GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Turkey. Middle East.

End of Impulse.
(1) What to do as the German army is getting collapsed on all sides?
(2) Hold on, and fight for as necessary, as many objective cities as possible until the end of turn 36 (Jul/Aug 1945).
(3) Of course, sound defensive lines, where possible, are put in place to such objectives.
(4) Amazingly, trying to hold as many objective cities as possible to the very end brings clarity of purpose and strategy for Germany (rail, land moves, land combat).
(5) German rail 1/3. Rommel railed from Ankara to Istanbul, Turkey.
(6) Allies in position, and likely to do so, break rail from Turkey to Istanbul next impulse.
(7) German rail 2/3. XXXIV inf corps railed from Konigsberg to Warsaw.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. The Eastern Front.

Belorussia 48,51.
Ground Support.
(1) [clear, fine, opposed] Ju 88S XR(3/2), not really about adding to an already auto blitz but flying the only wing that can reach the target in order to hopefully blunt the expected Soviet defensive ground support to this 2-2 partisan.
(2) The Soviets now wishing that they had placed the 4-2 vs 2-2 partisan here. But hindsight is 20/20.
(3) IL-4(2) w/Yak-9k(6) with 2 DF = 4 DF -> -9.5 + 20.8B (100% PWIN, 100% PNL, 100% PBK) = +11.3B (100%, 87.2%, 80.8%)
(4) GSPT Air-to-Air RD1(-1 AX/+1 AL): USSR=13 -> none, GER=5 -> DX -> Yak-9K shot down, PIL survives.
(5) Offensive GSPT RES -> 2 GSF vs 4 DF -> +1 +11.3B (100%, 87.2%, 80.8%) = +12.3B(100%, 90.9%,86.5%).

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Land Combat.
(6) LC (+12.3B) RES: FOR(OYP < 300) = 594 (no), 2D10=11, LCR=12+0+11=23, 2-2 partisan, destroyed without loss or flip, breakthrough.
(7) Manstein uses the breakthrough to better rearrange the attacking units for optimum defense.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. The Western Front. Balkans. Italy.

End of Impulse.
(1) German rail 3/3. WP MIL. Konigsberg -> Amsterdam.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Impulse #242.

Weather & Actions.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

(1) Full naval moves for the USN, RN always takes time as the naval is a very part of (M)WiF enjoyment for me.
(2) Given the late stage of the war and that USA, CW & USSR all took super combines (full naval moves for all three), it took me well over a day to make naval moves given two fronts.
(3) The Western Allies objectives at this late stage of the war, really boiled down to just two:
(a) Grab as many objective cities as possible WITHOUT being reckless. That is; taking a reasonable chance is ok but being reckless is NOT.
(b) Minimize idle non-oil RPs as oiling very unit eligible is GIVEN (REQUIREMENT) at this late stage.
(4) Also, it's not in my nature to ignore threats to convoy lines if these threats can be addressed WITHOUT interfering with primary objectives.

Atlantic & Pacific Sub Threats.
(5) Atlantic & Pacific Sub Threats to the Western Allies.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

PTO.
(1) The capture of Diego Suarez, Madagascar, while an objective for the allies for a long time, has popped up in priority given only 2 turns left before final scoring.
(2) However; to be able to get the US marines in place this turn for invasion would require some (extremely) good luck and planning.

IJN Intercept.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

PTO.
West Indian Ocean.
(1) Amazing luck was with the USN & USMC in getting the forces in place to invade and capture Diego Suarez this impulse.
(2) Also, the USN moved 2 resupply (i.e., reorg) TRS into the West Indian Ocean in order to pick up the invading marines from Diego Suarez later in the turn, pivot to capture the port of Tamato for a push this turn or next, and liberate Antananorivo (and Madagascar).
(3) Two US inf divs are in the invasion task force, 1 div will be invade Diego Suarez with the two USMC corps.
(4) The second US inf div will invade the island across from Tamato, which will allow the USMC marine to debark on the island and then walk across to the port next impulse after that.
(5) Ideally, the allies wanted a USMC div for that job but the CA carrying the 2nd USMC was successfully intercepted and stopped in the China Sea.
(6) This would have allowed the mar div to "walk" across next allied impulse.
(7) However; the US can't complain as only extremely good luck allowed the US to get the forces in place THIS turn to successfully liberate Diego Suarez.

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Bay of Bengal. South China Sea.
(8) CW garrison reinforces for India are at sea. I hate "enemy" partisans and; therefore, spend (probably too much) time, effort and resources to minimize their chance.

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China Sea. Sea of Japan.
(9) USN, RN objectives are to break supply to the IJA/IJN pocket adjacent to Shanghai and clear IJN bombardment, carrier based ground support to that pocket.
(10) The US & CW hope to have a go this impulse at eliminating that pocket, but clearing the IJN out of the China Sea is an absolute must.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

PTO.
(1/3). Bay of Bengal [fine].
(1) RN, USN, no search.
(2) Wanting to preserve their I-boats in order to maximize their threat next turn, IJN (non-phasing), no search, no combat.

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(2/3). South China Sea [fine].
(1) USN, RN, no search.
(2) Again, wanting to preserve their I-boats in order to maximize their threat next turn, IJN (non-phasing), no search, no combat.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

PTO.
(3/3) China Sea.
Combat Logs.
(1) In playing this out I captured, for myself at least, the insight into the fanaticism and desperation of the IJN naval forces against the overwhelming and massive USN in the closing days of the war.
(2) Also, this "Battle of the China Sea", had (for me again) a bit of the feel of the "Marians Turkey Shoot".
(3) While this was a resounding victory for the USN, their air-to-air performance was sub par and were fortunate to have such dominance; otherwise, things could have turned very much differently.
(4) The USN, especially in the first round, was focused on clearing out any potential IJN shore bombardment and breaking supply to the Shanghai pocket.
(5) I would have to say from an historical perspective that this was the US 3rd fleet commanded of Adm Spruance, vs 5th fleet commanded by Adm Halsey.
(6) The US 3rd and 5th Pacific fleet were the same fleet (i.e., ships) but change designations depending who was in command (i.e., Adm Spruance or Halsey; respectively).
(7) The fact that the USN carrier planes went after IJN BBs vs CV/CVLs in the first round points to a more mission focus commander in charge (Adm Spruance).
(8) If they had instead targeted the IJN carriers then that would have be consistent with Adm Halsey.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

PTO.
(3/3) China Sea. Round 1.

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AA screen CAP lost -> IJN AA (-1/2)=8,9=8 -> Catalina PBY-1 aborted (1 bomb screened), 3 more bombs screened (4 total), 25 of 29 bombs make it through.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

PTO.
(3/3) China Sea. Round 2.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

PTO.
(3/3) China Sea. Round 3.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

The Eastern Front. Black Sea [fine].
(1) Soviet Tu-2 XR naval air -> [3], will search for lone Romania supply CP.
(2) No air reaction.
(3) Search(G/B=AL/AX): USSR=5, ROM=10 -> no find, missed by 1.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

BOA.
(1/2). Faeroes Gap [fine].
(1) RN, USN, no search.
(2) GER Sub Gp (non-phasing), no search, no combat.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Search.

BOA.
(2/2). Cape St. Vincent [fine].
(1) RN, USN ,French, no search.
(2) German U-boats (non-phasing) search (already flipped due to intercepts).
(3) Air reaction. RN Videbest, Gib -> [0].
(4) U-boats commit.
(5) Search(R/G=AX/AL): GER=7, RN/USN=2 -> AL[4] find, elect to fight surface vs all 3 U-boat flotillas [4][0][0] with 7 SPs.
(6) Allies use 6 SPs to increase U-boat risk from 2D, 1A to X, D, 3A.
(7) RN, USN Risk(D,2A) RES:
(a) D vs RN CA Trinidad(2-5-7)=2 -> D
(b) A vs (D) RN CA Trinidad(2-5-8)=7 & A
(c) A vs RN CA Southampton(3-6-6)=2 -> A.
(8) U-boat Risk(X,D,3A) RES:
(a) X vs Flotilla 4844 (5-5-6)=3 -> sunk
(b) D vs Flotilla 4846(4-5-8)=3 -> D
(c) A vs (D) 4846(4-5-9)=5 & A
(d & e) 2A vs Flotilla 4856 & A.
(9) RN & USN clear the CSV for the cost of a damaged CA and aborted CA.
(10) German loses U-boat flotilla, with a second one damaged and a third one aborted (to Istanbul, Turkey).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

BOA.
(1) I just realized I forgot to include all this sorry ... better out of order than not presenting (I believe).

Faeroes Gap. Bay of Biscay.

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North Atlantic. Central Atlantic. East Coast. Cape St. Vincent.

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MTO.
East Med.
(2) Istanbul (objective city), Western allies move forces in place to isolated (from both Germany & Soviets) and then capture (either this or next turn).
(3) Amphs moving from UK into the Med, and CSV, for next turn to get troops ashore on the European side of Turkey in order to capture Istanbul and help capture Balkan objective cities.
(4) Need an allied HQ (likely Monty) if not needed in the Balkans.
(5) The Western Allied and Soviet alliance friction is now such that the Western Allies will start pulling out of Persia & Iraq without care of increasing partisan chances.
(6) The Western Allies need those US, CW & French HQs for the Balkans & Istanbul!

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West Med & Italian Coast.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

Western Front.

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Baltic Sea. Task Forces.
(1) Western Allies plan to hold (for now) in the Denmark sector and flank east via amphibious landing at Danzig.
(2) The goal is Warsaw and central Germany.
(3) Also, invasion force is put to sea to "liberate" and capture Helsinki.
(4) Looks like the alliance between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union may start to become publicly strained?
(5) While Germany, and Japan, are still formable, it's obvious that their defeats are inevitable.
(6) Looks like the Western allies are (also) conducting operations with an eye towards what the post war world will look like.

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North Sea. Task Forces.
(7) Bombardment, reorg (air on coast) support.
(8) Also, invasion force slated for a combination amphibious & overland assault to liberate Rotterdam and get adjacent to Amsterdam (objective city).
(9) Oslo, Norway (objective city)? Maybe next turn, but only if it does interfere with operations to liberate/capture objective cites in Germany, Poland, Balkans and Finland.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

BOA. Intercept Combat Logs.
(1) Almost forgot to include there.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Naval Move.

Western Allied Convoy Lines, Production.
(1) It's like playing "Whack-A-Mole", you see and idle RP, CP chain needing 1 or more CPs to complete to move that idle non-oil RP to factory.
(2) You move CP(s) to complete that chain, and MWIF doesn't use that now available CP chain, "re-does" most/all routings, and gives you the same or even more idle non-oil RPs.
(3) The Western allies with a LOT of spare CPs tried to overwhelm MWIF in order to get those idle non-oil RPs to factories.
(4) This including trying, hoping that CW controlled non-oil RPs could be shipped west through the Panama Canal into the Atlantic to the UK.
(5) It was interesting trying to get those chains to take.
(6) But to be honest, a significant constraining factor was the German U-boat blocking (i.e., intercepting) force in the CSV.
(7) Anyway, I'll make sure at the end of this turn by hook or crook that every non-oil RP that could/should be legitimately transported to factory will be transported to factory.
(8) I just didn't have the mental energy to do that at this point!
(9) Again, the objective is to maximize allied production GIVEN that all units that can be oiled WILL BE oiled.
(10) That is more significant at this point in the war than production.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #2. Ground Strike.

(1) At this point in the war and with unlimited air actions for US, CW & USSR (super combine all three), this ground strike phase took just as long, maybe longer, than the naval phase.
(2) While only 3 ground strikes in Asia to process, there were 8 by the Soviets and 19 by the Western Allies for a grand total of 27.
(3) Given that a significant number were opposed (mainly on the Western front), this took time.
(4) I hope the following (Ground Strike posts) convey the magnitude, scope and purpose of the allied ground strikes this late in the war.

Asian Theater.
Combat Logs.

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(1/3) China 80,149.

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(2/3) Manchuria 56,153.

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(3/3) Chengchow, China.

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