Incoming!

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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mdiehl
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RE: Incoming!

Post by mdiehl »

Bringing this back to the actual topic I think that a 6.5% hit rate is actually not at all inconsistent with IJN doctrine.


The problem is that the 6.5% (ish, I got a slightly lower number when I tried to replicate the result) is not consistent across battles. It's only THAT HIGH because there are several engagements with extremely high hit rates. These outliers consistently occurred when the USN was not aware that they'd been detected. They're very useful outliers because they tell you alot about the circumstances in which a torpedo attack can be really devastating. You have to detect the enemy within reasonable torpedo range (less than 8.000 yards-ish for the IJN, 6,000 for the USN), with sufficient time for a firing solution, and with sufficient more lead time for your torps to be in the water BEFORE the enemy starts to maneuver as a reaction to your existence on the battlefield.

The modal hit rate (the mode is the most frequent outcome) is zero hits and the median (if you splut the distribution into two halves, the one in the middle of the distribution is the median) is also zero hits. So unless that Decisive Battle occurs at night at less than (generously adding 25%) 10,000 yards against a USN TF that doesn't know the Japanese are there (or doesn't think they've been detected) the decisive battle isn't going to be a success.

The second thing to note is that after Tassafaronga (which was generally a tactical fubar on the US adm's part) and in some instances before it became standard practice for US ships to maneuver to avoid presumed torpedo launches when engaging the Japanese. So the necessary conditions (night, surprise, in torpedo range) were only likely to occur a couple of times anyhow, before the US "catches on." And it's only likely in 1942, because US radar improvements made it most likely that the USN would always know that the Japanese were closing to torpedo range after 1942 (excepting Japanese subs running submerged).
given their purposes a 6.5% hit rate from long range actually achieved their purposes

They're not going to get 6.5% from long range. They're only going to get 6.5% ON AVERAGE if they surprise the USN in a couple of battles at ranges less than 10K yards. At long range their average will be alot lower. And the modal hit rate will still be zero. That is, in most battles, all torpedoes that the Japanese launch will all miss.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
mdiehl
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RE: Incoming!

Post by mdiehl »

Come on mdiel, that's insensitive!

Well, maybe I was a bit Gruff!
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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AW1Steve
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RE: Incoming!

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
Come on mdiel, that's insensitive!

Well, maybe I was a bit Gruff!
[&o][&o][&o][:D]
Dili
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RE: Incoming!

Post by Dili »

If you fire your torpedos at 15km obviously you will get less hits. If the doutrine says to fire at 2km there will be more, all other things equal.
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castor troy
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RE: Incoming!

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
You´re making a fool of yourself and I don´t mean that offensive at all.

No, I'm not. Just noting that there are empirical realities and those who dismiss them. You know, trolls like you. You meant it to be offensive, because you are a troll. And now, green buttoned.


lol, now I´m trolling... I didn´t mean it offensive. I do mean that offensive: you seem to be an idiot... clearly able to judge that from your post. You´re dumb enough to do the second post in this thread coming up with empirical realities pissing on people that didn´t even say something.

That´s just like going out of the house screaming into the road: HEY! You are all stupid... lol, you´re absolutely an idiot.

Am I allowed to say that? Guess not. But how do I respond to someone calling me a troll... Well, I don´t care.

I must be an idiot myself as I´ve alsways thought he would be a heck of a tough guy because he always insisted in things like it would be the bible, no matter if a hundred priest would tell him that he´s interpreting the bible the wrong way. And that even made him kind of symphatic, not because I´ve agreed with him, but because he stood by what he thought. Well, he obviously is just an idiot... oops, repeat mode...[8|]
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AW1Steve
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RE: Incoming!

Post by AW1Steve »

Common guys, lets cool it with the name calling. Step back, cool off and take a deep breath. Think about what you are fighting about and ask yourself, "Is this issue so important, so vital, that I'm willing to get personal and maybe get bannished for a while?". Frankly , does anyone outside of this particular thread really care how accurrate the Japanese torpedos where ?(exempting people who where on the receiving end of them that is). Seriously, if you were talking a a person on this subject , would you feel passionate enough to throw a punch at him over this? Of course not! So why not step back , be reasonable, and let the issue die? You surely can't convice the other fellow, so why not do something more fun and profitable? And if you can't deal with it , "green-button it". You both have given me a lot of help and information in the past , and I'd hate to see either of you banned over such a silly issue. [:)]
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castor troy
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RE: Incoming!

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Common guys, lets cool it with the name calling. Step back, cool off and take a deep breath. Think about what you are fighting about and ask yourself, "Is this issue so important, so vital, that I'm willing to get personal and maybe get bannished for a while?". Frankly , does anyone outside of this particular thread really care how accurrate the Japanese torpedos where ?(exempting people who where on the receiving end of them that is). Seriously, if you were talking a a person on this subject , would you feel passionate enough to throw a punch at him over this? Of course not! So why not step back , be reasonable, and let the issue die? You surely can't convice the other fellow, so why not do something more fun and profitable? And if you can't deal with it , "green-button it". You both have given me a lot of help and information in the past , and I'd hate to see either of you banned over such a silly issue. [:)]


like mentioned before, I don´t have anything to say about the LL issue. All I said is that I (first) found it funny that someone posts something like mdiehl did on post no TWO of this thread and again, I didn´t even mean my reply offensively. I do mean my last post absolutely offensive though. Why not? If a dog jumps around in the street I can surely laugh about it, having no problem at all that the dog is jumping around. If he comes along and poo poos on my shoes, I will give him a kick.

Sorry AW1Steve, I don´t see why I should step back if someone punches me for no reason at all... knowing that as a grown up I should just laugh about it in front of my TFT, shaking my head and just think by myself: what an idiot. Obviously I´m either an idiot too, not grown up enough or just too pissed off.[8|]

Too many valuable long term members left this forum because people were pissing them off and they never really punched back... they just left and that´s not something I think (is) was great... while the people that usually pissed others off just staid, trying to find other people to aim at...
Ursa MAior
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RE: Incoming!

Post by Ursa MAior »

wow. I am gone for some time but the show goes on. That shows how little potatoes we are. 
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Art by the amazing Dixie
mdiehl
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RE: Incoming!

Post by mdiehl »

Think about what you are fighting about and ask yourself, "Is this issue so important, so vital, that I'm willing to get personal and maybe get bannished for a while?".


Who's fighting? I'm talking torpedoes. Castor is trying to see how much insult he can get away with if he says he's not trying to be insulting. The green button was meant for "guys like him" and I'm good with using it. Ask yourself if he's said anything about torpedoes yet or is he still trying to hump my leg?
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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castor troy
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RE: Incoming!

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
Think about what you are fighting about and ask yourself, "Is this issue so important, so vital, that I'm willing to get personal and maybe get bannished for a while?".


Who's fighting? I'm talking torpedoes. Castor is trying to see how much insult he can get away with if he says he's not trying to be insulting. The green button was meant for "guys like him" and I'm good with using it. Ask yourself if he's said anything about torpedoes yet or is he still trying to hump my leg?

I´m honoured to be green buttoned by you. it´s a pity you can´t gb yourself, would help you to come along with your pitiable life in your pitiable world...

I have yet to say anything about torpedos, but I keep insisting that this "guy" is totally nuts... oh, I changed my wording for him... lol, when have I the last time dealt with someone who´s so off...

and knowing how "guys like him" really are, he can´t resist from un-green button me anyway just to read how im humping his leg... GREEN BUTTON ME AGAIN, QUICK!!! poor little fellow, but hey, he´s the one that has been insisting for years that a F4F-4 could outturn a Zero in every given situation... lol, I should not have become battling someone who obviously is on the run from gerontopsychiatry...

he´s talking about insults, while his signature is an insult to everyone that doesn´t agree with him anyway, as is post no 2 of this thread.
CV Zuikaku
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RE: Incoming!

Post by CV Zuikaku »

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]
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castor troy
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RE: Incoming!

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


because he´s one of the very few people here that is what some people (like a couple of dumb European like me for example) have called guys that can´t respect anything not being American made. I don´t know why but it is like this. And I´m saying he´s one of the few.

It is German (Nazi German), it is crap. It is Japanese, it must be even more crap. Crappy tactics, crappy strategies, crappy soldiers, crappy aircraft, crappiest ships, all just shit on Earth. [8|] The good guys won the war and I´m happy about that, even if I wouldn´t know that I should be happy if the German would have won the war as then I could now be like mdiehl insisting everything the British, American and Russian built was crap.
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AW1Steve
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RE: Incoming!

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]
CV Zuikaku
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RE: Incoming!

Post by CV Zuikaku »

But even fan of statistics shoul'd know that if they were so crappy and had 0% hit rates, and that their crappy ships blew and suffered from spontanious self combustion- the US woul'd won the war by mid '42 at the worst scenario...
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castor troy
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RE: Incoming!

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]


Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]
CV Zuikaku
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RE: Incoming!

Post by CV Zuikaku »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]

Sorry. It was not my intention to do so. I'm also slightly off balance cause of AE being delayed a bit... again [;)]
mdiehl
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RE: Incoming!

Post by mdiehl »

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment?

I'm not particularly eager to fight about anything, but I'll stand by any claim that is best supported by facts, and I don't back down just because someone feels that the facts are not as they should be.

Is there a problem here? The modal and median hit rates of Type 93As was 0% (per battle), and the mean hit rate around 6%. My position is that these measures of central tendency reflect the realities of the range of historically possible usages of the weapon, and therefore any good consim will produce a similar distribution. If we agree, then there's nothing to argue about. If someone disagrees, they have the choice of demonstrating that the numbers derived by Czernecki are inaccurate and that some other set of numbers is more accurate, or else they have to claim that the stats don't matter. If the stats don't matter, then all one is left with is competing subjective claims.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
CV Zuikaku
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RE: Incoming!

Post by CV Zuikaku »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]


Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]

Well, I'm not a native english speaker, and my english is very crappy, but I hope it was not insulting... sorry if I was...
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AW1Steve
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RE: Incoming!

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]


Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]


Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]

I find it very much so. But I still feel that there is no reason why educated adults need to resort to name calling and getting personal. Your English is Outstanding! There are several native English speakers on the forum that I seldom understand, but your English is impeccable. (It makes me ashamed that I speak no German, Spanish,Croatian or any of the other languages of some of our forum brothers).

I know that you and Mdiel don't get along. That's fine , some people just rub each other the wrong way. But personal attacks will get you both banned. And the moderators have been concerntrating on AE, so a lot of poor behavior has gone unpunished. But AE is done, they are just waiting for the printer to do his job. So the policemen are back. Please mind the insults. Because they will be. And both you and Mdiel are assets to the forum. So play nice , or ignore each other. Please. I for one , don't want to see either of you banned. [:(]
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AW1Steve
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RE: Incoming!

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve





Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]


Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]

Well, I'm not a native english speaker, and my english is very crappy, but I hope it was not insulting... sorry if I was...

Yeah , I'm afraid it was. [8|]If your not sure about your English , please fell free to PM me, or one of the other forum brothers who speak English as a primary language. [:)]
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