The Sky’s the Limit- PBEM GC 41 jubjub (Axis) vs. M60A3TTS (Soviet)

[M60A3TTS]

The limits of the Axis advance

[M60A3TTS]

Week 89 28 February 1943

The Axis retreat to the Taman Peninsula continues.




Farther north, the Bryansk Front approaches Kursk and Southwestern Front creates a new bridgehead over the Donets.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 90 7 March 1943

Time for a fresh set of pics

















The Front



In the far south, the enemy is expected to completely withdraw to Kerch in the next week or two. The port of Novorossiysk is taken.

[M60A3TTS]

This week the Voronezh Front assisted by elements of Bryansk Front go into action between Kursk and Belgorod. This heralds a new set of offensive actions designed to liberate Belgorod, Kursk, and ultimately Kharkov. Expanded multi-front operations will follow.



The newly reorganized cavalry-tank forces of 5th Shock Army do not disappoint. Forward Red Marines!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNPDlRL9GsY



A 50 mile gap is opened up as exploiting elements of 4th and 5th Shock Armies move forward. The defending 386th Motorized Division that starts the battle with 56 fighting vehicles is reduced to 2 by the end of the week.

[ncc1701e]

Thank you for this AAR. I continue to read it silently and with a certain admiration.

[horza66]

Great AAR, learning a great deal from your work.

I know that, understandably, you are employing the VVS en masse to inflict casualties on the Germans. But I was wondering what your experience was of the ability to improve the pilot skill levels via flying missions. My general impression is that flying missions has little impact - rather that each pilot has a "potential" ability, and that is revealed fairly quickly over the initial missions.

I'm interested in whether careful management of the VVS fighter arm could lead to the generation of a few air "corps" of higher quality that might be able to fight on more equal terms with the Luftwaffe in late '43 or '44. Essentially advancing the date when the air superiority and then supremacy is achieved.

[M60A3TTS]

Thank you for this AAR. I continue to read it silently and with a certain admiration.

You're welcome. It is a rather quiet audience that I play for, but that's ok. So much of what folks wanted to say has been said and many of those have moved on to other things. We will continue to crank out updates until there are none left. There's no quit in either of us to date, and hopefully that continues.

[M60A3TTS]

Great AAR, learning a great deal from your work.

I know that, understandably, you are employing the VVS en masse to inflict casualties on the Germans. But I was wondering what your experience was of the ability to improve the pilot skill levels via flying missions. My general impression is that flying missions has little impact - rather that each pilot has a "potential" ability, and that is revealed fairly quickly over the initial missions.

I'm interested in whether careful management of the VVS fighter arm could lead to the generation of a few air "corps" of higher quality that might be able to fight on more equal terms with the Luftwaffe in late '43 or '44. Essentially advancing the date when the air superiority and then supremacy is achieved.

You are quite correct that here, flying missions which would in real life generate flying experience has little to no effect in game. My observations of so many air to air battles over time has convinced me that some Luftwaffe pilots gain experience in combat, but the VVS ones not so much. The poor survival rate of the VVS pilots simply stems from a national morale level of 45 for a good chunk of the game that only improves in 1943. Even then an NM level of 50 and 55 for guards that kicks in during the Spring of 1943 does little to close the gap. We have to consider that roughly 90-95% of the Soviet fighter pilots have experience levels less than 80 during this time and remain no match for the 10-20% of LW pilots with experience over 90.

It is only towards the end of 1944 that Soviet guards fighter units actually achieve an NM level equal to the Luftwaffe, but by then the game is largely decided. It is for that reason that cultivating a group of highly experienced Soviet units is not really a practical goal.

Obviously this AAR took a sharp turn away from air matters, but that is for the most part related to the downturn of activity during winter. The air content will be returning soon enough though, so stay tuned.

[Rexzapper]

You're welcome. It is a rather quiet audience that I play for, but that's ok.

Many of us continue to enjoy every turn... silently. But we're here

[tm1]

As a PVE player that lets the AI control the Air War in my games I am still keenly interested in manual conduct of Air operations so please continue to post about said Air operations as it may get me to attempt playing the the Air component in time.
On a general note I am also looking forward to seeing how this campaign ends its looking like its going to be close, your Don Bass operation looks impressive so far, lets see if your opponent will try to mount a " backhand counter offensive " worthy of Manstein.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 91 14 March 1943

North of Kharkov, General Zhukov sends Galanin's 2nd Shock Army into a direct assault on Belgorod. The city is liberated while attacks south of Kharkov peel away a light screen of Rumanian forces. At the same time, General Meretskov has Bryansk Front in action at Kursk, and the city is rapidly being threatened with envelopment. Southwest of Kursk, General Koniev is sending in cavalry-tank forces of his Voronezh Front to further develop the situation.



Air reconnaissance helps identify the exact location of potential German reserve units. There is one hex targeted for ground attack, but due to weather conditions, only a few hundred casualties are inflicted with a similar number of planes lost.



Back down to the Taman Peninsula, the curtain has all but fallen.


General V. Kuznetsov of 57th Army reports Axis forces have all been evacuated to the west. It only remains for him to occupy Tamanskaya to complete the Caucasus operations. Marshal Timoshenko of the Transcaucasus Front dutifully informs Moscow that he is now free to redeploy his headquarters to a new theater in two weeks time. To everyone that knows him, Timoshenko is not one to enjoy the thought of being shunted off to a region of complete inaction, but these orders come straight from the NKO (State Commissariat for Defense). Perhaps Stalin will not keep him away from the fight for too long. Marshal Budyenny is perhaps the most disappointed that his long time associate is being relegated to this remote command, but there is a bit of good news. Marshal Shaposhnikov has been ordered to Moscow next week to consult with Stalin on future operations of his Don Front. At least there will be one fellow marshal back in the Kremlin to help recall the old times. Marshal Kulik for his part has been gone for quite a while now, with Stalin apparently none to interested in recalling him to service.

Back to the air campaign, a new list of guards fighter regiments has been released. This will be adding +5 NM/experience to all of these units. With the arrival of improved combat aircraft this may help with the air war soon.

[Q-Ball]

M60, I am definitely following your AAR, and appreciate the detailed breakdown of VVS Management....alot of clicking, but it takes a village!

Some general questions if you will indulge me:

1. You have a heavy focus on GROUND ATTACK; what are your typical Altitude, Day, and Mission settings?
2. How do you fill-out on-map, front-line units that need replacements? PRI? Does that dilute pilot quality?
3. How do you use all the Soviet Heavy Bombers, like IL-4? More Ground Attack? I noticed that early you park the entire Long Range Air Command in the Reserves, so initially not at all it seems......it looked like your GA attacks early were IL-2, and Su2/SB2 until those types run out

[M60A3TTS]

M60, I am definitely following your AAR, and appreciate the detailed breakdown of VVS Management....alot of clicking, but it takes a village!

Some general questions if you will indulge me:

1. You have a heavy focus on GROUND ATTACK; what are your typical Altitude, Day, and Mission settings?
2. How do you fill-out on-map, front-line units that need replacements? PRI? Does that dilute pilot quality?
3. How do you use all the Soviet Heavy Bombers, like IL-4? More Ground Attack? I noticed that early you park the entire Long Range Air Command in the Reserves, so initially not at all it seems......it looked like your GA attacks early were IL-2, and Su2/SB2 until those types run out

I gave you #1 on your other post, but for those who didn't notice it's usually 6k and attacks over 3 days with 2-3 strikes each.

Replacements are not too much of an issue until regiments expand from 30-32 in April 1943. Prior to that you can be pretty liberal. Then after expansion it is necessary to reduce how many regiments can get trained pilots.

Heavy and medium bombers not seeing a great deal of action. Some strikes are useful to spread out the defensive fighter coverage to discourage my opponent from excessive concentration, and that will be seen later.

No shortage of LBs though, with about 5,000 in the pool. Then again I have 7,000 IL-2s and 6,000 U-2s squirreled away too.

[horza66]

Great AAR, learning a great deal from your work.

I know that, understandably, you are employing the VVS en masse to inflict casualties on the Germans. But I was wondering what your experience was of the ability to improve the pilot skill levels via flying missions. My general impression is that flying missions has little impact - rather that each pilot has a "potential" ability, and that is revealed fairly quickly over the initial missions.

I'm interested in whether careful management of the VVS fighter arm could lead to the generation of a few air "corps" of higher quality that might be able to fight on more equal terms with the Luftwaffe in late '43 or '44. Essentially advancing the date when the air superiority and then supremacy is achieved.

You are quite correct that here, flying missions which would in real life generate flying experience has little to no effect in game. My observations of so many air to air battles over time has convinced me that some Luftwaffe pilots gain experience in combat, but the VVS ones not so much. The poor survival rate of the VVS pilots simply stems from a national morale level of 45 for a good chunk of the game that only improves in 1943. Even then an NM level of 50 and 55 for guards that kicks in during the Spring of 1943 does little to close the gap. We have to consider that roughly 90-95% of the Soviet fighter pilots have experience levels less than 80 during this time and remain no match for the 10-20% of LW pilots with experience over 90.

It is only towards the end of 1944 that Soviet guards fighter units actually achieve an NM level equal to the Luftwaffe, but by then the game is largely decided. It is for that reason that cultivating a group of highly experienced Soviet units is not really a practical goal.

Obviously this AAR took a sharp turn away from air matters, but that is for the most part related to the downturn of activity during winter. The air content will be returning soon enough though, so stay tuned.

I've continued some experimentation (just with PvE) and can confirm that flying missions where damage is done does significantly improved pilot experience. If you can keep your IL-2s alive, their stats significantly improve. For fighters it's of couse more problematic. However I have managed to get one unit of Yak-7Bs into the 70s purely from experience (yes, gained mostly against Rumanians), with five 90+ skill pilots, and success breeds success: they take fewer casualties than others (usually 0) in their group, and score well. They can handle German opposition now.

However, the real question is if this could be managed at scale, and then against human opposition. The AI Luftwaffe does do massive fighter sweeps, like a human would, so it is not completely unrealistic. One bad week can trash everything you've built. It would be a question of constant shifting of focus, looking for soft targets, then merging the best groups together to produce a decent cadre - using some of the tricks discussed here. Will comment again if I think there's a possible way to make it work.

[FortTell]

Back to the air campaign, a new list of guards fighter regiments has been released. This will be adding +5 NM/experience to all of these units. With the arrival of improved combat aircraft this may help with the air war soon.

Do you just get Guards air units historically or do you have to earn them somehow?

[M60A3TTS]

Back to the air campaign, a new list of guards fighter regiments has been released. This will be adding +5 NM/experience to all of these units. With the arrival of improved combat aircraft this may help with the air war soon.

Do you just get Guards air units historically or do you have to earn them somehow?

100% scripted. You can't earn them.

[M60A3TTS]

21 March, 09:45am. Tatsinskaya Airfield

Aboard the Li-2 transport, Marshal of the Soviet Union Boris Mikhailovitch Shaposhnikov was having a particularly difficult time with his tremors. These days, his personal staff were quite used to dealing with the ailing marshal. Few doubted that he could manage his affliction for short periods of time, but the commander of the Don Front clearly was in steady decline. For his part, Shaposhnikov was hopeful that a more physically able man would be taking his place soon. This Stalin had personally promised him in a recent phone conversation. Perhaps a posting as commandant of a high level military academy would be agreeable. But for now, with the neighboring Southwestern Front of Nikolai Vatutin in motion to the west, Stalin hesitated to agree to any command changes at this all-important time.

The pilot of the Li-2, Colonel Lavrenti Grishkin, was eager to get aloft. The Germans were all too close to Tansinskaya, and any sudden appearance by the Luftwaffe could not be discounted. Two Yak-9 fighters waited behind the Li-2, ready to escort the transport on it’s trip to Moscow. Unfortunately this day, one of the Yak-9s had developed carburetor issues that mechanics had needed the last hour to correct.

The control tower at Tatsinskaya received confirmation that the immediate area was free of any activity and Tatia-4, as Shaposhnikov’s flight had been designated, was cleared for departure. Colonel Grishin opened the throttle to full on both engines, released the wheel brakes and the Li-2 rolled down the runway, gradually rising into the sky. Both Yak-9s in trail were in the process of following Tatia-4.

Then without warning, a pair of Bf-109s at treetop level appeared. Neither German pilot had the slightest idea what they had inadvertently stumbled upon. The flight leader, Lieutenant Otto Goerdler thought that perhaps they had come across a fat bird that was about to make some sort of milk run but in any case he was all to aware that he had little time for action. Ordering his wingman to keep an eye out for enemy fighters, Goerdler lined up for an attack run on the Li-2. His 20mm MG151 was quick into action as the Li-2 was in a helpless position. Cannon fire tore into the starboard engine, and the Li-2 careened to the right as Grishkin lost control and moments later tumbled to the ground. His job done, Goerdler made a sharp turn with his wingman and quickly exited the area. There was no time for celebrations as at any moment they might both be taken under fire. At least Goerdler would have confirmation from his wingman that there was one less transport in the inventory of the Bolsheviks.

Within thirty minutes of the incident, the message of this tragedy reached the Kremlin. Marshal Budyenny had no immediate answer when Stalin asked the Chief of Staff who should replace Shaposhnikov. General Antonov, who was with both Budyenny and Stalin at this time suggested Colonel General Konstantin Rokossovsky might be suitable. Stalin replied that Zhukov should be consulted on the matter. Also, Beria should be informed. Obviously person or persons unknown had leaked the information of the flight to the Germans. Beria would be responsible for providing names, and quickly.


This week, heavy rain across the front means little action elsewhere. A half-dozen German attacks do some damage but no major actions with the weather what it is.

[Q-Ball]

Great AAR as always!

M60, I am posting a couple details air questions in another thread so not to hyjack your AAR; but I think your detailed description of how to handle the early VVS was overtaken by subsequent updates, if I am reading it right? I'll put in my Red Army thread....

[M60A3TTS]

Great AAR, learning a great deal from your work.

I know that, understandably, you are employing the VVS en masse to inflict casualties on the Germans. But I was wondering what your experience was of the ability to improve the pilot skill levels via flying missions. My general impression is that flying missions has little impact - rather that each pilot has a "potential" ability, and that is revealed fairly quickly over the initial missions.

I'm interested in whether careful management of the VVS fighter arm could lead to the generation of a few air "corps" of higher quality that might be able to fight on more equal terms with the Luftwaffe in late '43 or '44. Essentially advancing the date when the air superiority and then supremacy is achieved.

You are quite correct that here, flying missions which would in real life generate flying experience has little to no effect in game. My observations of so many air to air battles over time has convinced me that some Luftwaffe pilots gain experience in combat, but the VVS ones not so much. The poor survival rate of the VVS pilots simply stems from a national morale level of 45 for a good chunk of the game that only improves in 1943. Even then an NM level of 50 and 55 for guards that kicks in during the Spring of 1943 does little to close the gap. We have to consider that roughly 90-95% of the Soviet fighter pilots have experience levels less than 80 during this time and remain no match for the 10-20% of LW pilots with experience over 90.

It is only towards the end of 1944 that Soviet guards fighter units actually achieve an NM level equal to the Luftwaffe, but by then the game is largely decided. It is for that reason that cultivating a group of highly experienced Soviet units is not really a practical goal.

Obviously this AAR took a sharp turn away from air matters, but that is for the most part related to the downturn of activity during winter. The air content will be returning soon enough though, so stay tuned.

I've continued some experimentation (just with PvE) and can confirm that flying missions where damage is done does significantly improved pilot experience. If you can keep your IL-2s alive, their stats significantly improve. For fighters it's of couse more problematic. However I have managed to get one unit of Yak-7Bs into the 70s purely from experience (yes, gained mostly against Rumanians), with five 90+ skill pilots, and success breeds success: they take fewer casualties than others (usually 0) in their group, and score well. They can handle German opposition now.

However, the real question is if this could be managed at scale, and then against human opposition. The AI Luftwaffe does do massive fighter sweeps, like a human would, so it is not completely unrealistic. One bad week can trash everything you've built. It would be a question of constant shifting of focus, looking for soft targets, then merging the best groups together to produce a decent cadre - using some of the tricks discussed here. Will comment again if I think there's a possible way to make it work.

Managing what you have achieved at any scale over time would seem to be a prodigious undertaking.

The Rumanians can't provide an endless amount of fodder for the VVS and sooner or later an Axis player will swap in some Luftwaffe pilots so that you are made to pay for your bullying tactics.

Getting fighter experience increased in any scale may be possible in other ways which perhaps your experimentation will uncover. I've had no real success and have tried quite a lot of things in the many attempts. Here are a few observations:

The manual briefly covers this notion that a pilot skill that is found in an air combat result screen provides this same level of skill, experience, call it what you will, to each pilot in his flight of what will typically be from 4-12 aircraft. That skill number then is matched up against a similar flight of opposing aircraft and an air battle ensues.

I don't believe that this skill thing has ever worked as described. The evidence can be seen in any number of combat activities where not only does a flight of Soviet aircraft with a skill level in the 90s not only fail to shoot down any LW aircraft, they don't even do any damage. You would have to believe if 12 planes each with a pilot of experience/skill of 94 goes up against a LW flight with skill 96 or 98, there is going to be a bullet hole somewhere in an FW-190 by the end. Also, if you look at the combat records of the individual pilots in a unit with a high experience pilot, you may see that pilot with 4-5 kills on occasion. That's fine. But if that pilot is supposed to impart their experience to others in his flight, should not the pilots immediately below him in experience level have similar kill numbers? The thing is, they don't. They have 1 or maybe 2 kills by comparison and to me is very telling.

Now perhaps another factor is involved. A group of planes flying at a higher altitude is supposed to get some sort of drop down on your opponent advantage. The thing is, the Soviets when they have a superior altitude don't seem to fair any better. Here is a battle where despite pretty good experience and the height advantage, the Soviets lose at a rate of 5-1.



Note also that in this example 52 of 60 La-5F fighter bombers, which are supposed to be decent enough aircraft at lower altitudes, did zero damage. No bullet holes. Nothing. On the other hand, if the drop down effect is significant, that doesn't bode well for the entire La-5/7 line which specifically are designed for low altitude air combat.

Well maybe maneuverability had a part in this. The LW planes involved have a maneuver rating of 35. The La-5Fs are 34. Maybe the combination of pilot experience and aircraft maneuverability has a significant part in the decision. Unfortunately for the Soviets, they won't see their first plane with a maneuver rating of 35 until October 1943 with the La-5FN.

Then we come to the question of how do pilots get selected for a mission. I mentioned early on in the AAR that every pilot in a unit has to be given an opportunity to fly before your best pilot gets another chance for combat. So what happens if your expanded 34 plane fighter regiment of 1943 loses 16 pilots in battle? You maybe get replacements with experience in the 30s, 40s, and 50s who are promptly going to die on their first mission and as this situation is repeated, you find yourself soon facing a potential fighter shortage. You can't train these poor pilots in the reserve, they come with every unit to offset the better ones you received. You can't train them to any degree away from the front, so their only path is to succeed in A2A combat, where pilots under 50 experience will kill one aircraft for every thirty to fifty that pilots having experience over fifty do. Meanwhile they just die in droves.

I long ago guessed that is the intended path of the designers in order to replicate the 80,000 or so planes the VVS lost in the war and there is a degree of frustration that you seem tied to that path with little recourse to improve on the results. The only real path I have in this game is just accept the one-sided A2A battles and instead focus on how many ground casualties can be inflicted. And that can be a contribution on the road to Berlin.

[horza66]

Quick warning to those following: for the scripted Guards promotions, I did not receive any. Most of the VVS was in the reserve when it was due to happen, so that may be the issue. Not raised a bug report yet - will go back to an earlier save and see if bringing them out of the reserve makes a difference.

Gaining experience: it is a pickle, and I take well your point that the VVS did indeed lose 80k planes over the course of the war, so that's the driver behind the engine. (I have similar issues trying to lose enough tanks). My theory was that you get a lot of fighter-bombers, many of them rubbish (I never use Lagg-3s normally). So when I got some Hurri-2Cs it occurred to me - why not try flying second tier FBs as actual bombers? They won't touch a German fighter, but might earn an experience point from dropping a bomb on a truck.

Sadly it turned out 1943 is too late for these experiments - flak is too strong, so even if you survive the fighter sweep, casualties are too high from flak for enough survivors to gain xp. I suspect that starting this in '41 might lead to better results. (I have a lot of IL-2 squadrons with 70-80 xp levels, so it's not inconceivable).

I've also tried the Air Superiority mission without much success. My thought there was what if we tried the highly inefficient disband method in order to get a few units of decent VVS AS fighters. They would get worn down, so would need to be carefully used, but in theory if AS is effective it might give the larger fighter groups a chance.

The other option is to bring down Luftwaffe experience as we try to raise that of the VVS. Not many tools to do this with in '41, but from '42 the Army can bring a lot of AA guns to bear via Corps attachments. Given the Luftwaffe loses more to flak and ops than A2A usually, it makes sense to reinforce this. Likely to lead to the German player turning off GS, but that's a win in itself.

In the final analysis I think your approach to spend the VVS to kill Germans will probably turn out to be the right one. There's probably a window of opportunity against a German player who does not focus much on the Luftwaffe (are there any? ) giving the VVS a chance to build up xp. So a possible tool in the Soviet toolset, but fairly easy to shut down. A real shame as I feel as you do: there *ought* to be a way to use the VVS as a more competitive and effective force.