AI for MWiF - Germany

[Mike Parker]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
French Admiralty had asked for purely volunteer crews for such a mission on September 2nd, 1939, they would have found them.

Honestly, not likely. And its very unlikely the Admiralty would have seriously considered such a move in the first place. There was every expectation that France would do quite well in an war with Germany, Especially with UK as her ally. So to in essence throw away naval assets in this way... well would have been seen in a very poor light.

The ONLY reason such a manouver is considered in WiF is because we know that in 95+% of the games France 'is as dead as fried chicken' and that a Vichy France will be created.

With that said, its a gamey tactic, but to each their own. I don't mind gamey tactics and in a game with friends we often house rule certain things. But there is value to it in WiF, or at least the possibility of it.

[composer99]

Whether the French launch their raid, given my preferred set-up for the German navy, if a particularly bad weather impulse hits in Sept/Oct 1939 (the dreaded Storms) or the turn/Polish campaign is winding down I do a naval impulse. Convoys go out, get escorts if there are French and/or Denmark is not taken, and the navy can all return to Kiel now more or less safe from Allied attack.

[brian brian]

you're probably right Mike, perhaps I should have written 'might have found them'. the whole thing is rather daft. it is also done in WiF because one knows that capital surface ships aren't going to be as important in the war as they were considered at the time. and it is considered completely suicidal-in-reality by us with hindsight due to airpower, which also wasn't completely understood at the time; the issue was whether ships could pass the minefields in the Skaggerak. (In WWI the Danes permitted these but in 39 they wouldn't have been present yet). but then it is nearly automatic Axis play to ahistorically invade Denmark in S/O 39 due to concerns that the Allied player will ahistorically raid the Baltic soon if they don't and the whole situation is somewhat strange from the get-go.

we've covered the rest of the theoretical game ground on the forum before anyway, sorry to bring it up again. but I like seeing all the AI threads in action once again. [8D]

but since the human Allied player can do this if they wish, I guess the question is, should the German AI set up their CPs in the Baltic at start? I would answer that it would depend on the overall scope of the German plan on the first turn. During a conservative, Poland&Denmark only approach, I would say no, lower the risk and send them out on a combined impulse during the first turn.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Whether the French launch their raid, given my preferred set-up for the German navy, if a particularly bad weather impulse hits in Sept/Oct 1939 (the dreaded Storms) or the turn/Polish campaign is winding down I do a naval impulse. Convoys go out, get escorts if there are French and/or Denmark is not taken, and the navy can all return to Kiel now more or less safe from Allied attack.

You setup the 4 German convoys :
- If the French don't come, or if they come and don't find (50% chances at least that they don't find), or if they inflict only 1 casualty, you have no naval move to do during the S/O 39 turn.
- If the French come, and they find, and they inflict more than 1 casualty on the CPs, then you'll have to do a naval move. This is less than 50% time as there is already a minimum 50% chances that they don't find.

You don't setup the 4 German convoys :
- You have 100% chances of needing to do a naval movement, during this important S/O 39 turn where you also need to conquer Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands is the weather permits, and begin to unfold any other plans you might have.

For what gain ? 4 BP maximum.


In case the French come, assuming there are 2 cruisers for 3-5 surface factors against 2 ships (4 CP), France will have from 5 to 14 surprise points (They are in section 4, and Germany rolls drom 1 to 10). If they have 12-14, they sink all 4 CP. If they have 5 they suprise points sink 1 and abort 3. If they have 6-8 surprise points they sink 2 and abort the rest.

So, for a 15% chances [50% (finding) x 30% (having 12-14 surprise points)] of destroying a mere 4 German CP (Germany have 7 remaining), you have 100% chances of loosing 2 cruisers. That's not very economical.

Moreover, by seting up directly into the Baltic, the German have 50% chances of seeing France forcing it to choose a combined or naval, while not setting up there they have 100% chances of being forced to go there. If the timing is not correct (if the Fine impulses don't end), you might not even have put those CPs at sea).

Well, I prefer as Germany risking those 4 CP (15% chances of loosing them all) and not being forced to choose an impulse type that does not fit my S/O 39 needs (only 50% chances versus 100%).


In the CW setup, no one mentionned leaving all the CPs in ports, and waiting for the first naval action to sortie them all. Why not ?

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think there are two approaches to World in Flames. One sees the game as a recreation of history, and things that would more than likely not have happened in the real war are things they don't want to see in a game of WiF. Other players see the game as a game to play, and any move valid in the rules is a valid play. When these 'gamey' tactics become too common or popular, over time the rules have been strengthened to discourage them though generally without making them completely impossible. A good example is the latest (still optional as all new rules are) US Entry modifiers for any Japanese adventures west of Siam, which are very good and an important addition to the game in my opinion.

I do not know how the breakdown of players of the game would work, but it would be a very interesting survey question. I think the it's-just-a-game camp is bigger, either 60-40 or 2/3 to 1/3 or perhaps even larger.

Personally, I feel that it is just a game and however the players want to play it should be fine. Nonetheless I always support new rules language to get rid of silly game tactics. The new Lending Limits optional is another one I like to reduce the French BPs sent to the CW the turn Vichy is obviously going to be declared for example. But without such rules language, players are going to use whatever legal exploit they can to win the game, and without such a rule I would send all those French BPs to the CW every single time. I do not feel the game should ever force players in certain directions because that was how it was done historically and that is the antithesis of the WiF design philosophy since the beginning and a prime reason behind the great success of this game now over 20 years old and still going strong. And I still strongly object to a few of the decisions that were made during the creation of the new map that were done in this style because some one wants the game played in certain ways but not others, something that should be handled by rules and not by drawing the map.

Whether one chooses to use a gamey tactic is a personal choice. Clearly, Patrice, you would not, and that is fine. But when programming the AI I really feel that it should not be hobbled by such concerns as more often than not it's human opponent certainly won't be, especially on small and very debatable matters of history such as this one. Wosung (where has he been lately? someone get him some free time and bring him back here) long advocated a 'historical' mode for the AI, and I can't remember Steve's decision on that but I feel it would certainly be a game feature that would be used. I do not know how difficult it would be to add such processing to the LAIO scripts, whether certain decisions could be flagged as not possible in 'historical' mode or whether completely separate scripts would be needed. If the latter then clearly it won't be happening for the first release of the game.

Regarding an Allied naval mission to the Baltic, here are some thoughts. Churchill was quite keen to try this; he wanted to use some of the old "R" class battle-ships with an extra skirt of armor to handle all the mines they would hit. After a while his subordinates politely had to tell him no one else wanted to do it. Clearly it would have been a suicide mission. One of the big advantages the Allies have in WiF over their real-life counterparts (really true of all countries, but the Western Allies more than the others), is that they can order the little cardboard pieces around with no concern for human casualties, only for economic costs of replacing them and potential future needs in the game. Until the game has a definitive Manpower rule, which is currently under development in the standard completely-optional-for-now manner, this will remain the case. Even when such a rule is in play, it still won't limit the players at the end of the game, when the goal is to take objectives before time runs out and cardboard casualties do not matter. Going beyond mapower limits to match personnel to new weapons is something I don't think will ever be added to the game.

All that said, it is still good Allied play to send in these French cruisers. Disrupting your enemy's plans is a prime element of good military strategy. Germany can have a lot of goals on the first turn; aside from Poland they may be interested in campaigns in Denmark, Yugoslavia, the Netherlands, Belgium and possibly even France itself (100% ahistorical but no one would advocate not doing it for that reason). If the CA raid works, the Germans have to choose between taking a combined impulse to replenish their convoys or plunging ahead with another land impulse (or perhaps they were planning a different naval mission aimed at Rotterdam). All of these decisions are made with the possibility of bad weather appearing at any time, shortening the turn and restricting land operations considerably. On the first French impulse, the weather is guaranteed to be good. On that impulse, the surprise impulse, the Germans can not react aircraft to deal with this attack. On their own first impulse they could perhaps send out air escorts to the 0 or higher boxes, but they only have four air missions available and I think it is wiser to use some of those same air assets to bomb the Danish and/or Dutch navies or the Yugoslavian army. Perhaps since they don't need much FTR cover in these campaigns they can use a few FTRs in the Baltic I guess, which gains them a little protection. So just the threat of doing this by putting a few French cruisers in Brest might already gain the Allies something. So on the French impulse a couple speed 6 cruisers in the 4 box in the Baltic Sea have a 50% chance of finding the German CP and more than likely sinking or aborting all of them once they roll a 5 or less, and then the Germans have an extra headache in their decision making. So with rule 17 Vichy I send in the French CA, and neither do I have the Germans set up CP in the Baltic at start. As for the future of those French CA, they could end up Free French, that is true, but the French have a lot of CAs and only a limited amount of ports that will go Free French. So I think it is a perfectly valid play. It is not 100% ahistorical, no one could know that. I would wager that if the French Admiralty had asked for purely volunteer crews for such a mission on September 2nd, 1939, they would have found them.

And ironically playing with the newer Vichy system than will be in MWiF, I no longer do this mission as I feel the chit that might be generated for the German side is more important to the eventual Vichy creation system and it's influence on a Gibraltar campaign than the slight potential economic harm done to the Germans.

Regarding putting the AMPH within range of Allied bombers deliberately, I feel that is definitely bad play. And the Allies only need one air mission to sink the AMPH, still leaving plenty to bomb the Ruhr or attempt a ground strike on Rundstedt. Deciding to go for a 1941 Barbarossa before you even set up the pieces is smart. Revealing this to the Allies immediately is not. Having the AMPH sunk and perhaps later in the turn or the year having the TRS impacted as well without rebuilding them is an obvious indicator that a Sea Lion is not in the cards. This is far more valuable to the Allies than a couple of lost German production points on the first turn. If I am going to do a '41 'Barb I even lay down a German and Italian AMPH on the first turn to keep the other side guessing for a little while longer, though it is scary to waste BPs like that if the Russians are willing to attempt 'stuffing' the border.

I agree wholeheartedly. And add one tick to the quantity of "gamers" versus historical replicators please.

Also as you mention in a later post, the tactic encourages the German to invade Denmark in order to extract his "pound of flesh" in revenge. But the 1939 entry chits are much better for the US than those in 1940, so this may be a large consideration as well. Also if rain comes in impulse 3, the CW can interfere with (and should be positioned to threaten so) the conquest of Denmark. So normally, the Germans wait until the weather is fine.

Overall, there are more pluses than minuses to a Baltic Sea sortie for the Allies, IMO. As for the argument that it should not be done because it is ahistorical - well, change the rules or forget it! Should the allies never invade Yugoslavia in 1943 or Sardinia in 1940 or China in 1944 because they are all ahistorical? Should the Axis decline aligning Turkey or Spain if they can? Or attacking Spain? Those are ahistorical too. Especially aligning Spain since the Axis would have to commit the compounding ahistorical sin of first invading Gibraltar.

I do agree that the German should not be intimidated into waiting to take a Naval or Combined to put his convoys out. A good antitdote actually is to put a 4-3 fighter into the zero box in Impulse 1 - costs 1 air mission but requires the French to spend 4 surprise on combat choice.

[brian brian]

There is more to playing WiF than solely economic returns. I think one of Steve's bigger challenges is quantifying the value of forcing an enemy reaction to your moves. The Allies don't get a lot of these opportunities in the first years of the war; the Axis hold the strategic and usually the tactical initiative (I'm not talking about the turn Initiative of deciding who moves first). The Allies can afford to lose 2 French cruisers, easily. With CLiF it's even more of a simple decision....if the Germans put their shipping out to sea.

Denmark is a tricky place. More than a few German players have discovered that an aggressive British player can land on the northern island, backed by some powerful assets afloat. I now send a full MECH or ARM corps to take Frederikshavn, and wait till fine or snow weather to insure this happens on the 1st impulse, regardless of the situation in the actual Baltic. A British base in that hex can be quite a thorn.

I do not think it is automatic that the Germans have to invade the Netherlands, at least until Japanese entry in the war. I know we discussed the ramifications a long time ago in this thread. Without trying for the Netherlands on the first turn, it is not that difficult to do one naval move later in the turn after the surprise impulse. If the Germans are going all-in on a France First, they will just ignore the Baltic entirely anyway; 2.25 BPs won't make any difference in that case.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: brian brian
It is not completely necessary to set up CP in the Baltic. If you don't have a super ambitious plan for the first turn, you can probably squeeze in a combined impulse at some point to send out the CPs in a bit safer of an environment. At set-up they are quite vulnerable to a French CA raid....and then you'll just end up having to do a Combined impulse later anyway, 50% of the time.

I do not agree because :
1) I don't like as the allied wasting French ships in the Baltic as I already said, I think it is stupid because the French Navy would never have sacrified ships in such a non important mission. I don't like sacrifying ships / units in gamey tactics that would never have existed in reality.

The French have a chance not to be wasted if they find the German convoys. They may be able to abort after getting in their licks. Or if Impulse 3 is rain, and Copenhagen is not taken, any face-up units can RTB with a Naval or Combined action.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: brian brian
It is not completely necessary to set up CP in the Baltic. If you don't have a super ambitious plan for the first turn, you can probably squeeze in a combined impulse at some point to send out the CPs in a bit safer of an environment. At set-up they are quite vulnerable to a French CA raid....and then you'll just end up having to do a Combined impulse later anyway, 50% of the time.

I do not agree because :
1) I don't like as the allied wasting French ships in the Baltic as I already said, I think it is stupid because the French Navy would never have sacrified ships in such a non important mission. I don't like sacrifying ships / units in gamey tactics that would never have existed in reality.

The French have a chance not to be wasted if they find the German convoys. They may be able to abort after getting in their licks. Or if Impulse 3 is rain, and Copenhagen is not taken, any face-up units can RTB with a Naval or Combined action.

Patrice,

Beside the loss of convoys, Germany might also lose BPs if the Swedish resources do not get delivered.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Beside the loss of convoys, Germany might also lose BPs if the Swedish resources do not get delivered.

The same way he risks that by not setting up the CP at sea.

Also, brian brian says :

quantifying the value of forcing an enemy reaction to your moves.

But, by not setting up the CP at start, you are forcing yourself to do something you don't want to in a middle of a land war without even the enemy having to force you. At least, let the enemy try it, it is less than 50% sucessfull.

[composer99]

French in the 4 box vs. German convoys have a 50% chance of finding and doing some damage on the surprise impulse and on any subsequent impulse. If Denmark is not taken they could do it again in Nov/Dec (been there, done that). As Germany, I would not want to give my opponents a 50% chance of success on anything if I can help it, especially not that early in the game. Some of us trust to our luck. Some of us prefer not to.

[sajbalk]

I begin with the convoy points at sea. If the allies sail and find, then you have to take a combined to get the CP out. If you do not begin with the CP at sea, GER will have to take a combined anyway. GER has many spare CP and will gain more once Finland is aligned.

[Gurggulk]

Germany Naval Setup Global War and Fascist Tide
With or without Limited Overseas Supply and Oil options

Suggestions for Setup based on discussion thread.

Option A

Kiel:
Graf Spee, Schlesien, 2 Submarines, Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Admiral Hipper, Blücher, 1 Convoy

Stettin:  
Deutschland, Schleswig-Holstein, Amph, Transport, 1 Convoy  

Konigsberg, 3 Convoy
Memel, 3 Convoy

Baltic Sea, 3 Convoy

Option B

Kiel:
Deutschland, Graf Spee, Schlesien, Schleswig-Holstein, 2 Submarines, Amph, Transport, 1 Convoy

Stettin:
Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Admiral Hipper, Blücher, 1 Convoy  

Konigsberg, 3 Convoy
Memel, 3 Convoy

Baltic Sea, 3 Convoy

Option C  

Kiel:
2 Submarines

Kolberg:
8 convoy

Stettin:
3 Convoy, Schlesien, Schleswig-Holstein

Konigsberg:
Deutschland, Graf Spee, Amph, Transport

Memel:
Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Admiral Hipper, Blücher 

[peskpesk]

As I promised Steve to go through all the forums post of all AI for MWiF – XXX, here is the result for Germany. Some good suggestions from forum members. I have now compiled it to define 4 possible starting convoy routes for the German, from which the AIO will chose from.

Since the Germany can minimise the effect of the Western Allied surprise port strike is the reserve convoy placements also interesting. The basic plan is to try avoid good Commonwealth ports strikes opportunities. And since Germany has quite a reserve of CP, the only safe ports (Kongsingsberg and Memel ) are reserved for surface combat ships and transports.

As always if you have any comments about these convoy routes, we would love to hear them. If nothing else, you could help us decide on their probabilities.


################################################################

German Convoys plans/routes Global war

Route 1: Swedish resources (Standard).
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea. Keeps a high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 8 CP in reserve.

reserve convoy placements %
A) Kolberg: 8 CP 44%
B) Kolberg: 4 CP Stettin 4 CP 35%
C) Stettin 8 CP 10 %
D) Kolberg 4 CP Stettin 2 CP Kiel 2 CP 10%
E) Kiel 8 CP 1%

Route 2: Sea supply.
Route is used to get home one Swedish resources and sea supply in the Baltic Sea. Keeps a very low risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. The drawback is that one extra naval move is required to get home all Swedish resources. Might be tough to make in the first turn, depending on the turn length. 10 CP in reserve.

reserve convoy placements %
A) Kolberg: 8 CP Stettin 2 CP 44%
B) Kolberg: 4 CP Stettin 6 CP 30%
C) Stettin 10 CP 10 %
D) Stettin 8 CP Kiel 2 CP 10 %
E) Kolberg 8 CP Kiel 2 CP 5%
F) Kiel 10 CP 1%

Route 3: Swedish and Finnish/Norwegian resources.
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea and for future us of either Finnish/Norwegian resource. The advantage is that one extra naval move is saved. Keeps a very high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 7 CP in reserve

reserve convoy placements %
A) Kolberg: 7 CP 49%
B) Kolberg: 4 CP Stettin 2 CP Kiel 1 CP 30%
C) Kolberg 6 CP Kiel 1 CP 10%
D) Stettin 6 CP Kiel 1 CP 10%
E) Kiel 7 CP 1%

Route 4: None.
Keeps a zero risk profile against Allied declaration of war. The plan is to later in the turn to go out with 3 CP to get home all Swedish resources. The drawback is that extra one naval move is required. Might be tough to make in the first turn, depending on the turn length. 11 CP in reserve.

reserve convoy placements %
A) Kolberg: 8 CP Stettin 2 CP Kiel 1 CP 49%
B) Kolberg: 4 CP Stettin 6 CP Kiel 1 CP 40%
C) Stettin 10 CP Kiel 1 CP 10 %
D) Kiel 11 CP 1%


Base Convoy Deployment %
Route 1 50%
Route 2 25%
Route 3 5 %
Route 4 20 %


Optional rules that might affect Convoy Deployment %
• Commonwealth Lnd3 and ATR draw (port strike threat).
• Limited Overseas Supply
• In the presence of the enemy
• Rough Seas
• Convoys In Flame
• Oil tankers
• Cruisers in flames
• Oil Rules
• Saving Oil Resources and Build Points
• AIO Strategy

[peskpesk]

Route 1: Swedish resources (Standard).

[peskpesk]

Route 2: Sea supply.

[peskpesk]

Route 3: Swedish and Finnish/Norwegian resources.

[peskpesk]

Route 4: None.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk
Route 1: Swedish resources (Standard).
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea. Keeps a high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 8 CP in reserve.

Route 3: Swedish and Finnish/Norwegian resources.
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea and for future us of either Finnish/Norwegian resource. The advantage is that one extra naval move is saved. Keeps a very high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 7 CP in reserve

If you put 3 CP at sea (Route 1) (in this so dangerous Baltic Sea infested with suicidal French cruisers & submarines [:D]), why not put 4 nethertheless, even if only to have 1 CP to absorb losses and not dictate you to sail out 1 replacing CP ?
After all, 3 or 4 CP is the same target profile, and saving an obligation to have 1 naval move can be usefull IMO.

I mean, if you put 3, put 4. Putting 3 have no interest IMO.

[michaelbaldur]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: peskpesk
Route 1: Swedish resources (Standard).
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea. Keeps a high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 8 CP in reserve.

Route 3: Swedish and Finnish/Norwegian resources.
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea and for future us of either Finnish/Norwegian resource. The advantage is that one extra naval move is saved. Keeps a very high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 7 CP in reserve

If you put 3 CP at sea (Route 1) (in this so dangerous Baltic Sea infested with suicidal French cruisers & submarines [:D]), why not put 4 nethertheless, even if only to have 1 CP to absorb losses and not dictate you to sail out 1 replacing CP ?
After all, 3 or 4 CP is the same target profile, and saving an obligation to have 1 naval move can be usefull IMO.

I mean, if you put 3, put 4. Putting 3 have no interest IMO.

good point [:D]

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: peskpesk
Route 1: Swedish resources (Standard).
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea. Keeps a high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 8 CP in reserve.

Route 3: Swedish and Finnish/Norwegian resources.
Route is used to get home all Swedish resources, sea supply in the Baltic Sea and for future us of either Finnish/Norwegian resource. The advantage is that one extra naval move is saved. Keeps a very high risk profile against the Allied declaration of war. 7 CP in reserve

If you put 3 CP at sea (Route 1) (in this so dangerous Baltic Sea infested with suicidal French cruisers & submarines [:D]), why not put 4 nethertheless, even if only to have 1 CP to absorb losses and not dictate you to sail out 1 replacing CP ?
After all, 3 or 4 CP is the same target profile, and saving an obligation to have 1 naval move can be usefull IMO.

I mean, if you put 3, put 4. Putting 3 have no interest IMO.

If you put 4 CP out you risk 4 sunk just for the small benefit that you do not need to put a CP out when Finland enters the war. That could be a year into the future. Why risk one extra CP when you can usually do a combined during the first winter and move out the cp needed for Finland without any trouble.

If the allies find the CPs during the suprise it is not unlikely that more than one CP will be sunk or aborted. So the need for 1 CP for losses seem low.

Edit: I see that putting 4 CP in the Baltic has benefits. I am just saying that putting 3 there has a benefit as well.