.png (97.76 KiB) Viewed 206 times
Reorg Need.
99-Oil-Need-for-Reorg.png
99-Oil-Need-for-Reorg.png (160.8 KiB) Viewed 206 times
Reorg Expended.
99-Oil-Used-for-Reorg.png
99-Oil-Used-for-Reorg.png (128.63 KiB) Viewed 206 times
Stockpile (Total Saved Oil).
99-Saved-Oil.png
99-Saved-Oil.png (107.48 KiB) Viewed 206 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Turn Summary.

Weather & Actions.
99-Weather-Actions-Summary.png
99-Weather-Actions-Summary.png (37.81 KiB) Viewed 205 times
Combat Logs.
Turn.
99-CL-Turn.png
99-CL-Turn.png (38.55 KiB) Viewed 205 times
All.
99-CL-ALL.png
99-CL-ALL.png (46.8 KiB) Viewed 205 times
War Directives.
99-WD-Summary.png
99-WD-Summary.png (59.59 KiB) Viewed 205 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Turn Summary.

Global Maps.
Control.
99-GM-Control.png
99-GM-Control.png (95.39 KiB) Viewed 203 times
Units.
99-GM-Units.png
99-GM-Units.png (82.44 KiB) Viewed 203 times
Active Axis.
99-GM-Active-Axis.png
99-GM-Active-Axis.png (82.09 KiB) Viewed 203 times
Active Allied.
99-GM-Active-Allied.png
99-GM-Active-Allied.png (90.26 KiB) Viewed 203 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Turn Summary.

Victory Totals & Scores.
99-VT.png
99-VT.png (148.5 KiB) Viewed 202 times
99-VT-2.png
99-VT-2.png (94.28 KiB) Viewed 202 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Start of Turn.

Reinforcements.
(1) Turn ending when it did was major for Germany.
(2) Massive German & air reinforcements including 14 fighter & bomber wings!
(3) Also, if axis move first then will breakthrough to isolated Army Group in central France.
00-Reinforcements.png
00-Reinforcements.png (103.54 KiB) Viewed 190 times
Trade Agreements.
(4) US stops lend lease (6 BPs) to USSR.
(5) US stops 1 non-oil RP to China because China now has enough RPs to feed their working factories.
00-Trade-Agreements.png
00-Trade-Agreements.png (26.65 KiB) Viewed 190 times
Initiative.
Weather Forecast.
00-Weather-Forecast.png
00-Weather-Forecast.png (58.73 KiB) Viewed 190 times
Voting & Instructions.
00-Initiative-Voting.png
00-Initiative-Voting.png (128.55 KiB) Viewed 190 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Initiative.
00-Initiative.png
00-Initiative.png (49.44 KiB) Viewed 187 times
01-AL-Weather.png
01-AL-Weather.png (168.12 KiB) Viewed 188 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Impulse #234.

Actions & Weather.
01-AL-Actions-Weather.png
01-AL-Actions-Weather.png (25.84 KiB) Viewed 172 times
War Directives.
(1) I've come to the conclusion at this stage in my counterfactual that it's time to retire my War Directives driven approach for one that focuses on control of the 67 objective cities.
99-WD-Summary.png
99-WD-Summary.png (59.59 KiB) Viewed 172 times
Objective Cities.
(2) Control of the 67 objective cities along with "score" has been a standard report at the end of each turn for all 33 turns played thus far.
(3) Score is the difference between the number of objective cities controlled and the average of the historical and game "average" provided with MWIF.
(4) That is, Score = VPs - (Historical + Average) / 2.
(5) As you can see Germany current has a commanding lead with a score of 8 followed by the Western Allies 0.
(6) The USSR and Japan, each currently with a score of -4, bring up the rear.
(7) Well, the rear, rear is Italy being completely conquered on turn 23, May/June 1943. Italy's score is irrelevant, they finished dead last.
99-VT.png
99-VT.png (148.5 KiB) Viewed 172 times
99-VT-2.png
99-VT-2.png (94.28 KiB) Viewed 172 times
Tehran Conference.
(8) In my counterfactual whether or not the "Big 3" (FDR, Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin) would have met at Tehran or not is irrelevant.
(9) They would have met for a "second" time somewhere.
(10) I think it obvious that while both German and Japan have a lot more fight left, German so more than Japan, that the axis are going to be defeated.
(11) Germany will be completely conquered even if the war (i.e., game) extends pass turn 36.
(12) Japan, honestly I don't know I have the energy for a full scale invasion and conquest of the Home Islands.
(13) Much like the real allies (mainly US) felt.
(14) However in my case it's just a bit of "war gaming" fatigue versus the real case where 1,000,000's or even 10,000,000's potential lives loss (both sides, military and civilian).
(15) I'm not sure the US public in 1946 would have tolerate such losses after 5 years or war.
(16) So my plan is to play out this counterfactual until Germany is completely conquered and every objective city outside of Japan is controlled by the allies.
(17) This leaves Japan with one (Tokyo).
(18) Then I think it's reasonable to conclude this counterfactual on the premise that the Atomic bomb forced Japan to surrender with the concession that they get to keep their emperor. Whether or not through demonstration or actual use, I'll leave that choice up to the reader.
(19) There's still a lot of "fighting" left; specifically in Europe before then so I see this counterfactual AAR continuing on for some time.
(20) Honestly, I'm having a blast even though the outcome isn't really in doubt.
(21) The last scoring will be at the end of Turn 36, Jul/Aug 1945; however, if my requirements for ending are not yet achieved I will continue.

Status.
(22) Even though the Western Allies have a score of 0, meaning they're on par with historical (& game average) objective cities controlled, they're behind in Europe and way ahead in the Pacific & Asia.
(23) However; they're poised to make that difference up quickly.
(24) In my counterfactual my Western Allies have an opportunity to do in Europe what the actual Western Allies couldn't and was the reason for the start of World War II.
(25) And that is; reestablish and guarantee Poland's sovereignty.

Objective City Objectives
(26) The following is a list (not necessarily in order of priority) of enemy objective city "objectives" for the allies.
(27) Western Allies (13) - Paris, Antwerp, Amsterdam, Munich, Prague, Warsaw, Vienna, Belgrade, Budapest, Takaki, Diego Suarez, Istanbul, Bucharest.
(28) USSR / CCP (8) - Kiev, Istanbul, Bucharest, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Vienna, Chunking.
(29) China (Nationalist) (1) - Chunking.
(30) Note that the intersection of these list are NOT null meaning the Western Allies, Soviets and Chinese Nationalist have eyes on some of the same objectives.
(31) Of course, capturing enemy objective cities require sound military strategy and the capture of other critical cities.
(32) One example, is Donitz's new U-boat base at Rotterdam.
(33) Other examples include cities with factories and/or resource points.
(34) Or cities for airbases and to deny supply.
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Actions (Revised) & Weather.
REVISED: CW also taking a super combine (vs land).
01-AL-Actions-Weather-Revised.png
01-AL-Actions-Weather-Revised.png (25.85 KiB) Viewed 169 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Med.

Port Strike. Istanbul, Turkey.
[rain] Surprise D10(G/O=AL/AX): USN=2, TUR=1. Turkey use 2 SPs to reduce their risk from A to none.
01-AL-Med-Port-Strike-Istanbul-1.png
01-AL-Med-Port-Strike-Istanbul-1.png (286.4 KiB) Viewed 141 times
01-AL-Med-Port-Strike-Istanbul-2.png
01-AL-Med-Port-Strike-Istanbul-2.png (288.4 KiB) Viewed 141 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1.

PTO & Joint Naval (Atlantic & Med)Commands.
Threat.
IJN.
(1) IJN WILL take a naval so all elements below are threats!
01-AL-IJN-Threat.png
01-AL-IJN-Threat.png (106.86 KiB) Viewed 139 times
KM.
(2) KM may take a combine (all subs or BB raiders), unlikely to take a naval or two combines (subs and BB raiders) and all elements below need to be adequately but minimally addressed.
01-AL-GER-Sub-KM-SCS-Threat.png
01-AL-GER-Sub-KM-SCS-Threat.png (49.18 KiB) Viewed 139 times
IJN I-boat, German U-boat Threat to Allied Convoys.
(3) The below risk assessment is why the CW action was changed from land to super combine.
(4) Along with the US, who took a super combine, there's great need to address the certain threat from IJN I-boats and the possible threat from German U-boats/Sub Gps.
(5) The graphic below shows the number of I-boat Squadrons (in red) and the number of German U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps (in black) that can reach sea areas with allied convoys.
01-AL-Convoy-Risk-Assessment.png
01-AL-Convoy-Risk-Assessment.png (200.5 KiB) Viewed 135 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Western Front. North & Baltic Sea
(1) 30% fine + 20% rain = 50% amphibious possible next allied impulse.
North Sea [4] -> Invasion Task Force (2 armies), bombardment & reinforcements (Denmark)
North Sea[3] -> Bombardment, reinforcement, support task force.
North Sea[2] -> Reinforcement, support task force.
Baltic Sea[4] -> Carrier, Battleship, Heavy Cruiser task force looking to break KM convoy line (sink/abort).
Baltic Sea[4 & 3] -> Bombardment task forces in support of land combat along coast (30% fine + 20% rain + 20% snow = 70%).
01-AL-NM-North-Sea-Baltic.png
01-AL-NM-North-Sea-Baltic.png (1.75 MiB) Viewed 122 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

East Coast. Caribbean.
(1) More reinforcements for Europe and/or Med.
(2) Pretty good ASW escorts and patrols given low; but not zero, probability of U-boat sorties.
(3) USA & CW used (will use) a lot of oil but action and oiling much more important than production at this point.
Attachments
01-AL-NM-East-Coast-Caribbean.png
01-AL-NM-East-Coast-Caribbean.png (854.86 KiB) Viewed 121 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Bay of Biscay. North Atlantic. Central Atlantic. Cape St. Vincent.
(1) Strong ASW escorts & patrols (again given threat likelihood).
(2) RN CVs, BB, CA, USN BB redeploying to Pacific but while do so adding to ASW escort & patrol.
AL-NM-BOB-NATL-CATL-CSV.png
AL-NM-BOB-NATL-CATL-CSV.png (780.82 KiB) Viewed 120 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

BOA. Cape Verde Basin. Mouth of the Amazons.
01-AL-NM-CVB-MOA.png
01-AL-NM-CVB-MOA.png (340.87 KiB) Viewed 119 times
Ronnie
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