Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland

[rmonical]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
My rule of thumb is: 2 RR engineers per front, and 6-12 more assigned directly to STAVKA. 20 is too low imo.

While your methods of steering railroad engineers are clever, I think it is best to beat the problem by brute force and not be using maneuver forces to herd RR engineers around.

Since the Soviets are building a lot of forts, I go with one RR Engineer Brigade per army.

[hfarrish]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

My rule of thumb is: 2 RR engineers per front, and 6-12 more assigned directly to STAVKA. 20 is too low imo.

While your methods of steering railroad engineers are clever, I think it is best to beat the problem by brute force and not be using maneuver forces to herd RR engineers around.

I tend to prefer 4 per Front as an alternative...this seems to get rail cleaned up pretty quick in the sectors that matter regardless of how many veer off into stupid side rail missions.

I also agree on brute force. For starters trying to block them into the right paths is just one more painful level of unnecessary micromanagement on top of what you have to slog through in the game anyway...

[Tom Hunter]

Question for the group, is T36 the last blizzard turn with snow on T37 or is T37 the last blizzard turn with snow on T38?

Total losses at T35

Axis
Men 877005
Guns 5906
AFV 2533
Air 3282

Soviet
Men 3431806
Guns 48174
AFV 17021
Air 14806

Red Army has 5.9 million men 61,000 guns, 3400 tanks and 7100 planes German army has 3.6 million men, 36,000 guns, 3500 tanks, and 3000 planes. Axis allies add another 1.5 million men, 13,700 guns and 300 or so tanks and maybe 900 to 1000 planes, it appears some of the allied airforces have been pulled back.

I’m not sure how this compares with other games. On the map all the areas that have large Soviet troop concentrations have many forts at 0 and 1, further back I’ve deployed a combination of many units and a few fortified zones to build up defensive lines is my rear areas.

Strategically I want to stay forward during the snow turns that are coming, and then pull back to my rail net during the mud. That will give Saper222 a zone of 10-20 hexes that does not have any German rail at the start of his offensive.

In the air I Saper222 adjusted his strategy brining fighter bases forward to provide more intensive CAP. This started chewing up my airfield bombing raids and began to hurt my pilot quality by slowing the rate of increase in experience. In the last few turns I have concentrated on adding air to ground attacks and hitting units that have no CAP, like the Rumanians that are garrisoning Sevastopol. The change is helping me improve pilot quality again, though both sides over all losses are lower. I have reached the point where the Red Airforce occasionally wins battles straight up, never with equal odds, but a win is a win, and there are times where German attacks or defenses are adversely impacted by Red Airforce control of the sky. Since an important part of Saper222s play is using concentrated airpower I am very happy about this, otherwise he would be pounding me much harder.

Down in the South Saper222 has put a line of 3 infantry division stacks infront of Stalino, and I am finding this impossible to break. He has done the same thing at Tula, and also at Moscow. Near Moscow I have railhead close to the front, and every turn I have been able to defeat one of these stacks, at Tula we hammer each other but my successes are mostly North and South of Saper222s major concentration.

Industry is completely evacuated to a line that runs Gorky, Saratov, Stalingrad. Each of those cities still has some stuff, but this because I want to let some of the factories evacuated earlier repair before I pull the next round of similar factories out.

In the North I have been hammering the Finns, and I am considering sending more troops that way for a drive on Leningrad. The Finnish army is down to 260,000 troops five turns ago it was at 287,000. The armies attacking there are winning a lot of victories, and I am right on my rail lines, so if I keep pushing I think I may pull some Germans up into the area.

The area near Kursk and Kharkov is a railroad wasteland, so I have been sliding the troops there North towards the railheads near Tula and hammering some German infantry on the way. We have reached a point where Saper222 can stop me in many places but not all of them, and I am trying to do what damage I can. I launched 17 successful attacks T25, mostly deliberate, and 4 or five that did not succeed.

[Disgruntled Veteran]

There are 4 blizzard turns in February...after that snow, unless your on random then it could be anything. 4 in December, 5 in January, 4 in February. So I guess 37 is the last Blizzard turn iirc.

[Flaviusx]

Your numbers are surprisingly high considering. But as the blizzard winds down it's going to get harder to increase them. He'll stop running and start fighting back, not to mention increasing your attrition losses. At some point soon he needs to do this, if he wants to lock you down and keep the Red Army static going into summer at any rate.

I wouldn't slow down on the evac. Get it out of the way ASAP while you have the initiative. Strip everything bare. It will all come online by summer. Sapper loves to abuse the strategic bombing model of this game (which vastly exaggerates the efficiency of these two airforces to conduct such attacks.) He'll happily take whacks at Gorky, Stalingrad and Saratov given the opportunity and reduce their production anyways.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter
Total losses at T35
Air 3282

Soviet
Men 3431806
Guns 48174
AFV 17021
Axis
Men 877005
Guns 5906
AFV 2533

Air 14806

Red Army has 5.9 million men 61,000 guns, 3400 tanks and 7100 planes German army has 3.6 million men, 36,000 guns, 3500 tanks, and 3000 planes. Axis allies add another 1.5 million men, 13,700 guns and 300 or so tanks and maybe 900 to 1000 planes, it appears some of the allied airforces have been pulled back.

I’m not sure how this compares with other games. On the map all the areas that have large Soviet troop concentrations have many forts at 0 and 1, further back I’ve deployed a combination of many units and a few fortified zones to build up defensive lines is my rear areas.

Considering that u as i understand it plays with old blizzard rules. He has taken about as few losses as i ever seen and i been following every AAR since the game was released.
Far lower than historic ofc, and thats is even when ppl with out understanding the differences using the "blütige verluste" which infact doesnt show the real losses as stuff as for example frostbites, sickness, trenchfoot and so on isnt in part of the "blütige verluste" tally.
Sapper being at 3.6m german OOB at this points confirms that.

As i told u earlier the russian side doesnt give historical replacement. Opposite on the german side u get about 1m more Manpower in reinforcement/replacement/not taken into account the leaving, in the first year aka until end of june 42. This means and u can start a 42 campaign too see what the team judged to be the historical end of june 42 OOB.
That the german OOBs number come summer offensive 42 tend to be from inflated to highly inflated. From some where from 3.2 to 3.6-7m from when going worst to going best, until now.
As he alrdy has 3.6m now, tho he prolly has fewer disabled that means fewer kickbacks non the less the influx of reinforcements only start to arrive now. That alone is 600k ish IIRC. Then there is replacements and what comes back as kickbacks and the damaged device rules.
I wouldnt be supprised to see sapper at end june 42 being above 4 mio germans in OOB numbers, very possibly well above.

As the historic OOB numbers are at 2.779k IIRC that essentially historicly speaking. that the german army was in decline Manpower wise had they had to borrow and steal from AGC and AGN to get AGS into a viable offensive state. Having a limited offrensive compared to 41 at the expense at having a fairly static front in 2 of the 3 AGs. Now when u have 4.0m men instead the dynamcis is very different.

Now the in game dynamics is you dont really have to steal and borrow as ur units are in much better shape/state than historic one generally speaking. Also it means hwre u could only assemple 800k-1000k depending on exactly where u make teh cut off for offensive operations/operation blue. Which essentially would mean that after u historiclly would lose 300-400k any offensive would grind to a halt as strength of the offensive formation would fall to a point where offensive operations wouldnt be possible. Ingame terms not having the CV to making succesfull attacks genrally speaking.
Now when u have 4m men. The dynamics are different. It means and u can have a much high offensive punch. Instead of having 800k-100k u have some thing like 2m men. Which means the offensives can be much more comprehensive when compared to historic and the staying power of those offensives are much larger as they can afford to lose much more men being becoming offensively unviable.
Some thing like 1m men buffer instead of 300-400k.

U can just look and compare the numbers to the start of the 41 offensive. Having 4m instead of 3.3m This essentially means u in a better shape to make an offensive as u actullay grow in numbers and having significantly higher OOB numbers. So instead of having the historical dynamic of being an army in decline, u have an army on the rise.(historicly there are only 4 months IIRC where the german OOB numbers are on the rise and 3 of those are in the spring aka rapustisa non operation months of 42 and 43.
And it isnt a question of doing better in game then historic as this is "hardcoded".
There never ever has been a AAR where u have reached the historical OOB numbers and when u do the actual math u get to see that u indeed get around 1m Manpower that historically never was there.
Some one i forget his name keeps talking about WITE being fantasy land but i never seen him mention or complain about this.

So what does that mean for ur game. As ur game has developped its easy. Ur toast. IMHO there isnt really any doubt about how 42 will go.


Does that man that every game with this in mind wins in 42. Obviously not, more on that later. As have been a hot topic as of recent is the "ease" of the russian side of making counter attacks in 41. Alto attention has been made of the 1vs1 rule. Not that the rule in it self isnt odd and highly questionble.
It really isnt the issue. Its the combat system in it self. Even with out the 1to1 rule u could still make many succcesfull attacks tho ofc less. It isnt a result of that rule but a result of the function of how the combat/CV/ and modified CV system works.

Again some one that shall be unnamed actually made among other an analysis of how biased the offensive is in the game some 2 years ago. Its just this facts that people have realized by trial and error and is using to pile up devices to win this counter attacks in 41.
Ofc when this is used by the german side to make unhistoric advances this isnt noted much and certainly get harshed on as u see the soviet conuter attacks gets.
The fact that in effect call it supply, call it a bleeded offensive if u look at the numbers through out operation Blue the soviet army end up stopping the german advance with numbers that isnt particular much high and certainly not many times high than the german and axis allieds number tho they do take more casulties on the way. Is this a possibility to recreate in game?


Any how this facts leads to why u have no chance and ur toast. Sapper either intuiativly as a result of his experience of the game or he has analyzed on this too. AS long as u keep that 4m man on teh offensive and now with much betetr logistics in 42 than in 41 as RR is repaired and teh rules concerning advances into russia and the modifier that goes with that is much less than in 41.
The answer to that and way to stop it has been having to get a much larger army than historical to counter this. In part leading to the run aways to save ur army as u cant rely on the lacking replacement to make up ur losses.
Trying in 42 to make carpets of units to slow down/bleed the axis motorized units MP. I highly doubt u will be in a posistion to do this tho.

I dont see ur OOB rise at a pace that can actually more than just keep pace with the rise of the axis OOB numbers. The axis side total OOB numbers will be close to your total OOB numbers come summer.



Now i said why dont all germans win in 42. It fairly simple if u take that 1 mio extra men and distributate it evenly over 100 hexes from N to S it makes no difference at all. Far far to many ppl get into a far to defensive mentally not using the extra men offensivly in a concentrated manner and doesnt have as good as 41 as sapper had.
Non the less if u spread that 1 mio man over 100 hexes and try to defend. U need a Peltion isk/STEF78 type defense to get a fighting chance on defense else teh extra men simply isnt gona do any difference cuz of the inherit offenensiv combat system bias.
By giving away the intiative they also give away the inherit offensive advantages.
The exact same mechanics behind the succsfull russian counter attacks in 41 can be and is to some extend used by the german side.
It seems far to few really understands these and take fully advantage of them. Those that do well u can see it in AARs.

Not that is has any bearing on ur game. Recently the "mild blizzard" has been introduced. But in a way and it happens all to often apparently ppl realy cant see tricle down and causality effects before it happens to them apparently.
It seems no one has thot about what happens when u introduced the mild blizzard effects, with lower losses, less teritorial gains. Which in it self is more historic, but nothing has been done in respects to the different dynamics that the game has in 42 as compared to historic 42.
While very few games at leased in AARs has made it so far. Looking at rmonicals AAR with teh mild blizzard.
As the blizzard had been made more "historic" u alter the balance comming out of the blizzard, but nothing has been done to the added 1 mio men that the germans gain and how that alters teh historic vs in game dynamics of any 42 campaigns if the added Manpower is used in a concentrated offensive manner.

Making what when u play top end german players have seen even before the mild blizzard was introduced. Those that know how to make panzerballs. Use the extra 1 mio Manpower offensivly instead of getting into a defensiv mentality.
Well lets see more examples, but im in no way supprised actually it so very predictable what happens in the rmonical AAR. Alot more of that will be seen.

And ppl still argue we should tie the russian army down in 41. Not look at all at why u indeed is forced to have larger russian army and why come 42 and why it in mild blizzard games becomes even more necesarry as the balance comming out of the blizzard with mild blizzard all Things given will be changed compared to the old blizzard rules markedly.

Essentially now as ur offensive power is gona be much greater in 42 totally bypsing the historic facts of the german army being in continual decline with haivng a far to high replacement/rate and not accounting for the high number of men leaving the Eastern front in the computation of Manpower. U have a situasion in game of getting as good as 41 as possible to set up a much more massive 42 offensive will by far be the norm of mild blizzard games. Instead of having some thing like historical 41 losses and Manpower gains/losses that left the historic 42 offensive a much smaller undertaking then historic 41 offensive. Making in game the 42 offensive signigficantly more importand than the 41 offensive. Assuming u dont botch the 41 offensive completly.
Also in face of such realisties what is the soviet answer gona be? More force presevations = more running or less?

As said a number of times on this forum. Be carefull for what u wish for.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

We have know he was toast after Moscow fell, he is new and will learn the hard way.

I am all for historical loses and OOB's, but the combat engine does not give historical lose ratio's. Which have been posted a number of times on these forums.

6:1 1941
5:1 1942
4:1 1943
3:1 1944

These are losses not counting surrenders.

As we know starting in late 42 the ratio is 1.5 to 1 to say nothing of 41 - mid 42.

If it was close to historical, Russia would need much more manpower and Germany less.

I am all for balance and have lobbied to add things to SHC side and lobbied for nerfing GHC side. The Lvov mega pockets are not historical, but has been tested by players without a larger then historical pocket GHC is toast.

1v1=2v1 is clearly a game destroyer and always has been all the better players know this other then a few fanboys and want it removed.

Tom Hunter would be VPed out be the end of March if this is a SD game as my last two have been.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

We have know he was toast after Moscow fell, he is new and will learn the hard way.

I am all for historical loses and OOB's, but the combat engine does not give historical lose ratio's. Which have been posted a number of times on these forums.

6:1 1941
5:1 1942
4:1 1943
3:1 1944

These are losses not counting surrenders.

As we know starting in late 42 the ratio is 1.5 to 1 to say nothing of 41 - mid 42.

If it was close to historical, Russia would need much more manpower and Germany less.

I am all for balance and have lobbied to add things to SHC side and lobbied for nerfing GHC side. The Lvov mega pockets are not historical, but has been tested by players without a larger then historical pocket GHC is toast.

1v1=2v1 is clearly a game destroyer and always has been all the better players know this other then a few fanboys and want it removed.

Tom Hunter would be VPed out be the end of March if this is a SD game as my last two have been.

And as t has been proven yes russians do take more losses and than axis side but those numbers which u continually states I and other have proven to be wrong.
As long as u keep holding on to inaccurate number numbers there is really no point in debating it.

For teh sake of every one else. First off on the soviet side use total casulty figurs. Including sick non combat casulties, and every thing else.

On the german side u continue to use "blütig verluste" which only includes direct combat related casulties, which doesnt not include for example sickness, frostbites, trenchfoot, non combat casulties and so on. The actaul when u use full number on the german side roughly twice as high as those u state else where.
Nor do u include axis allied numbers in the german figurs, but do by nature of as its those russian casulties caused directly and indirectly by axis allies is included in the russian numbers.

So ur numbers arent comparible there for the ratios are off and directly misleading.

Oh, been down this road so many times before, sorry for highjacking ur thread Tom but this is Pelton MO stating utterly misleading figurs to state his "case"

Rasmus

[Tom Hunter]

Rasmus

Thanks for a long and thoughtful post. I'm watching the Werhmarcht grow with much the same concerns about the game design that you have. We will see how it all turns out, but one thing is certain, it will not be something that was historically possible. [;)]

Don't worry about thread hijacking, I write the AAR to encourage discussion of the game, not just the AAR.

[rmonical]

Well lets see more examples, but im in no way surprised actually it so very predictable what happens in the rmonical AAR.

I did a lot of things wrong in '41 and even more in '42.

[Tom Hunter]

rmonical you may have done some things wrong, but the raw math is daunting no matter what you do. If the game is designed in a way that makes it likely the Soviet player will have 6 million men and the Germans 4 million, and a loss ratio of 2 Soviets for 1 German is built into the combat system, then the soviets are 2 million men shy. I'm not saying the loss ratio is built in at 2 to 1, but it should be built in at some level because it was there historically, and that may be creating a design problem. Or maybe its not, the game is complex to the point that it baffles many of the people playing it, and even very analytical players are missing large parts of what is going on.

I do plan on playing somewhat differently from the way you played in 1942, we'll see what happens. Thanks for posting your aar, its been informative.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

If the game is designed in a way that makes it likely the Soviet player will have 6 million men and the Germans 4 million, and a loss ratio of 2 Soviets for 1 German is built into the combat system, then the soviets are 2 million men shy. I'm not saying the loss ratio is built in at 2 to 1, but it should be built in at some level because it was there historically, and that may be creating a design problem. Or maybe its not, the game is complex to the point that it baffles many of the people playing it, and even very analytical players are missing large parts of what is going on.

I wouldnt say thats designed to be that way. The generally accepted until at leased half a year ago. Changes has been made since with some stuff going forth and back balance wise. Since AAR/interrest has vained apparently until recently there hasnt been alot of material to judge from.

Non the less as said of a half a year ago the accepted number u needed to have have was at leased 7 to 7.5m men come summer 42 as russian. To have any chance to stop / slow the inlarged german army against those that knew how to use it. That was certainly attainble in most cases. Ofc depending on how 41 went. U would in cases see ppl geting more if teh german did badly in 41.
On the other hand u also saw cases with less than 7m and when u start to get near 6m well ppl generally accepted that, that person was most likely in trouble.

So in most cases u could get higher than the 6m russian figur u mention. The way to achieve that was in many cases some form of utter force presevation ie running. As u cant rely on the in game reinforcement/replacements to sacrific "endless" number of troops and gain repalcements to make up for that. That forces a force presevation mentallity, which is quite the opposite of the historic, as ofc any one playing russian side as german side wants to win and ppl learned in order to survive 42 and the dynamics of 42 in game u needed a bigger than historic army.
Here in comes the problem. Im in no way opposed, quite the opposite, to getting a more historic feel for the 41 campaign which seems to be the general consensus ppl wants tho im not as certain what exactly it means is teh same to all. What i think is non sense is just substitude one set of problems with another set of problems.
If u dont get some more comprehensive thinking going. Acknowledging if making it harder/less running for russians in 41, making blizzard as done less harsh. U alter what will happen later on in this case 42 and as they dynamcis in 42 is alrdy off. All things given less german casulties and lost territoty by a mild blizzard rules plays directly into balancing comming out of the blizzard and the "faulty" dynmamics of teh 42 campaign all things given strengthen those issues. Some thing has to be done to this. Else u indeed end up sustituting one set of issues with anotehr set of issues and u havent IMO really made much progress.

Do ppl as russian then survive 42 and gets on the offensive as russians. Then the russian side gets to benefit of the same issues with the combat engine.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[rmonical]

rmonical you may have done some things wrong, but the raw math is daunting no matter what you do.

Soviets have a material and monpower advantage. In this case, my manpower problems meant I had an armaments surplus. I was more focused on keeping a plus balance in trucks than in deploying my tanks. I built too many rifle corps and not enough cavalry and tank corps. Given my positive armaments situation and personnel problems, I should have built a lot more cavalry corps filled with tank battalions. I stopped at 5 tank corps. I should have built 10-15.

I might have achieved a draw.

Hooooper has shown me that even on the defensive as Soviet, I should accept more low odds attacks.

[Tom Hunter]

I think I need to keep Saper222 moving slowly in the South, so I plan a fighting withdrawal. To prep for the Summer I’ve been building defensive lines and holding points. I don’t think I can fight in the open, but fighting in trench lines worked fairly well in 1941, and the Red Army is bigger and more powerful than it was then. I’m also playing a lot better, which is probably the biggest change in the game since the start.

There are no factories on this map, further North everything is gone except some of the factories in Saratov and Gorky, but even those two are mostly empty and will be fully evacuated by the end of Mud maybe earlier.

[Tom Hunter]

In the center I destroyed the German rail net as far as Kharkov, I don’t think Saper222 is going to push here, and I am a bit light in troops forward, so I am pulling back. There is some possibility he will try to bag my retreating troops (he got 1 cavalry corps this turn) by moving into the open space East of Kharkov or due east into the screening force. He has several motorized inf divisions there, I do not know the location of most of his pnz divisions. I’ve got one of my better Cav armies rested at a point where he will have used 20mps, I think that will be enough to keep the situation under control for a turn if he tries something.

Farther back you can see the fort lines taking shape. In additions to the North – South lines across Saper222s front I am putting in a few East West lines to see if I can restrict the movement of his pnzs when they break through.

All these lines are started in the expectation that the main fronts will move back into them over the course of the Summer.

[Tom Hunter]

In the center I am pulling back to the rail head across most of the front, but staying in contact at Moscow where I have troops in the suburbs and lots of L2 forts. I expect to retreat here too, but maybe not yet. I’ve loaded the area up with fighters to see if I can shift the air battles my way for a turn or two. Saper222 has been winning the air battle for a few turns, but I was winning it for a few turns before that, so we will see if this moves things my way.

Over all I am experimenting with these hexes to see if the combination of lots of reserves, L2 forts and big air commitment can mess up the German advance. The rule book says brigades are more likely to commit to a reserve action than divisions, so I am moving in strong brigades and reorganizing the armies a bit in this area as well.

I figure I have a few turns of snow to experiment and then some turns of mud to recover if the experiment goes poorly.

[M60A3TTS]

When clear weather arrives, your cavalry corps will be too close to the front. You should be prepared to back them off. Also, you should merge all available cavalry divisions into corps now. Give them all a couple sapper regiments.

[Tom Hunter]

In the far North I have been making guard units by killing Fins. I’ve been pulling some of these divisions out and replacing them with Stavka reserves to keep my Guard number growing. I’ve also got at least a few good moral infantry units, and as the last map shows I’ve got one army resting in the rear, and should soon have one or two others. Over all I am late to the game of creating guards, and there are only 15 guards divisions on the map, I’ve got another 10 that are likely to convert soon, and more are climbing the ladder because of my success in the North.

The Fins are down below 260,000 troops and get hit by a few hard attacks per turn that Saper222 seems unable (or perhaps to bored) to stop. I’m sending in a new army or two to cover the flank and going to continue pushing in the direction of Leningrad. I don’t really expect to take it, but I have local superiority in everything, and I do think this will pull some German troops North at some point.

[Tom Hunter]

Finally the ground combat report. To my great delight I finally had a bombing mission that looks like a German bombing mission. I've been playing air more conservatively the past few turns because Saper222s deployments were superior to mine starting in February. I've been reorganizing my air to go back on the offensive, but that has been complicated by the disbanding of the SAD airbases. I think I will be ready to hit Saper222 again in T38, if all goes well I will have the advantage while he moves air around to counter for a couple of turns, and then we will start the process again.

By the end of the game I suspect we will both be running our airforces at a faster tempo than many of the games I see in other AARs.

[Tom Hunter]

@M60 Thanks, I am in the process of pulling back, and its snow then mud then clear, so there is a lot of time between now and clear. How far back do you keep the cav? any screenshots you can share?